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Although the price may be getting lower, I was lucky enough to hear a presentation from the head of Automotive Engineering at the University of Windsor. The pro
by alphakilo 8y ago
Although the price may be getting lower, I was lucky enough to hear a presentation from the head of Automotive Engineering at the University of Windsor. The professor conveyed that there are many other issues for power storage such as a limited amounts of cobalt and difficulty in retrieving it.
I inquired about what is likely to happen as cobalt is a relatively scarce resource if we are looking to use it for powering our world. He said he is sure that they [researchers] will find some substitute, but right now there is none.
As the scarcity of other elements in power storage increase, it may drive up the prices, even if the lithium itself can be sourced.
- grecy 8y agoA tweet from Elon a while back said the next-generation of Tesla batteries will contain no Cobalt.
- jfk13 8y agoAnd as we all know, Elon's tweets are the gold standard of reliable forward-looking information. /s
- newnewpdro 8y agoLow cobalt content in their battery design is one of the Tesla industry advantages currently, and as mentioned in another comment here Elon has already said they'll need no cobalt in the near future.
- benj111 8y agoIs that actually a Tesla advantage? Panasonic manufacture the cells, do they not own the ip etc? I suppose its a current Tesla advantage, Panasonic are signing contracts with other manufacturers though, so it isn't really a defensible moat.
- InTheArena 8y agoThe chemistry is actually specified by Tesla, not by Panasonic. It is specific to them. How much of an advantage is it? That remains to be seen, but given the efficiency wins of Tesla over its competitors this year, it seems defensible.
- Obi_Juan_Kenobi 8y agoThe Panasonic/Tesla relationship breaks down to: * Tesla chemistry, pack design, and use. * Panasonic manufacturing equipment and expertise. I don't think Tesla is unassailable here, but they do have a significant head start.
- newnewpdro 8y agoFor how long, who knows, but Tesla has a battery advantage today with their NCA cells using substantially less cobalt than the ubiquitous NCM cells competitors use. [1] I don't think any advantage in battery tech today could possibly hold for another 5-10 years considering how much competition and active research there is. We hear about major battery breakthroughs in the news every few months, presumably some of these will reach consumers in the coming decades. [1] https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/10/18/1580111-15398402761397855.png https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/10/18/1580111-1...
- xbmcuser 8y agoWell Tesla is doing its own research as well plus what I have read Tesla is always on the lookout for any viable improvement in battery tech. They just bought a startup that would improve its batteries
- samcheng 8y agoThe article has a price sensitivity analysis for cobalt, which suggested that a doubling of cobalt prices would result in a meager 2.4% increase in battery prices. That cobalt price increase would open new mines, so I’m not too worried about that one. It’s a good article!
- Scoundreller 8y agoDoes it assume equal distribution of cobalt supply? What I mean is, if demand goes up, but the cobalt suppliers are all on long-term contracts with manufacturers, could the manufacturers then drive up price since they control the essential inputs?
- marcosdumay 8y ago- There is more than one manufacturer currently on the market, so they can not drive up the prices unless they get into some risky collusion. - Doubling the price of a mineral does generally causes many new suppliers to appear.
- Scoundreller 8y agoI’ll have to trademark “Lithium Producinf Exporting Countries” before they do. How is collusion risky? Seems worth trying. Restrict supply, jack up prices, maybe lose 20% of your sales by weight, but make it up with revenue.
- benj111 8y agoYou can get lithium from sea water. Cartels work for oil because nation states physically control it. You cant enforce a cartel where all non land locked countries can compete with you if they choose. And for businesses cartels are illegal in most of the largest markets so that won't work either.
- Scoundreller 8y ago
- pkulak 8y agoIs cobalt really that rare, or are there just not a lot of mines right now because it hasn't been valuable before? The price of cobalt can triple and it won't add much to battery prices, since it's not that much of the pack. That price, however, will sure make building more mines a good idea.
- WhompingWindows 8y agoIt's mainly mined from the "Democratic Republic" of the Congo, which is a violent country that uses unethical practices in its mining industry. There is speculation to find non-DRC sources of Cobalt, however it's been mentioned in EV articles numerous times in the last few years.
- aikah 8y ago> It's mainly mined from the "Democratic Republic" of the Congo, which is a violent country that uses unethical practices in its mining industry. That's a euphemism for child slave workforce.
- vpribish 8y agothat is who produces most of it today, but it is widely distributed, being found wherever copper and nickel are. Among the top producers after DRC and Russia are Australia and Canada - so there's not going to be some cobalt catastrophe.
- prolepunk 8y agoYes, like Cobalt, Ontario. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt,_Ontario https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt,_Ontario Silver boom town at the begging of 20th century turned into ghost town when the mines have run out of silver, now might turn into boom town again because of how cobalt is used in battery manufacturing.
- iron0013 8y agoHey, just so you know, it seems that you've been hellbanned/shadowbanned. So when you're posting, most people can't see you or respond to you, and your posts are automatically flagged and "killed". It looks like it happened about 7 months ago when you posted some comments about not liking Nazis. Very strange that you're being punished for being vocal about disliking Nazis!
- WhompingWindows 8y agoYou're counting on an inelastic demand for Cobalt. The reality is that every single BEV maker is looking to reduce its cobalt demand. To assume that the innovators in this innovative field are not innovating is not a safe assumption.
- agumonkey 8y agoSomeone said Musk tweeted a while back that future batteries would be cobalt free.
- toomuchtodo 8y agohttps://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1006968985760366592 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1006968985760366592 (Elon Musk: "We use less than 3% cobalt in our batteries & will use none in next gen")
- agumonkey 8y agoThanks couldn't find it