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Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. Howeve

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful". However once people start doing most of their driving in all-electric mode, that will cause many gas stations to go out of business (since they run on razor thin margins). That will then be the push to make the leap to all electric in the following generation. In other words, I fully expect plug-in hybrids to be the bridge to all electric.

chrisco255 8y ago
Why would gas pumps not be gradually replaced with charging points?
- greglindahl 8y ago
  Most people are going to charge at home (garage, parking lot, street charging point) or at work (garage, parking lot, street charging point.) That's not where gas stations are.
- dragonwriter 8y ago
  Because if you are driving a PHV all-electric, you are probably charging at home, gas is a long-term range extender. Sure, as all-electric displace PHVs, that rane extender role shifts to charging points, but the big drop in demand for out-of-network fueling/charging comes from basic commuting being met by in-home charging.
- gwbas1c 8y ago
  Because people will charge at their destinations or at home. Think of it this way: You go on a long trip and need to stop for gas somewhere along the trip. Instead, you just plug in at your destination. That saves you a stop.
  - jonknee 8y ago
    If you were going on a trip long enough that it requires a stop in an ICE vehicle you're going to have to stop in your electric vehicle. Maybe even stop twice.
    - mikeash 8y ago
      Depending on how full your gas tank is, a trip of 10 miles could need a stop.
- jonknee 8y ago
  Because they're incredibly slow and you'd need a giant facility to accommodate what even a tiny 4 pump gas station currently does? I live in Seattle and there are tons of Teslas, but the nearest Supercharger is way out in the suburbs at a mall so you can do something with all your waiting time.
  - mikeash 8y ago
    I think the number of spots you need is actually similar. A car will occupy a spot for much more time, but it will need it much less frequently since it’s only necessary for long trips. That’s why your nearest supercharger is out in the suburbs: it’s for travelers, not locals.
    - jonknee 8y ago
      We're going to need a ton more spots, it only works now because almost no one has an EV and those that do are self selected to people who can charge at home. Somewhat ironically, EVs currently work best when you live in the suburbs and commute into the city. If you live in the city you likely won't have a garage where you can charge. Even if you drive to work and your work has parking and your work parking has EV spots at best there will only be a handful.
      - mikeash 8y ago
        For sure we’ll need a ton more spots, but the total will be similar to the number of gas station spots. For city dwellers, we really need on-street charging. That’s totally feasible, but there’s a huge chicken-and-egg problem to overcome.
- Shivetya 8y ago
  Because charging points don't have the same environmental concerns as gas station fuel dispensers and storage meaning they can be anywhere. So why would you want to single purpose the land as most gas stations are. The convenience stores attached to most are designed to serve people in the time it takes to fuel a petrol vehicle which is five to six minutes max. So chargers can be at places that encourage longer stops and since there is no real environmental impact that means they can be placed about anywhere a parking space already is.
melling 8y ago
How much range do people need before there's no longer range anxiety? People used to complain about 200 miles not being enough then Tesla released 300 miles then they said that's not enough either.
- jdpedrie 8y ago
  Neither are enough. Until I can drive across the continent as conveniently as I could in the ICE car I have today, I'll be extremely reluctant to purchase an electric vehicle.
  - mikeash 8y ago
    Counterpoint: until I can drive around town as conveniently as I could in the EV, I won’t buy a gas car. (I won’t anyway, but....) People focus on the extra time spent charging on trips (which is real but not huge) and ignore the extra time spent filling up at the local gas station every week even when you’re not taking any trips.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- oliveshell 8y ago
  For me personally, 350-400 miles (in the worst case: with the A/C on full blast, up an incline, including frequent stopping and acceleration) would be a start. But it’s also about about refueling (i.e. charging). Until a spot at a supercharger is as easy to come by as a gas station wherever you go, it won’t be the same. Not to mention having to wait 30+ minutes to charge, which can add up on a road trip.
  - tjr225 8y ago
    What if there were "battery stations" with charged swappable, standardized batteries? You could do your own charging at home or at work otherwise.
    - 8y ago
macspoofing 8y ago
>However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. I disagree. I think hybrids are a dead-end. They don't help electric car adoption, rather they hinder it because they validate every criticism about electric cars. Part of the reason why Tesla got as big as it did is because it didn't feel the need to argue for electric cars on gasoline-car terms.
jfrankamp 8y ago
Another way to think about it is owning an electric as a primary vehicle (most trips are under 50 miles or whatever) and the gas car as as secondary, long range vehicle. This makes way more sense than hybrids for two car families. We own a Nissan Leaf and its definitely our primary vehicle, it gets 10x the miles/day as the gas car at a fraction of the maintenance cost. We pull the gas car out for the weekends or trips to Canada. The drive train on either vehicle is comprehendible, I dare you to look under the hood of a hybrid and say the same.
- beat 8y ago
  At which point just renting a gas vehicle for long trips starts sounding really good.
  - briandear 8y ago
    Except for the hassle of renting a vehicle. And, what do you do in a natural disaster?
    - learc83 8y ago
      100 miles is enough range to get out of the way of worst effects of most natural disasters, and plenty of people get by without a car at all.
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        100 miles would not be sufficient to get out of the path of Hurricane Florence currently on the US eastern seaboard (although Tesla has done of the honors of lifting any restrictions on their software range limited models, as well as providing free SuperCharging to get folks to safety [1]). [1] https://electrek.co/2018/09/12/tesla-releasing-more-battery-capacity-free-supercharging-hurricane-florence/ https://electrek.co/2018/09/12/tesla-releasing-more-battery-...
        learc83 8y ago
BrandonMarc 8y ago
For my part, I'm not anxious about range; price is the main issue. The car purchases over my lifetime have been $5000, $2500, $1, $4000, $11000, $8000, $12000 ... and I have never bought new. I do not see a viable electric vehicle for me. Tesla looks awesome, and I cannot find an affordable one near me. Hell, there are TWO (count 'em, 2) used Model-3's within 20 miles of me, and they're selling for $50,000. LOL and Model 3 was claimed as the "affordable" one. I make 6 figures, and look at my car-buying habits. * Model-3 is just not in my wheelhouse, and probably won't be for many, many years. I'd love to buy a quality electric, and I don't see it happening any time soon. Anyway, this is just one more data-point ... ... * and to anyone who suggests I change my habits, I'll reply: 401k is important to me, saving for my first house is important to me, saving for kids' college is important to me, and staying debt-free tops everything (aside from a mortgage someday).
- F_r_k 8y ago
  For Teslas, wait a bit, you'll see them coming in some years
  - BrandonMarc 8y ago
    That's what I'm hoping for. You may notice I mention "quality" electric car ... and from what I can see, Tesla is the only producer of quality electric cars, period.
    - dougmany 8y ago
      We bought a 2014 leaf last October for less than $10,000 after tax and registration. FWIW Quality was much higher than the 2006 Civic I had previously. It is a great car and cheaper to operate.
- ryandrake 8y ago
  Price anxiety and maintenance anxiety. I buy 2-3 year old cars and drive them for another 10 years. What is maintaining a 12 year old electric car going to cost? Nobody knows! When Tesla has been gone for 5 years, will a 10 year old model 3 still even boot up?
reaperducer 8y ago
due to range anxiety. It helps to be married. That way one spouse can have an electric vehicle for daily commuting or banging around town, and there's still the other spouse's gas-fueled car for longer trips.

