8 ms·

Technology’s dark forest

92 points by kaboro 8y ago

cooperadymas 8y ago
I agree that we are more pessimistic about technology, but that's a reductionist view of the Dark Forest theory. And it doesn't even hold up with their example. Millions of people did the 10 year challenge, but a Wired article suggested it's a ruse, therefore we don't trust new technology, except when millions of people did (never mind that this isn't even an example of "technology").
CapmCrackaWaka 8y ago
I find the authors assertion lacking. The only reason the Facebook 10 year meme was immediately distrusted is because Facebook's image has already been shot. Think about how many other developing technologies people just can't wait for, like self driving cars and renewable energy. It's not that people distrust technology, but like anything else it depends on who's wielding it and what they could do with it.
simion314 8y ago
Technology is not the problem, people are the problem, even in the mentioned books people start the big event, people fail many time on solving it(by arrogance, naivety ...) Sure we should not be paranoid but why should be naive, why risk more then you have to. We are resources for capitalist entities to exploit us.
mrosett 8y ago
The analogy in the title is very strained to start with, and by the time he throws in a Zork reference the metaphor totally collapses. Setting aside the rhetorical style, I think the main argument is pretty weak. People claiming Facebook has hidden motives aren't skeptical of technology; they're skeptical of Facebook. People raise issues about AI reinforcing bias, but in the cases I've seen those are mostly people who work in tech. Basically, I don't think the author establishes that people actually fear technology, and he doesn't really consider when technological skepticism is appropriate.
zwkrt 8y ago
Tech crunch is up its own behind on this one. The first potential reason is "resentment" people have toward the rich and glamorous San Jose lifestyle or because technology is "like magic" to the simple lay-folk. People are distrustful of things that have a track record of losing their trust, and tech is very high on this list. The other day I was returning some umbrellas to a Target. I had bought them online and picked them up at a different store. When trying to return them the nice old woman at the customer service counter had issues receiving the inventory because Target's system was not accepting the return of inventory whith such circuitous provenance. We were both intelligent humans, I had a valid receipt, and in another era she could have just taken the umbrellas and the issue would have been resolved. But today we have software which contains all the rules, and often these rules extend out into the world and begin to govern our lives. My example is silly, but think about how often tech restricts you versus how often is frees you. People reading this on HN might feel the answer is about even, but most people not in tech would probably have a very different answer.
- amelius 8y ago
  > think about how often tech restricts you versus how often is frees you. Type systems restrict me every time :)
- fnord123 8y ago
  >I had a valid receipt, and in another era she could have just taken the umbrellas and the issue would have been resolved. I think you're looking back with rose tinted glasses. Making returns in previous eras was very difficult. It was very much caveat emptor or make an enormous fuss.
  - jasode 8y ago
    >I think you're looking back with rose tinted glasses. Making returns in previous eras was very difficult. I agree. I remember 20 years ago when returns were much more of a hassle. For example, at Home Depot in the 1990s, to return something, you had to fill out a written form with a pen. The cumbersome pen & paper dance was repeated by the cashier as she had to analyze the receipt and manually circle which items were being returned. Today, their POS system just scans the UPC bar codes and immediately puts the refund amount back on the credit card. Literally 30 seconds instead of 5 minutes. Also, if I lost my receipt, the cashier justs ask for the card number I used. They can then find the transaction in their database and issue a refund back to the card. Container Store can also do this so I assume many retailers can do it. This convenience is all made possible by modern POS systems. Previously, the stores had a strict "no return without a receipt" policy. Overall, returns are easier today, not harder.
GavinMcG 8y ago
The author stated the meaning of "dark forest": > civilizations fear one another so much that they don’t dare to reveal themselves lest they immediately be considered a potential threat and destroyed and then completely misuses the term, instead talking about how consumers of technology are suspicious of creators of technology.
- evrydayhustling 8y ago
  Not to mention the metaphor-breaking fact that this suspicion in no way keeps folks from adopting tech... It just generates this vestigial reactionary news cycle while they do.
- forkLding 8y ago
