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Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet
- leesec 8y agoAs was expected as they re-tooled the production line and started delivering internationally.
- matt4077 8y agoThis was possibly expectable. But it was not expected. Per their press release:”Because of the lower than expected delivery volumes…”
- splattern 8y agoOfficial statement for reference: http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla...
- bryanlarsen 8y agoEverybody knew this was coming: one month of deliveries on the boat to Europe, the availability of the 3 outside of North America affecting demand for the S & X outside of North America, and news of the Y Osborne'ing the X. The numbers for S/X are worse than expected, but I'm sure it's within the bounds of Tesla's planning scenarios.
- jsight 8y agoWell, yeah, parts of it were expected. The part about accelerating the shipping of cars to China because of soft demand was a little out of the blue, though.
- marvin 8y agoPlus delivery overhang after the 4th quarter. Some people surely must have accelerated their order to right before Christmas to take advantage of an additional $3750 tax credit.
- dgritsko 8y agoPre-market is... not looking very understanding this morning for $TSLA, to say the least.
- robjan 8y agoIf you look at the bigger picture, it's lost about one week of gains and it's been rising and falling 10% for a while now
- octorian 8y agoIt does often seem that any news report about TSLA "soaring" or "plummeting" turns out to really just be a small'ish osscilation. At this point I tend to take most of these with a grain of salt.
- jfoster 8y agoThe media tends to overstate how much a single story moves a stock. Not limited to Tesla, and I would say 10% is actually one of the larger movements than is typically associated with a single story within a day.
- octorian 8y agoNow we just need another (completely irrelevant) Elon pot scandal, and I can finally buy some TSLA on the cheap! (Kinda wish I thought to do that last time.)
- vkou 8y agoIt's relevant when he is: 1. A federal defense contractor, that is blatantly breaking a federal law. 2. Is firing people for doing the same thing that he himself is doing. It's the poster child for privilege, in the old nobility 'the law doesn't apply to me' sense of the word. You should be outraged about that... That is, if you believe in the rule of law.
- holoduke 8y agoBut still, the number of Tesla's driving around here in the Netherlands is just impressive. I do believe in a bright future for the Tesla car brand.
- wokkel 8y agoYou do realize that they were subsidized a lot. If you got in early and combined it with some other subsidies the 100k model S cost about 20k. Now that the subsidy is largely gone i'd be surprised if the sales stay that high. You see the same with the Mitsubishi Outlander: sales dropped to nearly zero after the hybrid subsidy was taken away.
- this_user 8y agoApparently, they have 10,000 cars in transit to customers right now as part of their international roll-out. Still came in worse than the worst analyst estimates. US deliveries of the M3 also tanked in January and February after a record December. March saw an uptick, but it's still far below the December number. But this has likely to do with the end of the subsidies.
- honopu 8y agoWell, they can only make so many cars. If 10000 are in transit, then that's 10000 they can't book as sold. It is interesting though that they can't count these as sales, as many companies do many things with deferring sales, I would think if they are in transit, they are (sold). If they are sending 10k cars there without them actually being sold, that would be something else entirely. Perhaps general acceptable accounting rules don't allow for booking sales before delivery, but I'd find that crazy to be the case.
- jsight 8y agoFrom the press release (at: http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla...): "We count a produced but undelivered vehicle to be in transit if the related customer has placed an order or paid the full purchase price for such vehicle." It sounds like it is count as sold, but not delivered. Production was 77100 which leaves about 3500 cars as both unsold and undelivered. That is only about half a week of production, but at the same time it implies softness in overall demand compared to the past.
- sschueller 8y agoTesla appears to have huge logistical issues in Europe and else where. From the mess with the delivery of Rich's [1] Model X or one German Youtubers[2] Model 3. Here is a video of Tesla's pilling up in a mall parking garage [3] At this rate the company will not exist very long even if they make the best car. Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when others do not have these issues? Who is in charge? [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxSQuGeoug8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxSQuGeoug8 [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5Q6iiQRgA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5Q6iiQRgA [3] https://twitter.com/gupamf/status/1113283728640368646 https://twitter.com/gupamf/status/1113283728640368646
- genie514 8y agoThis figure makes me wonder how other car manufacturers are able to generate demand. Honda alone sells 1m+ cars per year in the US. For all the news, Tesla will likely make 400k deliveries during entire year around the world.
