7 ms·

Chances DNA can be used to find your family? Sixty percent and rising

86 points by okket 8y ago

dv_dt 8y ago
So what might the broad social effects be if every adopted child has increasingly better odds of tracing their parentage?
- OedipusRex 8y ago
  My mother got a call about three years ago from a man who told her he thinks his mother is my mother's sister. Turns out my grandmother had a child at 16 and put her up for adoption. Now I have an extra aunt and she's super cool.
  - njarboe 8y ago
    Most of these sort of stories turn out ok. The ones I have yet to hear about is when a person discovers that their father is not their genetic father due to their mother's infidelity. This is likely to be true for millions of people in the US. Or maybe estimates I've seen for this happening are way high? If it is only one in a thousand, then that would mean 300,000 people in the US are in this situation. Most are likely to find out eventually as more and more people get their DNA sequenced.
    - dsfyu404ed 8y ago
      When people find out that their dad isn't actually they're biological dad they're not going to tell anybody because it is likely to make everyone hate each other (especially if the non-biological dad doesn't know already) and because it reflects poorly on them in some contexts. There's probably a lot of mothers out there who feel really worried when they read news stories like this and there's probably a lot of people who aren't much like their sibling(s) that wonder.
      - PHGamer 8y ago
        lol i know someone who found out this via one of those gene services. gained an extra sister from his real father. Its a big issue because its generally viewed a evolutionary acceptable for a father to sire multiple offspring from different women but if a women cheats on man and the only son of that man is not his, its a big ego kill. For that reason the secret was kept till his father died.
        skookumchuck 8y ago
        It's more than a big ego kill. In the most extreme example, kingship is hereditary, and people would fight wars over who the legitimate heir was.
        onetimemanytime 8y ago
        Plus, you're working your ass off to raise someone else's offspring. So it is different. Darwin spinning in his grave: "Nah, we already have a child, let's not have any more."
      - LitFan 8y ago
        > they're not going to tell anybody The angst they save their family still exists - they'll keep it to themselves. Even without sharing, that's bound to have some social implications.
    - hellogoodbyeeee 8y ago
      What scares me worse than finding out about a mother's actual infidelity is the test, due to statistical variation, falsely reporting infidelity. Could that happen? Or are the DNA tests correct 100% of the time?
      - yorwba 8y ago
        Since most humans inherit exactly half of their DNA from each parent, it should be pretty obvious when 50% match the mother and the rest doesn't match either parent. So long as enough locations are checked, the probability of getting such a result by chance mutations could be made extremely low.
        dragonwriter 8y ago
        > Since most humans inherit exactly half of their DNA from each parent, it should be pretty obvious when 50% match the mother and the rest doesn't match either parent. Assuming the other parent is human, or even from the same tree of life, that's not going to happen, because the actual parent will share some DNA with the purported parent; you'll never get 50% match the actual mother, 0% match neither the mother nor the putative father.
        yorwba 8y ago
        Ah, right, I was only thinking about locations which are already different between mother and father.
        dv_dt 8y ago
        There are odd reported cases of people being chimeras and carrying two different genotypes in their bodies. But again, extremely unlikely - but I suspect we will find out more and more about the exceptions which break the expected rollup of model of locations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimera_%28genetics%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimera_%28genetics%29
    - dekhn 8y ago
      This is called Npe (not parent expected) and iirc 10% of tests have that result.
      - njarboe 8y ago
