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But, he added, “if you have anyone who can do a better job, please let me know. They can have the job. Is there someone who can do the job better? They can have
by tomhoward 8y ago
But, he added, “if you have anyone who can do a better job, please let me know. They can have the job. Is there someone who can do the job better? They can have the reins right now.”
I think this hits at the crux of the issue around the performance/behaviour of Musk and other leaders of hugely ambitious companies.
And I think it highlights the importance of thinking about what kinds of people it will take to lead the next generation of such companies, and how we can identify and develop them.
I've never been any kind of Musk fanboy, and like most people I've looked on at his recent behaviour with some combination of bemusement and astonishment.
But when I see the hate and vitriol heaped on him, I'm compelled to wonder just what kind of alternative universe people are wishing for.
Do we actually want Tesla and SpaceX to fail?
Would we rather that Musk had just never founded Tesla and SpaceX, that the world didn't have any companies doing what those companies are trying to do, and that we were left to be content with the previous status quo in the automotive and space industries?
If not, then it would surely be better for the conversation to be less about how crazy or unstable or reckless Musk is, and more about how he and other leaders of today and of the future can pursue their ambitious goals, but to do so in a way that is responsible and balanced.
The alternative is not some as-yet-unknown-person-other-than-Musk doing the same thing but doing it better.
The number of people who are capable of building and running companies like these is vanishingly small and they will inevitably have extreme personality traits - some positive and some negative.
My concern is not for Musk's feelings, but for the way society goes about choosing, developing and critiquing the next generation of ambitious leaders, of whom we'll need plenty more if the world's increasingly complex problems are to be solved.
I should add that this applies whether we're talking about corporate leaders or political/community leaders.
- Fnoord 8y agoIts easy to say that because the chance of it happening is slim, and it allows for him to bail out if that's occurring short-term. For me, Musk's major failure was with the children who were lost in a cave and his pedophile tweet. Everyone has flaws and makes mistakes, but that mistake showed me how flawed his personality is. It was classic narcissism behaviour, right from textbook.
- hhjinks 8y agoNarcissists gravitating to positions of importance is an age old truism. Very few people are cut out for the kind of work Musk and people like him do, so I am inclined to be utilitarian in cases like this. Musk might be an asswipe, but his initiatives could have a major positive impact on the future of humanity, so I'll let him slide for the time being.
- lolive 8y agoHis apologies tweet is indeed quite good. And shows that he is learning everyday:"His actions against me do not justify my actions against him, and for that I apologise". Cf https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44870303 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44870303 for the details. [I let you decide if this is pure PR, or real apologies.]
- bjl 8y agoThat tweet was a classic non-apology. He tried to shift as much of the blame as possible for his actions onto the British ex-pat; I can't understand how people think that shows genuine remorse.
- thaumaturgy 8y agoYou're aware that one of the leads of the Thai rescue operation personally had an email with Musk asking him to continue working on the sub concept "in as timely a manner as feasible"? (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dhv9BppUwAArP8X.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dhv9BppUwAArP8X.jpg) Further, Musk didn't get involved until asked to do so, deferred to other experts, and praised the efforts of everyone else involved: https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-full-story-behind-Elon-Musks-involvement-with-the-Thai-cave-rescue-effort https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-full-story-behind-Elon-Musks... Clearly narcissistic behavior. I think there are very few among us that could juggle the responsibilities he's got and keep up the schedule he's got and not get tilted now and again. It's part of being human, which seems to be lost on a lot of people today. It's also why a schedule like that is a really bad idea, for anyone, and why one of the most productive things an ambitious person can do is build a good team.
- CJefferson 8y agoI want to live in a universe where you at least apologise for calling someone a pedo, or yes, you get kicked out.
- meowface 8y agoIt doesn't absolve him of such an absurd, spiteful, and malicious action, but he did apologize: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1019472152796381185?s=09 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1019472152796381185?s=09
- CJefferson 8y agoThanks, I will admit I didn't see that. It is quite well hidden (I follow Elon, and don't read all of his replies).
- darkerside 8y agoI have to assume some facetiousness here, but you are literally advocating not just against freedom of speech, but in favor of forcing your desired speech onto others. Some might perceive that as evil.
- lazysheepherd 8y agoThis. People apparently have a little self reflection, if at all. Let's get something straight: every person is a piece of shit, in some ways, granted some a bit more and some a bit less. Your project manager is a piece of shit in some ways, the new intern is, in her ways, your parents are, like it or not, in their own little ways. And finally you are a piece of shit, in your own distinct ways. But of all the pieces of shit we have talked about, none of them are creating companies which can vertically land 70m by 3.7m rocket boosters from orbit. Compared to utility of Musk's initiatives to the society, he is actually a pretty nice person. Heck he is okay even in normal standards. Please consider the contents of both scales and judge responsibly.
