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I thought all diseases spread exponentially, with the rate being determined by how contagious on one side and how deadly on the other?
by dhh2106 8y ago
I thought all diseases spread exponentially, with the rate being determined by how contagious on one side and how deadly on the other?
- lb1lf 8y ago...plus the -hm- incubation period? That is - for how long you can transmit the disease without showing symptoms. The nightmare, of course, being a highly contagious, very deadly disease which let its victims infect others for weeks or months before falling ill themselves. I recall having read somewhere that a 'good' thing about ebola is that it mostly gets its victims before they've had a chance to travel very far, thus limiting its spread.
- api 8y agoYes, what you describe is the classic doomsday disease.
- alien_ 8y agoSounds much like rabies. The other critical feature is how easy it is passed on to a new victim, the worst scenario is being airborne.
- toufiqbarhamov 8y agoThe nightmare, of course, being a highly contagious, very deadly disease which let its victims infect others for weeks or months before falling ill themselves. That’s a very good description of Variola Major, and one reason (along with lethality and disfiguring effects) that it was so terrifying.
- ams6110 8y agoHIV/AIDS also.
- thaumasiotes 8y agoHIV isn't very contagious. That is why dying of AIDS was a strong indicator that you were gay. If it had been able to spread easily, everyone would have had it rather than just a tiny subpopulation.
- marcosdumay 8y agoThe simplified model is a sigmoid function, if it looks like exponential growth, exponentially dampened, or linear depends on where you are on the curve.