        Hiding that one or both parents are not the biological parents from the child is one thing. A child finding out about that, while serious, not that devastating and a pretty common event. The father not knowing that the child is not his is a different ball of wax. The mother will always know the child is hers or not (baby switching in hospitals and other rare events excepted). What percentage of children have fathers that are not their biological fathers and the father doen't know it? I have no idea, but this fact being discovered via DNA is going to really hurt a lot of relationships from each discovery.
    - lallysingh 8y ago
      1-2% per generation: https://www.kqed.org/science/11450/new-dna-studies-debunk-misconceptions-about-paternal-relationships https://www.kqed.org/science/11450/new-dna-studies-debunk-mi...
- derefr 8y ago
  I would assume that voluntary sperm donation would sharply fall.
  - nervousvarun 8y ago
    Ostensibly yes...but with supply and demand being what it is, the economical value of viable sperm is going to drastically start increasing. https://www.gq.com/story/sperm-count-zero https://www.gq.com/story/sperm-count-zero
  - pessimizer 8y ago
    Also, more abortion.
- kodablah 8y ago
  Optimistically, reduced value of biological roots and the knowledge of them. Essentially as this information is more available, it will be easier to obtain and likely be considered less important. Pessimistically, reduced incentive for adoption on both sides due to reduced pre-adoption anonymity.
- qubax 8y ago
  Adoption is so rare that it won't have broad social effects. But on an individual or family level, it can have positive and negative consequences. It all depends on the people and situation.
TomK32 8y ago
I wish they'd use it for something good like the estimated 300000 stolen children during Francoism.
- lallysingh 8y ago
  Or the children currently being separated from their parents at the US border.
  - auton1 8y ago
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercurynews.com/2018/06/21/congresswoman-jackie-speier-asks-23andme-to-reunite-families-separated-at-border/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercurynews.com/2018/06/21/...
FactolSarin 8y ago
My wife and I used IVF to get pregnant. The issue was on her side, so we used donor eggs. It was completely anonymous, of course, but lately I've been wondering what's going to happen if (let's be honest, when) my children decide to use a service like 23AndMe. Will they want to get in touch with the donor or her family? What affect will that have on my wife, who probably would feel diminished as the mother if that happened? I don't know, and honestly it's not something we considered five years ago when we had our kids. Those services existed at the time, but they hadn't taken off like they have in the last few years. I think it's something anyone considering sperm/egg donation (either as a recipient or a donor) has to consider. If one side wants to connect, it's probably going to happen.
- netcan 8y ago
  C'est la vie, no? I realize it seems strange, but is it not just because it's new. Is it really all that different from some unknown cousin or somesuch popping up in your life? The truth, is that IVF exists. I don't think we should feel ashamed or disturbed that it's true. It's wonderful that you guys get to be parents, and that we're no longer totally limited by biology. There's other stuff to worry about anyway, when it comes to having kids. What if they become teenagers?
  - simonebrunozzi 8y ago
    > There's other stuff to worry about anyway, when it comes to having kids. What if they become teenagers? LOL. You made my day.
- arcbyte 8y ago
  I regret that humans can suffer feelings of inadequacy like feeling diminished as a mother, and I certainly sympathize with your wife because she will almost certainly have to fight thoughts like that, but I don't believe for a moment that those feelings have any validity. I am sure she will be a great mother and should have no regrets! That said, I believe everyone ought to have a right to know their genetic lineage. It doesn't make anyone any less of a person or diminish their contributions - but for the sole reason of medical insight it ought to be knowable.
blutfink 8y ago
I wonder if the family of Benjaman Kyle [0] will eventually be found as more and more people are added to the databases. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjaman_Kyle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjaman_Kyle
