9 ms·
Facts and charts that show the world is getting better
- itomato 8y agoIf you see multiple indicators that rapid and increasing population growth is assured as a sign that 'the world is getting better', I fear for our future.
- soroso 8y agoMiniPlenty - 1984
- Green_man 8y agoI see multiple indicators that extreme poverty has decreased, with a simultaneous increase in overall population as a great achievement.
- platz 8y agosic itur ad astra
- dtech 8y agoI do not agree on the "increasing" part. Developing countries are undergoing the same transition western countries had at the beginning of the 20th century, where the number of children went down from 5+ to <2 like it is today. The UN predicts that the population will stabilize between 11 and 12 billion around 2100. That is much more than today which poses a large challenge, but not an insurmountable one.
- 40acres 8y agoTaken by itself I don't think population growth is a positive or negative statistic. People are living longer, death by disease is down, childhood mortality and death by pregnant mothers is down. These are all good stats. How population affects climate change seems to be the biggest negative externality.
- itomato 8y agoAlone maybe they are "good stats". The trend doesn't bode well for a sustained livelihood with our planet when fishery stocks are being exploited and depleted at an equal rate. Of the 600 marine fish stocks monitored by FAO: 3% are underexploited 20% are moderately exploited 52% are fully exploited 17% are overexploited 7% are depleted 1% are recovering from depletion Further troubles exist on land, with global deforestation increasing YOY. How will more people living longer benefit from these factors?
- CM30 8y agoNow all we need is the media to stop being so negative about everything and break the 'controversy for clicks' bullshit they seem to depend on. Honestly, just a complete freeze on stories about Trump, Brexit and terrorism for a week or two would probably cheer up a lot of people and break the 'everythings going to hell' narrative that's infecting society right now.
- tenukitime 8y agoWe also need religions to stop insisting that the world is going to hell in a handbasket.
- el_benhameen 8y agoI used to cite facts like those in these charts to try to convince myself or others that things are on an upward trajectory and that we’re just at a local minimim, if anything. But man, I just can’t stomach it anymore. Most of the points made by these charts will be moot at best and reversed at worse if the concerns outlined in that latest climate report come true, and we’ve got politicians and a population who at best don’t give a shit. It seems naive to try to make the “everything is getting better!” point anymore.
- kauffj 8y agoMy understanding is that the IPCC estimates put the costs of climate change at ~2% of world GDP, and more aggressive estimates still have it under 10%. Is there a reason that cost would eliminate all of the gains cited in this article? Or are you basing the expected impacts off of another source?
- coldtea 8y ago>My understanding is that the IPCC estimates put the costs of climate change at ~2% of world GDP, and more aggressive estimates still have it under 10%. Kind of like the initial Titanic captain's estimates after the impact with the iceberg? The IPCC is a bureaucracy, it's job is to balance climate change control demands with requirements from businesses and governments to "not do much" because doing what's appropriate is bad for business and goes against the hysterics for "continuous growth" on which modern policy and economy is based on...
- el_benhameen 8y agoI’m not so concerned with the fiscal costs, and I think it’s short-sighted to think of the problem as one that can be solved or ameliorated by moving dollars and percentages around. The human and environmental costs, dollars aside, are staggering and painful to think about. E.g. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-report-half-degree.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-... 37% of world population exposed to extreme heat waves and an additional 400 million people exposed to extreme drought at a 2 degree increase. And they’ll be angry, and they’ll either find somewhere else to go en masse or will suffer even more if they can’t leave.
- hliyan 8y agoPerhaps this article is not truly complete without a graph representing the general trend of economic inequality since the early 1980's...
- nabla9 8y agoGoogle "elephant curve". Only those with income in top 75-99 percentiles have not followed the richest 1 percent. West bitches about income inequality because our working class and middle class have low productivity growth. In the rest of the world incomes have kept up.
- mistermann 8y ago> low productivity growth Low productivity growth, or low wage growth (and possibly, especially when compared to productivity growth)? Do you believe those bitching have a legitimate grievance?
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- kauffj 8y agoThat's a great point! Global income inequality has been dropping steadily: https://ourworldindata.org/global-economic-inequality https://ourworldindata.org/global-economic-inequality
- lucideer 8y agoLooks from that source like things have improved enormously in Asia, improved slightly in Africa, and after a century of improvements, have started to reverse in the West.
- bjt2n3904 8y agoWhile I'm thankful for all these things, empiricism falls short of being able to tell us about the state of the world. What are the units of love, and suffering? How do you measure them, and plot them on a graph? And furthermore, how do you know how these will trend in the next decade, much less the next year?
- coldtea 8y agoDon't give these charts too much credit in the "empiricism" department either. There's lots of cherry picking and manipulation involved in government statistics...
