9 ms·

Comparing the NYT op-ed to tweets from cabinet members

59 points by jpdus 8y ago

chlorophyll 8y ago
So... it's Mike Pence or the Donald himself?
- SN76477 8y ago
  I smell a plot twist!
- craftyguy 8y ago
  Pence would literally have the most to gain from removing El Cheeto from office.
- almostApatriot1 8y ago
  Pence through a fall guy. Definitely.
mjevans 8y ago
It's interesting to show the VP and 45, but as their speeches and public messages are probably mostly written BY the senior staff the correlation is highly suspect. Also, just because you can do something doesn't mean you should.
- mc32 8y ago
  While I don’t think Trump did it, he has pulled stunts somewhat similar to this in the past. It would be intersting if hr did. [To the objection] Someone else could have authored it and had this official to the “op ed writing” though it’s unlikely, it’s not impossible.
  - kkwteh 8y ago
    The NYTimes stated just above the anonymous opinion that they know who the official is, so I think it's safe to say that it wasn't written by Trump.
  - smsm42 8y ago
    > he has pulled stunts somewhat similar to this in the past Like what? Could you name several instances of Trump publishing an article in a major newspaper under false name criticizing himself?
    - mc32 8y ago
      There are a few reported instances, but you can search. Here is one: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m10_rOHalIM https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m10_rOHalIM
      - smsm42 8y ago
        OK, he did pretend to be his own publicist, but he didn't criticize himself, on the contrary - he did that to praise himself in third person.
- heartbreak 8y ago
  Why should we not attempt to unmask the author? Is there an ethical argument against it?
  - mc32 8y ago
    People have tried to unmask Satoshi in the past. So probably not much of an issue to many.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - rococode 8y ago
    A person tries to anonymously reassure the public while putting their career at risk if they are found out, and the response to their good intentions is to try to out them and destroy their career as a result? I feel that's a little messed up, especially when NYTimes states they are aware of the identity of the person so it's not like the validity of the article is suspect. Regardless of how you might feel about everyone in the administration, it'd certainly be a clear warning to people about the risk of making such statements in the interest of transparency, and you can be sure we'd never see one ever again, from any politicians on any side of the political spectrum. For the sake of discussion, what ethical arguments do you think there are for finding out who wrote this? Let's assume you aren't in the Trump camp, since it'd be reasonable to say that if you support Trump then you might be more motivated to find out who it is, and there's nothing wrong with that I suppose.
    - vivekd 8y ago
      Even if a person doesn't support Trump, actively interfering with and sabotaging an elected official who holds the highest executive office in the country seems like a bad thing to do. If a person doesn't like the president, the proper recourse is public criticism working to ensure he doesn't get re-elected and if possible impeachment . . . the proper recourse is never actively sabotaging the president of the United States. There may be exceptional circumstances where the president is violating the constitution, however, we still have a functional supreme court so that exception isn't raised in this circumstance.
simonsarris 8y ago
No Kellyanne Conway as an option? That was my bet. Pence uses the word "lodestar," Mattis loves to say "first principles." The ending (reach across aisle) reads a lot like McCain speak. ...Of course the 42D Chess move is to make it look like anyone near Trump could have written it. It's also possible it was penned by two or three people, especially if it was a group that formed a pact to save their jobs/face as un-elected bureaucrats, as a hedge if the midterms go poorly and they still want D.C. jobs, etc.
jamesdmiller 8y ago
It might have been written by an employee of the New York Times.
- mcphage 8y ago
  > It might have been written by an employee of the New York Times. Of all the unlikely options being discussed, this one is absolutely the most unlikely.
- acct1771 8y ago
  To what end?
  - codeiscodeman 8y ago
    REEEEE. Impeaches!
save_ferris 8y ago
I'm surprised by this result, given the fact that the op-ed is compared to tweets and DJT turns out to be one of more highly correlated members of the group. Based on what I've seen posted on his Twitter account in the last two years and the way he's handled himself in public since taking office, it's really hard to see how this op-ed came from him personally.
- Arn_Thor 8y ago
  This didn't measure his personal twitter but the POTUS account, which is manned by White House staffers. Trump's got his personal account on his phone and uses that for his rants and raves
