10 ms·

In Venezuela, life has gone from bad to worse. And the world has quit noticing

90 points by petethomas 8y ago

twblalock 8y ago
The world still notices. I've recently seen a number of articles about the protests and the opposition leader Juan Guaido. In fact the New York Times published an op-ed piece by him fairly recently.
- auto4ppl 8y ago
  Yes, there's been an enormous propaganda push to legitimize a future U.S. intervention - either a direct invasion, or igniting a full-blown civil war by arming right-wing paramilitaries, as was the standard operating procedure throughout the 80's.
  - pfisch 8y ago
    The inflation rate is 2688670%, they are refusing aid, they are having widespread electricity outages and food shortages, it seems like their leader has become a despot. At what point is it reasonable for an outside intervention?
    - danemacaulay 8y ago
      the aid is a charade :)
      - pfisch 8y ago
        Even if it is, which I doubt, that is like the least important thing that I listed.
        crispinb 8y ago
        Probably true, but let's face it, there are few good actors in this story. The Venezuelan government is not remotely interested in the actual welfare of its citizens. The US foreign policy establishment is concerned as always only with Empire (the aid story is a lie: https://theintercept.com/2019/02/20/regime-change-we-can-believe-in-the-u-s-agenda-in-venezuela-haiti-and-egypt/ https://theintercept.com/2019/02/20/regime-change-we-can-bel...). The nation itself is riven. Picking a 'side' here could not possibly be done in good faith. And thinking that armed citizens would improve matters is beyond absurd.
        rjf72 8y ago
        I completely agree with you, with one exception. It's easy to see the absurdity of an armed population against a government with a military at its back. Of course the United States was founded by this very contradiction in intuition, but a more modern event is probably a better example. We destroyed Iraq without difficulty, yet never managed to control it. The full force of the US military backed by literally billions of dollars a day, and the best training money can buy, was unable to stabilize control against disparate groups of poorly trained, poorly funded, insurgents armed with little more than 50s eras rifles and some rudimentary homemade explosives. Think about how remarkable it is that these disparate individuals managed to force our military to huddle into small isolated 'green zones'. The point here is that there's a difference between destroying a location and controlling it. Of course an armed population is not going to stop aerial bombardment and mass destruction, but at the same time it's practically impossible to control a territory when there is a hostile armed population. And there are also morale issues. The government doesn't own the military. Even the military doesn't own the military. The military is made up of real people who, though trained to act as a group, are still independent actors. And when there is real resistance between a population and a government, you can't rely on the military to behave as you might like. Once again - Iraq and the general failure of the Iraq military to enforce western interests is a perfect example here. Ultimately there is a reason that governments who expect there may be major resistance to future actions tend to work to ban gun ownership. Mao took control of the government by arming a population, and then went to every effort to disarm that very population before engaging in actions leading to the deaths of tens of millions. Shortly after the Bolsheviks overthrew czarist Russia through force of arms - they began working to seize arms from the people. Stalin was already well entrenched in the nation and his actions, once taking absolute control, would come to cost the lives of tens of millions. And perhaps the most well publicized example - Hitler seized all arms from Jews in 1938. The holocaust started 3 years later. Venezuela banned gun ownership/sales in 2012. This was likely done at the behest of then vice president Maduro. Chavez was terminally ill and would die several months later. It was supposedly done to combat Venezuela's rising murder rate. This [1] is that murder rate. It didn't stop the criminals from having guns, but it did stop the citizenry. Despotism and gun control are invariably tightly linked. So, at the minimum, I think we would be in a different place today if Venezuela did have an armed citizenry. While it's impossible to predict exactly what effect this would have culminated in, I do not find it absurd to suggest it would have been better than the present. [1] - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/1998_to_2013_Venezuela_Murder_Rate.png/400px-1998_to_2013_Venezuela_Murder_Rate.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/19...
    - auto4ppl 8y ago
      Given the history of previous U.S.-sponsored coup attempts against the Venezuelan government, and given that the U.S. special envoy for Venezuela was responsible for running guns to right-wing death squads in Central America in the 80's, and given that the "outside interventions" in Iraq and Libya killed hundreds of thousands of people and left those countries as smoking husks, I'd say the appropriate time for an invasion is never. Incidentally, the Venezuelan government is not refusing aid delivered by genuine humanitarian organizations such as the Red Cross - they were refusing "aid" delivered by agencies of the U.S. government, on behalf of an insurrectionist leader currently attempting a coup d'etat. This refused aid was later burned down by the paramilitary arm of the rebels. Imagine that the Iranian government declared that it was recognizing a random U.S. congressman as the legitimate president and then demanded that the Revolutionary Guard be permitted to deliver aid to this congressman's new government. That's basically the situation
      - pfisch 8y ago
        >Imagine that the Iranian government declared that it was recognizing a random U.S. congressman as the legitimate president and then demanded that the Revolutionary Guard be permitted to deliver aid to this congressman's new government. That's basically the situation No, it isn't. The situation is that a despot is in control of Venezuela and it has failed in its contract with the people to provide the basic services required of government, so it is no longer a legitimate government regardless of your rationalizations of the situation. If Trump refused to cede control, our inflation rate was over 100000%, and there were rampant food shortages and electricity failures then I hope there would be a revolution.
      - auto4ppl 8y ago
        >> No, it isn't. The situation is that a despot is in control of Venezuela and it has failed in its contract with the people to provide the basic services required of government, so it is no longer a legitimate government regardless of your rationalizations of the situation. That's up to the people of Venezuela, who by and large have continued to stand by the Maduro government, which is why the opposition has resorted to attempting to incite a foreign invasion to seize power. It's really pretty disgusting that you're so callously willing to condemn the Venezuelan people to the horrifying fates suffered by Iraqis and Libyans after the United States destroyed their countries. It's not your decision to make, it's not the decision of the United States government, and it's certainly not the decision of a cluster of Reagan-era war criminals with long histories of supporting right-wing Latin American death squads.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