- SmellyGeekBoy 8y agoIndeed. Rocket technology itself is all derived from work done by the Nazis. As far as pieces of shit go these guys are pretty much top of the list. I'd rather have pieces of shit like Musk working on this technology, if I'm honest.
- oblio 8y agoThat's an awfully cynical perspective. I have personally met and know several people who I would in no way classify as being "in some way, pieces of shit". I feel shame when I meet them, but they do exist. And the rest of us shouldn't get a pass because we suck.
- simion314 8y agoI would really liked for Tesla and Space X to keep the hype down, then we could have discussed here forever technical stuff and not debate the hyped PR stunts.
- speedplane 8y agoIf they didn’t have hype, they wouldn’t be funded and they wouldn’t get off the ground. Hype is now an unfortunate requirement of any successful company.
- piker 8y ago"No bucks, no Buck Rogers", as it goes.
- simion314 8y agoBut the big disadvantage is when the hype will work against you, there are many examples like the No Man Sky game that was a decent game but because of the hype it will be forever remembered on how not to hype the product, in the present the game has the promissed features but very few will take a look at it. I understand that a company wants good PR, but I think you need to keep it real, like if a dude posts a video of Tesla self driving on some roads instead of Musk sharing it they can not do it or share but put a include the message that you mustk keep your hand on the wheel and pay attention. The reality is that now a Tesla has a non zero chance of driving you into a large object and killing you, when this happens your public image suffers when you promised autopilot but if you instead market this as a drive assistant that collects and learns how to drive and in future will become autopilot then the backlash will not affect you. I know that in small print and the big TOS this things are very clear but the PR and social media activity of Tesla and Musk contradict those terms.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- speedplane 8y agoThe balance between making promises and delivering on them is always and difficult to navigate. Today, society leans more towards making promises than delivering. It used to be different, and maybe one day it will be again.
- puranjay 8y agoI've long resigned to the fact that there will always be ambitious assholes in the world. The best we can hope for is to corral the assholes in the right space. An asshole leading a tech/space company is far better than an asshole leading an oil company or running a country.
- kaolti 8y agoWeird how you can judge someone's character based on a few tweets.
- ceejayoz 8y agoCalling someone a pedo because you don't like something they said is, at the very least, an assholeish thing to do.
- taneq 8y agoThe article did suggest that some of his weird behaviour might have been a side effect of using Ambien to sleep.
- sokoloff 8y agoSanofi's tweet reference the Rosanne situation seems relevant: https://twitter.com/sanofius/status/1001824999496404992?lang=en https://twitter.com/sanofius/status/1001824999496404992?lang...
- gluelogic 8y agoWhen people report driving cars, having sex, cooking entire meals and then eating them, and various other strange behavior while under the influence of Ambien, saying "racism isn't a side effect of Ambien" is a snarky and asinine tweet. It's the kind of cheap shot a writer for a late night talk show would write.
- mmirate 8y ago
- jerkstate 8y agoOn one hand, fuck the short seller bad news pushers. On the other hand, there are rules, Walter. Like you say, there's nobody like him, nobody effectively pursuing the same goals, and we truly do need him, so I hope he gets out of this relatively unscathed. On the other hand, you can't just lie about material stuff like this and be trusted to lead a company.
- batteryhorse 8y agoThis is bowling?
- _pmf_ 8y agoSay what you want about the tenets of Musk, Dude, at least it's an ethos.
- aaronbrethorst 8y agoA martyrdom complex isn't useful for anyone. Especially for Elon.
- icc97 8y ago> But when I see the hate and vitriol heaped on him, I'm compelled to wonder just what alternative universe people are hoping for. > Do we actually want Tesla and SpaceX to fail? This is an issue for anyone trying to change things, haters hate anyone successful and do just want them to fail. Elon does also though have a ton of fans (of which I'm one) so he does get the benefits too. But the haters don't seem to bother him, it's just the short sellers who could bankrupt Tesla. But that's their job. Also though this stress seems to be more about Tesla than SpaceX which is still private and plus it seems that Gwen Shotwell is able to take a lot of the decisions there.
- dilyevsky 8y ago> But the haters don't seem to bother him uh... yeah, sure. > it's just the short sellers who could bankrupt Tesla. But that's their job. that's not how this works.
- pzone 8y ago> It's just the short sellers who could bankrupt Tesla. But that's their job. Let's be clear that the thing that the only thing that could actually cause Tesla to go bankrupt would be failing to produce and deliver products as promised. Short sellers, at most, may speed up the clock a bit.
- dantheman 8y agoMost companies in their early days can easily fail -- the more ambitious they are the more likely they are on the edge. Short sellers are part of the market - I completely agree. But when you have made these giant bets, then you are actively trying to make them fail - stop further investment, dissuade customers, promote disinformation, etc. When trying to do something new and difficult - the status quo can easily throw rocks; and it takes 10x the effort clear up bullshit than to generate it.