cossovich 8y ago
Points to a senior speech-writer. Someone who has written speeches for both Pence and POTUS - but probably more speeches for Pence... might be an op-ed directed by Mattis but my money is on the speech-writer going rogue.
nautilus12 8y ago
So its the person that writes Mike Pence's tweets? Not sure a term frequency analysis is enough to conclude much.
jovas 8y ago
The high score of VP and POTUS is surely reflective of their speech writers... isn't this backed up by the fact that VP has .8 and mike_pence has -.05? Regardless, if throw out POTUS and VP, we are left with Pompeo and Ross as the two highest.
- d--b 8y ago
  Yes, but Trump’s tweets are clearly not ghost-written!
mcphage 8y ago
Does this filter out retweets, and/or the text of retweets? It would be useful to see the raw data it's built from—the code specifies a 'data/mat.rds' file, but there's no data directory in the repository, and I don't have R installed / any familiarity with it to really follow details about the code.
d--b 8y ago
The NYT knows better. They know that you can unmask someone by finding correlations in style. They most likely edited the content heavily to avoid this. Besides, correlations with tweets probably wouldn’t mean much as tweets are not written the same way as regular text and not by the same person anyway.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- harry8 8y ago
  You're assuming the NYT doesn't want the person to be unmasked. "Sure we'll publish it anonymously Sir." While mumbling to themselves it won't work out how you think it will, though, but we will do it just as we said and we won't leak it either.
- koolba 8y ago
  > The NYT knows better. While I know that one word quips are verboten here I can’t resist ... ha!
- Redoubts 8y ago
  A member of the editorial board said that they wouldn’t do that with the Op Ed https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?mt=2&i=1000419221554 https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?m... Question asked at around 17:00
- ry4n413 8y ago
  Makes you wonder if this led them to plant decoy phrases/words.
davidw 8y ago
Very relevant: https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1037512349488492546?s=19 https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1037512349488492546...
guelo 8y ago
A lot of speculation on Twitter is focused on the word lodestar which has previously been used by Pence. https://twitter.com/jamescdownie/status/1037441482469335043 https://twitter.com/jamescdownie/status/1037441482469335043
- dawhizkid 8y ago
  Highly doubt Pence had the time to pen this himself, and it would seem way too risky to involve his speechwriter to write this on his behalf. I'm guessing the author was extremely careful to not expose themselves through their writing style and threw this in there to distract.
btown 8y ago
Flagging this because doxxing is not something this site should promote, no matter how high-profile the post, nor how politicized the content. No matter how interesting the techniques used, this thread is potentially as dangerous as Reddit's witch hunt for the Boston bomber. [0] [0] https://www.reddit.com/r/MuseumOfReddit/comments/1iv343/the_boston_bombing_debacle/ https://www.reddit.com/r/MuseumOfReddit/comments/1iv343/the_...
- nautilus12 8y ago
  Not trying to be pedantic with a sad situation but hadn't Sunil Tripathi already been missing for a month and was already dead when reddit fingered him as the bomber? This makes it sound like Reddit was the cause of his death. Granted, it could have been which is why doxxing should be avoided, but I still dont think this is a good example. It should be careful to distinguish between the harm caused to his family and the cause of his death which I dont think was reddit/4chan. I am a bit confused because this says he dissapeared on the 16th, but other sources say he had been missing for a month prior.
closed 8y ago
Dave Robinson has a nice blog post using a similar analysis: http://varianceexplained.org/r/op-ed-text-analysis/ http://varianceexplained.org/r/op-ed-text-analysis/
codeiscodeman 8y ago
Anonymous sources suck. Speak truth to power if you want, put your name on it. Otherwise do your damn job.
- grasshopperpurp 8y ago
  Exactly right, and the NYT did a great job of making Trump's points about the media for him by publishing this anonymously. To be clear, I find his attacks on the media horrifying, and it's one of the things that's so disgusting about this NYT op-ed. https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-anonymous-new-york-times-op-ed-and-the-trumpian-corruption-of-language-and-the-media?mbid=nl_Daily%20090618&CNDID=54169689&utm_source=Silverpop&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20090618&utm_content=&spMailingID=14203508&spUserID=Mjc4ODQwOTY3NDQ0S0&spJobID=1480491643&spReportId=MTQ4MDQ5MTY0MwS2 https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-anonymous-...

