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Are diesel’s days numbered? A view from a trip to BYD’s electric bus factory
- sverige 8y agoIt's interesting that electric trucks and buses are making a comeback. A hundred years ago, they were pretty common in big cities. Also, the article seems to acknowledge that city driving is the best application for electric vehicles.
- bluedino 8y agoThat have 350,000 electric buses in China
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago16,000 just for Shenzen. They've made the full switch to EV this year for a city of ~14 million inhab. It's crazy. For comparison, Paris (I should say the Parisian region) plans to have only 2,000 zero missions buses by 2025! And that official numbers includes NGV... So much talk about the transition (remember the "Paris Agreement"?) and yet, so little progress...
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- justinator 8y ago> A hundred years ago, they were pretty common in big cities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_consp...
- WhompingWindows 8y agoI'd say they are making a comeback because of climate/air pollution reasons, but also because the energy competition between batteries and oil is starting to balance out. The energy density stored in oil is far greater than the primitive batteries used 100 years ago, which allowed for much larger ranges. However, as batteries have gotten far better, now batteries are starting to rival oil as an energy source on its parameters and economics. City driving is indeed the best environment for EVs simply for the air pollution reasons, never mind the added benefits of lower speeds and lower ranges.
- bmcusick 8y agoI like the discussion at the end about the difficulties on delivering the busses long distance, and the lack of chargers big enough to recharge them. If the Tesla Semi actually launches at some point, perhaps that will change and we will get city-to-city electric busses too. Battery ranges should improve to the point where that becomes practical over the next few years too. What a great market that would be for Waymo. Predictable routes of mostly highway driving would be right up their alley.
- seanmcdirmid 8y agoWith electric buses, at least, you can put the chargers at end point stations, which is a cost but one bussing agencies can handle. Also, they cost much less than the overhead wires electric trolley buses currently use.
- Gibbon1 8y agoIf you have enough cities with electric buses in their fleets you could probably hop skip from one muni bus yard to the next.
- Obi_Juan_Kenobi 8y agoOne idea I've read is to use those overhead wires for BEV busses, but only on certain segments. Most bus lines loop through a central area, so could charge along a section of a few blocks that feature the overhead wires.
- seanmcdirmid 8y agoWire attachment is a big problem even for bus line me that are fully overhead. Before the buses had batteries, a detachment often required shutting down the road and bringing out a big truck to reattach the bus. Seattle used to run dual gas/electric (not really hybrids since no battery) in the downtown tunnel by having them attach going in and Unattach going out. Great when it worked, but it often didn’t, so they just use cleaner emission buses now instead.
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- ucaetano 8y agoBetteridge's law of headlines applies.
- khawkins 8y agoIndeed. BYD's electric vehicle production is heavily supported by Chinese subsidies and cuts in these subsidies have had a big impact on profits. Its stock has been steadily declining since the announcement earlier this year. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-byd-results/chinas-byd-warns-profit-to-plunge-on-electric-car-subsidy-cuts-shares-tumble-idUSKBN1H31PP https://www.reuters.com/article/us-byd-results/chinas-byd-wa...
- Gibbon1 8y agoDiesel Buses are deadmen walking at this point.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y agoyeah, sure: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_fossil_fuel_vehicles#List_of_countries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_foss...
- stephengillie 8y agoCompression ignition is being used in gasoline by Mazda. Their Skyactiv-X technology uses the spark to control when the compression ignites (like fake-dieseling), and Skyactiv-X uses "dieseling" without spark to run the engine at low loads. https://youtu.be/9KhzMGbQXmY?t=4m50s https://youtu.be/9KhzMGbQXmY?t=4m50s
- legohead 8y agoI just got a new Mazda with a Skyactiv engine. I am really happy with the performance, but wanted to see about adding a turbo. Seems like it's not a good idea to add a turbo to an engine with 13:1 compression. The engine can actually run at 14:1, but they lowered it for the US. Anyway, Infiniti has a new engine that is variable-compression, so they can run at 14:1 OR 8:1, and they add on a turbo to use at the lower compression. Pretty freaking sweet: https://www.infinitiusa.com/about/technology/vc-turbo-engine.html https://www.infinitiusa.com/about/technology/vc-turbo-engine...
