4 ms·

Is the problem with driverless cars that humans are, on average, absolutely terrible drivers?

JasonFruit 8y ago
It's not a problem with humans on the average; that's an easy problem. It's humans in specific that are difficult.
dsr_ 8y ago
Partially. The three problems: 1. The cost of screwing up is very high. 2. There are important events in the real world environment that are not very recognizable or predictable. 3. Humans accept a level of danger from other human drivers that they absolutely will not accept from robocars.
gpm 8y ago
I doubt that it's human drivers that are the issue. Cars are nice big easy to identify predictable things, and even if you screw up and hit one the cost is relatively low. The challenging cases are probably things like children playing on the side of the road, pedestrians, bicyclists, construction workers, cops standing in the street, people working in manholes, and so on. Relatively small, easily obscured, unpredictable, hard for computers to figure out how they are moving, and very high cost to hit.
- seanmcdirmid 8y ago
  Why not just start with freeways/ring roads?
  - jzwinck 8y ago
    People don't want to be picked up and dropped off at freeway exit ramps or Cracker Barrels.
IshKebab 8y ago
No. The problem is that road systems (even really easy ones like in America) are designed for humans, and humans are requires some human abilities that AI isn't even close to, like anticipating what people are going to do. Also I think the actual hardware is not good enough yet. LIDAR is great but humans can see really far in really good detail and can work out what is happening even in really bad conditions (rain, looking into the sun, etc). Non-motorway driving is just too varied. I still think the first real application of autonomous vehicles will be driverless lorries that drive between depots that are connected by motorways. It's way way easier because the environment is so restricted, there's a clear commercial need, and people would be a lot more comfortable about the safety aspect - who hasn't seen a lorry drift into the hard shoulder? Plus lorries are super expensive so it wouldn't increase the cost too much, and they're huge so there is plenty of space for hardware.
- rlayton2 8y ago
  This is a series of good points. Near where I live (Australia), we had some roadworks on the freeway, causing the lanes to be temporarily moved. The "new" lines where yellow, instead of the normal white, and much harder to see. Further, this happened several times, so you just followed the "most yellow" line, and hoped that nobody rammed into the side of you. If, instead, we have a set of local sensors setup that identified the new "safe" path, an automated car could easily go through this new section. As marked, however, it would be very dangerous to rely on an automated driver.
klyrs 8y ago
No. It's that humans are remarkably adaptive and can convey intention through body language -- even through a "puppet body" like a motor vehicle. Humans can, by and large, adapt to "terrible" drivers -- swerving to avoid the aggro asshats, honking at phone addicts to signalboost green lights, changing lanes to avoid grandpa's leaden brake foot, etc. Speaking as somebody who owns a classic car, drives carefully to baby said classic and often rides shotgun... I gotta say: most drivers are pretty decent. The people I hear complain about how awful everybody else is... they're either old and drive dangerously slow, or they're super entitled and drive aggressively. Since we're on HN, I'm gonna guess you're of the latter camp. Do the world a favor: take Uber and don't write AI.
- ChrisSD 8y ago
  Wow that'sa lot of assumptions to make about me from single statement. While it is amusing, doesn't HN encourage people to be civil?
  - klyrs 8y ago
    You described the average driver as "absolutely terrible." Are you actually offended that I painted you with a similarly broad brush?
    - mmirate 8y ago
      (Note: I'm not the OP.) I don't get paid by-the-hour to drive; I get paid to arrive on-time. So commuting in my opinion (like IT in MBAs' opinion) is purely a (time-)cost center. And from that POV the average driver is indeed absolutely terrible. Ever since I started working in the software industry, I don't think I've ever taken the wheel of my car and driven it somewhere, without getting angry at another driver along the way. Granted, different drivers can be terrible in different ways. Some of them do stupid mutually-harmful BS like pulling out right front of me with minimal margin and no intent to travel at even half the speed-limit. Others think that because they have an 8-cylinder engine and a traditional automatic transmission, that they should rule the streets - which they can and do, but that doesn't make me any less angry at them when they e.g. pass me at a 20mph relative-speed on the same side into which I was signalling to change because I was behind a schoolbus.
ars 8y ago
> on average, absolutely terrible drivers? Quite the opposite, on average humans are 99.99999% reliable when driving cars. Math: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12012166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12012166 Computers on the other hand are nowhere near that reliable.
- ChrisSD 8y ago
  Ok but not causing an accident (yet) isn't my bar for good driving. And besides, road injuries are still one of the top ten causes of death

