6 ms·
The $6T Barrier Holding Electric Cars Back
- foolzcrow 8y agoNobody wants one is what's holding them back.
- justtopost 8y agoFlagged comment is correct. Gas cars are still superior for actual normal use. The issue is, as long as electric are priced above or similar to conventional cars, is and will continue to be, superior demand. Electrics are for the well to do only still in most areas. I say that as someone who would love an ecar, but find them both unaffordable, and mildly unsuitable for the driving I do regularly. But this is not a shiny metro-dwelling sentiment, so I suspect this comment, dispite being useful and relevant, will end up the same. A plea: There are people outside cities. Lots of them. Stop pretending we don't exist, and calling us rednecks/flyover/etc. Its become a staple of HN and getting worse. It makes me sick to read the comments sometimes. We grow your food, build your infrastructure, but get no empathy when we have no internet access. Its bigotry plain and simple, and rampant here. Usually stated in cowardly downvotes rather than reasoned debate to perserve image. I fully think you should be required to respond, or upvote a response, before downvoting. It would surface the real bias entrenched here.
- maxerickson 8y agoThe comment is dead because all comments posted by the account are posted as dead. It isn't flagged at the moment. Try to leave the whinging about your comment getting flagged or whatever out.
- anoncoward111 8y agoI can't see the comment and I desire to. OP is not whining, imo, just using emotion to convey a point.
- dgacmu 8y agoGo into your profile and set showdead to true. You're not missing much. Troll account.
- jplayer01 8y agoAll it says is "Nobody wants one is what's holding them back." I fail to see how this adds to the discussion in a meaningful way. Just a quick look at EV sales is enough to prove the idea that "nobody wants them" wrong. People do want them. There are plenty of reasons why other people don't want them and why market penetration is lagging and these need to be addressed, but it's not a lost cause by any means.
- maxerickson 8y ago"But this is not a shiny metro-dwelling sentiment, so I suspect this comment, dispite being useful and relevant, will end up the same." That's whinging, plain as day.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago>The issue is, as long as electric are priced above or similar to conventional cars, is and will continue to be, superior demand. Tesla's sales prove you wrong: people are already replacing their current ICEs with higher-priced EV, although on a /km basis, the Model 3 is already cheaper than an equivalent ICE (e.g the BMW Series 3). We just need Tesla to ramp up its production and introduce economy models, and the other manufacturers to try to compete. I am not saying that you can buy a low-cost EV for your needs/budget, but that your first 3 assertions are plainly false.
- pjc50 8y ago> people are already replacing their current ICEs with higher-priced EV Some people are, but only the non-cost-sensitive or people with specific use patterns - e.g. Priuses became incredibly popular as taxis.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y agoNot "some people". Enough people for the Model 3 to be the #1 best selling cars in the US in $, and the #4 most popular car across all categories (from subcompact to luxury) and types (ICE, plugins & EV). BMW & Mercedes car sales are now plummeting in the US.
- ianai 8y agoFirst I’ve heard that. Link?
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y agoMercedes: http://www.autospies.com/images/users/Agent009/main/MB%20october%202018.JPG http://www.autospies.com/images/users/Agent009/main/MB%20oct... (these shows both cars and SUV) For the big pictures on the Telsa/BMW/Mercedes segment, check this out: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hYZ1J/8/ https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hYZ1J/8/ (it stops at August, but know that they sold 22.5K Model 3 in September) Edit: for BMW, I found this >Here's the number breakdown: BMW sold 14,450 passenger cars in the U.S. market in August. This number includes sales from compact crossovers like the X1 and X2 as well. That's a 13.5 percent decrease in car sales from August 2017. https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/06/tesla-model-3-outsells-entire-bmw-car-lineup/ https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/06/tesla-model-3-outsells-e... That is for August too, so this has probably worsen since then.
- pjc50 8y ago> There are people outside cities. Lots of them. Stop pretending we don't exist, and calling us rednecks/flyover/etc. Its become a staple of HN and getting worse. Spillover from the culture war, sadly. So long as you're prepared to make it a two-way street and understand urban problems and environments, things needn't be this way. It's probably related to how many far-right politicians seem to come from the more rural states.