- stephengillie 8y agoLate edit: - Skyactiv uses the spark to control the compression-based ignition. - Skyactiv-X goes a step further to use only compression to ignite 87 octane gasoline.
- davidgould 8y agoIt's really interesting to see Mazda take a lead in engine design. Once one would have expected this more from Honda. However, it's not all good. Apparently direct injection gasoline engines emit more particulates than conventional gasoline engines. This may be a manageable problem and new regulations are supposedly in effect from 2017 in the US (unless they got caught in Trumps emissions control rollback), but that does not clean up the several years of cars with direct injection before now.
- Shivetya 8y agoWell, ask LA how that is working out [1]. While I applaud the effort it is not without its problems. I always thought that we should have moved to electrify school buses. while the initial expense is high it would have protected systems from fluctuations in fuel prices that have put a real hurt on them at times. plus it would get kid used to the idea of an EV world and not having to sit on buses idling for too long [1] http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-20180520-story.html http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-2018...
- sampo 8y ago> Well, ask LA how that is working out Just because America cannot make something work, doesn't mean it cannot work in other countries. Especially in the public sector context, which is full of mismanagement in America.
- CaliforniaKarl 8y agoI don't think the parent comment was making that kind of point. The referenced article was talking about problems that LA officials were seeing at (and with the vehicles produced by) the BYD plant that is the subject of this post's Ars Technica article. And I can vouch for that; as I detailed in another comment, I often ride BYD buses that are old enough to be in the scope of the LA Times article, and there are issues. I expect this electric vehicle maker will get their act together with time!
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- _FKS_ 8y agoSide-note: a barrel of oil gives a fixed amount of gasoline and diesel fuel, and that's hard to change [1]. A given refinery could slightly change the amounts, but not much, and that's billions in investments. Even if you replaced diesel vehicles by electric ones, the diesel fuel will be burned somewhere else. [1] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/fsc432/content/overview-refinery-products-and-processes https://www.e-education.psu.edu/fsc432/content/overview-refi...
- akvadrako 8y agoInteresting - but there is lots of opportunity to burn it on boats or remote generators.
- black6 8y agoAnd phase out that nasty bunker fuel ships burn in international waters. But then there’s the issue of what to do with the bottoms from the column.
- toomuchtodo 8y agoMore oil for asphalt in infrastructure repair.
- runarberg 8y agoIndeed, but—since you mentioned it—there are a lot of missed opportunities in electrifying short range passenger ferries. Many ferries might only sail for 20 minutes and remain docked for a while where they could be recharged. Even on a busy ferry routes, a natural gas powered boats might actually make a lot more sense then a diesel powered one. The only real use for a diesel engine now might be for long distance cargo vessels, cross ocean passenger ferries, and very very huge fishing trawlers (although I would very much like to see the big trawlers vanish into history).
- inferiorhuman 8y ago> there are a lot of missed opportunities in electrifying short range passenger ferries About that: https://electrek.co/2018/02/03/all-electric-ferry-cuts-emission-cost/ https://electrek.co/2018/02/03/all-electric-ferry-cuts-emiss...
- sandworm101 8y agoArticle misses big point: This is not about electric buses. Electric buses have been a thing in many cities for decades. Vancouver BC has run electric buses since at least the early 90s when I rode them to school. This is about battery-powered buses. Running on electricity and running on internal batteries are two very different things. Edit: Vancouver has been running electric buses since 1948. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_buses_in_Vancouver https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_buses_in_Vancouver And these are not cable cars running tiny tourist routes in a downtown core. These buses cover the suburbs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_buses_in_Vancouver#/media/File:Vancouver_trolley_bus_-_New_Flyer_E60LFR.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_buses_in_Vancouver#/me...
- HillaryBriss 8y agoI thought the same thing. Thanks for making that point. San Francisco and Seattle have run significant numbers of electric buses for a long time, too.