    - peisistratos 8y ago
      They are not refusing food aid, the Red Cross etc. have been let on all along. The US announced the Venezuelan government had no sovereignty over their border and sent "aid" trucks in, which were blocked. Incidentally, "humanitarian aid" is how the person the USA convicted as a criminal - Elliot Abrams - sent weapons to contras in and out of Nicaragua.
      - brianpgordon 8y ago
        They absolutely are refusing food aid. Sources below. What is your stake in denying this? Are you pro-Maduro? https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/07/americas/venezuela-aid-blocked-bridge-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/07/americas/venezuela-aid-blocke... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/with-millions-of-dollars-of-us-aid-stuck-at-the-venezuelan-border-what-happens-next/2019/02/08/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/with-... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-diplomacy-lima-gro/u-s-threatens-new-sanctions-on-venezuela-if-aid-convoys-blocked-official-idUSKCN1QC00I https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-diplom...
- danemacaulay 8y ago
  citing the new york times :/ didnt they push for WMD in iraq? edit: ah yes, unquestioned reporting pushing the administration's policy of war. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2004/may/26/pressandpublishing.usnews https://www.theguardian.com/media/2004/may/26/pressandpublis... isnt this what happened with collusion as well? oh yeah https://taibbi.substack.com/ https://taibbi.substack.com/
  - amazingman 8y ago
    The actual content of the Mueller report makes Taibbi’s post about it appear both premature and immature.
lifehacked 8y ago
How do their "leaders" still have their heads?
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- nradov 8y ago
  The populace is largely disarmed.
- whoisjuan 8y ago
  They have the support of the military forces. So rioting doesn't work. It just gets you killed on the street with no repercussions for the government. Also, the word "leader" implies that this is a legitimate democracy, which is not. Venezuela has an authoritarian corrupt government at best, a dictatorship at worst.
  - NedIsakoff 8y ago
    A wise leader once said: All things grow out of the barrel of a gun. According to the Marxist theory of the state, the army is the chief component of state power. Whoever wants to seize and retain state power must have a strong army.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 8y ago
      I think the quote is actually, "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun," per Google and Wikipedia. Is this part of Marxist theory, or Maoist? I genuinely don't know. I had always thought that Marx viewed the revolution as at least potentially peaceful, but I confess I have never read him.
      - perilunar 8y ago
        It was Mao Zedong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_power_grows_out_of_the_barrel_of_a_gun https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_power_grows_out_of_t...
SampleBourgeois 8y ago
Life in Venezuela would improve dramatically if the US quit diverting all money going in and out of the country.
- SopaDeMacaco 8y ago
  You can pump any ammount of money you want back to their economy, the result will be the same in the end.
- googlemike 8y ago
  How is it that, no matter what, people will always find a way to blame the US? I think in this case, the country just ran itself to the ground.
  - astazangasta 8y ago
    We sponsored an attempted coup in 2002 and spent the next two decades trying to undermine their government, complete with sanctions. Read something.
  - AnthonyWnC 8y ago
    Even if the US sanctions did not primarily caused the crisis in Venezuela; their sanctions certain add more oil to the fire. Ref. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/americas/venezuela-sanctions-maduro.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/americas/venezuela-... https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/sanctions-venezuela-intentions-190226124044497.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/sanctions-venezuela-i...
  - boomboomsubban 8y ago
    Though the US is not the sole cause of many problems, they certainly go out of their way to make many of them worse. In Venezuela, they've placed crippling sanctions on the country for years, and promoted political instability by openly backing numerous coups.
    - votepaunchy 8y ago
SopaDeMacaco 8y ago
You reap what you sow. I have ZERO sympathy for them. Too bad our president Bolsonaro does not have the balls to close the borders and deport this scum back to the country they ruined.
jeffdavis 8y ago
Regardless of whether this is the "fault" of socialism, socialism demands a lot of centralized government power, which seems like the perfect cover for this kind of horrible government. (Aside: I think a lot of social programs could be run quite well at a local level, but when a politician asks for immense power at the scale of a nation or large state, I get very worried.)
- jeffdavis 8y ago
  Getting a lot of downvotes for this comment, but could someone please explain where I'm going wrong? A lot of people think the way I do, so it would be helpful to explain. A country with a bright future just a couple decades ago experienced a truly remarkable decline after a socialist was elected. I'm sure there are other factors, but surely this is going to be seen as yet another failure of socialism. Whether this is because the socialism was not "implemented correctly" or not, clearly the socialist label has been used by a number of very bad people as a way to accumulate more power.
  - alehul 8y ago
    For anyone reading: HN encourages us to comment if we disagree, not silently downvote, unless the comment lacks any relevant content, and doesn’t add to the conversation. This clearly is relevant, and it adds something to the conversation, whether or not you agree with it. If you’re unwilling to question whether you’re correct, you’ll never be able to adapt your views and become more correct. There’s no shame in being incorrect, if it takes you closer to correctness long-term. Please remember that, along with the principle of charity— very few people are here to troll. We’re here to critically think about the links and their meanings, consequences, and related debates.
  - EdSharkey 8y ago
    I think you pushed enough buttons and simplified the issues enough that people who disagreed with you downvoted you. No big deal...
    - deleted 8y ago
droithomme 8y ago
Things are bad there. People blame socialism, perhaps that is the cause, perhaps not. But I also see worse images of greater desperation coming from Los Angeles, San Francisco and Puerto Rico, all in the US.
