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Volkswagen’s Costly Bet on Electric Cars

81 points by prostoalex 8y ago

neonate 8y ago
https://outline.com/7a25Eh https://outline.com/7a25Eh
ed312 8y ago
TFA doesn't seem to add much new information to an old news story - am I missing something?
baybal2 8y ago
Wv is currently close to nowhere in electric cars, and few advances they got are in China, where SAIC makes thinks for them...
melling 8y ago
Doesn’t China have EV quotas from 2019 onward for manufacturers? If you don’t produce EVs, you’ll be restricted from the market?
- baybal2 8y ago
  Yes, in some cities in China, EVs are already effectively the only car type that can get a new numberplace.
leowoo91 8y ago
I started to worry about attitude of these articles, instead of reading it.
marsRoverDev 8y ago
It'll be more costly for them if the EU ban all combustion consumer vehicles and VW are left unable to sell to the european market. That is beside the point that the author of this article will be on the wrong side of history.
- forinti 8y ago
  I doubt that decisions of this magnitude are taken in spite of the big players or without their participation.
  - Dahoon 8y ago
    Calling it a ban is a bit over the top but it is going in that direction. Many cities in the EU are banning cars that pollute a lot. I've no doubt the definition of how bad they have to pollute will be tightened over time. If you are a carmaker with no electric cars it will be the same as a ban in the end. Most (all?) countries in the EU are also either lowering/removing registration taxes on electric cars or raising it on everything else. So the decision has already been made. We are basically just in a grace period.
  - adrianN 8y ago
    The big players in this case are Global Warming and air quality in cities, not the car manufacturers.
  - CalRobert 8y ago
    A shame, that. A company with a large investment in a technology that causes immense harm is probably not one you want to consult on ongoing policy. Dieselgate killed people. If they'd dumped poison in the water supply and lied about it the reaction would've been far harsher, but apparently it's ok to poison people via the air.
    - dsfyu404ed 8y ago
      VW also causes immense employment and brings an immense amount of money into Germany. It's not that simple. Germany isn't a dictatorship. They can't take unilateral action that harms its populace and say "just deal, it's good for you in the long run"
      - CalRobert 8y ago
        But.... volkswagen can?
CalRobert 8y ago
Paywalled; thought HN didn't permit these links?
ProAm 8y ago
Not any more costly than their bet on diesel
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
sigi45 8y ago
Why is that even an issue? Build a electric car which needs less components, less repair and can actually be refuelled at home. In worst case, put a range extender into it. Doesn't cost much and just burns fuel as before. The only risk could be that batterie technology just suddenly stops. But i would argue that its quite a save bet. And it doesn't has to do anything with saving the environment. There is obvious a technolgy change happening. It might be unclear how long it still takes or if global warming hits us quicker but sitll.
- prevedmedved 8y ago
  > needs less components, No. > less repair No. > and can actually be refuelled at home. No.
  - sigi45 8y ago
    Should we keep this game and play who can say yes and no or would you like to elaborate?
    - ip26 8y ago
      I don't know, I don't see how you're coming back from his savage & well-reasoned deconstruction of your core argument.
  - dang 8y ago
    Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments to Hacker News? We're trying for slightly higher discussion quality here. In addition to https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html, you might also find these links helpful for getting the spirit of this site: https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html https://news.ycombinator.com/hackernews.html https://news.ycombinator.com/hackernews.html http://www.paulgraham.com/trolls.html http://www.paulgraham.com/trolls.html http://www.paulgraham.com/hackernews.html http://www.paulgraham.com/hackernews.html
- pfortuny 8y ago
michaelbuckbee 8y ago
Is there any credible doubt that electric cars are the future? We can quibble about timing, regulatory vs customer preference factors, models, etc. but it's clear from all the data I've seen that EVs (and specifically plug in EVs) are growing at a fast clip and are on the way to becoming mainstream and unremarkable within the next decade or two. If you were a big auto company, what wouldn't you spend to not lose out on that wave? I look at other industries where fundamental underlying technology changes remade the landscape: the switch to mobile phones, internet penetration, etc.
- Misdicorl 8y ago
  I think comparing the switch from gas to EV to internet/mobile phones is quite the stretch. There's nothing really new or different about an EV. The car market isn't going to experience several orders of magnitude growth spurred by EVs. Most buyers will compare across engine types. So to answer your question >If you were a big auto company, what wouldn't you spend to not lose out on that wave I'd spend nothing until the EV I can produce is expected to have profit margins on the order of my other vehicles in that class, discounted at maybe 30-50% of the development cost. Note that brand recognition/green efforts/etc gets wrapped up into the profit margin calculation. The nail in the coffin here is that early movers get penalized unless they can effectively vertically integrate all the tech used for EVs (e.g. Tesla with their battery specialization). If you want to bet on the battery tech getting commoditized, its in your interest to wait as long as possible.
  - martythemaniak 8y ago
    The problem with this view is that it assumes the EV/ICE differences are a simple swap, akin to moving from a I4 to a V6. The switch to an EV drivetrain has lead to a much more through redesign of cars and none of the first gen batteries-bolted-onto-existing-chasis type EVs were particularly good. That is, if you don't get on the EV wave early and just wait for cheap batteries, you will be years behind your competitors in producing a properly thought-out EV and will be facing some very tough times.
    - 8y ago
olivermarks 8y ago
'Is there any credible doubt that electric cars are the future?' I think in the near term yes. Hybrid is the only viable next generation of vehicles, with full EV possibly after that.
- wnorris 8y ago
  Hybrid was only a stop gap until batteries reached the point they are today. In markets (California and Norway in particular) where there is significant EV growth you are seeing Hybrid sales drop quickly.
  - KSteffensen 8y ago
    I have a hybrid (from VW), my next car will be full EV. I expect to buy this within a one or two years.
    - olivermarks 8y ago
      I'm in California. EVs are a tiny niche market, battery tech still has massive mileage and safety issues to overcome and the grid is not fit for purpose in most parts of the world. China are building out scale EV infrastructure and since they are the main global market for vehicles going forward it seems inevitable they will ultimately own the EV transportation and infrastructure markets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_grid_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_grid_in_China
thstart 8y ago
A lot of coal needs to be burned so the electric cars to be able to run. So - electric cars run in coal :)
pmarreck 8y ago
I am not a paying WSJ customer, can anyone provide the text or a link that works? (Note: Considering being a WSJ customer, but already a NYT customer so...)
- Errsher 8y ago
  Don't do it, if you live anywhere other than California they basically make it impossible to unsubscribe.
- devy 8y ago
  https://outline.com/7a25Eh https://outline.com/7a25Eh
devy 8y ago
> No other car maker is betting anything like this kind of money on the new technology. In fact, all German automakers are increasing leaning towards all EV future, that's VW Group, BMW AG and Daimler AG. The only holdout of major automakers that doesn't have significant buyin in 100% battery electric vehicle is Toyato.
- dwd 8y ago
  Volkswagen Group was pushed as much as taking a bet. Part of their settlement for the diesel emissions scandal was committing investments into EV and paying into funds to help US states transition. On top of that they basically destroyed their diesel business. And they were also not the only cheats. A few commentators have pointed out that if not for the scandal, we probably wouldn't have seen anything near as aggressive a push into switching from diesel vehicles to electric.
pmarreck 8y ago
I find it fascinating that this seems to at least in part be a reaction to the scandal. Like a spouse whose indiscretion is found out and then decides to radically "come clean" about literally everything, having your screwup discovered might end up making you a better entity :)
woodandsteel 8y ago
If you ran into the wsj's paywall, you can get past it with outline.com

