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> A "no deal" outcome, which is clearly bad, is still the best thing brexiters can actually deliver. It could go much much worse than just "bad". The UK impor
by jpfr 8y ago
> A "no deal" outcome, which is clearly bad, is still the best thing brexiters can actually deliver.
It could go much much worse than just "bad".
The UK imports a lot of food from EU neighbors. In case of a hard Brexit, this will just ... stop. The question is whether all supermarkets can immediately redo their supply chains. That is not likely. Especially since the UK will loose all trade agreements with the non-EU countries as well. Because they had been made by the EU with the UK participating.
Our western societies are very efficient but also very fragile. If supermarkets can no longer fill up their shelves, people go hungry fast. If supermarkets can only fill 80% of shelves, people panic and start hoarding food. Those who are too late to the party go hungry. With enough people hungry for a few days, society collapses.
Like ... corpses in the streets.
We know what happened when the Soviet Union went down and shelves went empty. This scenario would end a lot worse for the UK. The Soviets had massive redundancies, inefficiencies and fallbacks that could be exploited. Such as people growing potatoes in their Dachas.
See the material by Dmitry Orlov on how the "soviet scenario" would play out in a western country:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2006-12-04/closing-collapse-gap-ussr-was-better-prepared-collapse-us/ https://www.resilience.org/stories/2006-12-04/closing-collap...
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/02/social-collapse-best-practices.html http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/02/social-collapse-best-p...
Update:
What do you think "chaos at the border" means?
Everybody will try to get as much stuff over the border as possible. Everybody will work together. The EU, the UK, the US, everybody. With the best intentions. But this could still go very very bad.
Every truck, train and ship has to get the papers checked where they could just drive through before. But there are not enough qualified officers to actually check all the papers.
So goods will come in at a trickle.
Even with the best intentions.
This the UK governments own statement. Chaos at the border for six months:
> Britain’s government has revised its worst-case Brexit scenario estimates for chaos at the country’s borders, which it now expects to last for six months rather than six weeks, the political editor of The Sun newspaper said.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-borders/uk-now-sees-six-months-of-border-chaos-in-no-deal-brexit-the-sun-idUSKBN1O617U https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-borders/uk-now...
- lurquer 8y agoCorpses in the street? The UK imports around 25% of food-related commodities from the EU. Even with no deal, these imports will continue (as the EU has to sell them to someone.) Even if the EU stopped, there would not be corpses in the street as there happens to be a very wealthy English-speaking country not too far away that happens to produce more food than any country on the planet and is more than willing to trade with the UK.
- jpfr 8y ago> The US is currently only the 10th largest exporter of food to the UK. “For the USA to replace the combined food imports from the other nine in the top 10 would require a vast food flotilla and logistics operation exceeding that of the 1940-45 Atlantic convoys.” https://www.theguardian.com/food/2018/sep/15/food-and-brexit-will-the-cupboard-be-bare-jay-rayner https://www.theguardian.com/food/2018/sep/15/food-and-brexit...
- tick_tock_tick 8y agoDamn that's crazy so it's completely viable? With the increasing in ships and logistical systems it would be even easier then it was back in the day.
- Dylan16807 8y agoIt's viable in the long term. It cannot be set up inside a week.
- dTal 8y agoI think you missed the point. The point is that 1) overnight disruption of existing supply chains is very likely, and 2) in today's last-minute food supply infrastructure, it only takes a few days for shelves to empty. Empty shelves = hungry people = riots. So it's not a question of whether the US will trade with the UK, in the long run. It's a question of whether, 2 days after a hard Brexit, everyone has been well-organized enough to keep food flowing across the border at the same rate as always, despite the massive customs upheaval.