- Animats 8y agoGillig, in Fremont, also makes electric buses in the US. Cummins (formerly Cummins Diesel), from Columbus, OH, makes the electric powertrain. Cummins owns a battery company in the UK. It's nice that BYD is using lithium iron phosphate batteries. Much safer than ordinary lithium-iron batteries. You really don't want a bus-sized battery fire.
- TomMarius 8y agoThe bus batteries aren't usually as huge as you'd expect them, I've seen buses with just double the size of a Tesla S battery. It's because they just recharge often, they don't need long range, a single circle is usually 30km max.
- DubiousPusher 8y agoAnd I assume they can charge faster with specialized super-duper charging equipment.
- sbierwagen 8y agoFaster you charge a battery, the shorter its lifetime. https://www.mpoweruk.com/life.htm https://www.mpoweruk.com/life.htm
- TomMarius 8y agoBut you can swap batteries and thus charge the bus almost instantly.
- bluetomcat 8y agoWhat is more efficient than a diesel engine for long-distance economy cruising? A big European family car like a Mercedes E220 CDI estate can cover more than 1000 kilometres on a single tank of fuel at highway speed, all while carrying 5 passengers and their luggage.
- IB885588 8y agoElectric is more efficient/cleaner than that. You might not get the same range, but realistically, few people drive that far without stopping (biological needs, taking a break, etc), so that provides time for fast-charging.
- EADGBE 8y agoBiological needs and taking a break don't necessitate 20-30 minutes every 300 miles, though. I think this is the only advantage combustion engines still have. It seems to be a big one. To refill a tank takes less than 10 minutes, with the range stated by parent.
- dsfyu404ed 8y agoI'd like to add that when you aren't rich enough to own a specialized vehicle for every task you have to cater more toward the edge cases, for most people that interior size and/or higher passenger/cargo capacity than they need on a daily basis. Likewise nobody's gonna make their only car something with a 250mi range and a mandatory 45min break if you're going farther than that because it makes a 150mi round trip something you have to actively plan for (because starting on 50% will be a pain in the butt vs a 10min delay with a liquid fueled vehicle).
- Arbalest 8y agoThat's when car hire companies come into the mix. If you're not commuting those distances regularly, chances are you've planned the long distance in advance.
- lowry 8y agoThere are cool electric buses running in the streets of Minsk, Belarus since a couple of years. IIRC, they have nikel-iron batteries with have limited capacity but good lifetime, and they recharge quickly. An electric bus runs for 30-40 min from terminus to terminus, then charges for 10 min from trolley power lines. Pretty neat, especially considering that nickel and iron are extracted in nearby Russia and are much cheaper than lithium.
- tim333 8y agoI came across this Minsk bus article while looking for a photo https://euroradio.fm/en/electric-buses-enter-service-minsk https://euroradio.fm/en/electric-buses-enter-service-minsk Interesting for this one it says: buses will be equipped with Chinese supercondensers that proved to operate very well in Bulgaria and China. Re-charging will not take more than 7 minutes.
- TimTheTinker 8y agoDiesel will be with us for a very long time yet, even if all diesel buses were to be swapped for electric. -- Diesel locomotives (train engines) and many ships use diesel generators to power electric motors -- this setup is useful for applications where high torque is required at low RPMs (even down to 0 RPM) -- Many grid support power plants use diesel generators (especially for emergency backup) -- Diesel-powered trucks, tractors, and heavy equipment -- Military vehicles
- IB885588 8y agoThe first place to phase it out of is densely populated areas, because of all the particulate matter pollution which is particularly bad for people's health: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5352477/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5352477/
- EADGBE 8y agoHere we go again, putting people ahead of mother earth. /s
- Gibbon1 8y agoFriends comment is people constantly complain about maintenance trucks, because they have to run the diesel engine to power hydraulics.
- _ph_ 8y agoThats one beauty of a proper electric truck: you can operate all the power equipment off the electric.
- Gibbon1 8y ago> train engines, tractors, and heavy equipment Run the numbers noting that all these have much lower power to weight ratio's than buses and cars. Numbers say diesel is more expensive on a total cost of ownership basis.