  This is probably a better explanation by the guys at Bigthink: https://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-dark-forest-theory-a-terrifying-explanation-of-why-we-havent-heard-from-aliens-yet https://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-dark-forest-theory...
  - southerndrift 8y ago
    >The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost, gently pushing aside branches that block the path and trying to tread without sound. Even breathing is done with care. The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds another life—another hunter, angel, or a demon, a delicate infant to tottering old man, a fairy or demigod—there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. Very interesting. What this theory doesn't take into account are the non-hunters. A single farmer is at risk in a world full of hunters - see Robinson Crusoe. However, a village full of farmers who can store heavy weapons in their houses has almost nothing to fear from a small group of hunters. If each but one civilization dies in a hunter universe, making noises is worth the risk to meet others who are willing to cooperate.
    - forkLding 8y ago
      Yea it's basically applied game theory because you are never sure if another player wants to cooperate and if they truly mean to cooperate or are just waiting to backstab you once your guard is lowered so you end up competing against others for your own interests even though cooperation is the best outcome.
fuckthecops 8y ago
Article is complete trash like most things written by 'technologists' who don't build things themselves. Technology is only a dark forest to the laggards of the adoption bell-curve. Their only experience with new technology is makes them and their old practices redundant. Today I played with a testnet Lightning Network node and sent BTC payments in real-time with no middle-men on a p2p network. Tomorrow I will go to work and play with a microcomputer with an embedded ASIC chip designed specifically to run complex neural nets on embedded devices. I work remotely from Japan for a company in a completely different timezone. Technology is evolution and not all species are meant to be there in the next generation.
ScottAS 8y ago
“Remember when we looked forward to every advance?” No. Humans have always been afraid of change and skeptical of technology. Books and the printing press were considered destructive inventions that would prevent people from thinking for themselves. There were also extremely negative perceptions of television and the internet.
- agumonkey 8y ago
  I think that's unfair regarding the last decades. Post war people were pretty enthusiastic about tech. There are always people resisting. As a kid I wasn't obviously. But even adults were running after kitchen appliances, electronics and computers. It was a given.
crsmithdev 8y ago
So, the author read a book and then awkwardly tried to graft its theme onto the narrative his employer is pushing. Went about as well as you'd expect.
- Pica_soO 8y ago
  At least he tryied, instead of just blowing on the hype-trumpet - or resting intellectual easy by snipering with snarky comments.
draw_down 8y ago
There were always people taking the other side and warning us of the society we were building. If people weren’t listening or actively disregarded them because pessimism is obviously always wrong, well... I guess that’s another reason why we’re here, isn’t it.
skybrian 8y ago
I think what's happened is that one-bit reasoning (everything is either wonderful or terrible) has become too common? Maybe because most comments are short, and some witty, shallow takes are viral?
peterwwillis 8y ago
Humorous to think that in the future they'll know what forests were. Or maybe it'll remain a vestigial word for "field of CO2 scrubbers"
- pjscott 8y ago
  The amount of forested land in the US has been pretty stable for the past century or so. (Not sure about other countries.) https://www.fia.fs.fed.us/library/brochures/docs/2000/ForestFactsMetric.pdf https://www.fia.fs.fed.us/library/brochures/docs/2000/Forest...
freethemullet 8y ago
I suppose dark forest is a reference to a "forest dark" from Dante's Inferno?
- mac01021 8y ago
  The first two paragraphs say what science fiction novel it's a reference to.
- pnongrata 8y ago
  As someone else already pointed out: https://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-dark-forest-theory-a-terrifying-explanation-of-why-we-havent-heard-from-aliens-yet https://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-dark-forest-theory...
woah 8y ago
I can answer all of the article's questions with one word: Clickbait.
davidw 8y ago
I'm tired of pessimism. I want more optimistic things to read and watch.
scarejunba 8y ago
Okay, so let's be clear. People love technology. They don't "distrust it", "hate it", or any such nonsense. Everyone loves this shit. It's gold. There's just a vocal minority.
nostrademons 8y ago
"The Internet would erase national boundaries, replace gatekeepers with a universal opportunity for free expression, and bring us all closer together." Sounds like it succeeded in that, we just don't like the results.
- beaconstudios 8y ago
  cue today, with mass censorship on the rise.

