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"Moving towards dictatorship" is an understatement imho. They're already there.

notbeevil1 8y ago
"already there" is an understatement imho. XiBaozi is worse than Hitler.
graeme 8y ago
Interpreted charitably, they may have been referencing the idea that growth would gradually move China in the direction of democracy. Instead, they're going in the reverse direction on the scale.
3pt14159 8y ago
Eh. I dunno. There should be a word for it that isn't dictatorship. There is an order-ness and a certain degree of pragmatism and restraint that the Chinese state has that most dictatorships do not. They sort of bend with the wind at times and it vents the outrage. They allow the intelligent to get access to the real internet without letting the bulk of their population talk unhindered. The way they do the Communist party is really smart too. They take the top high school students and successful academics / business people. So it naturally turns into the area that smart people solve problems, instead of turning them against the state. I agree that AI-powered surveillance is worrying, but it's not going to look like Stalin. It's going to look like something completely different.
- adventured 8y ago
  > I agree that AI-powered surveillance is worrying, but it's not going to look like Stalin. It's going to look like something completely different. China is in the hands of Xi now. So that entirely depends on what he's willing to do to try to retain power, and what he regards as necessary to pursue his vision. Dictators get increasingly paranoid and erratic with time, with few exceptions in the last several hundred years. Erdogan is the latest example of a dictator losing his mind and running a country into the ground to preserve his power and pursue his vision. That's in part because the people get tired of a leader over time, even in the best of circumstances. The only choice to maintain the position Xi has is to crack down more and more on the population, restrict them further and further. Eventually every squeak is perceived as a threat. The real question is whether Xi leads them back to more Mao-like hyper authoritarian policies, to ensure his dictatorship and his vision for China. I'm skeptical it can end any other way, the path seems to have already been decided. The people that say China is different, are ignoring that this is no longer Deng's China, there has been a fundamental recent change in where they're going. China had to either continue liberalizing, or had to turn back, you can only float inbetween for so long. They chose (both Xi and the party that has handed him the reins).
  - lazerpants 8y ago
    It's difficult to tell, given that China is a dictatorship, but there are some in the party and state that are perhaps opposed to Xi seizing so much power. Good article on this: https://www.economist.com/china/2018/08/11/how-to-read-summer-grumbles-about-chinas-swaggering-leader https://www.economist.com/china/2018/08/11/how-to-read-summe...
    - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
      China is more of an authoritarian aristocracy at this point ruled by a few really powerful red families. Xi’s is only one such family, the others have power and will often duke it out in various factions. I still don’t think Xi is as powerful as even Jiang Zemin was, he definitely isn’t at Deng’s level yet.
      - woodandsteel 8y ago
        If Xi is not very powerful, then how was he able to do away with the two-term limit?

"already there" is an understatement imho. XiBaozi is worse than Hitler.

Interpreted charitably, they may have been referencing the idea that growth would gradually move China in the direction of democracy. Instead, they're going in the reverse direction on the scale.

3pt14159 8y ago

Eh. I dunno. There should be a word for it that isn't dictatorship. There is an order-ness and a certain degree of pragmatism and restraint that the Chinese state has that most dictatorships do not. They sort of bend with the wind at times and it vents the outrage. They allow the intelligent to get access to the real internet without letting the bulk of their population talk unhindered. The way they do the Communist party is really smart too. They take the top high school students and successful academics / business people. So it naturally turns into the area that smart people solve problems, instead of turning them against the state. I agree that AI-powered surveillance is worrying, but it's not going to look like Stalin. It's going to look like something completely different.

adventured 8y ago
> I agree that AI-powered surveillance is worrying, but it's not going to look like Stalin. It's going to look like something completely different. China is in the hands of Xi now. So that entirely depends on what he's willing to do to try to retain power, and what he regards as necessary to pursue his vision. Dictators get increasingly paranoid and erratic with time, with few exceptions in the last several hundred years. Erdogan is the latest example of a dictator losing his mind and running a country into the ground to preserve his power and pursue his vision. That's in part because the people get tired of a leader over time, even in the best of circumstances. The only choice to maintain the position Xi has is to crack down more and more on the population, restrict them further and further. Eventually every squeak is perceived as a threat. The real question is whether Xi leads them back to more Mao-like hyper authoritarian policies, to ensure his dictatorship and his vision for China. I'm skeptical it can end any other way, the path seems to have already been decided. The people that say China is different, are ignoring that this is no longer Deng's China, there has been a fundamental recent change in where they're going. China had to either continue liberalizing, or had to turn back, you can only float inbetween for so long. They chose (both Xi and the party that has handed him the reins).
- lazerpants 8y ago
  It's difficult to tell, given that China is a dictatorship, but there are some in the party and state that are perhaps opposed to Xi seizing so much power. Good article on this: https://www.economist.com/china/2018/08/11/how-to-read-summer-grumbles-about-chinas-swaggering-leader https://www.economist.com/china/2018/08/11/how-to-read-summe...
  - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
    China is more of an authoritarian aristocracy at this point ruled by a few really powerful red families. Xi’s is only one such family, the others have power and will often duke it out in various factions. I still don’t think Xi is as powerful as even Jiang Zemin was, he definitely isn’t at Deng’s level yet.
    - woodandsteel 8y ago
      If Xi is not very powerful, then how was he able to do away with the two-term limit?