- ars 8y ago
  They were found in 2015. It's in the article you linked to.
emptybits 8y ago
> This is a rare case where a potential forensic tool is probably biased toward identifying wealthy white individuals.
UI_at_80x24 8y ago
Tools like this are the only way most descendants of slavery can trace their heritage AND find relatives. For a lot of people 'family history' stops at 3 generations ago. Not only are they denied heritage, they are denied a home, a land, and a people. A sense of connection to the past is denied them. DNA services are the only way to make these connections. And they are not trust worthy.
- in_cahoots 8y ago
  Most gene testing services aren’t nearly as accurate for people of non-European descent. I saw this when getting some prenatal screening - there’s a whole suite of tests for various European sub populations, and almost nothing for people of African descent.
inetknght 8y ago
Disclaimer: I work for a genetics genealogy company. My comments are my own. > If, for whatever reason, you'd like to maintain your privacy, the researchers have a couple of suggestions you could support. One is simply to have the government redefine private information to reflect this new reality, so that the studies it funds no longer link any personal information with DNA sequences. Improving government research anonymization standards is a good thing. But it will not go nearly far enough to solve privacy complaints from relatives of people who've had their DNA commercially tested for genealogy. > They also suggest that companies that offer direct-to-consumer genetics standardize on a signed, encrypted file format for information on variations. That would prevent people from taking DNA information from other sources, like DNA sequence repositories, and using it to track down your family members. I strongly believe more and better privacy regulation is necessary. I'm really curious to learn more about what sort of encrypted file format this person wants to standardize on and exactly how it's supposed to prevent people from taking DNA information from other sources.
- criddell 8y ago
  > I strongly believe more and better privacy regulation is necessary. What do you think the consequences will be if that doesn't happen?
  - inetknght 8y ago
    Consider that there are a significant number of people who don't know they have more relatives than the ones they know and love. If the information is public, it becomes an avenue for blackmailing. Scams about relatives already happen without DNA [1]. Depending on what state in which you live your insurance coverage or cost might change too. [2] There's also significant risk that your DNA will be sequenced in one jurisdiction but, because of The Cloud, it gets analyzed and stored in another jurisdiction. For example, the EU and US have very different privacy laws. Some DNA analysis software employ stochastic algorithms. That means that the answer they provide can be different if run more than once, especially if run with different parameters (such as sample pool). [3] [4] Some customers know this and will ask for their data to be reanalyzed. Some companies make the DNA available to be downloaded by the customer. That file can then be used for your own analysis or research. It could also be uploaded to other companies for different analyses or conclusions. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that your grandmother, who uploaded her DNA to a foreign company for a new or different analysis, has given a foreign adversary private information about you and your potential medical hazards or secret relationships. [1] https://www.khou.com/gallery/news/investigations/consumer/virtual-kidnapping-a-scary-extortion-scam/285-157917908 https://www.khou.com/gallery/news/investigations/consumer/vi... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/04/4--risks-consumer-face-with-dna-testing-and-buying-life-insurance.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/04/4--risks-consumer-face-with-... [3] http://mathgen.stats.ox.ac.uk/impute/impute_v2.html http://mathgen.stats.ox.ac.uk/impute/impute_v2.html [4] http://www.genetics.ucla.edu/software/admixture/ http://www.genetics.ucla.edu/software/admixture/
anon49124 8y ago
GATTACA here we come. People discovering and discriminating against genetic traits.