- moonlighter 8y ago
- DubiousPusher 8y agoSeems like there'd be significant savings in having multiple municipalities or even entire states coordinate their bus orders. It seems especially silly to order a custom looking bus because this would obviously raise the price of replacement parts. Is this part of why old buses always look like crap? Cities don't want to pay the crazy cost of replacing a custom part that is clearly damaged or worn out.
- jessaustin 8y agoCity buses are not the only large vehicles that typically are manufactured after purchase. Firetrucks, concrete trucks, and many limousines are the same. If you're going to build it by hand on demand anyway, why not add value by building exactly what the customer wants? So long as designs stay within an engineering envelope, which envelope can be pretty broad when we're talking about something as simple as an electric bus, it doesn't add much cost to accommodate the customer's particular needs. If those needs extend to having a particular number of body panels in stock for future repairs, that's fine. Nothing mechanical in the drivetrain would be custom (although I suppose the batteries might be, apparently they have a guarantee).
- inferiorhuman 8y agoFleet standardization can work (see the old PCC trams) or it might not work (see Boeing's disastrous trams).
- seanalltogether 8y agoThey don't mention it in the article but do these big buses use regenerative braking? Seems like a no-brainer to add on considering all the starts and stops a bus does, but maybe it's not worth the extra cost for fixed route operation?
- simonbyrne 8y agoI believe most electric buses do: adding regenerative braking to electric vehicles requires little additional hardware (the electric motors can act as generators, etc.), so it is certainly cost-effective.
- CaliforniaKarl 8y agoI believe they do use regenerative braking, yes. I say that because I ride BYD busses on a regular basis, and (especially on older models, which are not as smooth) you can feel (what I think is) the jerk of regenerative braking kicking on.
- Faaak 8y agoThey do indeed. Same as trams, trains, or trolleys
- CaliforniaKarl 8y agoI regularly ride on buses that were made by BYD. I have been for the past year (or so), and have noticed a few things: • The front destination signs seem to always have had problems. In addition to the technical problem (that is, problems with the signs themselves), there is also a weird build issue on some of the busses: The bus has a front panel above the windshield, part of which (the part in front of the sign) is transparent. For some reason, some buses got an unusually-small transparent area, with a regular-size sign display, which meant that the test was always partially-unreadable. I assume that different display hardware was supposed to be used? • The acceleration and braking dynamics are _very_ different compared to diesel (and even diesel-hybrid) busses: Because so much torque is available immediately when moving from a stop, it is very easy to jerk passengers around. Similarly, the busses like to move into regenerative braking immediately the foot is lifted off of the accelerator, often making another jerk. It can be difficult to adjust (as a driver) if you're moving between multiple different types of busses, during a week or even during a shift. Both of the above issues are things that can be rectified, although I wonder how much modification would be needed to get smoother acceleration and braking. And regardless, the time needed for the bus to be out of service (to implement any necessary modifications) is still time where the bus's value is continuing to depreciate.
- jartelt 8y agoBesides the negative acceleration/deceleration issues, are there any features of the BYD buses that you really enjoy? I imagine they are very quiet and don't smell like exhaust. Just wondering if those nice qualities improve the bus riding experience at all.
- CaliforniaKarl 8y agoHmmmmmmm, an interesting question! I think the biggest plus point is, if you are seated, and facing in the direction of travel, then the acceleration/deceleration issue doesn't apply. You then have an experience where you get to where you need to go much faster, because the bus is better able to keep up with traffic. Also, regarding two of your points: > I imagine they are very quiet… Actually, the answer may surprise you! My experience has been that the electric buses can be louder than their diesel equivalents. I expect this is because that, for diesel buses, the noisiest components are all in one place (normally the very back of the bus) with soundproofing material in place between the engine compartment and you). Electric busses (at least the ones I've experienced) have motors spread all around you, with less sound-dampening material in the way. > …and don't smell like exhaust. Exhaust smell is not something I've particularly noticed from the remaining diesel busses. I expect that is due to three reasons: (1) The emissions standards placed on California-registered diesel vehicles; (2) the maintenance regime in place; (3) the fact that, when I leave the bus, I end up going towards the front (and away from the exhaust pipe). Although, in places that I've experienced which don't have (1) and (2), you are right!