- Lazare 8y ago
  > I also see worse images of greater desperation coming from Los Angeles, San Francisco I...don't really think you do, no.
  - droithomme 8y ago
    By your snipping Puerto Rico, I presume you agree with that one. Let us move then to LA. https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Typhus-Epidemic-Worsens-in-Los-Angeles-505166301.html https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Typhus-Epidemic-Wor... https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-homeless-toilets-20180221-story.html https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-homeless-toilet... http://time.com/3681883/los-angeles-homeless-camps/ http://time.com/3681883/los-angeles-homeless-camps/ San Francisco: https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2018/02/20/san-francisco-filth-dirt.html https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2018/02/20/san... https://townhall.com/tipsheet/alexnitzberg/2018/02/21/cesspool-in-san-francisco-garbage-excrement-drug-needles-blight-city-n2452446 https://townhall.com/tipsheet/alexnitzberg/2018/02/21/cesspo...
    - Lazare 8y ago
      > By your snipping Puerto Rico, I presume you agree with that one. Absolutely not; I'm just less familiar with it, and so less able to judge arguments about it. As for your links, that's not remotely on the same scale as what's being discussed in Venezuela. You need some perspective.
      - droithomme 8y ago
        Please tell me about the typhus epidemic in Venezuela.
jmpman 8y ago
Unfortunately, the population accepted a gun ban back in 2012.
- whatshisface 8y ago
  There is a lot more that the population accepted, it's not just the gun ban. Venezuela is the right-winger's nightmare scenario, basically where politicians got elected on left wing promises and then switched to being completely corrupt. The gun ban is just one element of their total coverage of every single American right wing fear. Honestly at this point the biggest reason why someone in America might oppose government situations like universal healthcare is out of the reasonable fear that they will be administrated corruptly to the point where they're worse than nothing.
  - fred_is_fred 8y ago
    The idea that American gun owners could do anything against the US military is nothing more than right wing masturbatory fantasy. As is stated above, as long as the military supports the government there, the options are limited.
- marticode 8y ago
  There are plenty of guns in the population - the regime has armed supporters and organized them as militias.
- twblalock 8y ago
  As long as the military continues to support the government, an armed population cannot not successfully force Maduro out. There are also many Venezuelan civilians who still support the regime. These people would presumably also have guns.
  - whb07 8y ago
    this goes against every revolution in the history books.
seibelj 8y ago
When they have power, Bitcoin has been a solution for wealth preservation and capital movement given their pariah status with western banks and the never ending destruction of their currency. When the dust clears and capitalism is restored, there will be a fascinating case study on this development.
- CryptoPunk 8y ago
  Hopefully when Bitcoin-Core transaction fees reach $30 again like they did in December 2017, the common Venezuelan people will be able to afford the $60 overhead ($30 opening fee and $30 reserve needed to close the channel in case of counterparty fraud) to open a Lightning Network channel, or simply switch to a more scalable cryptocurrency.
  - nyolfen 8y ago
    i’ve read accounts that say litecoin is nearly as popular as btc there
    - CryptoPunk 8y ago
      I'm not surprised. I'm betting on Bitcoin Cash, which has recently overtaken Litecoin in tx volume, and has most of the big early adopters in the Bitcoin space (e.g. Bitpay, Coinbase) backing it, and of course, Ethereum. It doesn't really matter what it is, as long as it can gain a sufficient amount of liquidity and number of users.
Hydraulix989 8y ago
Missing context: All of this new-found publicity for Venezuela is because Trump supporters are linking America with Venezuela, claiming that Bernie Sanders will turn America into Venezuela if he gets elected.
- rayiner 8y ago
  If the shoe fits.
drb91 8y ago
The world could always halt sanctions: the source of the problems.
- twblalock 8y ago
  The Venezuelan government destroyed the economy. On top of that, the government is using military force to prevent foreign aid from entering the country. Sanctions make things a little bit worse, and they make Maduro's claims that outside forces are to blame for Venezuela's problems seem more convincing. (Sanctions have the same propaganda effect in North Korea). But in any case, it is pretty clear that the Venezuelan government's mismanagement of the economy has been the primary factor for almost 20 years: Chavez was first elected in 1999 and the problems began under his leadership.
  - drb91 8y ago
    The economy is predominantly private: it is the sanctions hurting the economy. I refuse to defend Maduro, but he is the peoples’ choice. Yes there are anti-Maduro rallies, but there are also pro-Maduro rallies the media conveniently ignores. Meanwhile, the idea that the US could help without putting someone right wing in place that happens to benefit the supply of fuel against the interests of the people of Venezuela like Guaidó is absurd. If you want to help the people of Venezuela, end sanctions. This is an economic siege and we are seeing the consequences.
    - twblalock 8y ago
      The economy was destroyed before the sanctions started.
    - vixen99 8y ago
      Here's a different view: https://economics21.org/how-socialism-destroyed-venezuela https://economics21.org/how-socialism-destroyed-venezuela
      - drb91 8y ago
tlrobinson 8y ago
> If there is power, and I can do my job, I’ve been told by my bosses to be more measured in how I cover what’s happening in Venezuela. They’re terrified of being shut down by the government and having their equipment confiscated. That would spell the end of our station. Maybe writing a (non-anonymous) article about the situation for the LA Times isn't the best idea?
YoyoyoPCP 8y ago
When Coke pulled out of Venezuela, I felt a tremendous chill that kept me following the whole situation for the last three years. Truly fascinating, like watching a car accident in slow motion. I really do not know what will happen and wonder if there's anything to learn from it other than the prototypical "socialism sucks" type tropes.
- gboudrias 8y ago
  And Coke kills people (union leaders) in South America as a cost of doing business. So yeah.
antoineMoPa 8y ago
1. What does this have to do with Hacker News 2. Everything but the US point of view seems to have been flagged here. What is the goal of having comments if there is no discussion.
danemacaulay 8y ago
venezuela is under economic attack, see http://www.socialistviewpoint.org/marapr_19/marapr_19_05.html http://www.socialistviewpoint.org/marapr_19/marapr_19_05.htm... that centralized planning doesnt work is just wrong :) look to walmart and amazon as examples of efficient central planning. https://www.versobooks.com/books/2822-the-people-s-republic-of-walmart https://www.versobooks.com/books/2822-the-people-s-republic-...