- Brakenshire 8y agoThis is about deliveries, not demand. They still have a large backlog of orders, and they haven't even entered the European market yet.
- 3adawi 8y agois there any evidence they still have a backlog?? Seems like the only backlog left is countries they just began delivering to or haven't started deliveries there yet..no one knows how big that backlog is
- jsight 8y agoNo, there is no evidence of a backlog, outside of certain trims. The model 3 SR still has a backlog, by virtue of not having been made yet.
- waitingForTesla 8y agoIn Ontario Canada there are real wait times that are over a month for long range and AWD options for Model 3, even though the website falsely proclaims delivery within two weeks. I would define a wait time over a month (and counting) a backlog.
- jsight 8y agoThanks for that. I appreciate the additional data-point, as most of what I was seeing before was that there was pointing towards a possible inventory buildup in North America. If even the high end trims are actually in shorter supply than indicated, then maybe demand isn't so soft after all. It still leaves me with a lot of questions about Model X and S, but I think there are more reasonable theories there than a demand cliff.
- _red 8y agoHas anyone ever calculated the total environmental impact of a Tesla? It seems that Power Stations + Millions of Tons of mining for rare earth minerals must make this a mega-polluter?
- SEJeff 8y agoAdmittedly a biased source, but their reasoning seems sensible: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-greener-think-getting-greener-look-manufacturing/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-greener-think-getting-greene... As the cost of solar + wind + static storage drop, the more renewable energy sources are used to power factories. The more renewable source used to power factories, the greater the impact on the vehicle. In this, Tesla leads the way.
- _red 8y agoIt is helpful that the author quantified some of the issues, however there are many factors involved: * Does the authors CO2 estimates for battery production actually include "mining" or just "assembly"? From reading it, it seems to just include assembly of final components into a battery. * Moving tons of rare-earth minerals from Point A to Point B for battery production requires yet more CO2 output. * Wind + Solar still requires massive batteries somewhere, which still requires massive mining operations. Further, with $40 shale oil now a reality, its getting harder to make the economic case.
- brohee 8y agoWhich rare earth are you talking about, and in which quantity?
- _red 8y agoThose who really care about the environment, know that reuse and recycling are the best approaches. So, you could buy a 15-yr old Toyota or Hyundai, since that carbon footprint already exist. You shouldn't be needlessly creating more deadly CO2. Further, in terms of energy density: solar, wind, coal, natural gas all pack far less joules per gram than petroleum. These are inconvenient truths that unfortunately conflict with the slick marketing messages of your luxury golf cart salesman.
- mikorym 8y agoSo with a click baitey title, can we get a TLDR?
- baby 8y agoThese kind of posts are good publicity right? I don't see any other car company we follow so closely on the market. Tesla is the only name I can see come up again and again here, and guess what, most people on HN are the actual population that is buying teslas.
- karpodiem 8y agoI read HN, drive a Jeep Grand Cherokee, and short Tesla.
- sjwright 8y agoYou’re being sarcastic, right? What is the signal you’re trying to send by admitting to choosing one of the most unreliable car brands on the market?
- karpodiem 8y agoI live in Detroit and buy a vehicle that's produced at Jefferson and Connor, five miles from where I live. I feel good about that. The 3.6L V6 / and ZF eight speed transmission are battle tested - we're five years into the current Grand Cherokee iteration, they've mostly worked out the issues. The volume of TSBs (technical service bulletins - http://wk2jeeps.com/wk2_tsb.htm http://wk2jeeps.com/wk2_tsb.htm) are way lower vs. the launch model year. I haven't had any quality issues, although it's early. I would never buy the first (and maybe even second) model year for any OEM, but especially FCA - that part I would agree with. Wait until year three.
