8 ms·

24% of Tesla Model 3 orders have been canceled, analyst says

63 points by x43b 8y ago

bilal4hmed 8y ago
$60000 is a lot to pay for a $35000 car. The insides look at like a nissan or a honda. At $60k the benz and audi do feel luxury as compared to this.
- ebikelaw 8y ago
  The inside of a Model 3 is not anywhere near as nice as the inside of any other expensive car. For $40k at an Acura dealer you will get the top-of-the-line interior with fancy stitching on the seats, an actual instrument package, Android Auto and CarPlay, etc. And that's at a price point where Tesla cars are currently not even available.
  - martythemaniak 8y ago
    > an actual instrument package What does that mean? > Android Auto and CarPlay You think that's a feature worth shelling out for, I think it's a crutch.
    - ebikelaw 8y ago
      >> an actual instrument package > What does that mean? It means the speedometer is in front of the driver where it belongs. >> Android Auto and CarPlay > You think that's a feature worth shelling out for, I think it's a crutch. On the Internet, opinions are pretty much free of charge, of course. Android Auto voice control is dramatically better than the voice control that comes in a Model 3, and Android Auto pre-caches map tiles along your route (and anywhere else you specify) while the software in the Model 3 never preloads anything so it's pretty much always showing blank tiles when in an area of no mobile coverage. Also when Tesla goes out of business or for any other reason decides to stop supporting and paying for the mobile data connection in the Model 3 owners are going to wish they had something more like AA or CarPlay that's upgradeable separately from the vehicle.
- sabareesh 8y ago
  Real Luxury is the car drives for you, at least in the traffic but still with your attention. I know Autopilot is still on early stages
- askafriend 8y ago
  Luxury for me means a touchscreen that works, a media/navigation system that doesn't make me want to gouge my eyes out, a car that adapts to my preferences at every step of the way, evolves as technology evolves around it and an experience that was deliberately crafted from start to finish. Luxury for me does not mean fancy stitching, special leather, a mechanical clock on the dashboard for no reason, software that doesn't get updated, exquisite wood grain in random places, lots of knobs, shiny trims, "dealership experience", or 4 years of free oil changes. I think you'll see the definition of luxury change as our concept of mobility changes. Traditional markers of luxury won't matter anymore and that will leave incumbents who have traditional luxury as their core competence in a weird place.
  - foepys 8y ago
    I'm not convinced that a single, large touchscreen is actually good UX for a car. Knobs make me feel way safer while driving because they give be instant feedback on my selected setting by either clicking or snapping into position. I don't want to take my eyes of the road to change my AC setting, to enable the rear window heating, or to change the radio channel. Before people now come around to tell me I can have both: there's limited space in a car for that. If you place everything too narrow, you won't gain anything in terms of safety.
    - askafriend 8y ago
      I think you have to drive one for a weekend to truly be the judge. Your argument is the kind of argument people made about tactile keyboards when iPhone first came out with a completely software one. On the surface, it was a valid concern - physical keyboards were simply far better input devices than software based ones when considered in isolation. However keyboards are part of a system, and in the system the physical keyboard was a local maxima. For the system to grow past that local maxima, it had to ditch the physical keyboard. Yes there are tradeoffs to make, but it's a different set of tradeoffs - ones that we can adapt around given a better future for the system as a whole. That being said, you really have to live with it for a weekend before being able to judge it in full. I think people are right - purpose built physical buttons and switches will always be superior at some level to software buttons, especially when driving. However, it's worth considering if there is the promise of a better future for the whole system by going down the 100% software route. Maybe it's a bit ahead of its time, but consider a semi-autonomous future where drivers mostly only assist driving and spend 90% of their time free to do other things (1). In the mean time Tesla gets better at delivering software updates to hundreds of thousands of cars in the wild, improving their software processes as a competitive advantage. Other car companies simply aren't doing this. In the future, every car company will need to do this and learn to get good at doing it. (1) If you've tried Autopilot, you know it's good enough that engaging with the touch screen for extended periods is no problem at all.