- caspper69 8y ago
  You cannot possibly compare central planning as a reaction to the free-market (walmart and amazon) to the central planning of an entire nation's economic output / consumption. That is so intellectually dishonest, I'm actually speechless.
- chii 8y ago
  how are those corporations the result of centralized planning? Every instance of centralized planning by an authoritarian gov't has ended in disaster. And yet, every time, different excuses have been brought up about why it failed. > The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design. - https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Friedrich_Hayek#The_curious_task https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Friedrich_Hayek#The_curio...
- twblalock 8y ago
  > that centralized planning doesnt work is just wrong :) look to walmart and amazon as examples of efficient central planning. Walmart is one of many players in the economy and it reacts to consumer demand when it decides what to produce and sell. That is not a form of central planning. An example of central planning would be the government ordering Walmart to produce ten million bicycles per year and to sell them for $80 each -- regardless of how many people actually want to buy bicycles and how much they are willing to pay.
alanz1223 8y ago
Invade and keep the oil. The Venezuelan people get to live in a decent country and whoever invaded gets rewarded. Sure the military is on maduros side because he is the one that (barely) feeds them but an organization/government that is well financially supported would have no problems changing their hearts with a little more cash on the table.. this needs to be seen as an opportunity more than it is a crisis
- chii 8y ago
  why would any entity invade (which is expensive), but still give back to the people there afterwards if the oil is the only profit from the invasion? The people needs to rebel, and have a civil war. Take back the country, and rebuild the oil infrastructure. remove price control of goods, and let the market work.
  - alanz1223 8y ago
    we give countries millions in aid for "humanitarian" reasons without expecting much back, you think we wouldnt be interested in getting our hands in one of the biggest oil reserves in the world? And actually there is nothing to give back directly, the very act of overthrowing the current gov which is the cause of their misery is their aid. Its like removing trees that are blocking a road because you plan to sell them. Your actions have good repercussions even though they are done according to your interest. The people cant rebel because there is no one with enough cojones or brains to do it. it sounds harsh but it is true. "venezuelan rambo" tried to revolt and even though people supported him through social media, they simply were not willing to die for the cause so the government stamped him out. Besides even if there was a successful revolt the probability of another maduro/chavez rising out of that is high. I am convinced the only way we fix the world is literally by controlling it. We are the only ones doing society right. sounds harsh and not politically correct but its time to leave behind beauty-parlor chitchat and get real with ourselves. the only reason why the US shouldnt directly do it is because we would set a bad example for countries. We couldn't judge Russia with the same yard stick we measure ourselves with
- askvictor 8y ago
  Where has this worked out, historically?
apo 8y ago
The baffling thing about this is the vast oil wealth the country controls. Its oil reserves are the largest in the word, yet its economy lies in shambles. That takes some serious mismanagement.
- nyolfen 8y ago
  the oil is poor quality and requires constant reinvestment in extraction and refinement infrastructure to remain competitive with other exporters. for various reasons this investment has been neglected for the last decade or two, but it’s not quite a turnkey fix to just decide to sell more oil.
- whatshisface 8y ago
  The oil reserves are in shambles too, due to as you said mismanagement. They are a special type of oil that requires extra investment to produce, and the government has failed to make those investments. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/01/29/charting-the-decline-of-venezuelas-oil-industry/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/01/29/charting-the...
- rStar 8y ago
  The economy of Venezuela lies in shambles due to US intervention and sanctions. Venezuela has very limited access to the world market.
  - gspetr 8y ago
    Easily untrue. The US has been 40% of Venezuela's oil export[0]. If they wanted to, they could have obliterated Venezuela's economy in a second. [0] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d0/EEPPHOTO1.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d0/EEPPHOTO... P.S. I'm Russian and do not have the regional bias.
    - rStar 8y ago
      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-rosneft-exclusive-idUSKCN1RU2A4 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-rosnef...
burger_moon 8y ago
It's not just Venezuela, look at what is happening in Haiti.
peisistratos 8y ago
The US government seized Venezuelan assets, then started sending US military to the Colombian side of the border. On top of numerous sanctions, calls for military revolt, dictation of who is president. Funny to see Bernie Sanders to Trump to the US press shaking their finger at Maduro and the US deciding who is president, then the US press goes back to bemoaning Russian involvement in US politics (of course the US NED interferes more in Russian elections than Russia ever did in US elections). Of course the UK seized Venezuela's assets too. Macron took a break from sending his goon squads to assault the yellow vest rural working class of his country to make maudlin statements about how Maduro treated the Venezuelan anti-Maduro protestors who are shooting and burning people to death in Caracas. "Populist" Italy was lambasted for preventing an EU United front for endorsing a new US/EU selection of who should run Venezuela. Meanwhile Brazil has Lula and the opposition locked up in prison, Obama backed the military coup in Honduras, presidential candidates assassinated , not the endless articles in the western press about problems there though, other than Hondurans are fleeing the chaos to the US border - then they appear on the US news. It's amusing to see the Macron yellow vest, Brexit/Corbyn, Trump/Bernie western nations, being overwhelmed by their own increasingly angry working class, performing some good old fashioned imperialism, to the maudlin squawks of liberal cheers.
luord 8y ago
I'm from Colombia and my family lives in one of the biggest cities that is relatively close to the border. I visit frequently and every time I visit, there are more and more venezuelan immigrants. This started happening years ago. I'm shocked by the people who pretend that this is all propaganda and that the venezuelan people are ok with their government. I'm sure that the people living on the streets here aren't.