59 points by jpdus 8y ago

chlorophyll 8y ago

So... it's Mike Pence or the Donald himself?

SN76477 8y ago
I smell a plot twist!
craftyguy 8y ago
Pence would literally have the most to gain from removing El Cheeto from office.
almostApatriot1 8y ago
Pence through a fall guy. Definitely.

mjevans 8y ago

It's interesting to show the VP and 45, but as their speeches and public messages are probably mostly written BY the senior staff the correlation is highly suspect. Also, just because you can do something doesn't mean you should.

mc32 8y ago
While I don’t think Trump did it, he has pulled stunts somewhat similar to this in the past. It would be intersting if hr did. [To the objection] Someone else could have authored it and had this official to the “op ed writing” though it’s unlikely, it’s not impossible.
- kkwteh 8y ago
  The NYTimes stated just above the anonymous opinion that they know who the official is, so I think it's safe to say that it wasn't written by Trump.
- smsm42 8y ago
  > he has pulled stunts somewhat similar to this in the past Like what? Could you name several instances of Trump publishing an article in a major newspaper under false name criticizing himself?
  - mc32 8y ago
    There are a few reported instances, but you can search. Here is one: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m10_rOHalIM https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m10_rOHalIM
    - smsm42 8y ago
      OK, he did pretend to be his own publicist, but he didn't criticize himself, on the contrary - he did that to praise himself in third person.
heartbreak 8y ago
Why should we not attempt to unmask the author? Is there an ethical argument against it?
- mc32 8y ago
  People have tried to unmask Satoshi in the past. So probably not much of an issue to many.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- rococode 8y ago
  A person tries to anonymously reassure the public while putting their career at risk if they are found out, and the response to their good intentions is to try to out them and destroy their career as a result? I feel that's a little messed up, especially when NYTimes states they are aware of the identity of the person so it's not like the validity of the article is suspect. Regardless of how you might feel about everyone in the administration, it'd certainly be a clear warning to people about the risk of making such statements in the interest of transparency, and you can be sure we'd never see one ever again, from any politicians on any side of the political spectrum. For the sake of discussion, what ethical arguments do you think there are for finding out who wrote this? Let's assume you aren't in the Trump camp, since it'd be reasonable to say that if you support Trump then you might be more motivated to find out who it is, and there's nothing wrong with that I suppose.
  - vivekd 8y ago
    Even if a person doesn't support Trump, actively interfering with and sabotaging an elected official who holds the highest executive office in the country seems like a bad thing to do. If a person doesn't like the president, the proper recourse is public criticism working to ensure he doesn't get re-elected and if possible impeachment . . . the proper recourse is never actively sabotaging the president of the United States. There may be exceptional circumstances where the president is violating the constitution, however, we still have a functional supreme court so that exception isn't raised in this circumstance.

simonsarris 8y ago

No Kellyanne Conway as an option? That was my bet. Pence uses the word "lodestar," Mattis loves to say "first principles." The ending (reach across aisle) reads a lot like McCain speak. ...Of course the 42D Chess move is to make it look like anyone near Trump could have written it. It's also possible it was penned by two or three people, especially if it was a group that formed a pact to save their jobs/face as un-elected bureaucrats, as a hedge if the midterms go poorly and they still want D.C. jobs, etc.

jamesdmiller 8y ago

It might have been written by an employee of the New York Times.

mcphage 8y ago
> It might have been written by an employee of the New York Times. Of all the unlikely options being discussed, this one is absolutely the most unlikely.
acct1771 8y ago
To what end?
- codeiscodeman 8y ago
  REEEEE. Impeaches!

save_ferris 8y ago

I'm surprised by this result, given the fact that the op-ed is compared to tweets and DJT turns out to be one of more highly correlated members of the group. Based on what I've seen posted on his Twitter account in the last two years and the way he's handled himself in public since taking office, it's really hard to see how this op-ed came from him personally.

