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This is literally a $200 coffee vending machine with a $25,000$ arm to move the cup. Except the Wow effect, I don't see the value of this. This is a Emperor's
by arnaudsm 8y ago
This is literally a $200 coffee vending machine with a $25,000$ arm to move the cup. Except the Wow effect, I don't see the value of this.
This is a Emperor's New Clothes situation. No one dares to say how dumb this is, in fear of passing for a Luddite
- close04 8y agoI have to say I'm surprised at the accuracy at the title. It's indeed a coffee serving robot. It just takes it from the coffee machine and put's it on the counter. Somehow I imagined the robot going through the classic steps you might see a barista perform: grounding coffee and putting it in the portafilter, tamping, using the steam wand, etc. The things that might make the difference between a handmade coffee and one from a standard coffee machine.
- ovi256 8y agoBut why go the antropomorphic way of getting a robotized hand to copy the steps the barista makes ? It usually makes more sense to make a coffee machine that does those steps internally. It's easier in the controlled environment internal to a machine. A espresso coffee vending machine seems to be doing some of them already, like grinding the coffee. All it's lacking is a cup transport system like a conveyor belt to put the cup in from a cup stockpile and to later serve it. You could even automate recovering the cup, cleaning it and restoking it. Is there strong customer preference for a robot arm serving the cup rather than a conveyor belt ?
- close04 8y ago> But why go the anthropomorphic way of getting a robotized hand to copy the steps the barista makes ? I'd guess for the wow effect. Such a system is much harder to calibrate and maintain than a regular automation line. But a lot sexier also. Maybe the perception and experience of getting the cup from a robotic arm is more appealing to customers than getting it from a conveyor belt?
- mattkrause 8y agoWe went to a bar with an anthropomorphic robot bartender and it was fun to watch, especially since it “bantered” with the customers: it had a few jokes, did a little dance when certain music came on, and so on.
- edf13 8y agoI'm hoping the $25k is more than just the arm and is more for the entire retail ready unit as displayed on their website... which is not bad value
- sharemywin 8y agoEven at 30k for the coffee machines and 25k for the arm plus 5k for the enclose. 60k investment for $300/hr. Like $200 margin running even 12 hours a day. That's over 800k a year in the right location.
- jaclaz 8y agoAdd the cost of coffee, water (usually filtered/depurated), electric power, sugar, washing, ... ... and good luck to find a location that has customers needing 120 coffees/hout for 12 h each day of the year.
- Cthulhu_ 8y agoYeah they could save $25K by just putting down a coffee vending machine. Like at truck stops. I don't get the "they took our jobs" vibe from this video. Especially considering these things probably come with support contracts (and troubleshooting, maintenance, etc) that cost more than an employee, because it's specialized hardware.
- ElBarto 8y agoIn most of those chain coffee shops what you get is a coffee vending machine with a human arm to move the cup.
- chrisseaton 8y agoI'm not aware of any major chain coffee shop that uses coffee vending machines like that.
- ElBarto 8y agoWell, they can't make it too obvious, can they. But it is basically it. Employees do no more than employees at say, McDonald's. In fact probably less. Push a button, right amount of coffee pours into cup. Move cup. Push button, right amount of milk pours into cup. Move cup. Replacing people by robots will make no difference to the final product. What we need to wait and see is whether consumers want to be served by a human or whether they don't care. We'll have an answer very soon because for fast food and coffee shops there's just a couple of years before humans become operationally optional. Personally, in a high end place where staff adds value I will care, but I couldn't care less in a Costa Coffee or McDonald's.
- chrisseaton 8y ago> Employees do no more than employees at say, McDonald's. In fact probably less. Push a button, right amount of coffee pours into cup. Move cup. Push button, right amount of milk pours into cup. Move cup. I don't know what places you're talking about. Everywhere I've seen they use an espresso machine which isn't a case of 'push a button, right amount of coffee pours into cup', even places like Costa.
- ElBarto 8y agoI observed in Costa and others... Even when they use en espresso machine (because perhaps you ordered an espresso), it makes no difference to the final product if that is automated entirely. A standard espresso machine requires a human only because it cannot automatically reload coffee. The simple fact is that at this point humans are really only there for the 'experience', not to create the final product.
- bhouston 8y agoI disagree. Starbucks and similar needs to be automated, at least partially, while maintaining the premium it charges on a per cup basis. That means that it would need to keep the traditional expresso machines and process that people believe they are paying for -- if they just replace those with large blockly traditional coffee machine people will stop going to Starbucks because they are no longer a premium differentiated solution. You need to keep the premium that Starbucks customers pay for and that is using traditional methods with lots of customization options. Making coffee at Starbucks is sort of a performance, and that is remaining because that is what people are paying for. You are misunderstanding Starbuck and the premium coffee experience completely. I think that something like this will succeed at the medium-high end. But "artisan" premium coffee that is hand made at an espresso machine will remain but it will likely get even more expensive. Remember that we have already automated pretty fully the low end coffee market with Nespresso, Kurig, etc. I think you are completely wrong, there is a market for this.