chrisco255 8y ago

Why would gas pumps not be gradually replaced with charging points?

greglindahl 8y ago
Most people are going to charge at home (garage, parking lot, street charging point) or at work (garage, parking lot, street charging point.) That's not where gas stations are.
dragonwriter 8y ago
Because if you are driving a PHV all-electric, you are probably charging at home, gas is a long-term range extender. Sure, as all-electric displace PHVs, that rane extender role shifts to charging points, but the big drop in demand for out-of-network fueling/charging comes from basic commuting being met by in-home charging.
gwbas1c 8y ago
Because people will charge at their destinations or at home. Think of it this way: You go on a long trip and need to stop for gas somewhere along the trip. Instead, you just plug in at your destination. That saves you a stop.
- jonknee 8y ago
  If you were going on a trip long enough that it requires a stop in an ICE vehicle you're going to have to stop in your electric vehicle. Maybe even stop twice.
  - mikeash 8y ago
    Depending on how full your gas tank is, a trip of 10 miles could need a stop.
jonknee 8y ago
Because they're incredibly slow and you'd need a giant facility to accommodate what even a tiny 4 pump gas station currently does? I live in Seattle and there are tons of Teslas, but the nearest Supercharger is way out in the suburbs at a mall so you can do something with all your waiting time.
- mikeash 8y ago
  I think the number of spots you need is actually similar. A car will occupy a spot for much more time, but it will need it much less frequently since it’s only necessary for long trips. That’s why your nearest supercharger is out in the suburbs: it’s for travelers, not locals.
  - jonknee 8y ago
    We're going to need a ton more spots, it only works now because almost no one has an EV and those that do are self selected to people who can charge at home. Somewhat ironically, EVs currently work best when you live in the suburbs and commute into the city. If you live in the city you likely won't have a garage where you can charge. Even if you drive to work and your work has parking and your work parking has EV spots at best there will only be a handful.
    - mikeash 8y ago
      For sure we’ll need a ton more spots, but the total will be similar to the number of gas station spots. For city dwellers, we really need on-street charging. That’s totally feasible, but there’s a huge chicken-and-egg problem to overcome.
Shivetya 8y ago
Because charging points don't have the same environmental concerns as gas station fuel dispensers and storage meaning they can be anywhere. So why would you want to single purpose the land as most gas stations are. The convenience stores attached to most are designed to serve people in the time it takes to fuel a petrol vehicle which is five to six minutes max. So chargers can be at places that encourage longer stops and since there is no real environmental impact that means they can be placed about anywhere a parking space already is.

