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Tesla to achieve leading $100/kWh battery cell cost this year, says investor
- olivermarks 8y agoHow recyclable are these batteries? I haven't seen much info on how they will be handled at end of life.
- toomuchtodo 8y agoVery recyclable.
- maxerickson 8y agoDoesn't it still cost more than mining new ores?
- hwillis 8y agoRecycling vs extraction, as a technical process? No. But the effort of locating, transporting and reselling material is much more expensive, proportionally, at the current scale. Recycling a battery is not something that can be done locally, so it can require freight shipping. The end product may be a very small amount of materials that is too small to justify hiring salesmen. The flow of product is far too unreliable. Still, it's economical to recycle batteries for the heavy metals alone. Recycling lithium would require an additional step (similar to the final steps of processing lithium brine, but simpler) that currently isn't done. Its cheaper to recycle than to extract even lithium, but the value of lithium in a battery is a couple dozen times less than the heavy metals.
- hwillis 8y agoExtremely. Tesla batteries require some disassembly effort, and the model 3 makes recycling trickier because the cells are potted in plastic, but the actual cells of any li ion battery are eminently recyclable. The process involves shredding or incinerating the cells first, then dumping the results in an electrolysis tank. Because the cells are essentially just chunks of plastic, aluminum, copper (and steel for teslas) and various powders, the large chunks can be easily sorted from the anode and cathode material by washing. The powder goes into an electrolysis bath, which extracts the high-value metals (cobalt and nickel) to a pretty good purity. The carbon leftovers (anode, electrolyte, and plastics) collect at the bottom with the lithium and leftover cathode material (aluminum, silicon, other things depending on the chemistry). The leftovers are mostly sold as clinker. You could extract the lithium from that, but at present it's not done. For one thing, batteries actually have a lower concentration of lithium than lithium brine and even some lithium-bearing ores. Recycling is also just so low-volume that if you did extract the lithium you wouldn't really have enough to be worth selling. Regardless, the clinker material is ecologically inert. Nickel and cobalt are the only hazardous materials in the battery. Everything else is extremely common in nature- lithium is present in every water supply since it's a natural component of salt. Carbon is obviously everywhere, even in elemental forms. Any rock you pick up almost anywhere in the world is overwhelmingly likely to be primarily made of silicon. Aluminum is similar. NB that all the clinker materials will be in oxide or hydroxide forms.
- mrfusion 8y agoAnother option is to simply repurpose old batteries to stationary storage applications. Even if it’s only holding a five percent charge, who cares if they’re just sitting in a building somewhere.
- snowwindwaves 8y agoBecause they take up space and space in a building isn't free. Nor is the equipment to use the batteries as storage
- JoeAltmaier 8y agoNor is the electricity lost due to heating the inefficient battery. Old batteries also get hot, as their cathode(?) breaks down
- hwillis 8y agoThis is incorrect; the cathode only breaks down during a fire or something catostrauphic. Li ion develops higher internal resistance due to SEI buildup, which is less plastic and causes voltage sag as ions migrate. However this effect is cubic (iirc, cant look it up on the throne) so at low draw its heavily reduced. What is low draw depends very heavily on the chemistry, but at <1 C most batteries are only a couple percent less efficient. Every other energy storage method including hydraulic is far less efficient.
- hwillis 8y agoYep! Old batteries tend to still hold a charge quite well- they become less efficient under the same load, which gives the impression that they lose capacity much faster than is actually the case. If you derate them they perform quite well- a battery may last 60% as long as it did originally, but when used more slowly it will hold more like 80% of its original capacity. In fact, battery degradation has in some cases been slower than battery innovation! Batteries have gotten better so quickly that the newer ones may have 50% more capacity even if the old ones didnt degrade much at all. Edit: its also complicated by the multitude of batteries and chemistries. Li ion is incredibly diverse compared to other battery families, and the various types can't be used together. Practically speaking you can only reuse batteries of a single chemistry and form factor, and the chemistry changes every few years or less. Its just not a stable enough industry for that yet.
- sschueller 8y agoJust FYI, electrek is consider very bullish on Tesla. A lot of their articles lean. Just like a lot of the short sellers sites lean the other way.
- Cshelton 8y agoOn the flip side about electrek though, they seem to have the articles first about any Tesla info. I follow Tesla closely as a current owner, and most news I hear about software changes, future Tesla stuff, etc comes out first from electrek. So thanks to the guy who runs it and stays on top of it!
- w8vY7ER 8y agoAgreed, deeply grateful for Fred's diligent reporting on these topics. Usually has the scoop first and is good about highlighting negative aspects as well without the institutional fire and brimstone everyone else comes with.