- supermatt 8y agoWell, I disagree thats its a $200 coffee machine, but theres no way on earth this needs to be an arm emulating a human user on existing machines. Im pretty sure you could buy a "premium" commercial automatic coffee machine for less than the cost of the arm - in fact, thats what the arm appears to be operating!
- supermatt 8y agoLooks like I misunderstood GP. He's pointing out that all the arm is doing is moving cup and pressing buttons on automatic coffee machine too. I agree, this isn't anything special, this is just a robotic arm performing simple manoeuvres.
- renholder 8y agoThe majority of your argument seems to be Starbucks provides a sort of performance art, which can't be replaced by machines and, whilst partially true, the general idea of automation is "fire and forget". I pay €29K (gotta love the exchange rate, right now) for a machine which will replace a worker that I probably pay for year the same service. Sure it's not "artisanal" but, given enough time to tweak the machine's behaviours, it could be. For the lower-end markets, definitely, it would be a god-send (in the ROI sense); however, I think your arguments of dissuasion that Starbucks would never do this are akin to the arguments of high-end car manufacturers never moving to automation to build vehicles. Put succinctly: If the end-goal of business is to increase the profit-marigin (which it is), then someone, somewhere will find a way to make that happen and this would be, in general, no exception to that rule. Eventually, they'll hit that sweet spot to make it work; even if it's slightly sub-par from the quality of today's product.
- chewz 8y agoRobot arms are surprisingly expensive. This seems like a low-end robot arm. > Today, an industrial robotic arm can cost anywhere from $25,000 to $400,000. [1] [1] https://insights.globalspec.com/article/4788/what-is-the-real-cost-of-an-industrial-robot-arm https://insights.globalspec.com/article/4788/what-is-the-rea...
- hwillis 8y agoLow-end arms are ~5k. This is just quite small, a Mitsubishi RV-FR series, payload ~5 kg. 300k+ robots are things like the KUKA KR1000 ("Titan"), which can literally toss around cars. It's got 200x higher payload for <20x the cost; if anything small arms are overpriced (they are- the only current use cases are pharmacies, low-end semiconductors and medicine). Anyway, Mitsubishi is well respected and this is a very good arm. [1]: https://us.mitsubishielectric.com/fa/en/products/industrial-robots-melfa/vertical-type-robot/rv-fr-series/rv-fr-series https://us.mitsubishielectric.com/fa/en/products/industrial-...
- dalbasal 8y agoA coffee shop is 33% drinks and snacks, 33% theatre and experience and 33% location and/or pleasant lounging space and such. Maybe at the best end, a barista makes a better cuppa than a good machine but most of the places near where I am now wouldn't pass a blind test Vs the automated coffee machine at my office. Automated coffee-making exist, and works just fine. Still, €1 vending machines haven't killed the €3 coffee shops/stands/trucks. Empirically, people want the (subjective) experience, not cheap coffee. This is a novel, theatrical way of doing the experience. Besides those relatively banal points... it's kind of cool that they're putting robotic arms into public-facing consumer land. Not sure it leads anywhere, but I'd get a cuppa and watch it work as I sip.
- LanceH 8y agoI think the robot might improve on the experience by not correcting me when I order a large.
- Liquid_Fire 8y agoIn my experience, most vending machines produce far inferior drinks to most coffee shops. If they could match the quality I would happily get my drinks from them, whether they're in a coffee shop or not.
- notahacker 8y agoThis. I keep making the point every time it gets raised in a "the robots are coming for our jobs" thread, but we had the technology to vend fast food to people putting coins in slots before we had McDonalds etc, whose laser focus on margins proved the business case for counter staff and killed off most of the Automats. Needless to say, the perception of a pleasant coffee shop offering good service worth paying extra for and superior quality coffee is more intrinsically linked to its staff than the fast food industry. In terms of theatrics and novelty this super-expensive machine is a massive improvement on the vending machine and can probably justify a $3 coffee instead of a $1 coffee, but it isn't going to kill the traditional coffee shop either, because the novelty is directly proportional to how rare they are....
- 8y ago
- Luc 8y agoA good commercial espresso machine of the size and type they're using can cost $15,000 and more, by the way. E.g. https://upscalecoffee.com/products/la-cimbali-s30-perfect-touch https://upscalecoffee.com/products/la-cimbali-s30-perfect-to... I'm sure it can be done cheaper, but not $200 cheap.
- throwawaymath 8y agoYeah espresso machines are nuts. How has YC not yet funded a coffee machine startup to "democratize" upscale espresso?
- gjjones125 8y agoI think that already exists in the form of Nespresso. I have one in my kitchen and I prefer it to what I get at a coffee place minus the experience.