- SuspiciousSwan 8y agoI don't have a lot of faith in BYD busses actually working correctly. Proterra seems like the most solid design around, and looking on LinkedIn, it seems like they picked up a lot of people who worked at Tesla when things were going better over there.
- aunty_helen 8y agoCare to expand on why? It seems they are working correctly as they make over 500,000 vehicles a year whilst Proterra are claiming 375 since inception. [1] [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Auto#Sales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Auto#Sales >BYD Auto sold a total of 506,189 passenger cars in China in 2013 [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proterra,_Inc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proterra,_Inc. >the company has sold more than 375 buses
- jonahhorowitz 8y agoThe thing we really need is inductive charging for the busses at each stop, and at each stoplight. Then you don't need to carry the heavy batteries around. https://bigthink.com/design-for-good/wireless-charging-road-for-electric-busses-will-be-built-in-israel https://bigthink.com/design-for-good/wireless-charging-road-...
- alkonaut 8y agoFor high traffic routes you could electrify the road and need even less batteries. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/12/worlds-first-electrified-road-for-charging-vehicles-opens-in-sweden https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/12/worlds-f...
- romwell 8y agoIt looks like you are inventing a trolley bus [1] [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybus
- iguy 8y agoOr last century's version: https://www.google.com/search?q=trolley+bus&tbm=isch https://www.google.com/search?q=trolley+bus&tbm=isch But agree that hybrids seem like an interesting option. Electrifying half the route may be much much easier than electrifying 100%, and would let you run small-battery electric busses all day.
- JohnClark1337 8y ago"Are diesel's days numbered?" Have you ever wondered what life was like outside of a city? It's a very interesting place. You should try it sometime.
- jcrawfordor 8y agoI find it interesting that this article doesn't mention the Albuquerque Rapid Transit (ART) debacle. The political mess surrounding ART is far from entirely due to BYD, but ART placed what I believe is the largest order so far for 60-foot electric buses from BYD. The comment about driving the 60-foot units long distances with generators is the way that they've delivered the first several units. The situation has decayed to the point that Albuquerque has considered trying to terminate the contract. The first several units delivered have had significant quality problems, and recently the city's inspector general released a report suggesting that audits showing the buses comply with Buy America regulations were falsified and they are potentially ineligible for expected federal grants. Workers in the city transportation department have voiced concerns about many of the components on the buses being apparently manufactured in China and lacking US certification marks and, in some cases, English documentation. Delivery on the remaining buses in the order continues to move farther back. The City went into the project understanding that the 60-foot buses were a new product for BYD, and even expects federal funding from a grant program for employing new technologies. But at this point BYD is a significant part of the near complete failure of a major project built around their product. It seems worth mentioning that their customers are not all happy. To ART's credit, the city IG reports that massive pressure for the city forced BYD to begin delivering units earlier than they otherwise would have (but still significantly behind schedule). https://www.abqjournal.com/1116887/mayor-outlines-major-problems-with-art-including-inability-to-charge-buses.html https://www.abqjournal.com/1116887/mayor-outlines-major-prob... https://www.abqjournal.com/1182473/report-criticizes-art-project.html https://www.abqjournal.com/1182473/report-criticizes-art-pro... https://www.abqjournal.com/1182905/report-company-sent-faulty-art-bus-due-to-city-pressure.html https://www.abqjournal.com/1182905/report-company-sent-fault... Part of the grant program the city is using to fund the project is that the city will send one or two units to an FTA facility for inspection and testing. That testing is expected to result in the FTA certifying the model for future non-experimental federal grant programs, but most people involved in the ART project now have significant doubts about whether or not BYD will be able to deliver units that pass this process.
- digi_owl 8y agoOne thing to consider is that technically a diesel engine can run not just on petroleum based fuels. Thus i think the engine itself is likely to be with us for a long time, but perhaps not used primarily in the ways we do today.
- dghughes 8y agoYears ago I bought a diesel because it was more efficient (and more expensive) than gasoline and emitted less nitrogen oxide. Now diesel vehicles are seen as worse than gas engine vehicles. But switching isn't a problem the people who were early diesel adopters did it for a reason; efficiency so really electric vehicles are the new diesel.
