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Difference is the world, and particularly the USA, doesn't need Saudi oil to quite the same extent as previously. Perhaps now they don't need to be the West's
by NeedMoreTea 8y ago
Difference is the world, and particularly the USA, doesn't need Saudi oil to quite the same extent as previously.
Perhaps now they don't need to be the West's principle ally in the region, or given a free pass on every human rights abuse.
- barry-cotter 8y agoThey’ll get a pass until oil doesn’t matter or the water runs out and it’ll all be irrelevant very shortly thereafter. Saudi Arabia’s long term future is no brighter than Yemen’s. If any of the Arab petro-states make it it’ll be the UAE and that’s borderline.
- wallace_f 8y agoWhy do you believe none of the nation states in this region will "make it?"
- analognoise 8y agoI think the general perception is that the region doesn't have anything valuable to export once the oil is gone. They're trying to import scientists and engineers to kick off an economic transition, but those types of people will have zero interest in being in the region once the oil runs out, and the more educated amongst the local populace would leave too. It is already widely held (again, I don't have numbers for this) that the rich/powerful/educated have already secured real estate in other places should instability arise, meaning those people with means or skills would leave once the oil runs out, meaning they don't see a bright future in the region as well. With the recent news articles about the journalist being killed, all of the "modernization" thoughts people had are totally gone. There has been a lot of money thrown into architecting a modern image - all of which was completely undone in one single news cycle. I am no expert on the region though, just fielding some thoughts.
- Nasrudith 8y agoThey have tried some moves but they can't break from the fundamentalism making their efforts pretty moot despite all of the money they throw at it. Mystifyingly they were clearly involved with getting a Sex and the City movie set there. They could have reformed to be a productive post petrol economy but I suspect it was too late even before they decided acting like mob hitmen against journalists was a good idea. You can influence media with money but murdering journalists gives them self preservation reasons to refuse to deal with you at all. Apparently there is a pessimism / old joke there paraphrased as grandfather rode a camel, they drove a jeep, their children drove ferraris and their grandchildren will ride camels.
- golergka 8y agoArab petro-states are not the only nation states in the region.
- barry-cotter 8y ago> Arab petro-states are not the only nation states in the region. They’re the only ones I expressed an opinion on though. In the Arabian peninsula they’re a majority by population and in numbers. There are no non-Arab states on the peninsula at all. Which of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait and Oman do you see having a bright future?
- bloak 8y agoI don't think the term "nation state" is appropriate here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation_state https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation_state I can't work out whether the recent fashion for misusing (or at least generalising) the term "nation state" is just people trying to sound clever (and failing badly), or whether there's something more sinister behind it, perhaps some kind of neo-racism, something along the lines of: if you're an X-ian then you are automatically responsible for anything that an X-ian government agency does, even if the X-ian parliament was never told about it, let alone the general population of X-ia. It's probably just people trying to sound clever but when terminology is changed I'm curious about the reasons.
- someguydave 8y agoThis way of thinking folds neatly into modern identity politics that considers people as groups and not as individuals.
- wallace_f 8y agoJesus christ, I never thought when I asked this question the word nation state would be psychoanalyzed in order to call me a nazi. Wtf? Also, on reddit I was recently called an "anti-white racist." ok. For the record ai agree with your civil libertarian principle of treating people as equals, and not as part of groups.
- Cthulhu_ 8y agoThat's why the Saudis have for a long time extended their business, investing heavily in real estate and what have you. Oil will be gone in 100 years, the skyscrapers won't.
- ddalex 8y agoThe skyscrapers in the desert mean absolutely shit, though. Likewise man made islands that disappear without constant care. Those are not investments. Using money to make more advanced development possible, that's investments. The Norwegians got it right IMHO - they put all their oil money back in the economy, and they are punching now way above their weight! They have about 1% of the EU population, but own about 10% of EU Companies through their investments. Bar any major catastrophe, or very stupid decisions, they will have a good life for generations to come, regardless of their oil futures.
- growlist 8y agoI don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility to imagine future generations might look dimly on wealth gained from oil.