- hn_throwaway_99 8y agoKickstarter is a graveyard of many overhyped and then under-delivered (or non-delivered) espresso machines. The problem is that Nespresso already exists, and is good for 95% of the market. The rest of the 5% of espresso aficionados demand tons of features that are not cheap to produce, and the market is inherently not that big. There are machines like https://decentespresso.com/overview https://decentespresso.com/overview (I believe they picked up the IP of an infamously undelivered Kickstarter) and https://www.breville.com/us/en/products/espresso/bes980.html https://www.breville.com/us/en/products/espresso/bes980.html
- crispyambulance 8y agoYeah, they did pick up the IP of one of the most disastrous kick-starters ever. It seems plausible, you know, that someone could make a machine like that, but at the end of the day it's all about the espresso head and quality of the build. By the time they figured it out, I think, they were no better than well-established prosumer models in price and performance.
- 8y ago
- anthonybsd 8y ago>This is literally a $200 coffee vending machine with a $25,000$ arm to move the cup. Having watched this (https://www.businessinsider.com/robot-barista-reveals-dangerous-rise-of-automation-2018-5 https://www.businessinsider.com/robot-barista-reveals-danger...) I tend to agree with you. Coffee making is a business of diminishing returns and quickly rising costs. You can do an acceptable espresso with a $200 espresso machine. However to make an amazing cappuccino/latte you need to go to at least $5000-$6000 price point. Separate boilers, precise pressure monitoring and all that jazz. The reason for that is that steaming milk is not a very easy job for a robot.
- hanklazard 8y agoI agree with your larger point about diminishing returns but I’d have to disagree with the price point of making an “amazing” espresso or latte. My $800 home espresso setup makes drinks that are at least on-par with the local 3rd wave shops (although my latte art is pretty bland). To me, the reason for those very expensive latte machines at the shops is volume (pulling multiple espresso’s simultaneously) and durability— my gaggia definitely couldn’t handle hundreds of drinks per day.
- anthonybsd 8y agoDo you mind sharing which one you have?
- hanklazard 8y agoSure, its the Gaggia Classic. I bought it refurb a few years ago and it's been very solid. I modded the steam wand, which is done a lot and I would recommend if you go this route. Here's a tutorial: http://www.gaggiausersgroup.com/index.php?topic=1484.0 http://www.gaggiausersgroup.com/index.php?topic=1484.0 Remember that a proper grinder is at least as important as a decent espresso machine. I've been through a few but have finally found the excellent Rancilio Rocky Doserless, which was also refurbished. A few other accessories like a bottomless portafilter, a knock box, and a milk pitcher for steaming, some good beans and you're pretty much set. I think my whole setup was less than $600 and I have never regretted it. It takes some time to dial in your grind but you'll be beating your local barista's shots within a few months (and at a significant discount).
- bArray 8y agoIt's only a $25k arm if it doesn't need regular parts replacements, which it probably will. In my opinion, in order for robots to be mass profitable they either need to be faster, better or run longer. This machine seems to do none of those things. Novelty factor only has value whilst it's novel.
- benj111 8y ago120 cups an hour is one every 30 seconds, I'm not sure a barrista could keep that up, if they could actually reach that speed to begin with. I'm not sure what you mean by "run longer", it wouldn't get tired if that's what you mean. Agreed its probably a novelty though.
- Udik 8y agoI can assure you that a barista in Italy can easily reach that number. And do many other things in between. (In the Netherlands it's probably three cups an hour, with looking at the ceiling or the floor in between).
- benj111 8y agoPossibly, depends on the drinks. Espressos? probably. Large lattes? Not so much. Steaming the milk would kill the throughput too much. I would guess that the Italian would do a much higher proportion of shorter and smaller drinks.
- Udik 8y agoNot too sure about the "large latte", which in Italy might only translate to "cappuccino" (and it's not that large). Anyway, apparently two baristas from Milan have the world record of 623 espresso cups/ hour. :)
- jaclaz 8y agoI believe a "large latte" is more similar to what in Italy is a "latte macchiato" (though as you say is not very "large"[1]) than to a "cappuccino". [1] "normal" bars in Italy only have two sizes of cups, one (smaller) for the espresso and one (larger) for the cappuccino (used also for tea, chocolate, ginseng, etc.). Large mug-sized cups normally exists only in homes where traditionally you have a caffelatte with bread or biscuits at breakfast (or sometimes instead of dinner)
- baybal2 8y ago> $25,000 That's an annual salary of a coffee server
- crispyambulance 8y agoTo be fair, it looks like a commercial espresso machine not unlike what Starbucks would use. Those alone are well above $25K. The 25K is likely just the robot arm itself, and not even the espresso machine, grinder, enclosure, payment system, and bean hopper/dispenser.
- jkravitz61 8y agoReal commercial espresso machines are still a very manual process for many reasons. This is something you’d see in the micro kitchen of an office or an airport lounge, not a Starbucks.
- asimpletune 8y agoI don’t know how good the vending machine’s coffee is, but there’s a cafex close by and it’s pretty dang good.