92 points by kaboro 8y ago

I agree that we are more pessimistic about technology, but that's a reductionist view of the Dark Forest theory. And it doesn't even hold up with their example. Millions of people did the 10 year challenge, but a Wired article suggested it's a ruse, therefore we don't trust new technology, except when millions of people did (never mind that this isn't even an example of "technology").

CapmCrackaWaka 8y ago

I find the authors assertion lacking. The only reason the Facebook 10 year meme was immediately distrusted is because Facebook's image has already been shot. Think about how many other developing technologies people just can't wait for, like self driving cars and renewable energy. It's not that people distrust technology, but like anything else it depends on who's wielding it and what they could do with it.

simion314 8y ago

Technology is not the problem, people are the problem, even in the mentioned books people start the big event, people fail many time on solving it(by arrogance, naivety ...) Sure we should not be paranoid but why should be naive, why risk more then you have to. We are resources for capitalist entities to exploit us.

mrosett 8y ago

The analogy in the title is very strained to start with, and by the time he throws in a Zork reference the metaphor totally collapses. Setting aside the rhetorical style, I think the main argument is pretty weak. People claiming Facebook has hidden motives aren't skeptical of technology; they're skeptical of Facebook. People raise issues about AI reinforcing bias, but in the cases I've seen those are mostly people who work in tech. Basically, I don't think the author establishes that people actually fear technology, and he doesn't really consider when technological skepticism is appropriate.

zwkrt 8y ago

Tech crunch is up its own behind on this one. The first potential reason is "resentment" people have toward the rich and glamorous San Jose lifestyle or because technology is "like magic" to the simple lay-folk. People are distrustful of things that have a track record of losing their trust, and tech is very high on this list. The other day I was returning some umbrellas to a Target. I had bought them online and picked them up at a different store. When trying to return them the nice old woman at the customer service counter had issues receiving the inventory because Target's system was not accepting the return of inventory whith such circuitous provenance. We were both intelligent humans, I had a valid receipt, and in another era she could have just taken the umbrellas and the issue would have been resolved. But today we have software which contains all the rules, and often these rules extend out into the world and begin to govern our lives. My example is silly, but think about how often tech restricts you versus how often is frees you. People reading this on HN might feel the answer is about even, but most people not in tech would probably have a very different answer.

amelius 8y ago
> think about how often tech restricts you versus how often is frees you. Type systems restrict me every time :)
fnord123 8y ago
>I had a valid receipt, and in another era she could have just taken the umbrellas and the issue would have been resolved. I think you're looking back with rose tinted glasses. Making returns in previous eras was very difficult. It was very much caveat emptor or make an enormous fuss.
- jasode 8y ago
  >I think you're looking back with rose tinted glasses. Making returns in previous eras was very difficult. I agree. I remember 20 years ago when returns were much more of a hassle. For example, at Home Depot in the 1990s, to return something, you had to fill out a written form with a pen. The cumbersome pen & paper dance was repeated by the cashier as she had to analyze the receipt and manually circle which items were being returned. Today, their POS system just scans the UPC bar codes and immediately puts the refund amount back on the credit card. Literally 30 seconds instead of 5 minutes. Also, if I lost my receipt, the cashier justs ask for the card number I used. They can then find the transaction in their database and issue a refund back to the card. Container Store can also do this so I assume many retailers can do it. This convenience is all made possible by modern POS systems. Previously, the stores had a strict "no return without a receipt" policy. Overall, returns are easier today, not harder.