90 points by petethomas 8y ago

The world still notices. I've recently seen a number of articles about the protests and the opposition leader Juan Guaido. In fact the New York Times published an op-ed piece by him fairly recently.

auto4ppl 8y ago
Yes, there's been an enormous propaganda push to legitimize a future U.S. intervention - either a direct invasion, or igniting a full-blown civil war by arming right-wing paramilitaries, as was the standard operating procedure throughout the 80's.
- pfisch 8y ago
  The inflation rate is 2688670%, they are refusing aid, they are having widespread electricity outages and food shortages, it seems like their leader has become a despot. At what point is it reasonable for an outside intervention?
  - danemacaulay 8y ago
    the aid is a charade :)
    - pfisch 8y ago
      Even if it is, which I doubt, that is like the least important thing that I listed.
      - crispinb 8y ago
        Probably true, but let's face it, there are few good actors in this story. The Venezuelan government is not remotely interested in the actual welfare of its citizens. The US foreign policy establishment is concerned as always only with Empire (the aid story is a lie: https://theintercept.com/2019/02/20/regime-change-we-can-believe-in-the-u-s-agenda-in-venezuela-haiti-and-egypt/ https://theintercept.com/2019/02/20/regime-change-we-can-bel...). The nation itself is riven. Picking a 'side' here could not possibly be done in good faith. And thinking that armed citizens would improve matters is beyond absurd.
        rjf72 8y ago
        I completely agree with you, with one exception. It's easy to see the absurdity of an armed population against a government with a military at its back. Of course the United States was founded by this very contradiction in intuition, but a more modern event is probably a better example. We destroyed Iraq without difficulty, yet never managed to control it. The full force of the US military backed by literally billions of dollars a day, and the best training money can buy, was unable to stabilize control against disparate groups of poorly trained, poorly funded, insurgents armed with little more than 50s eras rifles and some rudimentary homemade explosives. Think about how remarkable it is that these disparate individuals managed to force our military to huddle into small isolated 'green zones'. The point here is that there's a difference between destroying a location and controlling it. Of course an armed population is not going to stop aerial bombardment and mass destruction, but at the same time it's practically impossible to control a territory when there is a hostile armed population. And there are also morale issues. The government doesn't own the military. Even the military doesn't own the military. The military is made up of real people who, though trained to act as a group, are still independent actors. And when there is real resistance between a population and a government, you can't rely on the military to behave as you might like. Once again - Iraq and the general failure of the Iraq military to enforce western interests is a perfect example here. Ultimately there is a reason that governments who expect there may be major resistance to future actions tend to work to ban gun ownership. Mao took control of the government by arming a population, and then went to every effort to disarm that very population before engaging in actions leading to the deaths of tens of millions. Shortly after the Bolsheviks overthrew czarist Russia through force of arms - they began working to seize arms from the people. Stalin was already well entrenched in the nation and his actions, once taking absolute control, would come to cost the lives of tens of millions. And perhaps the most well publicized example - Hitler seized all arms from Jews in 1938. The holocaust started 3 years later. Venezuela banned gun ownership/sales in 2012. This was likely done at the behest of then vice president Maduro. Chavez was terminally ill and would die several months later. It was supposedly done to combat Venezuela's rising murder rate. This [1] is that murder rate. It didn't stop the criminals from having guns, but it did stop the citizenry. Despotism and gun control are invariably tightly linked. So, at the minimum, I think we would be in a different place today if Venezuela did have an armed citizenry. While it's impossible to predict exactly what effect this would have culminated in, I do not find it absurd to suggest it would have been better than the present. [1] - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/1998_to_2013_Venezuela_Murder_Rate.png/400px-1998_to_2013_Venezuela_Murder_Rate.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/19...
  - auto4ppl 8y ago
    Given the history of previous U.S.-sponsored coup attempts against the Venezuelan government, and given that the U.S. special envoy for Venezuela was responsible for running guns to right-wing death squads in Central America in the 80's, and given that the "outside interventions" in Iraq and Libya killed hundreds of thousands of people and left those countries as smoking husks, I'd say the appropriate time for an invasion is never. Incidentally, the Venezuelan government is not refusing aid delivered by genuine humanitarian organizations such as the Red Cross - they were refusing "aid" delivered by agencies of the U.S. government, on behalf of an insurrectionist leader currently attempting a coup d'etat. This refused aid was later burned down by the paramilitary arm of the rebels. Imagine that the Iranian government declared that it was recognizing a random U.S. congressman as the legitimate president and then demanded that the Revolutionary Guard be permitted to deliver aid to this congressman's new government. That's basically the situation
    - pfisch 8y ago
      >Imagine that the Iranian government declared that it was recognizing a random U.S. congressman as the legitimate president and then demanded that the Revolutionary Guard be permitted to deliver aid to this congressman's new government. That's basically the situation No, it isn't. The situation is that a despot is in control of Venezuela and it has failed in its contract with the people to provide the basic services required of government, so it is no longer a legitimate government regardless of your rationalizations of the situation. If Trump refused to cede control, our inflation rate was over 100000%, and there were rampant food shortages and electricity failures then I hope there would be a revolution.
    - auto4ppl 8y ago
      >> No, it isn't. The situation is that a despot is in control of Venezuela and it has failed in its contract with the people to provide the basic services required of government, so it is no longer a legitimate government regardless of your rationalizations of the situation. That's up to the people of Venezuela, who by and large have continued to stand by the Maduro government, which is why the opposition has resorted to attempting to incite a foreign invasion to seize power. It's really pretty disgusting that you're so callously willing to condemn the Venezuelan people to the horrifying fates suffered by Iraqis and Libyans after the United States destroyed their countries. It's not your decision to make, it's not the decision of the United States government, and it's certainly not the decision of a cluster of Reagan-era war criminals with long histories of supporting right-wing Latin American death squads.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - peisistratos 8y ago
    They are not refusing food aid, the Red Cross etc. have been let on all along. The US announced the Venezuelan government had no sovereignty over their border and sent "aid" trucks in, which were blocked. Incidentally, "humanitarian aid" is how the person the USA convicted as a criminal - Elliot Abrams - sent weapons to contras in and out of Nicaragua.
    - brianpgordon 8y ago
      They absolutely are refusing food aid. Sources below. What is your stake in denying this? Are you pro-Maduro? https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/07/americas/venezuela-aid-blocked-bridge-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/07/americas/venezuela-aid-blocke... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/with-millions-of-dollars-of-us-aid-stuck-at-the-venezuelan-border-what-happens-next/2019/02/08/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/with-... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-diplomacy-lima-gro/u-s-threatens-new-sanctions-on-venezuela-if-aid-convoys-blocked-official-idUSKCN1QC00I https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-diplom...
danemacaulay 8y ago
citing the new york times :/ didnt they push for WMD in iraq? edit: ah yes, unquestioned reporting pushing the administration's policy of war. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2004/may/26/pressandpublishing.usnews https://www.theguardian.com/media/2004/may/26/pressandpublis... isnt this what happened with collusion as well? oh yeah https://taibbi.substack.com/ https://taibbi.substack.com/
- amazingman 8y ago
  The actual content of the Mueller report makes Taibbi’s post about it appear both premature and immature.