It's not a problem with humans on the average; that's an easy problem. It's humans in specific that are difficult.

dsr_ 8y ago

Partially. The three problems: 1. The cost of screwing up is very high. 2. There are important events in the real world environment that are not very recognizable or predictable. 3. Humans accept a level of danger from other human drivers that they absolutely will not accept from robocars.

gpm 8y ago

I doubt that it's human drivers that are the issue. Cars are nice big easy to identify predictable things, and even if you screw up and hit one the cost is relatively low. The challenging cases are probably things like children playing on the side of the road, pedestrians, bicyclists, construction workers, cops standing in the street, people working in manholes, and so on. Relatively small, easily obscured, unpredictable, hard for computers to figure out how they are moving, and very high cost to hit.

seanmcdirmid 8y ago
Why not just start with freeways/ring roads?
- jzwinck 8y ago
  People don't want to be picked up and dropped off at freeway exit ramps or Cracker Barrels.

IshKebab 8y ago

No. The problem is that road systems (even really easy ones like in America) are designed for humans, and humans are requires some human abilities that AI isn't even close to, like anticipating what people are going to do. Also I think the actual hardware is not good enough yet. LIDAR is great but humans can see really far in really good detail and can work out what is happening even in really bad conditions (rain, looking into the sun, etc). Non-motorway driving is just too varied. I still think the first real application of autonomous vehicles will be driverless lorries that drive between depots that are connected by motorways. It's way way easier because the environment is so restricted, there's a clear commercial need, and people would be a lot more comfortable about the safety aspect - who hasn't seen a lorry drift into the hard shoulder? Plus lorries are super expensive so it wouldn't increase the cost too much, and they're huge so there is plenty of space for hardware.

rlayton2 8y ago
This is a series of good points. Near where I live (Australia), we had some roadworks on the freeway, causing the lanes to be temporarily moved. The "new" lines where yellow, instead of the normal white, and much harder to see. Further, this happened several times, so you just followed the "most yellow" line, and hoped that nobody rammed into the side of you. If, instead, we have a set of local sensors setup that identified the new "safe" path, an automated car could easily go through this new section. As marked, however, it would be very dangerous to rely on an automated driver.

klyrs 8y ago

No. It's that humans are remarkably adaptive and can convey intention through body language -- even through a "puppet body" like a motor vehicle. Humans can, by and large, adapt to "terrible" drivers -- swerving to avoid the aggro asshats, honking at phone addicts to signalboost green lights, changing lanes to avoid grandpa's leaden brake foot, etc. Speaking as somebody who owns a classic car, drives carefully to baby said classic and often rides shotgun... I gotta say: most drivers are pretty decent. The people I hear complain about how awful everybody else is... they're either old and drive dangerously slow, or they're super entitled and drive aggressively. Since we're on HN, I'm gonna guess you're of the latter camp. Do the world a favor: take Uber and don't write AI.

ChrisSD 8y ago
Wow that'sa lot of assumptions to make about me from single statement. While it is amusing, doesn't HN encourage people to be civil?
- klyrs 8y ago
  You described the average driver as "absolutely terrible." Are you actually offended that I painted you with a similarly broad brush?
  - mmirate 8y ago
    (Note: I'm not the OP.) I don't get paid by-the-hour to drive; I get paid to arrive on-time. So commuting in my opinion (like IT in MBAs' opinion) is purely a (time-)cost center. And from that POV the average driver is indeed absolutely terrible. Ever since I started working in the software industry, I don't think I've ever taken the wheel of my car and driven it somewhere, without getting angry at another driver along the way. Granted, different drivers can be terrible in different ways. Some of them do stupid mutually-harmful BS like pulling out right front of me with minimal margin and no intent to travel at even half the speed-limit. Others think that because they have an 8-cylinder engine and a traditional automatic transmission, that they should rule the streets - which they can and do, but that doesn't make me any less angry at them when they e.g. pass me at a 20mph relative-speed on the same side into which I was signalling to change because I was behind a schoolbus.

ars 8y ago

> on average, absolutely terrible drivers? Quite the opposite, on average humans are 99.99999% reliable when driving cars. Math: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12012166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12012166 Computers on the other hand are nowhere near that reliable.

ChrisSD 8y ago
Ok but not causing an accident (yet) isn't my bar for good driving. And besides, road injuries are still one of the top ten causes of death