kuro68k 8y ago
The Model 3 is looking a bit over priced now, with cars like the Kona and coming Lead 64 offering similar features, performance and better range for less money.
- mwilliaams 8y ago
  But are the manufacturers as known and reputable as Tesla?
  - bilal4hmed 8y ago
    The Kona is by Hyundai, so id say yes
    - ryanhuff 8y ago
      GM already sells an EV (Bolt), so there are less expensive options out their today. Nothing matches the Model 3's combination of performance, price, styling, and driving experience.
- ricardobeat 8y ago
  Performance? Not even close. The Kona will have a time of 9.7s for 0-100km/h, vs 5.1s for the Model 3. Much slower charging too. What is a Lead 64?
  - kuro68k 8y ago
    Kona confirmed for 7.4 0-100.
- martythemaniak 8y ago
  1. They are not available. Specs and pricing haven't been revealed. 2. They have inferior performance. 3. They match the range of the Short Range Model 3.
patagonia 8y ago
Said another way, Tesla still has existing orders that will keep it busy for a couple years, by which time the Model 3 line will be profitable. Which is to say, Tesla will have succeeded in creating a mass market electric vehicle and turning a profit while doing so, thus changing the landscape to one in which electric vehicles are in some instances preferred to internal combustion vehicles, and so competitors follow suit. Thus accomplishing Tesla’s stated goal of: “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible”. Which is jaw dropping. But everyone is still jumping on the schadenfreuden wagon, why idk. In other news. While you were sleeping SpaceX has a successful launch of one of their block 5 rockets. Oh and landed stage one on a moving target in the ocean. While in parallel developing a rocket to take people to mars. This is insane. And we should all enjoy it while it lasts. Because it’s not a given that these type of accomplishments happen any given day, year, or decade.
- microdrum 8y ago
  More and more I agree with this. Google and Facebook are boring monopolists. It makes sense that we enjoy their failures. But Tesla is a really amazing company. The media coverage makes more sense when you realize that most journalists are deeply unhappy people who are, internally, banging their heads against the wall as a result of never having learned any practical skills. They viscerally hate the idea of progress, because by definition they will not be part of progress. They much prefer that the world be stuck.
  - nodesocket 8y ago
    It's actually more simple than that, the media likes to vilify successful and wealthy people because somehow in the last couple of years Marxism and anti-capitalism spread like a wildfire throughout media and academia. When Elon pushed back about false reporting and abhorrent standards he wacked the hornet's nest with a stick.
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      Please don’t compare Musk to useless wealthy people. He’s invested almost his entire net worth in space travel and electric vehicles. Least terrible billionaire (no sleight to Buffet and Gates though, solid philanthropy effort of their part).
guard0g 8y ago
I cancelled, but only because I want an extended battery version with autopilot. I'm sure others cancelled their orders for the base version to speed up delivery.
- dayaz36 8y ago
  You have it backwards. They're only selling the long range version right now. Standard range won't be out till next year
  - i_cant_speel 8y ago
    It sounds like he cancelled the standard range order to order the long range one.
    - dkoston 8y ago
      There is no distinction in the reservation. When your reservation becomes available, you can configure any “trim” that is currently available. That was the long range first, and now long range and performance.
- omarforgotpwd 8y ago
  lol the extended battery is the only version they're producing right now. Just got mine two months ago. you dun goofed, it's amazing. But I heard the waiting list for new orders is only 2 - 5 months.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