GavinMcG 8y ago

The author stated the meaning of "dark forest": > civilizations fear one another so much that they don’t dare to reveal themselves lest they immediately be considered a potential threat and destroyed and then completely misuses the term, instead talking about how consumers of technology are suspicious of creators of technology.

evrydayhustling 8y ago
Not to mention the metaphor-breaking fact that this suspicion in no way keeps folks from adopting tech... It just generates this vestigial reactionary news cycle while they do.
forkLding 8y ago
This is probably a better explanation by the guys at Bigthink: https://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-dark-forest-theory-a-terrifying-explanation-of-why-we-havent-heard-from-aliens-yet https://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-dark-forest-theory...
- southerndrift 8y ago
  >The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost, gently pushing aside branches that block the path and trying to tread without sound. Even breathing is done with care. The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds another life—another hunter, angel, or a demon, a delicate infant to tottering old man, a fairy or demigod—there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. Very interesting. What this theory doesn't take into account are the non-hunters. A single farmer is at risk in a world full of hunters - see Robinson Crusoe. However, a village full of farmers who can store heavy weapons in their houses has almost nothing to fear from a small group of hunters. If each but one civilization dies in a hunter universe, making noises is worth the risk to meet others who are willing to cooperate.
  - forkLding 8y ago
    Yea it's basically applied game theory because you are never sure if another player wants to cooperate and if they truly mean to cooperate or are just waiting to backstab you once your guard is lowered so you end up competing against others for your own interests even though cooperation is the best outcome.

fuckthecops 8y ago

Article is complete trash like most things written by 'technologists' who don't build things themselves. Technology is only a dark forest to the laggards of the adoption bell-curve. Their only experience with new technology is makes them and their old practices redundant. Today I played with a testnet Lightning Network node and sent BTC payments in real-time with no middle-men on a p2p network. Tomorrow I will go to work and play with a microcomputer with an embedded ASIC chip designed specifically to run complex neural nets on embedded devices. I work remotely from Japan for a company in a completely different timezone. Technology is evolution and not all species are meant to be there in the next generation.

ScottAS 8y ago

“Remember when we looked forward to every advance?” No. Humans have always been afraid of change and skeptical of technology. Books and the printing press were considered destructive inventions that would prevent people from thinking for themselves. There were also extremely negative perceptions of television and the internet.

agumonkey 8y ago
I think that's unfair regarding the last decades. Post war people were pretty enthusiastic about tech. There are always people resisting. As a kid I wasn't obviously. But even adults were running after kitchen appliances, electronics and computers. It was a given.

crsmithdev 8y ago

So, the author read a book and then awkwardly tried to graft its theme onto the narrative his employer is pushing. Went about as well as you'd expect.

Pica_soO 8y ago
At least he tryied, instead of just blowing on the hype-trumpet - or resting intellectual easy by snipering with snarky comments.

draw_down 8y ago

There were always people taking the other side and warning us of the society we were building. If people weren’t listening or actively disregarded them because pessimism is obviously always wrong, well... I guess that’s another reason why we’re here, isn’t it.

skybrian 8y ago

I think what's happened is that one-bit reasoning (everything is either wonderful or terrible) has become too common? Maybe because most comments are short, and some witty, shallow takes are viral?

peterwwillis 8y ago

Humorous to think that in the future they'll know what forests were. Or maybe it'll remain a vestigial word for "field of CO2 scrubbers"

pjscott 8y ago
The amount of forested land in the US has been pretty stable for the past century or so. (Not sure about other countries.) https://www.fia.fs.fed.us/library/brochures/docs/2000/ForestFactsMetric.pdf https://www.fia.fs.fed.us/library/brochures/docs/2000/Forest...

freethemullet 8y ago

I suppose dark forest is a reference to a "forest dark" from Dante's Inferno?

mac01021 8y ago
The first two paragraphs say what science fiction novel it's a reference to.
pnongrata 8y ago
As someone else already pointed out: https://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-dark-forest-theory-a-terrifying-explanation-of-why-we-havent-heard-from-aliens-yet https://bigthink.com/scotty-hendricks/the-dark-forest-theory...

woah 8y ago

I can answer all of the article's questions with one word: Clickbait.

davidw 8y ago

I'm tired of pessimism. I want more optimistic things to read and watch.

scarejunba 8y ago

Okay, so let's be clear. People love technology. They don't "distrust it", "hate it", or any such nonsense. Everyone loves this shit. It's gold. There's just a vocal minority.

nostrademons 8y ago

"The Internet would erase national boundaries, replace gatekeepers with a universal opportunity for free expression, and bring us all closer together." Sounds like it succeeded in that, we just don't like the results.

beaconstudios 8y ago
cue today, with mass censorship on the rise.