- adrianN 8y agoIn the a similar way as current generations look dimly on wealth gained by stealing land from indigenous populations, or on wealth gained from cutting down almost all old growth forest, I presume.
- x220 8y agoPeople who are well fed, clothed, properly housed, and with little to spend their time on often criticize the culture that feeds them.
- dd36 8y agoThose that aren’t don’t criticize their culture? Seems like maybe criticism is a constant.
- drb91 8y agoIt’s a myth that people “needed” saudi oil. Men are greedy and will use any justification to satiate their greed. It is up to you to accept the justification or not.
- adventured 8y agoNothing has changed about the world's demand/need for Saudi oil, it's near record highs. It's true that between its domestic production growth and Canada, the US could just about painlessly replace Saudi oil imports if it were necessary (1m barrels imported per day from Saudi in 2017). The US should add another million barrels per day in production over the coming year. Saudi Arabia's production plunging (eg due to a revolution or embargo), would legitimately crash the global economy. China, India and Japan (three of the five largest economies) heavily depend on their supply. Maybe in another ~25-30 years Saudi Arabia's oil won't be very necessary for the global economy, assuming electric vehicles make enough headway.
- baybal2 8y ago>Saudi Arabia's production plunging (eg due to a revolution or embargo), would legitimately crash the global economy. China, India and Japan (three of the five largest economies) heavily depend on their supply. No, it wouldn't. Prices and taxation regime will simply adjust. Proof? Last decade prices were hitting $130+, yet nobody died. Price of air travel have plummeted last decade, and been going up since then, despite kero getting cheaper! And so did many other fuel cost sensitive industries. What you said above is a popular culture myth.
- nl 8y agoI'm not sure that is true anymore. There were a bunch of oil development projects that started up 10 years ago at $100+/barrel prices which were put on hold. IT is surprising how quickly they can be brought online. Last time the oil price peaked we saw how effective technological change is at opening new fields and techniques. There is also a whole bunch of Russian and deep offshore fields which become economical at high prices too.
- sschueller 8y agoIt's not about the oil itself (US has plenty and can import from Canada) but the control of the price and that oil is traded in USD. The US has started multiple wars to prevent the oil price from being traded in another currency.
- analognoise 8y agoWait, what? Which wars were those?
- pjc50 8y agoI'm not sure this makes any sense - there's no benefit to using USD for the pricing if the contract is settled outside the US, and there are RMB-denominated oil futures available. Ironically as a result of sanctions on Iran, which isn't allowed to trade oil through any institution connected to the US. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/16/iran-oil-trumps-sanctions-create-crude-trading-boom-in-china.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/16/iran-oil-trumps-sanctions-cr...
- sonnyblarney 8y agoThere is a seignorage advantage, in that people need access to USD. It's definitely a big advantage, and it provides a nice base of support for USD. But the US is definitely not starting wars over it.
- nl 8y ago
- jannes 8y agoAbout 10% of the USA's imported oil comes from Saudi Arabia.[0] That would leave a pretty sizable hole in the supply. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States#/media/File:U.S._oil_Imports_by_Country_of_Origin.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States...
- expathacker 8y agoThe Trump regime is salivating at the idea of removing all restrictions on fracking. He could also easily switch alliances away from KSR by easing sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. The gap is negligible given those two potential scenarios. A side-effect of ending our persecution of Iran, however, is that Putin would likely start a war. If Iran were allowed to dump their vast natural gas supplies on the open market, Russia's economy would starve. (Edited for formatting / spelling / grammar).
- baybal2 8y ago>A side-effect of ending our persecution of Iran, however, is that Putin would likely start a war. If Iran were allowed to dump their vast natural gas supplies on the open market, Russia's economy would starve. No, he wouldn't. Russian establishment has no balls for that, Russian regime was already in survival mode by the end of Putin's first presidency. All they want now is to be left alone with their puny savings from days of abundance, and to die before their money run out. Their expansionist ambitions? A bluff, a diversionary manoeuvre - plainly and simple.
- raverbashing 8y agoSounds like the money for internet trolls hasn't run out though, given how active they are
- baybal2 8y agoThat is too, just a diversion. They prefer Pentagon to be busy with their trolls than with them personally.