lifehacked 8y ago

How do their "leaders" still have their heads?

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
nradov 8y ago
The populace is largely disarmed.
whoisjuan 8y ago
They have the support of the military forces. So rioting doesn't work. It just gets you killed on the street with no repercussions for the government. Also, the word "leader" implies that this is a legitimate democracy, which is not. Venezuela has an authoritarian corrupt government at best, a dictatorship at worst.
- NedIsakoff 8y ago
  A wise leader once said: All things grow out of the barrel of a gun. According to the Marxist theory of the state, the army is the chief component of state power. Whoever wants to seize and retain state power must have a strong army.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 8y ago
    I think the quote is actually, "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun," per Google and Wikipedia. Is this part of Marxist theory, or Maoist? I genuinely don't know. I had always thought that Marx viewed the revolution as at least potentially peaceful, but I confess I have never read him.
    - perilunar 8y ago
      It was Mao Zedong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_power_grows_out_of_the_barrel_of_a_gun https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_power_grows_out_of_t...

SampleBourgeois 8y ago

Life in Venezuela would improve dramatically if the US quit diverting all money going in and out of the country.

SopaDeMacaco 8y ago
You can pump any ammount of money you want back to their economy, the result will be the same in the end.
googlemike 8y ago
How is it that, no matter what, people will always find a way to blame the US? I think in this case, the country just ran itself to the ground.
- astazangasta 8y ago
  We sponsored an attempted coup in 2002 and spent the next two decades trying to undermine their government, complete with sanctions. Read something.
- AnthonyWnC 8y ago
  Even if the US sanctions did not primarily caused the crisis in Venezuela; their sanctions certain add more oil to the fire. Ref. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/americas/venezuela-sanctions-maduro.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/americas/venezuela-... https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/sanctions-venezuela-intentions-190226124044497.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/sanctions-venezuela-i...
- boomboomsubban 8y ago
  Though the US is not the sole cause of many problems, they certainly go out of their way to make many of them worse. In Venezuela, they've placed crippling sanctions on the country for years, and promoted political instability by openly backing numerous coups.
  - votepaunchy 8y ago

SopaDeMacaco 8y ago

You reap what you sow. I have ZERO sympathy for them. Too bad our president Bolsonaro does not have the balls to close the borders and deport this scum back to the country they ruined.

jeffdavis 8y ago

Regardless of whether this is the "fault" of socialism, socialism demands a lot of centralized government power, which seems like the perfect cover for this kind of horrible government. (Aside: I think a lot of social programs could be run quite well at a local level, but when a politician asks for immense power at the scale of a nation or large state, I get very worried.)

jeffdavis 8y ago
Getting a lot of downvotes for this comment, but could someone please explain where I'm going wrong? A lot of people think the way I do, so it would be helpful to explain. A country with a bright future just a couple decades ago experienced a truly remarkable decline after a socialist was elected. I'm sure there are other factors, but surely this is going to be seen as yet another failure of socialism. Whether this is because the socialism was not "implemented correctly" or not, clearly the socialist label has been used by a number of very bad people as a way to accumulate more power.
- alehul 8y ago
  For anyone reading: HN encourages us to comment if we disagree, not silently downvote, unless the comment lacks any relevant content, and doesn’t add to the conversation. This clearly is relevant, and it adds something to the conversation, whether or not you agree with it. If you’re unwilling to question whether you’re correct, you’ll never be able to adapt your views and become more correct. There’s no shame in being incorrect, if it takes you closer to correctness long-term. Please remember that, along with the principle of charity— very few people are here to troll. We’re here to critically think about the links and their meanings, consequences, and related debates.
- EdSharkey 8y ago
  I think you pushed enough buttons and simplified the issues enough that people who disagreed with you downvoted you. No big deal...
  - deleted 8y ago

droithomme 8y ago

Things are bad there. People blame socialism, perhaps that is the cause, perhaps not. But I also see worse images of greater desperation coming from Los Angeles, San Francisco and Puerto Rico, all in the US.