- sievebrain 8y agoNot a big fan of vox but this is a nice article, such reminders are always welcome. It is however unfortunate that the journalist feels a need to start with the usual silly bashfest - democracy is dying you see, except for this graph in our own article that shows democracies have never been more common. I realise this journalist is distinguishing between "democracy" and "liberal democracy" but for an article filled with graphs you'd think they could show some data to back up the point.
- cabaalis 8y agoIt's kind of a form of virtue signaling (edit: or at least tribalism.) Like saying: "I'm about to say good things about the state of the world, that don't jive with your current feelings about things. I know, I know, we're on the same team, and none of what I'm about to say is at all attributable to that awful politician we all hate."
- wiz21c 8y agoFTA : >>> 4) People in developed countries have more leisure time which is justified by a decrease in the number of work hours iin a week. As it occured to those guys that if the number of working hours decrease it's because unemployment increases. And, in my country, unemployment is not exactly leisure time, it's stressful time, ain't money, must find a job... >>> 8) Death in childbirth is rarer Well most of the progress were down in the 19th century, so they're counting mostly insignifcant things (statistically, I don*t mean childbirth is insignificant at all, got kids) >>> 9) People have been getting taller for centuries That's in europe, i.e. a small part of the world >>> 17) We’ve rapidly reduced the supply of nuclear weapons didn't know that, it looks much better than those anti-nuclear guys said to me last time. Good news indeed. >>> 18) More people in the world live in a democracy now That's so wester/occidental... Who says that democracy is such a good news ? >>> 19) More people are going to school for longer What about the other countries ? >>> 22) Access to the internet is increasing Read the exact opposite 2 days ago (lost the source though :( ) ...
- coldtea 8y ago>>> 17) We’ve rapidly reduced the supply of nuclear weapons >didn't know that, it looks much better than those anti-nuclear guys said to me last time. Good news indeed On the other hand the "reduced supply" is irrelevant, since they're still more than enough to kill millions and impact the lives of billions. The important question is if we reduced the likelihood of them being used, not if they went from 1000 to 200 in some hangar...
- 8y ago
- Gys 8y agoA nice optimistic view on the development of mankind in this world. Its probably very human to think mankind is the only kind that really matters, so mankind = world.
- robbrown451 8y agoI'm concerned about all the pebbles. Does anyone think of the pebbles?
- OnlyRepliesToBS 8y agoWords.
- seltzered_ 8y agoIf you want to read some interesting dissent to the Pinker-esque positivism, try Nicolas Guilhot's review of 'enlightenment now': https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/discussions/1993064/h-diplo-commentary-1-enlightenment-now-case-reason-science https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/discussions/1993064/h-... "There is a lot that is wrong with this line of thinking. But what is truly disturbing is not so much the methodological fallacies due to scale as their ethical implications: the ‘big picture’ rhetoric obfuscates massive disparities but it also denies their systemic character."
- grecy 8y agoI'm in the middle of reading "Factfulness" by Hans Rosling, which does an excellent job of clearly demonstrating that not only are billions of people living better lives than they did 20 years ago, but that also we're conditioned not to believe that good news. The world is a lot different than many people think. I highly recommend it. [1] Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think - https://amzn.to/2CXPdCu https://amzn.to/2CXPdCu
- amelius 8y agoI'm a huge fan, and was shocked when Rosling died last year. Educating people about these basic facts is important; who will take his place?
- eliaspro 8y agoHis son and his daughter in law continue doing a great job at Gapminder [1]. They also finished and published Hans' book after his death. Max Roser's fantastic project "Our World In Data" [2] does. Steve Pinker [3] as well. [1] https://www.gapminder.org/ https://www.gapminder.org/ [2] https://ourworldindata.org/ https://ourworldindata.org/ [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Pinker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Pinker
- tombrossman 8y agoDirect link, for those who prefer not to click on affiliate/referral links: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1250107814/ https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1250107814/
- mkaziz 8y agoCurrently reading it too - it's an amazing, heart-warming book.
- ThomPete 8y agoStatistically, humans have one testicle. The world is getting better statistically, that's the good news. That doesn't mean that everyone experiences it even if they are part of that very statistics.
- didibus 8y agoI'd be concerned if the world didn't average one testicle. I understand the min could have gotten worst, the max higher, and the middle unchanged. And its not like we should all pat ourself on the back and stop trying. But, if the statistic were showing things to be getting worse, it would be way worse. So I can't really agree with the defeatist attitude here, there's no way to put this data in a bad light, this is the trend you want to see.
- ThomPete 8y agoIt's not about putting it in bad light it's about showing how the statistics world can be 100% correct but still not represent the real world.
- otherme123 8y agoIf the humanity is trending to have on average 1.9 testicles, you can safely assume that there are many more males than females.