- emedih42 8y ago> Do we actually want Tesla and SpaceX to fail? Defenitely! I do not think it is good for the world to have even more concentration of economic power in the hands of the US. I hope EVs succeed, and that private space companies start venturing to space in earnest. I just hope that other economic blocks are able to rip the rewards - ideally developing countries, including China and Russia. We already have a terrible situation with most internet companies being american. Economic power is extremely schewed.
- Nasrudith 8y agoThe kleptocratic oligarchy and the defacto Xi Dynasty of the empire are the ones you would choose instead? The US has its flaws and sins, serious and worryingly worsening ones but those two are not better hands without some serious reforms. Not to mention it is seriously flawed thinking on several levels - what is preventing the world from competing with those companies? It isn't the presence in the US proving viability and their failure would not encourage development in "better" places, the opposite in fact. If they want it they'll have to compete. Not everybody can do so right now but breaking other people's legs doesn't make you run faster.
- skrebbel 8y agoThere's a hidden false dichotomy there: That Tesla and Space X couldn't exist / succeed without Musk working his employees and himself into a burnout. I'm not sure that that is true. The same Musk with the same employees could've perfectly well done these companies at a sane pace - maybe even without losing speed in the grand scheme of things given that less stuff would've gone wrong.
- close04 8y ago> Do we actually want Tesla and SpaceX to fail? Is their success hanging on Musk calling someone a pedo? Because much of that hate came from unwarranted stuff like this.
- skrebbel 8y agoI think you're replying to the wrong post.
- close04 8y agoYou are completely right, it's for the post just above but clicked the wrong reply button.
- mft_ 8y agoJust not true. I've been following the subjects for years, and there's been a long-term swing against him, with articles critical (particularly) Tesla and also Musk personally. Him doing stupid things (arguably getting involved in the Thai cave situation at all, let alone calling the guy rude names) has added more fuel to the fire recently, but it was definitely a fire that was already burning strongly.
- close04 8y agoLook, high visibility people will always get lots of "unconditional" love or hate regardless of reality. But if you take away that "known" quantity what you're left with are the people that decide how to feel based on the facts, and the facts change. A reasonable person might have liked Musk until this flurry of misplaced opinions, that were better kept for himself. After this they may have liked him less or not at all. But have you seen many articles on the subject of how even when you approach criticizing Musk in a perfectly reasonable way supported by evidence you're all but guaranteed to get a vitriolic reaction from rabid fans, downvotes, insults, threats, get your comments deleted, etc.? In real life (not a bubble where you only get the news that support your views) there's actually a lot less criticism for Musk than any other CEO in his position gets. Especially since both himself and Tesla have been involved in plenty of polarizing situations bordering a scandal. He's still a media darling not because he doesn't deserve criticism but because criticizing him is a PR nightmare and most publications would rather avoid it. Or at the very least they do it "softly" and let it die out quickly. Example: If any other company (think Uber) charged you 6000E for a promise that wasn't fulfilled even years later and that even killed some people they would be nailed to the cross. Tesla is praised for the very same. Until a few months ago every Tesla website had the Autopilot description as "Fully self driving, safer than a human driver". Now, in civilized countries at least, they are forced to use more generic language like "most", "potential for", "in our opinion". How many articles tackled this? And how many tackled his Thai cave PR stunt?
- matrixagent 8y ago"and they will inevitably have extreme personality traits" – I find that a pretty bold claim and don't believe it to be true. And I'd much rather settle Mars a few hundred years later if that in turn means that Mars will be settled by not-so-big-assholes than if it happened sooner.
- davej 8y ago> And I'd much rather settle Mars a few hundred years later if that in turn means that Mars will be settled by not-so-big-assholes than if it happened sooner. I haven't seen a lot of evidence to suggest that Musk is an asshole. He deeply cares about what he is doing but he also seems to care about people. He is sometimes impulsive and perhaps volatile when he's running low on sleep. I have never heard of him subjecting others to something he would not subject onto himself. Even if he is a complete asshole. If he advanced the advent of electric cars and space travel by a hundred years then I'd take it.
- practice9 8y ago> He deeply cares about what he is doing but he also seems to care about people. He is sometimes impulsive and perhaps volatile when he's running low on sleep. I think he is just annoyed by bullshit, human stupidity & bureaucracy. I mean who wouldn't... People are too sensitive & overreacting over nothing.
- tomhoward 8y agoIt doesn't have to be an argument of belief; real-world examples will suffice. Every person I can think of who was a profoundly influential inventor, scientist or company leader has had some notable personality idiosyncrasies. Think: Nikola Tesla, Edison, Einstein, Newton, Howard Hughes. I'm happy to hear of counter-examples.
- thesz 8y agoHere's one: http://www.korolev-s-p.ru/sp11.htm http://www.korolev-s-p.ru/sp11.htm (in Russian) Sergey Korolyov, the "father of cosmonautics", when asked about his biography, directly instructed the writer to write about hundreds and thousands of scientists, engineers and workers that made conquering the space possible. After WWII, no less, to boot. From what I get, he was very humble and humane. And he was influential inventor, scientist and company leader, all at once. Richard Feynmann is one other example. But I believe you will find something in him you would consider idiosyncrasy.
