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I dunno about a bubble, implying it will pop in some catastrophic way. But will market forces correct the above average salary? I think so. More young student
by sharkweek 8y ago
I dunno about a bubble, implying it will pop in some catastrophic way.
But will market forces correct the above average salary? I think so.
More young students than ever are learning to code, which is naturally going to increase the labor pool. The supply of software engineers is going to go up in the next 10-20 years (as will the demand, though! But I still think supply will outpace). This seems like it would mostly affect new hires, as some 15 year veteran is going to have valuable experience that (most) companies will always be willing to pay for.
It feels like finance to me. People who got there early made a killing. Then salaries, while still pretty high, fell considerably as everyone rushed there to get rich.
As a counterpoint to the author's comment on doctors (maybe not lawyers, still plenty of law students in the pipeline). It does appear that the number of people going after medical degrees is decreasing, so I would predict their salaries to jump considerably in the next 20 years.
And last, and a totally aside point, I have exactly one friend who skipped college and over the last 12 years worked his way up the electricians union and now runs his own small business doing residential electrical work. He's making more than most of our social circle. He doesn't know many people his age doing this type of work either, so as the old guard retires, he's going to charge whatever he wants.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 8y ago> More young students than ever are learning to code More young students than ever are being taught the utmost basics. But is it true that more people than ever are pursuing it in the sense of seeking professional mastery over the craft? A proxy for this might be population-relative CS program enrollment and graduation rates. It would also be interesting to know how this is scaling compared to the overall volume of programming labor demanded, which is surely growing as well.
- sharkweek 8y agoAnecdotal, but the CS program overtook the business school at the University of Washington a few years back, my alma matter. I remember when I was there, the CS classes were for NERDS and now here we are, everyone wants in.
- seanmcdirmid 8y agoUW CSE has always been supply constrained, not demand constrained. Even back more than 20 years ago when I entered the program.
- titanomachy 8y agoUW is #6 nationally for software engineering and #60 overall... rankings are imprecise, but that might have something to do with it. Top students from all over the country compete for a small number of spots at top 10 schools.
- ido 8y agoI remember when I was there, the CS classes were for NERDS and now here we are, everyone wants in. When was that? I went to school in 2002 and CS at the time was already well past the “just for nerds” phase - I would guess that happened some time in the late 90s.
- pcstl 8y agoAs far as I can tell, CS enrollment is at an all-time high.
- jsjohnst 8y agoWhen you start from a very small base, it’s easier to continue to grow and reach “all-time highs”.
- rch 8y agoLawyers have been around for a while, there doesn't seem to be a shortage of them, and the average salary is still relatively high. However the distribution of starting salaries has trended towards being bimodal (https://www.nalp.org/salarydistrib https://www.nalp.org/salarydistrib). I could imagine the same thing happening for programmers over time, if it hasn't already.
- peteradio 8y agoI think barrier to entry for lawyers is way higher than for programming.
- jenscow 8y agoCan you imagine hiring a self-taught lawyer?
- AlexCoventry 8y agoI'd hire Abe Lincoln in a heartbeat.
- rch 8y agoI believe some states will let you simply take the bar exam and start practicing. Of course, one would probably get started by clerking or working into a paralegal position, both of which would require independent study and coursework. Sometimes people just need a cheap lawyer to take a look at a simple will or divorce papers, etc.
- jimmy1 8y agoThere is still a drastic shortage in good engineers.
- sct202 8y agoTotal med school enrollment is constrained by the number of residencies and supposedly the AMA. Meanwhile, the numbers of grads for other health professionals (Nurse Practitioners and Physician Assistants) that can fill some of the same roles as doctors has skyrocketed.
- lordnacho 8y ago> It feels like finance to me. Former quant dev, ie straddling the industries. The amount of people who study CS or can learn on their own is surprisingly limited. You won't get a job just by knowing how to write some if statements. By contrast, there are load of history majors in finance. There's plenty of ways to act like you understand it. Plenty of bullshitters. Also the role of luck makes some of them seem smarter than they actually are. Engineers who can't code will be uncovered sooner or later. It's hard to know beforehand at an interview, but it's a lot easier to discover with that person present for a few weeks.
- alexgmcm 8y agoAn acquaintance at University went on to work in the City - I was amazed as he had studied History rather than Physics or Maths or something. It turns out the firm he went to work at was run by a family friend. At least Tech has always seemed fairer to me, with less of the 'old boys network' than other fields like Finance and Law.