- philwelch 8y ago> battle tested Interesting choice of words, considering that the trucks used as technicals [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_(vehicle) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_(vehicle)] in actual battle tend to be Toyotas.
- rifung 8y ago> You’re being sarcastic, right? What is the signal you’re trying to send by admitting to choosing one of the most unreliable car brands on the market? Your statement is pretty closed minded. What if they just like the car enough they're willing to put up with the unreliability? That's like suggesting people who buy new cars are all idiots because the depreciation is much worse. Different people are allowed to have different priorities and tastes.
- thesimon 8y agohttp://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla... >we had only delivered half of the entire quarter’s numbers by March 21, ten days before end of quarter
- hartator 8y agoWonder of there is a way to buy these tesla with small defects.
- addflip 8y agoYes. If you go to a Tesla store they should be able to match you with these vehicles. Plenty of datapoints on r/teslamotors
- wyldfire 8y agoAbsolutely, Tesla will be motivated to sell this inventory that can no longer be described as new vehicles. They can easily repair the reported problems and describe them as "re-certified" and you can probably get a significant discount (10%?).
- Klathmon 8y agoThe very next sentences give some context to the above quote: >This caused a large number of vehicle deliveries to shift to the second quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally. I'll be the first to admit I know fuck all about the financial stuff and how this normally works, but that seems like a reasonable explanation for the lower numbers. Especially since the 10k cars "in transit" is like 1/6th their total deliveries that quarter. I'd be curious to see hard numbers on how many of those deliveries were shifted to Q2, but i'm guessing we won't get that info until after Q2 is done?
- BaconJuice 8y agois now a good time to buy? [serious]
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- karpodiem 8y agoNow is a good time to buy put options.
- high_derivative 8y agoIs that not technically untrue as this is already priced, with options being very expensive due to high implied volatility now?
- marvin 8y agoYou'll know when your options expire ^_^
- mhermher 8y agoBetter yet, a great time to sell calls. Lots of believers that is gonna shoot back up and to the moon.
- dragontamer 8y agoExcept Elon Musk has been prone to make tweets like "$420 Funding Secured", which would ruin your short-call position if it happened at the wrong time. The best move is to not play. There are literally thousands of other companies in the public market that are actually run by decent people. Musk clearly wants to "burn the shorts" and is willing to go to war with anyone who takes the bear bet. That's fine, just don't play the game at all. Buy and sell stocks from a more reputable company.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- refurb 8y agoInteresting tweet shows lots of Tesla's sitting in inventory after being rejected by customers or other problems. https://twitter.com/Latrilife/status/1113799586567426049 https://twitter.com/Latrilife/status/1113799586567426049
- zacharyautin11 8y agoIf Tesla loses consumer confidence would be a shame. Interesting balance between maintaining existing product vs building new products. I am waiting until Tesla is more reliable before purchasing
- mikeash 8y agoLooks like that entire account is dedicated to attacking Tesla. Can we believe it?
- justtopost 8y agoAs opposed to the hundreds astroturfing and greenwahing them? In a war of ideas, give everyone ammo. The truth is never exclusive to one view.
- mikeash 8y agoThat doesn’t answer my question at all.
- 0_gravitas 8y agoExceptional non-answer
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- mlthoughts2018 8y agoShould it matter? You can analyze this disparate piece of evidence independently of the agenda. In fact, you might even say that by putting the cards on the table, at least this source is transparent about which stance of the topic it is taking, giving you opportunity to take care when evaluating single pieces of evidence.. this is possibly better than sources which purport to be fair and balanced and go to greater lengths to obfuscate ways they are tacitly pushing an agenda. I don’t agree with the concept of forming a high-level conclusion about the general nature of a source of information, and then using that to argue that you should not separately carefully analyze disparate pieces of content from that source.