- compcoffee 8y ago>Just FYI, electrek is consider very bullish on Tesla. It's worse than that. The "analyst" is from Worm Capital. Every heard of them? Probably not. But their fund is 60% Tesla. Why is it that "shorts" are criticized for talking their book and spreading FUD, but the "longs" are not criticized for all the stock pumping? Why are Worm Capital and the YouTube guy getting factory tours?
- maratd 8y ago> Why are Worm Capital and the YouTube guy getting factory tours? Because they're helping the bottom line? That's Tesla's job. To help itself. Are you proposing they give tours to short sellers?
- JohnJamesRambo 8y agothat might actually be useful
- threeseed 8y agoI would take this with an even bigger grain of salt since Worm Capital who did the visit has Tesla as their biggest stock holding. And surely your judgement must be clouded if you think Tesla has the best in class self driving technology.
- hwillis 8y ago"Is creating" has different connotations from having it already. That said not much that has been gleaned about their model is terribly impressive, and rolling their own hardware isn't going to make up for that.
- threeseed 8y agoWe do know a few things though. (1) Navigant ranked them dead last compared to their competitors earlier this year. (2) They don't believe in LIDAR which almost everyone else is using to supplement the camera/radar based sensors. I trust the combination of Apple, Waymo, Baidu, GM etc to pick the best self driving architecture.
- maratd 8y ago> And surely your judgement must be clouded if you think Tesla has the best in class self driving technology. They have the best in class self driving technology that's actually in production. Until I can actually sit in one of Waymo's cars, it doesn't mean much.
- _Codemonkeyism 8y agoWaymo isn't pushing tech into peoples hands that is killing people.
- maratd 8y agoSure, because they have nothing to push.
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- rjplatte 8y agoThus reinforcing Tesla's dominance. Until other manufacturers can match Tesla's price/range combination, Tesla will continue to dominate the market.
- specialp 8y agoWe can perhaps say that when they are actually making batteries at $100/kWh. We could have said they were going to dominate in EV production in 2016 when they said they were going to manufacture 200k cars in the second half of 2017, and 500k cars by this year. So analysis and comparison of projections from a company that has a history of wildly underdelivering isn't sound.
- imglorp 8y agoIn absolute terms, they're delivering 8x more full electrics than the Bolt, the next leading full electric, and still more than the 2 leading plugin hybrids. The market will never be happy with winning, it has to be winning by the desired margin. https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
- foepys 8y agoIsn't Tesla still losing money on each produced car? If they are, they are just increasing their losses with higher production volume. At least the base Model 3 isn't profitable, which is why it isn't being sold at the moment.
- imglorp 8y agoMaybe, but if you want to change the world, is stock price the only metric? How profitable is Twitter?
- compcoffee 8y ago>Until other manufacturers can match Tesla's price/range combination I guess you're right, because the competitors are just starting to roll out now...
- mpg33 8y agoThat's still what $7500-$10K per Telsa though isn't it?
- hwillis 8y ago$5,000-$10,000, plus integration costs- this is on the cell level, not the pack level. Tesla's integration is somewhat more complex than others, although it has given them more performance. But that's a huge part of the car, and the majority of the drivetrain cost. The motor costs probably a few hundred. When you consider all the things it actually replaces -fuel and exhaust, starter and alternator, a number of ancillaries- it's really starting to close in on an internal combustion engine. Not to mention that that level of drivetrain is high end in terms of power output.
- avelis 8y agoYes more or less. It’s critical because now it is on cost parity with an ICE drivetrain. Once it goes below it across the industry ICE drivetrains for consumer cars is toast.
- josefresco 8y agoWhy is a battery alone being compared with an "ICE drivetrain" which consists of many, individual components? Also, drivetrain and powertrain are two distinct things, I believe you meant powertrain.
- hwillis 8y agoPowertrain is technically correct, since only the flywheel/torque converter/transmission/driveshaft (and occasionally the differential) are really replaced from a drivetrain. The battery has represented ~80% of an electric powertrain's cost, so it's a reasonable proxy for replacing most of the powertrain. Even parts that aren't fully replaced, like the heater core, A/C and radiator are made significantly cheaper. It's very much an estimate, but it isn't inaccurate. Recently it's becoming less representative. Drive stages (electronics) are getting more exotic and expensive as manufacturers recognize the value in them, and motors are probably going to continue using limited amounts of neodymium magnets. And of course, batteries have become far cheaper. Personally I can't wait- I want more focus to be on the motors and drivers, which are way more accessible from an aftermarket perspective. It takes tens or hundreds of millions to get into battery manufacturing, but only a few hundred thousand to get into making world-class motors or electronics. Crate engines for EVs are just waiting on the demand (and a friendly nod from manufacturers).