- PinguTS 8y agoI just want to emphasis that Elon Musk was never and never will be the founder of Tesla. Instead, Elon Musk booted to 3 original founders out of Tesla. The original Tesla Roadster was no idea of Elon Musk and also not developed by Elon Musk. It was 3 engineers from the Valley who had the idea of the Tesla Roadster. Elon Musk was a Series A VC at Tesla at the time being. The founders had the idea of developing a hybrid as a following to the Roadster like the Fisker done at the time. At time it happend, I don't know how, that Elon Musk booted those original founders out, because Elon wanted an electric only car.
- tomp 8y agoThank god he did, otherwise we'd just have another company noone has ever heard of.
- Rainymood 8y agoI love how, from a technical perspective, Elon Musk is a startup founder's worst dream. You start up a company, some VC literally pushes the co-founders out of the company and takes over the reins. Is this really the person HN should be rooting for?
- tomp 8y agoThe VC chose the best CEO (which happened to be himself) for the company, in the best interest of the company, its employees and its shareholders. History absolves him. The real question is, were they adequately compensated for their contributions (I've no idea myself).
- masklinn 8y ago> The VC chose the best CEO (which happened to be himself) for the company, in the best interest of the company, its employees and its shareholders. In the same way Dick Cheney chose the best VP (which happened to be himself). > History absolves him. History absolves nothing. We've got no idea whatsoever how Tesla would have fared without a self-aggrandising marketer at the helm. Chances are it might have killed fewer people.
- apatters 8y agoThis is a very old story. Musk has become a celebrity. Everyone knows who he is. He dates famous singers, models etc. He has a drug dependency. He increasingly is making bizarre statements. Dude needs a handler. His continued success probably depends on him getting one and being able to hand over the reins a bit, at least in terms of what he says in public. And he needs to work on the Ambien issue. None of this means Tesla and SpaceX, which have deep benches of smart people, need to fail. None of it has much to do with those businesses at all. Fame takes a toll on a man.
- watwut 8y ago> Do we actually want Tesla and SpaceX to fail? That should be market thing, really. Is the business sound or just cool? The difference matters. > My concern is not for Musk's feelings, but for the way society goes about choosing, developing and critiquing the next generation of ambitious leaders, of whom we'll need plenty more if the world's increasingly complex problems are to be solved. The question is also, if you build something large and ambitious, does it cancel out the bad things that you done in the process of building it? Do we want to celebrate large and ambitious in expense of ethical? If another guy builds smaller company and resist pressure to be cool, but there is less price on employees, less lies to investors and public, the business side actually works, is that other guy really lesser? > I should add that this applies whether we're talking about corporate leaders or political/community leaders. Absolutely. Which is why it matters whether who we praise as role model is has ethical limits and considerations too. It matters very practically whether he/she is able/willing to foresee whether the dream business can work out - or whether he/she goes purely by own "I want it to be true" feelings.
- phobosdeimos 8y agoI'm not American and the arrogance and cognitive dissonance rubs me the wrong way. You are the CEO of a company not a visionary prophet. People like Musk wouldn't last a week here.
- kome 8y agoI agree... The parent comment is developing a bizarre cult of personality. It's really bizarre.
- compcoffee 8y ago>People like Musk wouldn't last a week here. Don't worry, this is just Tesla PR working overtime trying to mop up the latest folly. HackerNews is lapping it up, of course. Not everyone feels sorry for Elon Musk. He can quit at any time.
- johnny22 8y agoit's possible that maybe musk should stick to founding companies and then handing them off to someone else.
- skgoa 8y ago> But when I see the hate and vitriol heaped on him, I'm compelled to wonder just what kind of alternative universe people are wishing for. One where CEOs don't lie, don't insult heroes, don't cyberstalk journalists etc. Musk has only himself to blame for the pushback he is getting for being such a collossal douche.
- tomhoward 8y agoI completely agree that all that behaviour is appalling, but my point is: do you want him to change or do you want him and his companies to not exist? Because the alternative to him and his companies not existing is not simply that we get all the positive aspects of those companies but just provided by someone nicer.
- practice9 8y agoThere should be also a universe where journalists & bloggers are not on a payroll of respective industry giants. Sometimes it seems like journalism ethics are a thing of the past.
- mmsimanga 8y agoThe problem with the current social media age is that it is difficult to tell how serious a problem really is. Part of the outrage is attention seeking media entities. So if you asked me what was the greater problem, Musk or the gangsters terrorizing families and murdering anyone who stands up to them (this is the reality in parts of Cape Town). I would say Musk really isn't a problem. The media and politicians don't really want to tackle the "hard" problems where lives are at stake but there seems to be more willingness for example have a go at Musk and leave the gangsters alone.