usermac 8y ago
The more I looked at the 3 the more I saw its less than desirable points. I really wanted to like it.
- ricardobeat 8y ago
  Care to expand?
- ryanhuff 8y ago
  Such as? After having driven one for 6 weeks now, there isn't much not to like.
  - jonathankoren 8y ago
    I think the touch screen on the 3 looks like someone glued an aftermarket stand to the dash, and stuck a crappy android tablet in it. Tesla interiors are subpar when compared to other luxury manufactures, and the infotainment system sucks just as hard as everyone else, but with more knockoffs (Slacker Radio). Just give me Apple CarPlay, and be done with it.
- sabareesh 8y ago
  Never thought that I would love a car but .. Love story continues. The car is out of world.
- mbreese 8y ago
  I was in the same boat. I’m one of the 24% — not that I necessarily believe that number, but it seems reasonable. I ended up getting the reservation email the same day I bought a different car. I’m sure the 3 drives great, but the idea of another 4-5 month wait (which would have probably have been 6-8 months and pushed out past the tax break) wasn’t appealing. I’ll definitely look at it in the future, but the combination of not being able to even sit in one (no demo available at my local Tesla), let alone test drive one, with the wait just wasn’t worth the risk. But for me the final thing that made me cancel my day one reservation was all of the production hell talk. I don’t want a car produced in an assembly line that has problems. The multiple line setups (the tent???), the varied production speeds, removing tests and welds that at one point seemed essential... That’s not a good way to ensure consistency. Hell, how much did they have to push (and how much got missed) to make their vaunted 5k/week goal? Maybe in 2-3 years they will have things streamlined enough to get past these issues. But for now, I didn’t to be a guinea pig.
AndrewKemendo 8y ago
according to Needham & Co. analyst Rajvindra Gill. Tesla disputes that" I'm trying to find some substantiation for the claim but I'm not finding anything. The closest I see is from BI that there was a "note to clients." The claim is falsifiable so ostensibly this analyst has information other people don't have somehow. I'd sure like these analysts to show their work, when they do these "projections." The news media and traders seem to respond to them, so there must be something to it, but I'm incredulous generally. Anyone have any insight on whether these analysts can actually substantiate their projections? [1] http://uk.businessinsider.com/10-things-european-markets-july-20-2018-7?IR=T http://uk.businessinsider.com/10-things-european-markets-jul...
- gamblor956 8y ago
  Tesla could easily refute the numbers by revealing actual cancellation numbers. The fact that they haven't, legally speaking (referring to SEC disclosure requirements), means the numbers are on point (but might have different significant if explained in a different context).
  - InTheArena 8y ago
    Tesla has, in fact refuted it in a a statement that they had a net increase in orders of model 5s last week. The authors just refused to post it, which is a pretty common hi job recently. When Matt “Trump is paying him how much” Drudge starts to run articles like this on the Drudge Report, you know the fix is in.
  - AndrewKemendo 8y ago
    There's too many dependencies in your conjecture to make a strong argument for that being the proof that the numbers are correct. If Tesla executives don't care about this guy or his projections then they wouldn't think it's worth their effort to respond. It seems like the finance world's version of Twitter trolls.
twblalock 8y ago
With all the hype around the original preorder, I suspect a lot of people who preordered were not serious anyway, or fell victim to wishful thinking about their ability to afford the car. So in any case, even without the production delays, a higher than normal rate of cancellations would not be surprising.
_ph_ 8y ago
Besides that I wonder how accurate the claim of the cancelled orders is, Tesla at the beginning of the month clearly stated that they had about 420k reservations. Whatever the number of cancelled reservations are, it seems that the number of open reservations is quite stable. It is not a surprise that there are quite a few cancellations. People might need a car more urgently, or just reconsidered. On the other side, of course people haven't stopped putting down reservations. And so far, Tesla has not marketed the car. This is just about to change, Tesla has prepared 100 Model 3 Performance to be set up at the Tesla stores for offering test drives for the first time, since the Model 3 came to market. That is certainly going to create more orders, as most people wouldn't place an order without a proper test drive.