- SilasX 8y ago"Investor is bullish about company he invested in" is not news, let alone "hacker news".
- DenisM 8y agoOn the other hand we are having a fantastic discussion on battery chemistry and recycling courtesy of hwillis in this thread. I always upvote things that yield an interesting didcussion.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y agoWith that line of reasoning, no one should talk about the cost of any component in a Tesla because it's either made by Tesla or by an entity that is paid by Tesla. In other words, few things can be said if only independent people can talk about them.
- SilasX 8y agoThat doesn't follow from this line of reasoning. I objected to an article premised on a self-interested statement from someone who's inherently optimistic about Tesla. Neutral, grounded reporting about any profit-making company is always welcome.
- blakesterz 8y ago"That’s if “commodity prices remain stable”, but otherwise they came out of the tour confident that they will achieve the important price target by the end of the year." What are these things made from and where does that stuff come from? Was any of that part of the big tariffs that were recently announced?
- sandworm101 8y agoThey have parts made of metal. So, ya. They will feel the tariffs. Even if they aren't using steel, prices on all engineered metals (ie built to specific standards) will rise as those who can switch away from steel. But I doubt raw metals are a significant cost in something like a tesla battery. It is a heavily engineered product, not an I-beam for a bridge. The real costs should be in manufacturing and non-metal raw materials.
- hwillis 8y agoFor Tesla the cases are steel, but that's a tiny cost. The cost drivers are nickel, cobalt, and graphite in that order. Nickel stabilized lately but is still subject to fluctuations in demand- entirely at the whim of stainless steel, the main consumer. Cobalt is anyone's guess, but is usually fairly stable and batteries still aren't the largest consumer (IIRC, but it's very close). Graphite is pretty stable because >40% is synthetic. It's a somewhat nasty process that requires a lot of acids and tons of energy, but it's nothing special. Nickel is a worry. Cobalt is unlikely to be a concern for tariffs since it would probably help China to tax it. Graphite might be under threat too since it's made in both the US and China. Other materials like lithium or organics are unlikely to be taxed or are manufactured at large scale.
- syntaxing 8y agoAside from their cars, I really wished they released a low cost 1-2kWh powerwall. I would love to have a power bank without buying all the bulky AGM batteries and capable to charge with <400W of solar panel capacity for emergency purposes.
- dev_dull 8y agoDo you want it hooked up to the grid? Otherwise that’s fun DIY project with 18650 batteries.
- syntaxing 8y agoYeah, I saw on YouTube that some guy was trying to build their own power wall. Do you have suggestion for a good tutorial? The thing I like the most about the power wall is the power transition. The moment the power kicks out, the power wall kicks in.
- dev_dull 8y agoAgree! One of he better selling points especially over things like a genny. For that you’ll need a professional. It’s really dangerous (and illegal?) if your system backfeeds the grid.
- ant6n 8y agoSounds like an incredible time sink and a fire hazard, for not that much of a benefit. Sometimes it's just easier to go into a store and buy something.
- jacquesm 8y agoI know only very few investors that would be tech savvy enough to make that call, and I don't know any investors that will publicly talk down a company they have invested in. This is pretty much content free.
- hinkley 8y agoIn previous reports of delays in Tesla production I had assumed that the delays were in vehicle assembly. This article asserts that battery production was a major bottleneck, and that the provider of their equipment is getting them a version that’s three times as fast and cheaper to run. I wonder how much of this price point is just cheaper faster equipment?
- WhompingWindows 8y agoWhile shortage of Panasonic cells and larger batteries containing multiple cells has been a concern at times, you can't just look at the battery production itself. I believe many of the delays in production have been due to battery _pack_ production, whereby cells are organized into complex hierarchies in specific orientations (+/-, current flow controlled) to achieve greater heat dissipation and improve energy density. This workflow step is not on Panasonic but on Tesla, and I believe they struggled with model 3 pack shortages for months, though general vehicle assembly may have also been a bottleneck.
- hinkley 8y agoThey’re a little vague, but it stands to reason they were referring to the pack assembly machinery.
- cpncrunch 8y agoArticle is difficult to read. "now it’s about Worm Capital’s turn, but this time it was a tour of Gigafactory 1." Here is a better article: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/musk-says-tesla-can-get-li-ion-cell-prices-below-100kwh-this-year/525162/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/musk-says-tesla-can-get-li-... It appears it's old news, from June (and the above is from the horse's mouth, not an investor).