- nostrebored 8y ago... what parts of CT are you talking about
- mmsimanga 8y agoMitchells Plain. Alot of the formerly "coloured" residential area. Here are some links for more information. https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/battle-for-cape-town-drug-turf-9-killed-in-3-weeks-of-urban-terror-20180806 https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/battle-for-cape-town... https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-07-31-gangs-have-cape-town-schools-under-siege-says-mec/ https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-07-31-gan...
- MrEfficiency 8y ago>The problem with the current social media age is that it is difficult to tell how serious a problem really is. And ofc, Tesla gives stories to people who write favorably about it. Elon has his one sided twitter propaganda outlet. One of the greatest issues is that despite lots of people online, only a few people have voices that are noticed.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- askaboutit 8y agoTinfoil hat on. Big industry hates Elon. Rockets are his now. And soon cars will be Tesla’s or at least Electric. Maybe they’ve been bashing him in order to break him. Don’t break the company. Break its leader. Just need to take a look at how tides have turned so quickly against Elon in the last year. Seems very odd. And the short sellers could quite easily be hedge funds backed with big money interests.
- compcoffee 8y ago>Big industry hates Elon Elon is Big Industry. Have you ever stopped to wonder that maybe people "don't like him" because he's a jerk and his company loses vast amounts of money? Don't need a tinfoil hat.
- shakestheclown 8y agoWhy would you care if his company loses someone else's money?
- rebuilder 8y agoIf your company is failing to meet goals and you know it, your PR department can keep the wolves at bay for some time. If you can't fix the problems, eventually the real situation of your company will start to come to light, and opinions will change abruptly, since the contrast between the PR and reality will have grown huge.
- nostrebored 8y agoOther companies make affordable EVs, and without the massive amounts of rent seeking that Elon takes part in. Tides turn quickly against conmen. Do you think Tesla will buy out shares?
- rjdagost 8y agoIt is not odd that the tides have turned against Musk. What is odd is that it took this long for the tides to turn against him. That a company is still around after incinerating cash so rapidly and consistently for ~16 years is an incredible feat. There is big money betting against him, but there is also big money betting for him. Most of Musk's troubles are of his own doing. He took enormous risks in rushing the Model 3 to production and frankly they have been disastrous. His SEC troubles (which are just starting) are entirely of his own doing.
- varjag 8y agoMusk is almost cartoonish embodiment of "entrepreneurial spirit", with his unremarkable background, eccentricities, outlier success and disregard for unions. In other words, he is clicking all the wrong buttons for political left, leading them on the trail of hunting for personal flaws (which he certainly has) and focused nitpicking. So yes, these people would rather see SpaceX or Tesla never happening, as a "bad" person doing good deeds invalidates much of their worldview.
- talltimtom 8y ago> Would we rather that Musk had just never founded Tesla and Space That really misses where a lot of the hate for Musk is coming from. If he had never started it in the first place, the shorters would not stand to win anything. They both want him to fail, but are also heavily invested in him having tried first. Also side note. Musk didn’t found Tesla, he bought in and kicked out the real founders. The company would likely not be where it is today without Musk, but I doubt it would have failed completely, likely just be worth less and working on becoming profitable with smaller anbitions.
- smcl 8y ago> he bought in and kicked out the real founders I was curious about this so I went to the Wikipedia article... > The company was founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, although the company also considers Elon Musk, JB Straubel and Ian Wright as co-founders.[1] The [1] linked article (https://www.cnet.com/news/tesla-motors-founders-now-there-are-five https://www.cnet.com/news/tesla-motors-founders-now-there-ar...) details a bizarre and complicated situation. It seems that Musk was declared to be a founder of the company retroactively as a result of a lawsuit related to the thing you described.
- compcoffee 8y ago>I think this hits at the crux of the issue around the performance/behaviour of Musk and other leaders of hugely ambitious companies You believe that? From the guy who would angrily call reporters if they didn't call him a Tesla founder (which he isn't)? He wants to give the reins up? >The number of people who are capable of building and running companies like these is vanishingly small Yeah, we never invented anything until Elon Musk came around. There aren't 10-20 car companies, run by CEOs you've never heard of, plugging away at EVs as we speak.
- mattmaroon 8y agoAs someone who has come really close on several occasions to buying TSLA puts (the options version of shorting) I think I can answer: the shorts aren't haters. The shorts don't want Tesla to fail. The shorts don't even think Tesla will fail. The shorts just think the market cap of Tesla is insane. It's higher than much larger, profitable automakers who can provably make and sell cars at scale. For Tesla to be worth its share price it has to grow by two orders of magnitude. I won't even say that that won't happen. It could. But it'll take years. And when it does the stock won't be worth more than it is now. On top of that there are risk factors. What if energy density of batteries doesn't substantially improve and all electric vehicles continue to be unappealing to large chunks of the population due to range anxiety? What if all electric does win (it's going to eventually) but the other companies are able to compete well enough and Tesla just becomes another Ford? Their share price is just out of control. The market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent, but I can totally see how someone with very deep pockets could find shorting Tesla a good bet even if they don't want it to (or even think it will) fail.