- zerr 8y agoNo. There are emerging/developping markets. I'm pretty sure all those prohibited diesel vehicles will be exported there, unfortunately.
- zelon88 8y agoI hate seeing this conversation about diesel when we should be having this discussion about gasoline. Gasoline engines have lesser thermal efficiency and lesser torque potential than diesel engines. If you're going to get rid of one or the other, get rid of gasoline vehicles. Diesel engines have a longer stroke, cooler combustion, more flexibility with air/fuel ratios, extreme wear tolerance, lower rotational speeds, and cost the same with similar complexity to gasoline engines. They are also more economical in practice because their extra low-end torque gives them (arguably) a drivability advantage which lends itself to increased MPG. They are superior to gasoline engines in every way. And because they can run with air/fuel ratios anywhere from 10:1 all the way to 60:1 they can easily run a mutitude of different fuel's with only minor software adjustments. So please, stop shitting on diesel. It's ignorant to the fact that you probably drive a gasoline powered car that does more damage to the environment per gallon of fuel burned than a diesel bus.
- gamblor956 8y agoThey are superior in every way except the one that matters: diesels are much dirtier than gasoline engines, especially with respect to particulate emissions. Diesels are only good for limited purposes, like buses and trucks, that need the higher efficiency.
- haloux 8y agoThat's a really difficult argument to make without a source. A lot of recent research is disproving the age-old trope of 'Damn Dirty Diesel'. sources and additional reading: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es034928d https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es034928d https://phys.org/news/2017-05-carcinogenic-soot-particles-petrol.html https://phys.org/news/2017-05-carcinogenic-soot-particles-pe... https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/03/f9/2002_deer_ahlvik.pdf https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/03/f9/2002_deer...
- jeffwass 8y agoFirst paper only covers CO2. Second paper only considers fine-size (<20 nm) particulates (and not larger sizes like 100nm+) of direct injection cars, and is a bit misleading by comparing six cars to a single carefully-selected diesel car with particulate filter. Further, in reality here in a London, people are cutting open their Diesel particulate filters to avoid cost of replacing clogged filters and still passing MOT exhaust tests, which apparently don’t/can’t check for filter tampering. Third paper is way back in 2002 and considers only cars, not heavy trucks and buses, which are way worse in urban settings.
- acd 8y agoLithium Iron batteries makes sense. The cobalt used in anode of common Lithium Ion batteries, 60% of the worlds cobolt is mined in Congo. Cobolt is conflict mineral https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt It makes sense to use Lithium Iron batteries in a bus because these batteries can take more recharge cycles 2000-8000 instead of the normal 500 recharge cycles of Lithium Cobolt. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery
- mattlondon 8y agoFascinating. In London we've had a few BYD busses in London since late 2016 now: https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2016/september/mayor-unveils-first-fully-electric-bus-routes-for-central-lond https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2016/septem... This appears to be the bus they use: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_K9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_K9 I'd love to know how they are holding up (I have to assume that the limited deployment is effectively a trial by Transport for London to see how well they work) if anyone knows of any updates on those? Based on the statistics for London buses (about 490 million KM driven a year by 9616 buses = about 51,000KM a year, or about 32,000 miles a year source: https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/publications-and-reports/buses-performance-data https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/publications-and-reports/buses-... for distance and https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/number-buses-type-bus-london?resource=12ab947a-6d02-4792-93d1-dac9da2cc7d2 https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/number-buses-type-bus-lon... for number of buses) it would seem that the average daily distance for a bus would likely be somewhere in the 80-120 miles a day range depending on how many days a year a bus is driven (that range is for 365 days to 250 days a year). At 80-125 miles a day, that seems like it is screaming out for electrification right now. It would seem that it is totally within the reach of current technology. The BYD K9 has an advertised range of 155 miles. The sooner diesel buses (and trucks) leave urban areas like London the better. The rancid stench and taste of diesel fumes that hit you is disgusting, not to mention that some diesel vehicles are outrageously loud too. Diesel is literally killing us.