tpae 8y ago
How can he be so certain of this? Analysis doesn't make it a fact, and even Tesla spokesperson is denying it..
- jonathankoren 8y ago
  Would you honestly believe a Tesla spokesperson? If these happened, seems like it would show up in a quarterly earnings call. Those things have to be somewhat trustworthy. Now if they don't deny the claims, then I'd worry a bit, no matter what the spin is.
rustcharm 8y ago
Many mainstream car companies, particularly GM with its all-electric Chevy Bolt have cars with roughly comparable specs to the Model 3 and you get get one today. The allure of getting something now instead of waiting surely contributes to some of these cancellations.
- ebikelaw 8y ago
  Yep. You can walk into any Chevy dealer nationwide right now and walk out in an hour with a Bolt for under $35k. There are 114 of them sitting in inventory within 25 miles of my house, according to Chevy's web site.
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    Telling that hundreds of thousands of people will wait for a Model 3 while Bolts sit on the lot.
    - ebikelaw 8y ago
      It certainly says a lot about marketing and mass psychology. But then again, anyone who will pre-order any kind of product is a self-identifying irrational economic actor. There's no accounting for them.
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        If humans were rational economic actors, we wouldn’t have exhaustive behavioral studies on how to nudge their decisions towards more positive outcomes.
    - rustcharm 8y ago
      Well, with all the cancellations, perhaps some of them are thinking this through.
jonathankoren 8y ago
I've been considering a Tesla, but I can't pull the trigger. The 3 looks boring S knockoff, and have been plagued with quality issues. Supposedly the issues are more under control now, but the early 3s in the parking lot at work have crooked body panels. It turned me off. I do like that Tesla made an electric car that doesn't look stupid and doesn't suck. For far too long all that existedd were citicars[0] and NEVs[1]. Also, the diamond lane sticker is very seductive. The thing that I can't stand is the interior. It's so empty. The infotainment sucks just as hard as legacy manufacturers (knockoff Pandora, shitty maps, stupid apps like Paint), doesn't have any gadgets (e.g. blindspot detection), and then the standout features features are gimmicks. An autodrive that falls in the uncanny valley, a self park that required to me to hug bumpers on a crowded parking lot, and summon, which is essentially a three four line macro (although, that is something). Ultimately, the car is disappointing. I guess I'll just wait and get a Porsche Taycan[2], which is ironic because it wouldn't exist without Tesla. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhood_Electric_Vehicle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhood_Electric_Vehicle [2] https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/a12778510/2020-porsche-mission-e-news-photos-price-release/ https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/a12778510/...
samnwa 8y ago
I have been driving a Model 3 since for 3 months now and it's the most amazing car I have ever had. I switched from a BMW 3 series, which is a no contest comparison. The autopilot is the killer app for driving long distances on the freeway especially in traffic. I let a friend drive for a while and then, after driving home in his own car, said 'I feel like I just saw a washing machine and now I have to wash my clothes by hand.'
- masonic 8y ago
  BMW's target market is driving enthusiasts. You prefer to let the car do the driving, so it makes sense that you prefer the Tesla.
solarkraft 8y ago
This rate is extraordinarily low.
woodandsteel 8y ago
This guy Gill says Tesla is going to go bankrupt because no one wants to buy its cars, and he says it is going to go bankrupt because it won't be able to produce cars fast enough to meet demand. I wonder how much of his total fortune he has bet on shorting Tesla stock. It sounds like he is getting pretty desperate.