Arn_Thor 8y ago
This didn't measure his personal twitter but the POTUS account, which is manned by White House staffers. Trump's got his personal account on his phone and uses that for his rants and raves

cossovich 8y ago

Points to a senior speech-writer. Someone who has written speeches for both Pence and POTUS - but probably more speeches for Pence... might be an op-ed directed by Mattis but my money is on the speech-writer going rogue.

nautilus12 8y ago

So its the person that writes Mike Pence's tweets? Not sure a term frequency analysis is enough to conclude much.

jovas 8y ago

The high score of VP and POTUS is surely reflective of their speech writers... isn't this backed up by the fact that VP has .8 and mike_pence has -.05? Regardless, if throw out POTUS and VP, we are left with Pompeo and Ross as the two highest.

d--b 8y ago
Yes, but Trump’s tweets are clearly not ghost-written!

mcphage 8y ago

Does this filter out retweets, and/or the text of retweets? It would be useful to see the raw data it's built from—the code specifies a 'data/mat.rds' file, but there's no data directory in the repository, and I don't have R installed / any familiarity with it to really follow details about the code.

d--b 8y ago

The NYT knows better. They know that you can unmask someone by finding correlations in style. They most likely edited the content heavily to avoid this. Besides, correlations with tweets probably wouldn’t mean much as tweets are not written the same way as regular text and not by the same person anyway.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
harry8 8y ago
You're assuming the NYT doesn't want the person to be unmasked. "Sure we'll publish it anonymously Sir." While mumbling to themselves it won't work out how you think it will, though, but we will do it just as we said and we won't leak it either.
koolba 8y ago
> The NYT knows better. While I know that one word quips are verboten here I can’t resist ... ha!
Redoubts 8y ago
A member of the editorial board said that they wouldn’t do that with the Op Ed https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?mt=2&i=1000419221554 https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?m... Question asked at around 17:00
ry4n413 8y ago
Makes you wonder if this led them to plant decoy phrases/words.

davidw 8y ago

Very relevant: https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1037512349488492546?s=19 https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1037512349488492546...

guelo 8y ago

A lot of speculation on Twitter is focused on the word lodestar which has previously been used by Pence. https://twitter.com/jamescdownie/status/1037441482469335043 https://twitter.com/jamescdownie/status/1037441482469335043

dawhizkid 8y ago
Highly doubt Pence had the time to pen this himself, and it would seem way too risky to involve his speechwriter to write this on his behalf. I'm guessing the author was extremely careful to not expose themselves through their writing style and threw this in there to distract.

btown 8y ago

Flagging this because doxxing is not something this site should promote, no matter how high-profile the post, nor how politicized the content. No matter how interesting the techniques used, this thread is potentially as dangerous as Reddit's witch hunt for the Boston bomber. [0] [0] https://www.reddit.com/r/MuseumOfReddit/comments/1iv343/the_boston_bombing_debacle/ https://www.reddit.com/r/MuseumOfReddit/comments/1iv343/the_...

nautilus12 8y ago
Not trying to be pedantic with a sad situation but hadn't Sunil Tripathi already been missing for a month and was already dead when reddit fingered him as the bomber? This makes it sound like Reddit was the cause of his death. Granted, it could have been which is why doxxing should be avoided, but I still dont think this is a good example. It should be careful to distinguish between the harm caused to his family and the cause of his death which I dont think was reddit/4chan. I am a bit confused because this says he dissapeared on the 16th, but other sources say he had been missing for a month prior.

closed 8y ago

Dave Robinson has a nice blog post using a similar analysis: http://varianceexplained.org/r/op-ed-text-analysis/ http://varianceexplained.org/r/op-ed-text-analysis/

codeiscodeman 8y ago

Anonymous sources suck. Speak truth to power if you want, put your name on it. Otherwise do your damn job.

grasshopperpurp 8y ago
Exactly right, and the NYT did a great job of making Trump's points about the media for him by publishing this anonymously. To be clear, I find his attacks on the media horrifying, and it's one of the things that's so disgusting about this NYT op-ed. https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-anonymous-new-york-times-op-ed-and-the-trumpian-corruption-of-language-and-the-media?mbid=nl_Daily%20090618&CNDID=54169689&utm_source=Silverpop&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20090618&utm_content=&spMailingID=14203508&spUserID=Mjc4ODQwOTY3NDQ0S0&spJobID=1480491643&spReportId=MTQ4MDQ5MTY0MwS2 https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-anonymous-...