86 points by okket 8y ago

So what might the broad social effects be if every adopted child has increasingly better odds of tracing their parentage?

OedipusRex 8y ago
My mother got a call about three years ago from a man who told her he thinks his mother is my mother's sister. Turns out my grandmother had a child at 16 and put her up for adoption. Now I have an extra aunt and she's super cool.
- njarboe 8y ago
  Most of these sort of stories turn out ok. The ones I have yet to hear about is when a person discovers that their father is not their genetic father due to their mother's infidelity. This is likely to be true for millions of people in the US. Or maybe estimates I've seen for this happening are way high? If it is only one in a thousand, then that would mean 300,000 people in the US are in this situation. Most are likely to find out eventually as more and more people get their DNA sequenced.
  - dsfyu404ed 8y ago
    When people find out that their dad isn't actually they're biological dad they're not going to tell anybody because it is likely to make everyone hate each other (especially if the non-biological dad doesn't know already) and because it reflects poorly on them in some contexts. There's probably a lot of mothers out there who feel really worried when they read news stories like this and there's probably a lot of people who aren't much like their sibling(s) that wonder.
    - PHGamer 8y ago
      lol i know someone who found out this via one of those gene services. gained an extra sister from his real father. Its a big issue because its generally viewed a evolutionary acceptable for a father to sire multiple offspring from different women but if a women cheats on man and the only son of that man is not his, its a big ego kill. For that reason the secret was kept till his father died.
      - skookumchuck 8y ago
        It's more than a big ego kill. In the most extreme example, kingship is hereditary, and people would fight wars over who the legitimate heir was.
        onetimemanytime 8y ago
        Plus, you're working your ass off to raise someone else's offspring. So it is different. Darwin spinning in his grave: "Nah, we already have a child, let's not have any more."
    - LitFan 8y ago
      > they're not going to tell anybody The angst they save their family still exists - they'll keep it to themselves. Even without sharing, that's bound to have some social implications.
  - hellogoodbyeeee 8y ago
    What scares me worse than finding out about a mother's actual infidelity is the test, due to statistical variation, falsely reporting infidelity. Could that happen? Or are the DNA tests correct 100% of the time?
    - yorwba 8y ago
      Since most humans inherit exactly half of their DNA from each parent, it should be pretty obvious when 50% match the mother and the rest doesn't match either parent. So long as enough locations are checked, the probability of getting such a result by chance mutations could be made extremely low.
      - dragonwriter 8y ago
        > Since most humans inherit exactly half of their DNA from each parent, it should be pretty obvious when 50% match the mother and the rest doesn't match either parent. Assuming the other parent is human, or even from the same tree of life, that's not going to happen, because the actual parent will share some DNA with the purported parent; you'll never get 50% match the actual mother, 0% match neither the mother nor the putative father.
        yorwba 8y ago
        Ah, right, I was only thinking about locations which are already different between mother and father.
      - dv_dt 8y ago
        There are odd reported cases of people being chimeras and carrying two different genotypes in their bodies. But again, extremely unlikely - but I suspect we will find out more and more about the exceptions which break the expected rollup of model of locations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimera_%28genetics%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimera_%28genetics%29
  - dekhn 8y ago
    This is called Npe (not parent expected) and iirc 10% of tests have that result.
    - njarboe 8y ago
      Hiding that one or both parents are not the biological parents from the child is one thing. A child finding out about that, while serious, not that devastating and a pretty common event. The father not knowing that the child is not his is a different ball of wax. The mother will always know the child is hers or not (baby switching in hospitals and other rare events excepted). What percentage of children have fathers that are not their biological fathers and the father doen't know it? I have no idea, but this fact being discovered via DNA is going to really hurt a lot of relationships from each discovery.
  - lallysingh 8y ago
    1-2% per generation: https://www.kqed.org/science/11450/new-dna-studies-debunk-misconceptions-about-paternal-relationships https://www.kqed.org/science/11450/new-dna-studies-debunk-mi...
derefr 8y ago
I would assume that voluntary sperm donation would sharply fall.
- nervousvarun 8y ago
  Ostensibly yes...but with supply and demand being what it is, the economical value of viable sperm is going to drastically start increasing. https://www.gq.com/story/sperm-count-zero https://www.gq.com/story/sperm-count-zero
- pessimizer 8y ago
  Also, more abortion.
kodablah 8y ago
Optimistically, reduced value of biological roots and the knowledge of them. Essentially as this information is more available, it will be easier to obtain and likely be considered less important. Pessimistically, reduced incentive for adoption on both sides due to reduced pre-adoption anonymity.
qubax 8y ago
Adoption is so rare that it won't have broad social effects. But on an individual or family level, it can have positive and negative consequences. It all depends on the people and situation.

TomK32 8y ago

I wish they'd use it for something good like the estimated 300000 stolen children during Francoism.

lallysingh 8y ago
Or the children currently being separated from their parents at the US border.
- auton1 8y ago
  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercurynews.com/2018/06/21/congresswoman-jackie-speier-asks-23andme-to-reunite-families-separated-at-border/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercurynews.com/2018/06/21/...

FactolSarin 8y ago

My wife and I used IVF to get pregnant. The issue was on her side, so we used donor eggs. It was completely anonymous, of course, but lately I've been wondering what's going to happen if (let's be honest, when) my children decide to use a service like 23AndMe. Will they want to get in touch with the donor or her family? What affect will that have on my wife, who probably would feel diminished as the mother if that happened? I don't know, and honestly it's not something we considered five years ago when we had our kids. Those services existed at the time, but they hadn't taken off like they have in the last few years. I think it's something anyone considering sperm/egg donation (either as a recipient or a donor) has to consider. If one side wants to connect, it's probably going to happen.