- 3pt14159 8y agoI've said similar things about Amazon, but I never had the balls to bet against Bezos and I'm glad I didn't. Even at 10x the earnings Amazon would still be a tenuous bet at its current market cap. I know the whole "ecommerce is a bear" and all that, but let's be real here; it isn't that much of a bear and Amazon is selling cheap Chinese shit. They're going to go the way that Ebay did. With AI and cheap energy logistics is going to go to become irrelevant with respect to total cost and at that point what do I need Amazon for? I'll be able to ask my phone to re-up my staples and for everything else I'll purchase from the manufacturer directly. All the profit is going to go to attention and trust, which means profits are going to be centred in high value brands and influencers. If anything, I'd prefer the opposite of Amazon. Some online store that just sells the best two of _everything_ that's irrelevant (toothpaste, etc) so I don't have to think about it. Plus AWS is overblown. Sure it's got good financials, but over time, AWS is a commodity play and commodity plays lose margin over time. There is some lock-in, but it's hard to lower prices for newcomers without reducing prices for the locked-in. But back to Tesla: You're right. It's not smart to bet against Musk. It will stay irrational for some time because great men like Musk will make the very most of their situation. Also, with this volatility I wouldn't go with puts. Leveraged shorts or selling calls sound like much smarter plays if you are going to bet against TSLA.
- lylecubed 8y ago> Do we actually want Tesla and SpaceX to fail? There are billions of dollars invested in Tesla's demise through shorts. Yes, quite a few people need Tesla to fail. A lot of those people also own media companies. Musk isn't being hyperbolic when he says the short sellers "are desperately pushing a narrative that will possibly result in Tesla’s destruction." > what kinds of people it will take to lead the next generation of such companies, and how we can identify and develop them. This was something I was thinking about the other day as well, except I wasn't thinking about Tesla. I was thinking about Apple and how Jobs clearly didn't prepare for his inevitable death. Had it been anybody else, I would have been able to explain it away as not being able to predict the future, but Apple has suffered through Jobs leaving once before. More or less the exact same thing happened both times (to the company after he left, I mean. Not to Jobs himself, obviously). So why didn't Jobs do a better job of finding and cultivating a successor? edit: added clarification
- maxwell 8y agoI wonder about succession at Amazon and Facebook.
- r2d2-c3po 8y agoShort sellers don't need Tesla to fail to make money. There's plenty of room between Tesla being worth 50-60 billion and Tesla being worth 0. 50-60 billion of market cap means that Tesla has to do some absolutely crazy things in the next few years in an increasingly competitive environment while they've struggled consistently to meet production targets in less competitive environments. They have some problems such as a convertible bond issue for almost one billion due in Feb'19 that only adds to the cash burn problems if they can't meet the $360 convertible price. Short sellers push a narrative because they want the price to go down, but they really only take the position because they think that the market has currently mispriced the firm and there is opportunity there. They're not inventing problems, they're pointing out that they're there (perhaps exaggerating, but that's for the people to identify if true or not with the money they put on longs/shorts for Tesla).
- kamaal 8y ago>>So why didn't Jobs do a better job of finding and cultivating a successor? Because people aren't exactly replaceable like spare parts. If your biggest edge is a person, and the unique value they bring through their work. Then its almost impossible to replace them. Apple is still one thing. I think something like Amazon will be far harder to imagine without Jeff Bezos.
- e40 8y agoBut when I see the hate and vitriol heaped on him, I'm compelled to wonder just what kind of alternative universe people are wishing for. I think you give these people waaaaay too much credit. They have no imagination of some other future without Musk. They are people who reaction to emotion and give in to their baser instincts (to shit on something because he gives them some pleasure). The last 3 years (in the US) has taught me a big lesson: people are dumber and meaner than I ever thought. And, to be precise on the "dumb" part, I know many very book-smart people who are just dumb, because while they have all that book smarts, they make very, very dumb life decisions. I wish we could redefine the word "smart" to be more broad. Just because you scored really high on the SAT doesn't mean you are smart.
- cm2187 8y agoBut market manipulation is market manipulation. It is hard to have any sympathy for Musk on this matter, when in the same interview he appears to be obsessed with shortsellers, and at the same time pretends to have casually, without thinking about it, mentioned a buyout including a price, "on his way to the airport". I am struggling with the idea that if you are rich and famous, if you are a tech celebrity, somehow laws shouldn't apply to you. I don't agree that he should be given a pass.
- tomhoward 8y agoI'm not saying laws and ethical principles shouldn't apply to him, or that he should given a pass for actual wrongdoing. My central point is that we're not currently very capable or supportive at helping talented-but-flawed people reform, and that if we could become better at that, the world would probably be far better off.