- zacharyautin11 8y agoWhat do you think is fair p/e? High share price is reflective as to the eAse that Tesla has raised capital. The trend is still very positive on increased revenue. Would be interested to know % of Tesla spend that didn’t go towards current prodcucts. Didn’t realize how agressive expansion was. Tesla seems like it has not exceeded its ability to repay debt but is taking increasing risks despite making electric car market viable. Building a semi prototype I guess is different than buying supercapacitator company for limitless recharge (prius style super capacitor battery to augment lithium ion power source) and building factories to actually build thousands of vehicles and now their batteries (Panasonic might lose monopoly) Integrated battery manufacture alongside vehicles/power users could be next step towards decreased costs.
- gre 8y agoIt feels wrong that they charge for autopilot when it's just software--they should give it away for free. This really affects how I feel about buying a Tesla when it's in the cart. I wonder if sales would go up if they just gave it away for free, and if the economics still work out.
- leesec 8y agoThis comment made my head hurt so bad. You pay for software all the time?
- gre 8y agoSure, it just feels wrong in this case. Who wants a Tesla without autopilot? If they're trying to sell as many as possible, give the software away for free.
- leesec 8y agoNow that you mention it, if they're trying to sell as many as possible, why not just give away the car for free? People love free cars.
- gre 8y agoThat's just bad for business.
- bdcravens 8y ago> Who wants a Tesla without autopilot? Those who don't want to be killed or injured when the autopilot steers into a wall or oncoming traffic?
- xedeon 8y agoApril fools was 3 days ago.
- xedeon 8y ago
- Proven 8y agoTime is running out for the crooked company. I predict it's assets will eventually be acquired by a company from China. Before that happens, however, they need to go bust. Probably 6-9 months from now.
- yumraj 8y agoI think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Something akin to Intel and computers, so that you can buy a car with Tesla inside. That will allow Tesla to focus on it's core strength and innovate while leaving the car manufacturing, QA, sales, support and such to traditional car companies.
- thebeefytaco 8y agoDidn't Tesla already open source all their patents?
- softwaredoug 8y agoThere’s a big difference between a patent and a working product
- yumraj 8y agoThere are patents and then there are trade secrets. I would guess that Tesla's trade secrets are equally or a lot more valuable, and perhaps pertain to manufacturing processes, than their patents.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- sangnoir 8y agoOnly if you never sue Tesla for anything - including them infringing your patents
- bksenior 8y agoYou think thats bad. Tesla is about to have to head to head with all the majors who are now starting to finally harvest about a decade of their own research in the space (prompted by Teslas early success). Musks ambitions and outbursts strike me as a man who suffers from the top killer of successful entrepreneurs, The skill/talent portability fallacy. It's this idea because you did something similar well, that your ability should port to "things like it." Seems like Tesla is going to extend itself to death.
- olivermarks 8y agohttps://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-outlook-2019/ https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-outlook-2019/ There are 3 million EVs on the road today, of which around 2 million reside in China
- gordon_freeman 8y agoIf I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been dragging down the stock way too much.
- jressey 8y agoAnd then I would just shrug my shoulders and buy more index funds. Investing in individual companies, no matter what you think you know, is always unwise compared to index investing.
- jumbopapa 8y agoIf anyone would like to know more about this please visit the Bogleheads Wiki [1] and join the forums [2]. I have found this community to be an invaluable resource in pursuing financial independence. [1] - https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page [2] - https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php
- weaklearner 8y agoor read a random walk down wallstreet
- jumbopapa 8y agoGreat recommendation! Also read The Millionaire Next Door if you want to get into the right mindset.
- weaklearner 8y agoThanks this book also looks good!
- Animats 8y agoThey had an order backlog, and they filled it. Now, like the rest of automotive, they're sales-limited. All the big US auto companies have been able to make more than they can sell since 1956. (In the spring of 1956, supply caught up with pent-up WWII demand. Then came the era of chrome.) Tesla is in a business where many customers just want to pay their money and drive away with a car. Not "preorder" and wait for months. If they get it right, you'll order on line and the car will show up in a few days. The loaner should show up the day you order.