melling 8y ago

How much range do people need before there's no longer range anxiety? People used to complain about 200 miles not being enough then Tesla released 300 miles then they said that's not enough either.

jdpedrie 8y ago
Neither are enough. Until I can drive across the continent as conveniently as I could in the ICE car I have today, I'll be extremely reluctant to purchase an electric vehicle.
- mikeash 8y ago
  Counterpoint: until I can drive around town as conveniently as I could in the EV, I won’t buy a gas car. (I won’t anyway, but....) People focus on the extra time spent charging on trips (which is real but not huge) and ignore the extra time spent filling up at the local gas station every week even when you’re not taking any trips.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
oliveshell 8y ago
For me personally, 350-400 miles (in the worst case: with the A/C on full blast, up an incline, including frequent stopping and acceleration) would be a start. But it’s also about about refueling (i.e. charging). Until a spot at a supercharger is as easy to come by as a gas station wherever you go, it won’t be the same. Not to mention having to wait 30+ minutes to charge, which can add up on a road trip.
- tjr225 8y ago
  What if there were "battery stations" with charged swappable, standardized batteries? You could do your own charging at home or at work otherwise.
  - 8y ago

macspoofing 8y ago

>However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. I disagree. I think hybrids are a dead-end. They don't help electric car adoption, rather they hinder it because they validate every criticism about electric cars. Part of the reason why Tesla got as big as it did is because it didn't feel the need to argue for electric cars on gasoline-car terms.

jfrankamp 8y ago

Another way to think about it is owning an electric as a primary vehicle (most trips are under 50 miles or whatever) and the gas car as as secondary, long range vehicle. This makes way more sense than hybrids for two car families. We own a Nissan Leaf and its definitely our primary vehicle, it gets 10x the miles/day as the gas car at a fraction of the maintenance cost. We pull the gas car out for the weekends or trips to Canada. The drive train on either vehicle is comprehendible, I dare you to look under the hood of a hybrid and say the same.

beat 8y ago
At which point just renting a gas vehicle for long trips starts sounding really good.
- briandear 8y ago
  Except for the hassle of renting a vehicle. And, what do you do in a natural disaster?
  - learc83 8y ago
    100 miles is enough range to get out of the way of worst effects of most natural disasters, and plenty of people get by without a car at all.
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      100 miles would not be sufficient to get out of the path of Hurricane Florence currently on the US eastern seaboard (although Tesla has done of the honors of lifting any restrictions on their software range limited models, as well as providing free SuperCharging to get folks to safety [1]). [1] https://electrek.co/2018/09/12/tesla-releasing-more-battery-capacity-free-supercharging-hurricane-florence/ https://electrek.co/2018/09/12/tesla-releasing-more-battery-...
      - learc83 8y ago

BrandonMarc 8y ago

For my part, I'm not anxious about range; price is the main issue. The car purchases over my lifetime have been $5000, $2500, $1, $4000, $11000, $8000, $12000 ... and I have never bought new. I do not see a viable electric vehicle for me. Tesla looks awesome, and I cannot find an affordable one near me. Hell, there are TWO (count 'em, 2) used Model-3's within 20 miles of me, and they're selling for $50,000. LOL and Model 3 was claimed as the "affordable" one. I make 6 figures, and look at my car-buying habits. * Model-3 is just not in my wheelhouse, and probably won't be for many, many years. I'd love to buy a quality electric, and I don't see it happening any time soon. Anyway, this is just one more data-point ... ... * and to anyone who suggests I change my habits, I'll reply: 401k is important to me, saving for my first house is important to me, saving for kids' college is important to me, and staying debt-free tops everything (aside from a mortgage someday).

F_r_k 8y ago
For Teslas, wait a bit, you'll see them coming in some years
- BrandonMarc 8y ago
  That's what I'm hoping for. You may notice I mention "quality" electric car ... and from what I can see, Tesla is the only producer of quality electric cars, period.
  - dougmany 8y ago
    We bought a 2014 leaf last October for less than $10,000 after tax and registration. FWIW Quality was much higher than the 2006 Civic I had previously. It is a great car and cheaper to operate.
ryandrake 8y ago
Price anxiety and maintenance anxiety. I buy 2-3 year old cars and drive them for another 10 years. What is maintaining a 12 year old electric car going to cost? Nobody knows! When Tesla has been gone for 5 years, will a 10 year old model 3 still even boot up?

reaperducer 8y ago

due to range anxiety. It helps to be married. That way one spouse can have an electric vehicle for daily commuting or banging around town, and there's still the other spouse's gas-fueled car for longer trips.