- Kinnard 8y agoMusk didn't found Tesla.
- grosjona 8y agoI think that there are lots of people who could do a better job than Elon Musk but they will never have the opportunity to prove it. The vast majority of people would know that calling the Thai cave diver/rescuer a 'pedo-guy' was a bad decision. Also, announcing that some funding was secured when it actually wasn't - That was a bad decision as well. To suggest that Elon Musk is irreplaceable is ridiculous. People used to say that Steve Jobs was irreplaceable but look at the Apple stock price now.
- chatmasta 8y agoTesla/SpaceX now are more like Apple before the first time it fired Jobs. In that case, he was most definitely not replaceable (he had to come back). So that’s maybe not the best analogy at this time.
- lttlrck 8y agoHowever in his Stanford Commencement Address Jobs said “I didn't see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me”
- leot 8y agoName a time when a genuinely ambitious and innovative company booted its visionary founders, and it went well.
- Sangermaine 8y ago>But when I see the hate and vitriol heaped on him, I'm compelled to wonder just what kind of alternative universe people are wishing for. >Do we actually want Tesla and SpaceX to fail? >Would we rather that Musk had just never founded Tesla and SpaceX, that the world didn't have any companies doing what those companies are trying to do, and that we were left to be content with the previous status quo in the automotive and space industries? This is exactly the sort of dishonest response to any criticism of Musk that makes it seem like you're talking to a cultist. People criticizing Musk's treatment of workers, or the soundness of his business practices, or what have you, aren't praying for his failure or (even more bizarrely) against the very concept of Progress itself. It's utterly bizarre that Musk has been made into this untouchable deity, who is apparently the living incarnation of technology, by some people. Musk isn't a god, he's just a businessman. He's done some good and has drive and ambition, but it's perfectly valid to analyze how he runs his businesses or conducts himself. Being a "Visionary" doesn't give him a free pass to abuse his workers or be an asshole, and if he can't operate without being that way then maybe he should be removed. However, if he can learn to rein himself in and address the concerns raised about his companies instead of throwing childish tantrums over every criticism, then he can be of great value to the world.
- eaurouge 8y agoElon Musk did not found Tesla. I do want Tesla to succeed, but facts are facts.
- rayiner 8y ago> Do we actually want Tesla and SpaceX to fail? Maybe we do? It's worth remembering that the folks who took us to the moon in the first place were government employees and federal contractors. No rockstar leaders with a tweeting habit. Musk has accomplished a lot, and it's upsetting to see the personal attacks against him. His tweets are a little reckless, but whose aren't these days? But that doesn't mean we want the future of our tech industry to look like Tesla and SpaceX rather than Toyota and Boeing.
- Isinlor 8y ago> Maybe we do? It's worth remembering that the folks who took us to the moon in the first place were government employees and federal contractors. No rockstar leaders with a tweeting habit. Do you think it was really less noisy? Wasn't it started by threat of Soviet rockets flying over your heads? Threat of third world war? The sputnik moment? With a pinch of charismatic leadership of JF Kennedy? Famous "We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard (...)" The president who got assassinated? I doesn't sound like less noisy period. And without the threat you ended up buying Soviet-era engines and Russian organized trips to ISS. Until Musk and SpaceX happened and put you back in leadership position.
- LaGrange 8y ago> Would we rather that Musk had just never founded Tesla and Space Yes, while SpaceX has _something_ going for it — though not as much as people like to think, Tesla isn't anything to write home about. Nissan is the market leader in electric vehicles, not Tesla. Tesla survives only because the cult status means people are willing to wait more than they otherwise would. SpaceX does some cool things - as a rocket enthusiast I pay more attention than a space fan arguably should - but a) I'd attribute that to Shotwell more than to Elon, and b) keep things in perspective, rockets are _not_ more expensive than payloads, except for really light payloads, where I'd pay more attention to the less-exciting light launch segment. And SpaceX is very much rooted in the US de-funding NASA, and extracting both engineering projects and subsidies from it.
- leesec 8y agoThis comment is so insane to me. How can you say Tesla isn't anything to write home about when, according to many many credible automotive critics, they've invented several of the best cars of all time? Love or hate Musk sure, but it's crazy to deny his accomplishments.
- LaGrange 8y agoI think calling cars that randomly catch fire and drive into walls "best" says more about the critics than the cars.