Lazare 8y ago
> I also see worse images of greater desperation coming from Los Angeles, San Francisco I...don't really think you do, no.
- droithomme 8y ago
  By your snipping Puerto Rico, I presume you agree with that one. Let us move then to LA. https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Typhus-Epidemic-Worsens-in-Los-Angeles-505166301.html https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Typhus-Epidemic-Wor... https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-homeless-toilets-20180221-story.html https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-homeless-toilet... http://time.com/3681883/los-angeles-homeless-camps/ http://time.com/3681883/los-angeles-homeless-camps/ San Francisco: https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2018/02/20/san-francisco-filth-dirt.html https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2018/02/20/san... https://townhall.com/tipsheet/alexnitzberg/2018/02/21/cesspool-in-san-francisco-garbage-excrement-drug-needles-blight-city-n2452446 https://townhall.com/tipsheet/alexnitzberg/2018/02/21/cesspo...
  - Lazare 8y ago
    > By your snipping Puerto Rico, I presume you agree with that one. Absolutely not; I'm just less familiar with it, and so less able to judge arguments about it. As for your links, that's not remotely on the same scale as what's being discussed in Venezuela. You need some perspective.
    - droithomme 8y ago
      Please tell me about the typhus epidemic in Venezuela.

jmpman 8y ago

Unfortunately, the population accepted a gun ban back in 2012.

whatshisface 8y ago
There is a lot more that the population accepted, it's not just the gun ban. Venezuela is the right-winger's nightmare scenario, basically where politicians got elected on left wing promises and then switched to being completely corrupt. The gun ban is just one element of their total coverage of every single American right wing fear. Honestly at this point the biggest reason why someone in America might oppose government situations like universal healthcare is out of the reasonable fear that they will be administrated corruptly to the point where they're worse than nothing.
- fred_is_fred 8y ago
  The idea that American gun owners could do anything against the US military is nothing more than right wing masturbatory fantasy. As is stated above, as long as the military supports the government there, the options are limited.
marticode 8y ago
There are plenty of guns in the population - the regime has armed supporters and organized them as militias.
twblalock 8y ago
As long as the military continues to support the government, an armed population cannot not successfully force Maduro out. There are also many Venezuelan civilians who still support the regime. These people would presumably also have guns.
- whb07 8y ago
  this goes against every revolution in the history books.

seibelj 8y ago

When they have power, Bitcoin has been a solution for wealth preservation and capital movement given their pariah status with western banks and the never ending destruction of their currency. When the dust clears and capitalism is restored, there will be a fascinating case study on this development.

CryptoPunk 8y ago
Hopefully when Bitcoin-Core transaction fees reach $30 again like they did in December 2017, the common Venezuelan people will be able to afford the $60 overhead ($30 opening fee and $30 reserve needed to close the channel in case of counterparty fraud) to open a Lightning Network channel, or simply switch to a more scalable cryptocurrency.
- nyolfen 8y ago
  i’ve read accounts that say litecoin is nearly as popular as btc there
  - CryptoPunk 8y ago
    I'm not surprised. I'm betting on Bitcoin Cash, which has recently overtaken Litecoin in tx volume, and has most of the big early adopters in the Bitcoin space (e.g. Bitpay, Coinbase) backing it, and of course, Ethereum. It doesn't really matter what it is, as long as it can gain a sufficient amount of liquidity and number of users.

Hydraulix989 8y ago

Missing context: All of this new-found publicity for Venezuela is because Trump supporters are linking America with Venezuela, claiming that Bernie Sanders will turn America into Venezuela if he gets elected.

rayiner 8y ago
If the shoe fits.

drb91 8y ago

The world could always halt sanctions: the source of the problems.

twblalock 8y ago
The Venezuelan government destroyed the economy. On top of that, the government is using military force to prevent foreign aid from entering the country. Sanctions make things a little bit worse, and they make Maduro's claims that outside forces are to blame for Venezuela's problems seem more convincing. (Sanctions have the same propaganda effect in North Korea). But in any case, it is pretty clear that the Venezuelan government's mismanagement of the economy has been the primary factor for almost 20 years: Chavez was first elected in 1999 and the problems began under his leadership.
- drb91 8y ago
  The economy is predominantly private: it is the sanctions hurting the economy. I refuse to defend Maduro, but he is the peoples’ choice. Yes there are anti-Maduro rallies, but there are also pro-Maduro rallies the media conveniently ignores. Meanwhile, the idea that the US could help without putting someone right wing in place that happens to benefit the supply of fuel against the interests of the people of Venezuela like Guaidó is absurd. If you want to help the people of Venezuela, end sanctions. This is an economic siege and we are seeing the consequences.
  - twblalock 8y ago
    The economy was destroyed before the sanctions started.
  - vixen99 8y ago
    Here's a different view: https://economics21.org/how-socialism-destroyed-venezuela https://economics21.org/how-socialism-destroyed-venezuela
    - drb91 8y ago

tlrobinson 8y ago

> If there is power, and I can do my job, I’ve been told by my bosses to be more measured in how I cover what’s happening in Venezuela. They’re terrified of being shut down by the government and having their equipment confiscated. That would spell the end of our station. Maybe writing a (non-anonymous) article about the situation for the LA Times isn't the best idea?

