4 ms·

What I read is that most outbreaks spread a kind of linear while Ebola spreads exponetial. That's what is scary about Ebola. And ofcourse the fact there is sti

by pasta 8y ago

What I read is that most outbreaks spread a kind of linear while Ebola spreads exponetial. That's what is scary about Ebola. And ofcourse the fact there is still no cure.

Retric 8y ago
> no cure Sort of, their are treatments that increase survival rates significantly. Supportive hospital care might not seem as useful as a wonder pill, but an IV drip can make a huge difference.
- pariahHN 8y ago
  There are vaccines being deployed but stocks are extremely limited. If I remember correctly, they are focusing on inoculating the social circles of known infected. But you can only inoculate someone's social circle if you know they have it... It also doesn't help that medical teams sometimes get attacked by locals.
  - egeozcan 8y ago
    EDIT: Ignore my question, apparently rumors and skepticism about modern medicine is why they attack medical teams: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-ebola-congo-attack/attack-on-congolese-red-cross-ebola-ambulance-wounds-three-volunteers-idUSKCN1MD2DC https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-ebola-congo-attack... > It also doesn't help that medical teams sometimes get attacked by locals Who is attacking them for what reason? Anti-vacciners or something?
    - selectodude 8y ago
      Rural Africa has had bad luck when it comes to white people coming in and telling them what to do.
      - slowmovintarget 8y ago
        Another problem with the last outbreak is that one of the things Westerners were telling them to do was to stop eating portions of their dead. This is a tradition there, and local shamans started saying they were getting sick because they weren't honoring the tradition. The last outbreak started from people eating infected bats. I'll have to read up on this one.
        wbl 8y ago
        You are thinking of kuru.
        nkurz 8y ago
        That too, but bats are also frequently associated with ebola: https://www.google.com/search?q=ebola+bats https://www.google.com/search?q=ebola+bats
      - jtbayly 8y ago
        Eating portions of their dead? I never heard that. I just heard that they weren’t able to do traditional funerals. Presumably that could be part of the traditional funeral, but I’ve got close friends and family I would have expected to hear that from. Do you have a reference?
        davidmr 8y ago
        I just finished Virus Hunters of the CDC, a 1996 book written by a couple of CDC epidemiologists, one of which had led a couple of Ebola responses in (what was then) Zaire and CAR. (He was even on the team that named the disease for a river near the town the outbreak was in.) He certainly didn’t mention cannibalism. They were most concerned about the ritual washing before burial. Apparently the bodies are cleansed, bowels washed, etc. Given how Ebola spreads, this was virtually a guarantee that anyone handling the dead would contract the disease. Their biggest successes were in teaching families how to use gloves, masks, and bleach. Any danger the CDC teams were in seemed to be mostly limited to political instability.
    - tway111 8y ago
      Well, some of those people are basically cavemen by our standards.
- api 8y ago
  Luckily it looks like having it once confers immunity. https://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/11/10/ask-well-immune-to-ebola/ https://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/11/10/ask-well-immune-to... Also bodes well for our ability to make a vaccine.
dhh2106 8y ago
I thought all diseases spread exponentially, with the rate being determined by how contagious on one side and how deadly on the other?
- lb1lf 8y ago
  ...plus the -hm- incubation period? That is - for how long you can transmit the disease without showing symptoms. The nightmare, of course, being a highly contagious, very deadly disease which let its victims infect others for weeks or months before falling ill themselves. I recall having read somewhere that a 'good' thing about ebola is that it mostly gets its victims before they've had a chance to travel very far, thus limiting its spread.
  - api 8y ago
    Yes, what you describe is the classic doomsday disease.
    - alien_ 8y ago
      Sounds much like rabies. The other critical feature is how easy it is passed on to a new victim, the worst scenario is being airborne.
  - toufiqbarhamov 8y ago
    The nightmare, of course, being a highly contagious, very deadly disease which let its victims infect others for weeks or months before falling ill themselves. That’s a very good description of Variola Major, and one reason (along with lethality and disfiguring effects) that it was so terrifying.
    - ams6110 8y ago
      HIV/AIDS also.
      - thaumasiotes 8y ago

by pasta 8y ago

What I read is that most outbreaks spread a kind of linear while Ebola spreads exponetial. That's what is scary about Ebola. And ofcourse the fact there is still no cure.