63 points by x43b 8y ago

$60000 is a lot to pay for a $35000 car. The insides look at like a nissan or a honda. At $60k the benz and audi do feel luxury as compared to this.

ebikelaw 8y ago
The inside of a Model 3 is not anywhere near as nice as the inside of any other expensive car. For $40k at an Acura dealer you will get the top-of-the-line interior with fancy stitching on the seats, an actual instrument package, Android Auto and CarPlay, etc. And that's at a price point where Tesla cars are currently not even available.
- martythemaniak 8y ago
  > an actual instrument package What does that mean? > Android Auto and CarPlay You think that's a feature worth shelling out for, I think it's a crutch.
  - ebikelaw 8y ago
    >> an actual instrument package > What does that mean? It means the speedometer is in front of the driver where it belongs. >> Android Auto and CarPlay > You think that's a feature worth shelling out for, I think it's a crutch. On the Internet, opinions are pretty much free of charge, of course. Android Auto voice control is dramatically better than the voice control that comes in a Model 3, and Android Auto pre-caches map tiles along your route (and anywhere else you specify) while the software in the Model 3 never preloads anything so it's pretty much always showing blank tiles when in an area of no mobile coverage. Also when Tesla goes out of business or for any other reason decides to stop supporting and paying for the mobile data connection in the Model 3 owners are going to wish they had something more like AA or CarPlay that's upgradeable separately from the vehicle.
sabareesh 8y ago
Real Luxury is the car drives for you, at least in the traffic but still with your attention. I know Autopilot is still on early stages
askafriend 8y ago
Luxury for me means a touchscreen that works, a media/navigation system that doesn't make me want to gouge my eyes out, a car that adapts to my preferences at every step of the way, evolves as technology evolves around it and an experience that was deliberately crafted from start to finish. Luxury for me does not mean fancy stitching, special leather, a mechanical clock on the dashboard for no reason, software that doesn't get updated, exquisite wood grain in random places, lots of knobs, shiny trims, "dealership experience", or 4 years of free oil changes. I think you'll see the definition of luxury change as our concept of mobility changes. Traditional markers of luxury won't matter anymore and that will leave incumbents who have traditional luxury as their core competence in a weird place.
- foepys 8y ago
  I'm not convinced that a single, large touchscreen is actually good UX for a car. Knobs make me feel way safer while driving because they give be instant feedback on my selected setting by either clicking or snapping into position. I don't want to take my eyes of the road to change my AC setting, to enable the rear window heating, or to change the radio channel. Before people now come around to tell me I can have both: there's limited space in a car for that. If you place everything too narrow, you won't gain anything in terms of safety.
  - askafriend 8y ago
    I think you have to drive one for a weekend to truly be the judge. Your argument is the kind of argument people made about tactile keyboards when iPhone first came out with a completely software one. On the surface, it was a valid concern - physical keyboards were simply far better input devices than software based ones when considered in isolation. However keyboards are part of a system, and in the system the physical keyboard was a local maxima. For the system to grow past that local maxima, it had to ditch the physical keyboard. Yes there are tradeoffs to make, but it's a different set of tradeoffs - ones that we can adapt around given a better future for the system as a whole. That being said, you really have to live with it for a weekend before being able to judge it in full. I think people are right - purpose built physical buttons and switches will always be superior at some level to software buttons, especially when driving. However, it's worth considering if there is the promise of a better future for the whole system by going down the 100% software route. Maybe it's a bit ahead of its time, but consider a semi-autonomous future where drivers mostly only assist driving and spend 90% of their time free to do other things (1). In the mean time Tesla gets better at delivering software updates to hundreds of thousands of cars in the wild, improving their software processes as a competitive advantage. Other car companies simply aren't doing this. In the future, every car company will need to do this and learn to get good at doing it. (1) If you've tried Autopilot, you know it's good enough that engaging with the touch screen for extended periods is no problem at all.

kuro68k 8y ago

The Model 3 is looking a bit over priced now, with cars like the Kona and coming Lead 64 offering similar features, performance and better range for less money.

mwilliaams 8y ago
But are the manufacturers as known and reputable as Tesla?
- bilal4hmed 8y ago
  The Kona is by Hyundai, so id say yes
  - ryanhuff 8y ago
    GM already sells an EV (Bolt), so there are less expensive options out their today. Nothing matches the Model 3's combination of performance, price, styling, and driving experience.
ricardobeat 8y ago
Performance? Not even close. The Kona will have a time of 9.7s for 0-100km/h, vs 5.1s for the Model 3. Much slower charging too. What is a Lead 64?
- kuro68k 8y ago
  Kona confirmed for 7.4 0-100.
martythemaniak 8y ago
1. They are not available. Specs and pricing haven't been revealed. 2. They have inferior performance. 3. They match the range of the Short Range Model 3.