- GnarfGnarf 8y agoI look forward to no longer having to deal with the absurd complexity of the internal combustion engine: pistons, cylinders, crankshafts, distributors, oil pumps, water pumps, radiators, valves, belts, mufflers... The fact that this finally works semi-reliably is a testament to the genius of the engineers and managers of the automobile industry. Remember that wherever there is a gasoline pump, there is electricity, and the possibility of a charging station. One day the internal combustion vehicle will be seen as quaint as a horse defecating in the street.
- chrisseaton 8y ago> I look forward to no longer having to deal with the absurd complexity of the internal combustion engine: pistons, cylinders, crankshafts, distributors, oil pumps, water pumps, radiators, valves, belts, mufflers... I'm looking forward to pervasive electric cars as well, but really how much of this 'absurd complexity' do you need to deal with in a conventional car? And how exactly do you have to 'deal with' it? You get a mechanic to look at for a couple of hours once a year and that's it. You could dramatically list all the complex components in an electric vehicle - down to the microscopic integrated circuits - as well and say that they all need to be 'dealt with' because it's serviced once a year.
- onetimemanytime 8y ago>>You get a mechanic to look at for a couple of hours once a year and that's it. The problem in taking it there as much as is paying for the privilege :) Does anyone know if electric cars have less problems that require expensive repairs?
- nordsieck 8y ago> Does anyone know if electric cars have less problems that require expensive repairs? My impression from watching a few Youtube videos of Tesla owners who are not in warranty [0] is that they aren't actually very cheap to run. In theory, they should be inexpensive - electricity < gas and there are physically fewer parts, but it sounds like there were substantial teething pains. We'll see if/when they got to Toyota levels of reliability. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq5c4jGR2gM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq5c4jGR2gM
- rmtech 8y agoIt would be nice to have a comparison cost for the cost of gasoline infrastructure globally. Also, $6Tr seems on the high side to me. That's the same as 150 million $40,000 electric cars. Is the infrastructure really that expensive?
- Brakenshire 8y agoI don’t really understand why figures like this matter, if people are willing to pay for the electricity at a profitable rate, then the grid infrastructure to meet that demand can be built. There must be very high global costs in maintaining the existing grid, but we don’t get breathless articles saying “global grid must find $x trillion or else blackouts will occur within 5 years”. If there was a sudden spike in demand there would be a sudden availability of private capital willing to meet that demand, the barrier should that occur would be equipment, materials and skill related, but I doubt it would be held back by access to capital. Also, it doesn’t make sense to talk about “affordable electric cars” as a monolith. Electric cars are already cheaper than the alternatives for some people when you calculate Total Cost of Ownership, it depends on your requirements and use case. That will become mainstream step by step in different sections of the market.
- herval 8y agoOccam’s razor: it’s not profitable enough to attract the capital it needs, and price is heavily regulated
- Brakenshire 8y agoWell, that is the question which matters, whether or not current prices reflect the costs. I don’t see that saying “Occam’s Razor” answers the question, it needs to be proven or disproven through evidence.
- neogodless 8y agoThe assumption you used helps to answer your question. "at a profitable rate" So this assumes that the chicken-and-egg electric car/infrastructure can evolve together profitably while reaching critical mass. (To be sure, I believe they can, but it will take either government or brave investors to get there.) So the question really is "can $6T be divided up into the cost of whoever is paying for it, i.e. electricity users to maintain profitability as it is built?" If you assume the answer is yes, there is no question! (As for the "maintaining the grid", yes, obviously we are already maintaining it profitably. No need to build critical mass/adoption or initial infrastructure investment, so no interesting stories to write!)
- arbuge 8y ago"Wouldn’t it be great if we could all drive without dirtying the air we breathe? Alas, not everyone can afford an electric car." These claims always bother me. Besides the obvious pollution from the generation of electricity required to run the car (in places where clean energy isn't available), there are also the issues of energy required to manufacture the car, energy required to replace battery packs after several years, energy required to recycle the car at end of life, etc. Driving without dirtying the air is really hard to achieve if you think about the whole chain of events that goes into that. Far better to live and work within easy travelling distance if you want to have less of a negative impact on the environment.