netcan 8y ago
C'est la vie, no? I realize it seems strange, but is it not just because it's new. Is it really all that different from some unknown cousin or somesuch popping up in your life? The truth, is that IVF exists. I don't think we should feel ashamed or disturbed that it's true. It's wonderful that you guys get to be parents, and that we're no longer totally limited by biology. There's other stuff to worry about anyway, when it comes to having kids. What if they become teenagers?
- simonebrunozzi 8y ago
  > There's other stuff to worry about anyway, when it comes to having kids. What if they become teenagers? LOL. You made my day.
arcbyte 8y ago
I regret that humans can suffer feelings of inadequacy like feeling diminished as a mother, and I certainly sympathize with your wife because she will almost certainly have to fight thoughts like that, but I don't believe for a moment that those feelings have any validity. I am sure she will be a great mother and should have no regrets! That said, I believe everyone ought to have a right to know their genetic lineage. It doesn't make anyone any less of a person or diminish their contributions - but for the sole reason of medical insight it ought to be knowable.

blutfink 8y ago

I wonder if the family of Benjaman Kyle [0] will eventually be found as more and more people are added to the databases. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjaman_Kyle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjaman_Kyle

ars 8y ago
They were found in 2015. It's in the article you linked to.

emptybits 8y ago

> This is a rare case where a potential forensic tool is probably biased toward identifying wealthy white individuals.

UI_at_80x24 8y ago

Tools like this are the only way most descendants of slavery can trace their heritage AND find relatives. For a lot of people 'family history' stops at 3 generations ago. Not only are they denied heritage, they are denied a home, a land, and a people. A sense of connection to the past is denied them. DNA services are the only way to make these connections. And they are not trust worthy.

in_cahoots 8y ago
Most gene testing services aren’t nearly as accurate for people of non-European descent. I saw this when getting some prenatal screening - there’s a whole suite of tests for various European sub populations, and almost nothing for people of African descent.

inetknght 8y ago

Disclaimer: I work for a genetics genealogy company. My comments are my own. > If, for whatever reason, you'd like to maintain your privacy, the researchers have a couple of suggestions you could support. One is simply to have the government redefine private information to reflect this new reality, so that the studies it funds no longer link any personal information with DNA sequences. Improving government research anonymization standards is a good thing. But it will not go nearly far enough to solve privacy complaints from relatives of people who've had their DNA commercially tested for genealogy. > They also suggest that companies that offer direct-to-consumer genetics standardize on a signed, encrypted file format for information on variations. That would prevent people from taking DNA information from other sources, like DNA sequence repositories, and using it to track down your family members. I strongly believe more and better privacy regulation is necessary. I'm really curious to learn more about what sort of encrypted file format this person wants to standardize on and exactly how it's supposed to prevent people from taking DNA information from other sources.

criddell 8y ago
> I strongly believe more and better privacy regulation is necessary. What do you think the consequences will be if that doesn't happen?
- inetknght 8y ago
  Consider that there are a significant number of people who don't know they have more relatives than the ones they know and love. If the information is public, it becomes an avenue for blackmailing. Scams about relatives already happen without DNA [1]. Depending on what state in which you live your insurance coverage or cost might change too. [2] There's also significant risk that your DNA will be sequenced in one jurisdiction but, because of The Cloud, it gets analyzed and stored in another jurisdiction. For example, the EU and US have very different privacy laws. Some DNA analysis software employ stochastic algorithms. That means that the answer they provide can be different if run more than once, especially if run with different parameters (such as sample pool). [3] [4] Some customers know this and will ask for their data to be reanalyzed. Some companies make the DNA available to be downloaded by the customer. That file can then be used for your own analysis or research. It could also be uploaded to other companies for different analyses or conclusions. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that your grandmother, who uploaded her DNA to a foreign company for a new or different analysis, has given a foreign adversary private information about you and your potential medical hazards or secret relationships. [1] https://www.khou.com/gallery/news/investigations/consumer/virtual-kidnapping-a-scary-extortion-scam/285-157917908 https://www.khou.com/gallery/news/investigations/consumer/vi... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/04/4--risks-consumer-face-with-dna-testing-and-buying-life-insurance.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/04/4--risks-consumer-face-with-... [3] http://mathgen.stats.ox.ac.uk/impute/impute_v2.html http://mathgen.stats.ox.ac.uk/impute/impute_v2.html [4] http://www.genetics.ucla.edu/software/admixture/ http://www.genetics.ucla.edu/software/admixture/

anon49124 8y ago

GATTACA here we come. People discovering and discriminating against genetic traits.