81 points by prostoalex 8y ago

neonate 8y ago

https://outline.com/7a25Eh https://outline.com/7a25Eh

ed312 8y ago

TFA doesn't seem to add much new information to an old news story - am I missing something?

baybal2 8y ago

Wv is currently close to nowhere in electric cars, and few advances they got are in China, where SAIC makes thinks for them...

melling 8y ago

Doesn’t China have EV quotas from 2019 onward for manufacturers? If you don’t produce EVs, you’ll be restricted from the market?

baybal2 8y ago
Yes, in some cities in China, EVs are already effectively the only car type that can get a new numberplace.

leowoo91 8y ago

I started to worry about attitude of these articles, instead of reading it.

marsRoverDev 8y ago

It'll be more costly for them if the EU ban all combustion consumer vehicles and VW are left unable to sell to the european market. That is beside the point that the author of this article will be on the wrong side of history.

forinti 8y ago
I doubt that decisions of this magnitude are taken in spite of the big players or without their participation.
- Dahoon 8y ago
  Calling it a ban is a bit over the top but it is going in that direction. Many cities in the EU are banning cars that pollute a lot. I've no doubt the definition of how bad they have to pollute will be tightened over time. If you are a carmaker with no electric cars it will be the same as a ban in the end. Most (all?) countries in the EU are also either lowering/removing registration taxes on electric cars or raising it on everything else. So the decision has already been made. We are basically just in a grace period.
- adrianN 8y ago
  The big players in this case are Global Warming and air quality in cities, not the car manufacturers.
- CalRobert 8y ago
  A shame, that. A company with a large investment in a technology that causes immense harm is probably not one you want to consult on ongoing policy. Dieselgate killed people. If they'd dumped poison in the water supply and lied about it the reaction would've been far harsher, but apparently it's ok to poison people via the air.
  - dsfyu404ed 8y ago
    VW also causes immense employment and brings an immense amount of money into Germany. It's not that simple. Germany isn't a dictatorship. They can't take unilateral action that harms its populace and say "just deal, it's good for you in the long run"
    - CalRobert 8y ago
      But.... volkswagen can?

CalRobert 8y ago

Paywalled; thought HN didn't permit these links?

