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OECD Says 14% of Jobs Will Disappear in Next 10 Years
- andrenth 8y agoWe have also to consider how many currently nonexistent jobs will appear.
- crdoconnor 8y agoAccording to the last batch of BLS statistics "programmers" were disappearing and are being replaced by "software developers". Both referred to the same (although gradually evolving) thing but one term was starting to be seen as outdated while the other took over. There wasn't any real attempt to distinguish real change from name change as far as I could tell.
- WrtCdEvrydy 8y agoThe computing professions are going to get a shakeup as time goes. Companies are starting to wise up to the penny wise-pound foolish of quarterly results.
- friedman23 8y agocan you elaborate on how those two things are related?
- deogeo 8y agoPerhaps that has already been considered? It's hard to say from the interview.
- dpflan 8y agoSerious question, but silly premise: Are kids playing with AR/VR (unintentionally) preparing for future jobs?
- wutbrodo 8y agoI don't think the premise is silly, and I think the claim is obviously, even perhaps trivially, true. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that AR/VR interfaces will become more important, and kids interacting with new technology (esp new interfaces) in any time period are "unintentionally preparing for new jobs". Hell, I've never taken a typing class in my life, but I was a faster typer than most people by the time I hit college purely from the hours I wasted on AIM.
- imtringued 8y agoAre they playing realistic (at least to some degree) simulators or just games like fortnite?
- RickS 8y agoYes. Absolutely. Not only that, but just living in accordance with their own preferences prepares them for future jobs, since future jobs are second-order effects of changing cultural preferences. I didn't set out to work in software. I just did stuff that seemed fun on the computer and the rest of the world agreed that this was a thing we wanted to keep doing. I'm a designer, and the rise of mobile devices as a replacement for the computer is illustrative of these changes. There are roles in a modern design team where "I don't know a damn thing about how desktops used to work – my default way of thinking is how this would work on an iPhone" is a cognitive feature as much as it's a shortcoming. I expect this will be true of many things, AR/VR being one, mmorpg/highly-online-third-space being another. I feel old for only caring about offline singleplayer campaign. The next generation of game designers will mentally default to fortnight's group interaction model. In this way, deeply understanding fortnight etc is absolutely preparing kids for the future of not only gaming, but document authoring, telepresence, and who the hell knows what else.
- pesmhey 8y agoThe unfortunate part about this is when a child isn’t allowed to follow their inclinations, in effort to keep up with today’s preferences. Happens so often and it’s super sad. But yeah, fortnite, it’s pretty much team activities in the 21st century. People who’ve never had to perform complex tasks over the internet just won’t get it.
- village-idiot 8y agoAt what rate?
- seibelj 8y agoIt wouldn't surprise me if 14% of existing jobs disappear every 10 years. Pick any 10 year window and the jobs at the beginning will be different than the jobs at the end, and most of the the jobs that remain will have different requirements.
- Teichopsia 8y agoIll bite. What jobs have disappeared in the last ten, twenty and thirty years?
- chillwaves 8y agoAccountants have massively changed. Excel can do what it took a room of accountants before. Tools that can mupliply the output of one perosn are "replacing" jobs.
- toyg 8y agoAnd still most accountants will have no trouble whatsoever finding a job.
- jerrysievert 8y agonot OP, but off the top of my head: * mainframe administrators * cobol developers * punchcard operators * manufacturing (in the united states) * car mechanics (huge decline as car quality has gone up) * mining (in the united states) * farmer that's without thinking too deeply about it ... i could think of more if you want. note that a lot of these are declines, as opposed to eliminations.
- jdjjdjjd 8y agoThere ares still jobs for cobol devs just like there are jobs for VB developers just a lot less COBOL jobs actually pay quite a bit
- docbrown 8y agoManufacturing jobs may have become less in numbers but they are no way near gone. So i’m not sure that really counts as a valid answer. Same with mechanics. These jobs are not gone but possibly shrunk in total # of jobs. Quality may have gone up but so has complexity of repairs. Now, farmers. Again, these jobs may have shrunk but the jobs are still there. I could count on both hands of families I know living in proximity to me that run family farms for business. You can drive 30 miles from me and go through three towns that are maintained because of farm land. edit: on mobile so didn’t see your decline != elimination note at first
- macando 8y agoDemand for Talent Converges on Critical Roles in the U.S., U.K. https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/demand-for-talent-converges-on-critical-roles-in-the-u-s-u-k/ https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/demand-for-talent... - 49% of all job postings by S&P 100 companies in 2018 were for just 39 roles. The remaining 51% were for 872 other roles. - 41% of all job postings by FTSE 100 companies in 2018 were for just 20 roles. The remaining 59% were for 641 other roles. - The most competitive roles are in critical functions across IT, research and development, marketing, sales and customer service.
- toyg 8y agoIt’s easy to postulate that advertised vacancies largely belong to two macro groups: scarcity-driven (IT, R&D) and churn-driven (sales, marketing, customer services). Many (most?) jobs are never advertised.
- microcolonel 8y agoWhat is the baseline? Don't a lot of jobs disappear in an average decade since the industrial revolution?
- vpcs111fm 8y agoWell, another recession will come in next 10 years (as always, it's a pattern), and 14% of people will be laid off. These are hardly an insight.
- patrickg_zill 8y agoDoesn't this argue against a large amount of immigration by the unskilled, into those countries which are already at high levels of youth unemployment?