- modzu 8y agoif you're in the market for a new car what makes you think being able to get one immediately is a priority? a car is one of the largest investments an average person will make. i love that i'm not going to be hustled by a car salesman (the archetype of the sleazy conman) and can make decisions independently when buying a tesla. honestly a few months seems really reasonable given the time spent making the decision?
- vkou 8y ago> if you're in the market for a new car what makes you think being able to get one immediately is a priority? Because I'm not buying a car for fun, I'm buying one because my old beater is giving up the ghost. > a car is one of the largest investments an average person will make. A car is not an investment. It's an expense. > i love that i'm not going to be hustled by a car salesman (the archetype of the sleazy conman) and can make decisions independently when buying a tesla. The last time I bought a (used) car, I walked into a dealership, told the salesman what model I wanted, and asked him to show me his inventory. I looked at some cars, test-drove one, he told me to make an offer, I did, and paid cash. I had to deal with exactly zero upsell pressure, all of five minutes of haggling, and to say 'no' twice to an offer to finance. Be upfront about what you want, that you're ready to buy if you like what you see, and don't take any bullshit. Your dealership experience will be much better for it.
- modzu 8y agobut this used car experience is not competing against a new tesla sales model..
- steelframe 8y agoData point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sale for Tesla. If they wanted to sell me another EV, they'd need to do several things differently. First, give me buttons for the common stuff I do. Stuff I do commonly is A/C, audio on/off, audio volume, suspension height, and driving mode (sport or comfort -- I share the car with a spouse who hates vroom vroom). Second, adopt CCS. I don't want to take a hard dependency on a proprietary charging infrastructure that entirely depends on a single company to keep it on life support. Third, stop lying to me about fully self-driving capabilities. While we're on the subject, sell me the car as it is now, rather than as you speculate you can make the car be in the future through a software update. Fourth, nail the fit-and-finish and the quality of the interior. For me, Jaguar got almost everything right in what they were shipping in Q1.
- solean 8y agoAudio controls are on the steering wheel (in the Model 3 at least)
- dustindiamond 8y agoIt is a bit overkill, though, no? It seems every option is enumerated as its own physical switch, knob, or lever.
- Wowfunhappy 8y agoI haven't driven a car since I was a teenager, but isn't this desirable for an interface that needs to be operated by sense of touch alone? (So you can keep your eyes on the road.)
- dustindiamond 8y ago
- ajross 8y ago> Tesla Inc. said new-vehicle deliveries in the first quarter fell 31% from the previous three months Wait a second, so this isn't a year-over-year number? Don't shipments of basically everything fluctuate seasonally? Is this even a meaningful metric? Alas, the paywall prevents me from knowing. But in general "people buy 31% more high end cars around the holidays" doesn't seem like a clearly incorrect hypothesis.
- iijj 8y agoPercent change in sales from Q4 2018 to Q1 2019 Tesla -30% (90,700 to 63,000) (deliveries) Bolt -30% (6212 to 4316) (sold) Leaf -33% (4029 to 2685) (sold) Source: ir.tesla.com, random news articles on quarterly automotive deliveries from google news.
- killion 8y agoAs a Tesla Model S owner I'm not at all surprised that the sales of the S and X are down. They are pushing the Model 3 hard, so hard that they dropped the reasonably priced S and X models from their lineup. There is a huge price gap between the 3 and the S now and the differences between the cars is so slight that it doesn't make sense to buy an S today. Even worse the S and X haven't had their interior update yet so they look old compared to the 3.
- dmode 8y agoTesla has come a long way when 70k cars manufactured and 63k delivered is considered a bad result. 10 years back they were making 10 cars a quarter
- xedeon 8y agoTesla vehicle deliveries in first quarter: Q1 2019: 63,000 Q1 2018: 29,980 Q1 2017: 25,000 Q1 2016: 14,820 Q1 2015: 10,045 Q1 2014: 6,457 Q1 2013: 4,900 Q1 2012: 0 Visual chart: https://twitter.com/EcoHeliGuy/status/1113648662054199297 https://twitter.com/EcoHeliGuy/status/1113648662054199297