- tim333 8y agoThere was an article on the BYD London busses 4 months ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17400067 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17400067 They seem to be holding up ok. They are only used on some unusually short routes. I'm with you on the sooner the bussed go electric the better. Shenzhen has done all 16,359 of its busses so it's possible. They seem to be BYDs too. https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/4/17/17239368/china-investment-solar-electric-buses-cost https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/4/17/1723936...
- mattlondon 8y ago
- dzhiurgis 8y agoI find it weird that SV companies like Google et al. that offer bus shuttle from office doesn't use e-buses. Personally e-bus is matter of comfort and reduced noice for me and people around.
- siculars 8y agoHow long before some valley city council mandates public transport and outlaws private company transport like the Google bus. Because, you know, for the greater good!
- davidgould 8y agoNot damn soon enough! Because, you know, for the greater good.
- epistasis 8y agoThe conservatives (meaning disliking change) on these city councils also tend to dislike public transit; they want to live like they imagined it in the 1970s with everybody driving their personal car on uncrossed freeways long distances between their homes, work, and commercial districts. Even their desire to stick it to the techies will not overcome their love of car-first, or sometimes car-only, policies.
- fpoling 8y agoBosch in Germany used to have a big research facility dedicated to Diesel engines and their control systems. They stopped that and converted the facility to research and develop various control systems for electrical cars. So Diesel days are numbered indeed.
- eksemplar 8y agoDiesel is dying in Europe because you can’t enter a lot of cities in an older diesel car. In a few years it’ll be any diesel car. Green tech is a universal political point in Europe, at least north, Western Europe, and car companies aren’t stupid. It takes time to alter production, but they are getting there, as demands keep increasing. In Norway half the cars sold are electric. I personally own a petrol car, but I doubt I’ll replace it with a fossil.
- John_KZ 8y agoDiesel's days depend purely on politics. I was shocked to see public opinion change overnight on this issue because some German auto manufacturer cheated on their tests. This should motivate people to fight corruption, not fuels. Properly maintained EURO4+ vehicles are just fine. Yes, they product some more particulates and NOx, but if you look up the specifics in absolute values, the difference is essentially trivial. Replacing diesel with gasoline in commercial vehicles will increase transportation prices at least 30-40%, my guess would be much higher. It simply won't happen. Commercial electric vehicles are a dream (or a financial nightmare, depending on your perspective) at this point. Are diesel's days limited in light personal transport vehicles? Maybe, depending on politics. Are trucks, buses etc going electric anytime soon? Not really. For public transport, most people and most city councils will choose to improve their services (like more routes, more buses per line etc) and not to shrink just to use the latest bus-sized gadget.
- Arbalest 8y agoYou've highlighted an important point: The long tail of old technology. If I recall, for some city in Europe, it was businesses running old vehicles that were crying out for exceptions on the rules to ban the older diesel vehicles. The vehicles which are driving basically all day. Not great policy if they are granting all those exceptions.
- golemiprague 8y agoWhy buses in America always look like they were designed 20 years ago?
- tehabe 8y agoBYD busses don't look anything special, yes they are electric but you can get those from a lot of manufacturers. Also they are only partially low floor. More interesting is the Aptis by Alstom, still more or less a prototype but its design is really something innovative because it increases the room in the bus and it is 100% low floor.
- Dowwie 8y agoI've lived in the New York City metropolitan area, New Jersey, for most of my life. Buses play a major role here for public transportation. There are bus routes to NYC from all over New Jersey, of public and private chartered variety. One of the major benefits of these buses is that they offer affordable transportation, subsidized by taxes. Replacing these buses with electric ones in an economically viable way is what will keep electric fleet off the roads for a long time yet. While I wish that every diesel bus on the road would be replaced immediately by an electric one, I see this taking at least another 20 years.
- cascom 8y agoThe adoption of electric busses over CNG doesn’t make a whole lot sense to me? In a perfect world going electric would be great - but it seems like CNG offers the right balance of lower fuel cost and cleaner emissions while maintaining fleet efficiency (no long charge times). Would love to hear why electric buses actually have the lead over CNG if you take out the pure “feel good” factor of electric