YoyoyoPCP 8y ago

When Coke pulled out of Venezuela, I felt a tremendous chill that kept me following the whole situation for the last three years. Truly fascinating, like watching a car accident in slow motion. I really do not know what will happen and wonder if there's anything to learn from it other than the prototypical "socialism sucks" type tropes.

gboudrias 8y ago
And Coke kills people (union leaders) in South America as a cost of doing business. So yeah.

antoineMoPa 8y ago

1. What does this have to do with Hacker News 2. Everything but the US point of view seems to have been flagged here. What is the goal of having comments if there is no discussion.

danemacaulay 8y ago

venezuela is under economic attack, see http://www.socialistviewpoint.org/marapr_19/marapr_19_05.html http://www.socialistviewpoint.org/marapr_19/marapr_19_05.htm... that centralized planning doesnt work is just wrong :) look to walmart and amazon as examples of efficient central planning. https://www.versobooks.com/books/2822-the-people-s-republic-of-walmart https://www.versobooks.com/books/2822-the-people-s-republic-...

caspper69 8y ago
You cannot possibly compare central planning as a reaction to the free-market (walmart and amazon) to the central planning of an entire nation's economic output / consumption. That is so intellectually dishonest, I'm actually speechless.
chii 8y ago
how are those corporations the result of centralized planning? Every instance of centralized planning by an authoritarian gov't has ended in disaster. And yet, every time, different excuses have been brought up about why it failed. > The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design. - https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Friedrich_Hayek#The_curious_task https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Friedrich_Hayek#The_curio...
twblalock 8y ago
> that centralized planning doesnt work is just wrong :) look to walmart and amazon as examples of efficient central planning. Walmart is one of many players in the economy and it reacts to consumer demand when it decides what to produce and sell. That is not a form of central planning. An example of central planning would be the government ordering Walmart to produce ten million bicycles per year and to sell them for $80 each -- regardless of how many people actually want to buy bicycles and how much they are willing to pay.

alanz1223 8y ago

Invade and keep the oil. The Venezuelan people get to live in a decent country and whoever invaded gets rewarded. Sure the military is on maduros side because he is the one that (barely) feeds them but an organization/government that is well financially supported would have no problems changing their hearts with a little more cash on the table.. this needs to be seen as an opportunity more than it is a crisis

chii 8y ago
why would any entity invade (which is expensive), but still give back to the people there afterwards if the oil is the only profit from the invasion? The people needs to rebel, and have a civil war. Take back the country, and rebuild the oil infrastructure. remove price control of goods, and let the market work.
- alanz1223 8y ago
  we give countries millions in aid for "humanitarian" reasons without expecting much back, you think we wouldnt be interested in getting our hands in one of the biggest oil reserves in the world? And actually there is nothing to give back directly, the very act of overthrowing the current gov which is the cause of their misery is their aid. Its like removing trees that are blocking a road because you plan to sell them. Your actions have good repercussions even though they are done according to your interest. The people cant rebel because there is no one with enough cojones or brains to do it. it sounds harsh but it is true. "venezuelan rambo" tried to revolt and even though people supported him through social media, they simply were not willing to die for the cause so the government stamped him out. Besides even if there was a successful revolt the probability of another maduro/chavez rising out of that is high. I am convinced the only way we fix the world is literally by controlling it. We are the only ones doing society right. sounds harsh and not politically correct but its time to leave behind beauty-parlor chitchat and get real with ourselves. the only reason why the US shouldnt directly do it is because we would set a bad example for countries. We couldn't judge Russia with the same yard stick we measure ourselves with
askvictor 8y ago
Where has this worked out, historically?

apo 8y ago

The baffling thing about this is the vast oil wealth the country controls. Its oil reserves are the largest in the word, yet its economy lies in shambles. That takes some serious mismanagement.

nyolfen 8y ago
the oil is poor quality and requires constant reinvestment in extraction and refinement infrastructure to remain competitive with other exporters. for various reasons this investment has been neglected for the last decade or two, but it’s not quite a turnkey fix to just decide to sell more oil.
whatshisface 8y ago
The oil reserves are in shambles too, due to as you said mismanagement. They are a special type of oil that requires extra investment to produce, and the government has failed to make those investments. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/01/29/charting-the-decline-of-venezuelas-oil-industry/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/01/29/charting-the...
rStar 8y ago
The economy of Venezuela lies in shambles due to US intervention and sanctions. Venezuela has very limited access to the world market.
- gspetr 8y ago
  Easily untrue. The US has been 40% of Venezuela's oil export[0]. If they wanted to, they could have obliterated Venezuela's economy in a second. [0] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d0/EEPPHOTO1.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d0/EEPPHOTO... P.S. I'm Russian and do not have the regional bias.
  - rStar 8y ago
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-rosneft-exclusive-idUSKCN1RU2A4 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-rosnef...

burger_moon 8y ago

It's not just Venezuela, look at what is happening in Haiti.

peisistratos 8y ago

The US government seized Venezuelan assets, then started sending US military to the Colombian side of the border. On top of numerous sanctions, calls for military revolt, dictation of who is president. Funny to see Bernie Sanders to Trump to the US press shaking their finger at Maduro and the US deciding who is president, then the US press goes back to bemoaning Russian involvement in US politics (of course the US NED interferes more in Russian elections than Russia ever did in US elections). Of course the UK seized Venezuela's assets too. Macron took a break from sending his goon squads to assault the yellow vest rural working class of his country to make maudlin statements about how Maduro treated the Venezuelan anti-Maduro protestors who are shooting and burning people to death in Caracas. "Populist" Italy was lambasted for preventing an EU United front for endorsing a new US/EU selection of who should run Venezuela. Meanwhile Brazil has Lula and the opposition locked up in prison, Obama backed the military coup in Honduras, presidential candidates assassinated , not the endless articles in the western press about problems there though, other than Hondurans are fleeing the chaos to the US border - then they appear on the US news. It's amusing to see the Macron yellow vest, Brexit/Corbyn, Trump/Bernie western nations, being overwhelmed by their own increasingly angry working class, performing some good old fashioned imperialism, to the maudlin squawks of liberal cheers.

luord 8y ago

I'm from Colombia and my family lives in one of the biggest cities that is relatively close to the border. I visit frequently and every time I visit, there are more and more venezuelan immigrants. This started happening years ago. I'm shocked by the people who pretend that this is all propaganda and that the venezuelan people are ok with their government. I'm sure that the people living on the streets here aren't.