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> If EV's do take off, it's likely to be the established car manufacturers who are good at making cars at scale who eventually capitalize on the opportunity. T
by travisoneill1 8y ago
> If EV's do take off, it's likely to be the established car manufacturers who are good at making cars at scale who eventually capitalize on the opportunity.
This is what I used to think, but every year the "Tesla killers" fail to kill, or even wound. I never even hear about the other EV's by themselves, only as the competition to Tesla. Anybody who watches the news would have known that the Model 3 was a colossal failure. But it wasn't. It was just 6 months late, which is not bad given the scale of the project. The narrative is just not reality here. Tesla has a head start on the industry. That doesn't guarantee anything, but I think that it's a bigger advantage to Tesla than it would be to any other car company because one of Elon Musk's strengths (Spacex too) is iteration speed.
Last I heard they got the price down to $45K, so they are in striking distance of the $35K target and won't stop there. EV's are mechanically simpler than gas powered cars. Once the technology and economies of scale are there, they will be cheaper. And I don't see any other company in a better position to get there first.
Edit:
Predicting that the established players being the ones to take the lead in a new technology sounds like common sense, but it isn't:
> It's likely to be the established electronics companies who are good at making electronics that take the lead in semi-conductor manufacturing.
> It's likely to be the established mail order companies who are good at delivery logistics that take the lead in online retail.
> It's likely to be the established taxi companies who are good at running taxi fleets (and have a legal monopoly) that take the lead in ride sharing apps.
If the pattern holds (which is not by any means guaranteed), Tesla has more to fear from a yet to be founded startup than it does from the legacy car manufacturers.
- lisper 8y ago> every year the "Tesla killers" fail to kill, or even wound That's true, but I think it's because of bad marketing rather than bad technology. The Chevy Bolt has the specs to beat the Model 3, but it is being positioned as a low-end car, a competitor to the Honda Civic rather than the Model 3. Power seats, for example, are not even offered as an option. That is not a car a rich person is going to buy to impress their friends. But GM could easily turn it into such a car. They obviously know how to make power seats. All the heavy lifting has been done. I have no idea why they aren't doing it, but GM has a long history of shooting itself in the foot when it comes to electric vehicles.
- tuxxy 8y agoGM is stopping Bolt production this year. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1120090_gm-to-kill-chevy-volt-production-in-2019 https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1120090_gm-to-kill-chev...
- vertex-four 8y agoThe Bolt isn’t the Volt.
- dingaling 8y agoBut it does illustrate wooden-headed marketing. Two such similar names and no implicit means of distinguishing one from the other, except perhaps "the one that sounds like it should be the pure EV isn't". No wonder people are confused and think GM is discontinuing the EV. I can't imagine Apple releasing the yPhone alongside the iPhone.
- harry8 8y agoHaha. Great line. Forevermore I shall refer to it as the yPhone. Cheers!
- y4mi 8y agoindeed, it even captures my personal thoughts when i see them in the wild: the WHY phone > "why would you spent so much money for a device you'll throw away in less then 24 month anyway?"
- thisacctforreal 8y agoOff-topic but someone else will likely get that device, the iPhone 5s from October 2013 has the latest iOS.
- lisper 8y agoThat's the Volt, not the Bolt. Completely different car. The Volt is a plug-in hybrid. The Bolt is all-electric.
- computerex 8y ago> This is what I used to think, but every year the "Tesla killers" fail to kill, or even wound. The "Tesla killers" have been sleeping, but they are about to wake up. No doubt Tesla jump started the market, but the other manufacturers have decades of experience. On top of that, no other car maker has the problems that Tesla does due to its CEO and his inability to stop tweeting. Whilst Tesla had a start start, it fell behind in many other areas like production, delivery and customer service. Other car companies have been doing this successfully for decades. There are hundreds of horror stories on the Tesla forums and on reddit of people having nightmarish customer service experiences with Tesla, and delivery problems. Elon Musk himself has enlisted volunteers to help deliver the cars. Do you think an established car manufacturer like Toyota or Ford will have any problem in getting their vehicles anywhere on the face of the Earth? When the giants have fully woken up, I suspect they'll utterly trample on Tesla.
- A2017U1 8y agoFunny it took them so long to do so given the huge bankrolls behind these companies and that none of the tech is new whatsoever. Good on them for changing their ingrained oil economy mindsets though. I'm sure it was entirely a moral choice by the hundreds of big auto execs worldwide.
- anth_anm 8y agoCompanies aren't moral. They do what makes them money, mostly in the short term.
- AtlasBarfed 8y ago- with what supply of batteries? They'll always be behind Tesla without the gigafactory - how will they sell them? Dealerships are 100% hostile to EVs, they won't bring in the maintenance business - Oh, you think the giants are good at customer service? The only difference in complaints in your example is that dealer networks distribute the dissatisfaction, but Tesla forums get all of them
- anth_anm 8y ago
- mandeepj 8y agoMusk has already promised a $25k Model 3 in 3 years. https://electrek.co/2018/08/17/tesla-cheaper-25000-electric-car-elon-musk/ https://electrek.co/2018/08/17/tesla-cheaper-25000-electric-...
- yread 8y agoOooh Musk promised something. That will surely happen, then.
- TeMPOraL 8y agoIt tends to, yes, once you account for Musk Time (which is something around 1.8x normal time, AFAIR).
- solarkraft 8y agoYep. Look at his announcements from a few years ago. "How is he going to build that many charging stations?". I find it pretty impressive how much of that happened exactly the way it was announced. Besides: The Germans are struggling just as much delivering their highly announced flagship EVs.
- yread 8y agoYep. Look at his announcement from a few months ago. "I will pre-approve all posts on Twitter".
- xiphias2 8y agoThings work out well if you use Mars years (1.9x)
- gamblor956 8y agoMusk also promised to have all of his tweets reviewed prior to posting, and we all know how well he kept that promise...
- anth_anm 8y ago
- anth_anm 8y agoDo you pay attention to other cars besides tesla? What Tesla killers have failed? > Last I heard they got the price down to $45K, so they are in striking distance of the $35K target and won't stop there Are they? That's a 20% price drop still to go.
- travisoneill1 8y agoI don't pay attention to any cars at all (other than my ancient Ford Ranger), but I still hear about Tesla. Advantage Tesla. All of them. Tesla is still eating everybody's lunch in the EV space, right? Tesla is the first company to mass manufacture EV's. At this stage of tech / economy of scale a 20% price drop is trivial.
- anth_anm 8y agoI'd put the Jaguar I-Pace as more of a Tesla killer than pretty much anything else that has come out. Even then, you don't see a Jaguar that often. If BMW comes out with a luxury sedan electric car that would be a tesla killer.
- travisoneill1 8y agoI guess we'll see. Model 3 seems to be moving towards the Toyota Camry market and away from the BMW market, though. I think there is room for both, and hopefully many more too. EV's are at the early stage where new entrants will be cannibalizing gas car sales more than each others.
- Sohcahtoa82 8y ago> If BMW comes out with a luxury sedan electric car that would be a tesla killer. Instead they produced the i3 which is ugly as sin, has only 180 mile range even WITH the gas-powered range extender, and underwhelming performance, and the i8 which is an overpriced plug-in hybrid with only 15 miles of electric range.
- rasz 8y ago>What Tesla killers have failed? Fisker, Aptera, Lucid, Faraday Future Edit: Forgot supposed Apple car :)