- chiefalchemist 8y agoBut. Not all those betters are better. For example, spending less on food is not the same as eating healthier. In the first world obesity is creating a crisis. Taller? That traslates to needing more resources. More to feed. More to clothe. I'm not waiting to be a cynic. But using 20th century metrics nearly two decades into the 21st century is not a status quo that makes me comfortable; especially as I extrapolate into the future.
- achamayou 8y agoAh, but check out the chart about average temperature, we might not need as much clothing after all! In all seriousness, I’ll take an obesity crisis over starvation any day. Sure we haven’t achieved perfect nutrition, but the situation is undoubtedly better.
- chiefalchemist 8y agoAh. Be careful what you wish for. Fact: More people now die as a result of too much food than not enough. Add on the related (healthcare) costs and we're over-eating our way to more problems we can't afford.
- achamayou 8y agoYes, but crucially, they choose to eat too much. They could stop. Those who starve never do so of their own will, and would absolutely take the alternative if it was available to them. As for the healthcare costs, I expect we will see something very similar to what happened with tobacco. A combination of economic disincentives and regulatory measures (no sugary drinks and snacks in schools, smaller portions etc), which will ultimately curb the problem.
- arbitrary_name 8y agoYou act as if free choice occurs in a vacuum. It does not. Billions spent on advertising, public policy designed to benefit the agriculture and food industries: let's not pretend we are all perfectly informed rational actors, that fallacy was debunked a generation ago.
- pdimitar 8y agoStatistical averages are an awful way of measuring anything beyond 100 - 1000 people and I am surprised to see statistics is still practiced in its classic form to this day. As another poster said, the average person world-wide has one testicle -- yay for valuable info? It basically tells you nothing. As a programmer struggling in Eastern Europe at 38 year old still -- things are very far from what these rosy articles are trying to convince you of. And seeing what other people at 22-25 are going through... you don't want to know. But people are quick to believe optimistic statistics when their livelihood isn't at stake. As the saying goes, it ain't true until it happens to you. Then it's suddenly oh so true.
- didibus 8y agoThings getting better in the average doesn't mean they're getting better for you. It does mean that they're improving though. Imagine how hard you'd have it had the average fallen on all these metrics instead of getting better. None of that means its all great and well. Which I assume is your point? Would be interesting to see a plot of this graph at the p0 and p100 (min/max) to get an idea of the baselines.
- pdimitar 8y agoI am saying that this claimed economical well-being is still largely clustered by countries or even regions. That I am struggling means nothing in the global scale, that is true -- but when you see almost everybody around you struggle then you have a very hard time believing these articles. My mother got a slightly bigger pension -- which changed it from 55 to 60 EUR a month. That's not a typo. Hooray for 10% improvement? I feel these stats would be much more credible if they gave you your actual % more direct buying power in terms of food, tech or leisure time based on your country -- not on a world-wide average which is non-informative. The way these stats articles are currently framed though, they are all but useless.
- didibus 8y agoI totally agree, some countries and regions could very well be on the decline, while the average is still going up. And that's a big problem. And if you're looking for insight into your own area, ya this is not really trying to be an article to allow you to make data driven decisions about your local politics and laws. It would have been nice of them to put all these into a tableau dashboard with many more dimensions so we could have played with the data some more and gathered better insight. That said, I disagree about these averages being useless. They're still a valid indicator of the world average in some specific metrics. And for those, they're showing a good trend for the better. If we were to monitor them, and discover a drastic change in one of them, it would be cause for concern. Similarly, seeing them continue to improve is cause for consolation.
- k__ 8y agoI always had the feeling much more people were smoking in the past. At least 4 out of 5.
- dc2 8y agoThis is a breath of fresh air.
- antoineMoPa 8y agoOk, but what about debt, climate change, pollution in the ocean, loss of biodiversity, me busting my 2000 free minutes of CI in gitlab, etc.
- paulpauper 8y agoSteven pinker wrote about this in 2007. his words still ring true despite an increasingly partisan and negative media and political landscape.
- dilap 8y agoTo say "short term murder rates are down" and then show a graph ending in 2015 is pretty dishonest. (There was a sharp uptick in '16.)
- TheOtherHobbes 8y agoThis reminds me of those 'And we can be confident this bull run will last forever!' financial sermons you see just before a major crash. There are huge, huge problems in the medium/near term. Faith, hope, and what used to be called boosterism are a poor substitute for active, tangible solutions.
- jexah 8y agoInteresting to note that Vox is reporting on something real.
- ben_utzer 8y agoHomicide rate have fallen since 1400. Nice. Why starting that far away? People understand time surrounding them of around 100 years. No one really compares themselves to people that lived 200 years ago or more.
- amai 8y agoNeeds a 2014 in the title.