Retric 8y ago

> no cure Sort of, their are treatments that increase survival rates significantly. Supportive hospital care might not seem as useful as a wonder pill, but an IV drip can make a huge difference.

pariahHN 8y ago
There are vaccines being deployed but stocks are extremely limited. If I remember correctly, they are focusing on inoculating the social circles of known infected. But you can only inoculate someone's social circle if you know they have it... It also doesn't help that medical teams sometimes get attacked by locals.
- egeozcan 8y ago
  EDIT: Ignore my question, apparently rumors and skepticism about modern medicine is why they attack medical teams: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-ebola-congo-attack/attack-on-congolese-red-cross-ebola-ambulance-wounds-three-volunteers-idUSKCN1MD2DC https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-ebola-congo-attack... > It also doesn't help that medical teams sometimes get attacked by locals Who is attacking them for what reason? Anti-vacciners or something?
  - selectodude 8y ago
    Rural Africa has had bad luck when it comes to white people coming in and telling them what to do.
    - slowmovintarget 8y ago
      Another problem with the last outbreak is that one of the things Westerners were telling them to do was to stop eating portions of their dead. This is a tradition there, and local shamans started saying they were getting sick because they weren't honoring the tradition. The last outbreak started from people eating infected bats. I'll have to read up on this one.
      - wbl 8y ago
        You are thinking of kuru.
        nkurz 8y ago
        That too, but bats are also frequently associated with ebola: https://www.google.com/search?q=ebola+bats https://www.google.com/search?q=ebola+bats
    - jtbayly 8y ago
      Eating portions of their dead? I never heard that. I just heard that they weren’t able to do traditional funerals. Presumably that could be part of the traditional funeral, but I’ve got close friends and family I would have expected to hear that from. Do you have a reference?
      - davidmr 8y ago
        I just finished Virus Hunters of the CDC, a 1996 book written by a couple of CDC epidemiologists, one of which had led a couple of Ebola responses in (what was then) Zaire and CAR. (He was even on the team that named the disease for a river near the town the outbreak was in.) He certainly didn’t mention cannibalism. They were most concerned about the ritual washing before burial. Apparently the bodies are cleansed, bowels washed, etc. Given how Ebola spreads, this was virtually a guarantee that anyone handling the dead would contract the disease. Their biggest successes were in teaching families how to use gloves, masks, and bleach. Any danger the CDC teams were in seemed to be mostly limited to political instability.
  - tway111 8y ago
    Well, some of those people are basically cavemen by our standards.
api 8y ago
Luckily it looks like having it once confers immunity. https://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/11/10/ask-well-immune-to-ebola/ https://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/11/10/ask-well-immune-to... Also bodes well for our ability to make a vaccine.

dhh2106 8y ago

I thought all diseases spread exponentially, with the rate being determined by how contagious on one side and how deadly on the other?

lb1lf 8y ago
...plus the -hm- incubation period? That is - for how long you can transmit the disease without showing symptoms. The nightmare, of course, being a highly contagious, very deadly disease which let its victims infect others for weeks or months before falling ill themselves. I recall having read somewhere that a 'good' thing about ebola is that it mostly gets its victims before they've had a chance to travel very far, thus limiting its spread.
- api 8y ago
  Yes, what you describe is the classic doomsday disease.
  - alien_ 8y ago
    Sounds much like rabies. The other critical feature is how easy it is passed on to a new victim, the worst scenario is being airborne.
- toufiqbarhamov 8y ago
  The nightmare, of course, being a highly contagious, very deadly disease which let its victims infect others for weeks or months before falling ill themselves. That’s a very good description of Variola Major, and one reason (along with lethality and disfiguring effects) that it was so terrifying.
  - ams6110 8y ago
    HIV/AIDS also.
    - thaumasiotes 8y ago