ProAm 8y ago

Not any more costly than their bet on diesel

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

sigi45 8y ago

Why is that even an issue? Build a electric car which needs less components, less repair and can actually be refuelled at home. In worst case, put a range extender into it. Doesn't cost much and just burns fuel as before. The only risk could be that batterie technology just suddenly stops. But i would argue that its quite a save bet. And it doesn't has to do anything with saving the environment. There is obvious a technolgy change happening. It might be unclear how long it still takes or if global warming hits us quicker but sitll.

prevedmedved 8y ago
> needs less components, No. > less repair No. > and can actually be refuelled at home. No.
- sigi45 8y ago
  Should we keep this game and play who can say yes and no or would you like to elaborate?
  - ip26 8y ago
    I don't know, I don't see how you're coming back from his savage & well-reasoned deconstruction of your core argument.
- dang 8y ago
  Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments to Hacker News? We're trying for slightly higher discussion quality here. In addition to https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html, you might also find these links helpful for getting the spirit of this site: https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html https://news.ycombinator.com/hackernews.html https://news.ycombinator.com/hackernews.html http://www.paulgraham.com/trolls.html http://www.paulgraham.com/trolls.html http://www.paulgraham.com/hackernews.html http://www.paulgraham.com/hackernews.html
pfortuny 8y ago

michaelbuckbee 8y ago

Is there any credible doubt that electric cars are the future? We can quibble about timing, regulatory vs customer preference factors, models, etc. but it's clear from all the data I've seen that EVs (and specifically plug in EVs) are growing at a fast clip and are on the way to becoming mainstream and unremarkable within the next decade or two. If you were a big auto company, what wouldn't you spend to not lose out on that wave? I look at other industries where fundamental underlying technology changes remade the landscape: the switch to mobile phones, internet penetration, etc.

Misdicorl 8y ago
I think comparing the switch from gas to EV to internet/mobile phones is quite the stretch. There's nothing really new or different about an EV. The car market isn't going to experience several orders of magnitude growth spurred by EVs. Most buyers will compare across engine types. So to answer your question >If you were a big auto company, what wouldn't you spend to not lose out on that wave I'd spend nothing until the EV I can produce is expected to have profit margins on the order of my other vehicles in that class, discounted at maybe 30-50% of the development cost. Note that brand recognition/green efforts/etc gets wrapped up into the profit margin calculation. The nail in the coffin here is that early movers get penalized unless they can effectively vertically integrate all the tech used for EVs (e.g. Tesla with their battery specialization). If you want to bet on the battery tech getting commoditized, its in your interest to wait as long as possible.
- martythemaniak 8y ago
  The problem with this view is that it assumes the EV/ICE differences are a simple swap, akin to moving from a I4 to a V6. The switch to an EV drivetrain has lead to a much more through redesign of cars and none of the first gen batteries-bolted-onto-existing-chasis type EVs were particularly good. That is, if you don't get on the EV wave early and just wait for cheap batteries, you will be years behind your competitors in producing a properly thought-out EV and will be facing some very tough times.
  - 8y ago

olivermarks 8y ago

'Is there any credible doubt that electric cars are the future?' I think in the near term yes. Hybrid is the only viable next generation of vehicles, with full EV possibly after that.

wnorris 8y ago
Hybrid was only a stop gap until batteries reached the point they are today. In markets (California and Norway in particular) where there is significant EV growth you are seeing Hybrid sales drop quickly.
- KSteffensen 8y ago
  I have a hybrid (from VW), my next car will be full EV. I expect to buy this within a one or two years.
  - olivermarks 8y ago
    I'm in California. EVs are a tiny niche market, battery tech still has massive mileage and safety issues to overcome and the grid is not fit for purpose in most parts of the world. China are building out scale EV infrastructure and since they are the main global market for vehicles going forward it seems inevitable they will ultimately own the EV transportation and infrastructure markets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_grid_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_grid_in_China

thstart 8y ago

A lot of coal needs to be burned so the electric cars to be able to run. So - electric cars run in coal :)

pmarreck 8y ago

I am not a paying WSJ customer, can anyone provide the text or a link that works? (Note: Considering being a WSJ customer, but already a NYT customer so...)

Errsher 8y ago
Don't do it, if you live anywhere other than California they basically make it impossible to unsubscribe.
devy 8y ago
https://outline.com/7a25Eh https://outline.com/7a25Eh

devy 8y ago

> No other car maker is betting anything like this kind of money on the new technology. In fact, all German automakers are increasing leaning towards all EV future, that's VW Group, BMW AG and Daimler AG. The only holdout of major automakers that doesn't have significant buyin in 100% battery electric vehicle is Toyato.

dwd 8y ago
Volkswagen Group was pushed as much as taking a bet. Part of their settlement for the diesel emissions scandal was committing investments into EV and paying into funds to help US states transition. On top of that they basically destroyed their diesel business. And they were also not the only cheats. A few commentators have pointed out that if not for the scandal, we probably wouldn't have seen anything near as aggressive a push into switching from diesel vehicles to electric.

pmarreck 8y ago

I find it fascinating that this seems to at least in part be a reaction to the scandal. Like a spouse whose indiscretion is found out and then decides to radically "come clean" about literally everything, having your screwup discovered might end up making you a better entity :)

woodandsteel 8y ago

If you ran into the wsj's paywall, you can get past it with outline.com