- rzwitserloot 8y agoThis issue is very complicated. Your average make-tiny-explosions-in-a-chamber based vehicle can give you about 250,000 to 1 million km (150k-625k miles). Then it's just done. The parts are worn down. It's given its all. Your average move-power-from-batteries-to-engines based vehcile can EASILY keep on going for 10 million km or more. Yes, even the battery pack can get there, though it would indeed be by far the first thing that will fail. It is far cheaper to replace that, than to replace an entire combustion engine. Given that, you could draw the conclusion that the energy required to make the chair, the radio, the dashboard, etc – can be divided by at least 10, probably more. But your average person does not ride more than ~250000 KM in a decade, and for sheer matters of safety engineering, style, conveniences like supporting modern electronics – most people consider a 10 year old car pretty old, and a 20 year old one ancient, and want to replace it simply because it is old. Which, for combustion cars, is not a big deal: It's pretty worn down by then. But for EVs? That's a real problem. A 20 year old EV with 250k on the odometer is a damn shame. Nobody wants it anymore but all the parts still work. Solve this problem and EVs are _INCREDIBLY_ better for the environment. I guess self-driving cars helps; you can share a car and just order it to drive to your front door. But to make that a success, you need to do something about the 9-to-5 culture; people need to go to work, say, anywhere between 7am to 1pm, work 6 to 8 hours, and return home, and any job that needs full staffing the entire time people are at the office needs 2 shifts. That's a huge social upheaval (but it also gets rid of traffic jams, creates jobs, and probably boosts the economy because it is easier to do stuff because things are still open). At which point we're in 'change the world, man!' hippie territory. But one can dream, I guess.
- joaorico 8y agoIt's always going to take a few years. The global fleet is about 2 billion passenger and commercial vehicles, and the global yearly production is about 100 million. So even if all new cars sold from now are electric, it will take 20 years. But who knows what kind of autonomous vehicles and other innovations we'll have in 20 years. Buckle up :)
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y agoA change like the transition to EV won't be linear. As more ICEs get replaced by EVs, people and businesses will realize that it doesn't make sens to sustain an aging ICE infrastructure for a shrinking fleet of old, toxic cars. Dense cities will gradually ban them, gas stations and car dealerships will close, banks will stop financing ICE leases (and more important, they will stop financing the entire fossil fuel industry), etc. As the resale value of ICEs will plummet and their cost of ownership/operation will increase, a vicious circle will accelerate to quickly make them a liability.
- ethagknight 8y agoThere is no $6T barrier, the infrastructure already exists. TLDR: This article focuses more on the cost of electric cars (which is valid but not really relevant) with a passing mention on infrastructure. Bloomberg provides no clear backup on the math (“according to Goldman”) but I’m guessing they are pricing a scenario where all electric cars are completely drained and charging to full all at once. Practical usage is more like a trickle charge every night. A step further, electric utilities are thrilled to get to supply this energy to you, and there will be a cat and mouse game as car charging software works to avoid peak electric surge pricing. Electric utility remains the winner, since they can heavily incentivize time-shifted charging (i.e. dont start charging until 1 am, get half price kws!), and they can run their traditional plants more efficiently or even issue firesale pricing notices for sudden oversupply from renewables. There is no barrier, there is modest opportunity, and the implication of the barrier is “i’m not buying a car because the national grad can’t support me!” In the same breath, the article discusses how electric autos are selling like hot cakes.
- neogodless 8y agoI have no comment on whether the grid can support the electricity demand. The charging network is the bigger picture item. Basically, locations where you can charge your car have to become as ubiquitous as gas stations, or, more likely, more ubiquitous because you want to rely on dormant vehicle periods to charge to avoid humans standing around waiting. It's very easy to picture this in a modern metro area which probably already has a well-planned (and mostly Tesla) charger network. But just the U.S. alone has 2.3 billion acres of land to cover with chargers at homes, businesses, parking garages, apartments and dedicated charging points. It's not trivial, and it absolutely does not yet exist. (But I believe it's a surmountable business/engineering challenge, if not an expensive one.)
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y agoNote that the average Tesla supercharger costs ~10x less to build to operate than a gas station.
- ethagknight 8y ago