- ataturk 8y agoTesla is a public company and yet it looks to me more like a clever stock and government subsidy swindle than anything else. I actually feel bad for all the suckers who bought Tesla cars because I know they're going to be out a lot of money one way or another. In terms of cars as transportation, you could not have chosen worse in terms of overall cost vs. benefit. The charging time alone makes them a non-starter for anyone who properly values their time. Musk played to wealthy people and their inherent guilt over the environment and played to the middle class's aspirant desires. Musk is a PT Barnum and you have to respect that. It's just that as cars go, Teslas are just shiny bullshit in so many respects. And in other respects, they are an innovation that demands respect. But it is all muddled up into a cult of personality. Musk ought to step down from Tesla and let someone else take over before it fails. If these cars are such a great idea, it should not be difficult for someone else to run with it. SpaceX is Musk's crowning achievement. The reusable rockets are a tremendous innovation, paid for by US tax payers (as usual) who will never seen $.01 in return for their investment (as usual). SpaceX, being a wholly private venture, exists to fill a niche while making the billionaires richer. What else can be said? "The number of people who are capable of building and running companies like these is vanishingly small" I wholeheartedly disagree. The number is controlled by access to the elite plutocracy and not much else. Like medicine, there is a cartel that controls access to the important areas of society, and C-level executives and board memberships are an elite club where family connections and nepotism rule. This is the truth about American upward mobility and it is an UGLY, UGLY truth. And yes, I am aware that Musk somewhat is bucking this trend, but then again, I have not investigated his background and how he got where he is connections-wise. It wasn't just because he is a bright guy with great ideas.
- lossolo 8y ago> But when I see the hate and vitriol heaped on him, I'm compelled to wonder just what kind of alternative universe people are wishing for. Well, maybe it's something different.. Stanford psychologists find that when online comments pile up against an individual’s questionable behavior, people are more likely to see it as bullying and start to feel sympathy for the offender.[1] [1] https://news.stanford.edu/2018/08/09/moral-outrage-goes-viral-can-come-across-bullying/ https://news.stanford.edu/2018/08/09/moral-outrage-goes-vira...
- wilsonnb3 8y ago> Would we rather that Musk had just never founded Tesla and SpaceX, that the world didn't have any companies doing what those companies are trying to do, and that we were left to be content with the previous status quo in the automotive and space industries? People have a serious messiah complex when it comes to Musk. Had he never been born, the automotive industry would still be moving towards electric cars. The first Prius predates Tesla by six years, and hybrid cars have done far more than Tesla has to push the industry in the direction of electric vehicles. SpaceX has done far more than Tesla to push the rocket industry towards reusable launch systems but even then, had SpaceX never existed another company would have developed one within 5-10 years anyways.
- tynpeddler 8y ago>SpaceX has done far more than Tesla to push the rocket industry towards reusable launch systems but even then, had SpaceX never existed another company would have developed one within 5-10 years anyways. This seems unlikely. Up until Spacex actually landed a rocket, every other launch provider in the world considered it a ridiculous goal. The launch industry was concentrated around 3 groups, none of which had any incentive to innovate. There's Bezos's Blue Origin, but given their anemic development rate, and the fact they were almost certainly heavily influenced by Spacex, I don't see them as a viable alternative in the universe where Musk does not exist.
- dagoat 8y ago> every other launch provider in the world considered it a ridiculous goal VTVL was a thing before SpaceX > almost certainly heavily influenced by Spacex Blue Origin was founded almost 2 years before SpaceX
- tynpeddler 8y agoVTVL were mostly suborbital toys and demonstrators. None of the major launch providers were actively developing recoverable, orbital boosters. As for Spacex influencing Blue Origin, I mean that spacex has set the tone for for what is possible and this has almost certainly helped inspire and drive Blue Origin's products.
- bogomipz 8y ago>"Would we rather that Musk had just never founded Tesla and SpaceX, ... If not, then it would surely be better for the conversation to be less about how crazy or unstable or reckless Musk is..." This seems like a false dichotomy. The headline of this piece has a reference to Tweeting and the article by extension concerns his at time provocative social media presence. I am someone who is rooting for Tesla and the mainstreaming of purely electric cars and reusable rockets. And there are many investors who are actively rooting for his successes as well. But he doesn't do himself any favors by calling someone a "pedo" on Twitter or stating "he's secured funding to take the company private" etc. We live in world of hyper-sensationalized news cycles, something he's well aware of. I would rather the media and public discourse focused on the positive aspects of his entrepreneurial endeavors. But when he as CEO gives them lots of fuel and easy path to do otherwise he's kind of part that problem in that no?
- fosco 8y agothis sounds like an approval of moral licensing. I am a big fan of Musk however I think that simply because he appears (and in many cases is) to be doing great things for society does not license him to also make the short sighted decision that he did. full disclosure: I hope the company goes private and think it could do much better if it was not beholden to shareholders or stock market speculation. I think he wishes he never took it public and left it private like Spacex
- djanogo 8y ago"If you have anyone who can do a better job, please let me know. They can have the job. Is there someone who can do the job better? They can have the reins right now" Being a leader he has to split his job and find competent people who specialize in that field to do that job. EM seems to have problem trusting or delegating parts of job that he currently does. I don't follow his twitter that much, does he ever praise his VP's and let them have limelight with his massive followers?, all the major twitter news seems to be about "him" doing something. I know it's his personal twitter, but he uses it to represent Tesla.