patagonia 8y ago

Said another way, Tesla still has existing orders that will keep it busy for a couple years, by which time the Model 3 line will be profitable. Which is to say, Tesla will have succeeded in creating a mass market electric vehicle and turning a profit while doing so, thus changing the landscape to one in which electric vehicles are in some instances preferred to internal combustion vehicles, and so competitors follow suit. Thus accomplishing Tesla’s stated goal of: “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible”. Which is jaw dropping. But everyone is still jumping on the schadenfreuden wagon, why idk. In other news. While you were sleeping SpaceX has a successful launch of one of their block 5 rockets. Oh and landed stage one on a moving target in the ocean. While in parallel developing a rocket to take people to mars. This is insane. And we should all enjoy it while it lasts. Because it’s not a given that these type of accomplishments happen any given day, year, or decade.

microdrum 8y ago
More and more I agree with this. Google and Facebook are boring monopolists. It makes sense that we enjoy their failures. But Tesla is a really amazing company. The media coverage makes more sense when you realize that most journalists are deeply unhappy people who are, internally, banging their heads against the wall as a result of never having learned any practical skills. They viscerally hate the idea of progress, because by definition they will not be part of progress. They much prefer that the world be stuck.
- nodesocket 8y ago
  It's actually more simple than that, the media likes to vilify successful and wealthy people because somehow in the last couple of years Marxism and anti-capitalism spread like a wildfire throughout media and academia. When Elon pushed back about false reporting and abhorrent standards he wacked the hornet's nest with a stick.
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    Please don’t compare Musk to useless wealthy people. He’s invested almost his entire net worth in space travel and electric vehicles. Least terrible billionaire (no sleight to Buffet and Gates though, solid philanthropy effort of their part).

guard0g 8y ago

I cancelled, but only because I want an extended battery version with autopilot. I'm sure others cancelled their orders for the base version to speed up delivery.

dayaz36 8y ago
You have it backwards. They're only selling the long range version right now. Standard range won't be out till next year
- i_cant_speel 8y ago
  It sounds like he cancelled the standard range order to order the long range one.
  - dkoston 8y ago
    There is no distinction in the reservation. When your reservation becomes available, you can configure any “trim” that is currently available. That was the long range first, and now long range and performance.
omarforgotpwd 8y ago
lol the extended battery is the only version they're producing right now. Just got mine two months ago. you dun goofed, it's amazing. But I heard the waiting list for new orders is only 2 - 5 months.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]

usermac 8y ago

The more I looked at the 3 the more I saw its less than desirable points. I really wanted to like it.

ricardobeat 8y ago
Care to expand?
ryanhuff 8y ago
Such as? After having driven one for 6 weeks now, there isn't much not to like.
- jonathankoren 8y ago
  I think the touch screen on the 3 looks like someone glued an aftermarket stand to the dash, and stuck a crappy android tablet in it. Tesla interiors are subpar when compared to other luxury manufactures, and the infotainment system sucks just as hard as everyone else, but with more knockoffs (Slacker Radio). Just give me Apple CarPlay, and be done with it.
sabareesh 8y ago
Never thought that I would love a car but .. Love story continues. The car is out of world.
mbreese 8y ago
I was in the same boat. I’m one of the 24% — not that I necessarily believe that number, but it seems reasonable. I ended up getting the reservation email the same day I bought a different car. I’m sure the 3 drives great, but the idea of another 4-5 month wait (which would have probably have been 6-8 months and pushed out past the tax break) wasn’t appealing. I’ll definitely look at it in the future, but the combination of not being able to even sit in one (no demo available at my local Tesla), let alone test drive one, with the wait just wasn’t worth the risk. But for me the final thing that made me cancel my day one reservation was all of the production hell talk. I don’t want a car produced in an assembly line that has problems. The multiple line setups (the tent???), the varied production speeds, removing tests and welds that at one point seemed essential... That’s not a good way to ensure consistency. Hell, how much did they have to push (and how much got missed) to make their vaunted 5k/week goal? Maybe in 2-3 years they will have things streamlined enough to get past these issues. But for now, I didn’t to be a guinea pig.

AndrewKemendo 8y ago

according to Needham & Co. analyst Rajvindra Gill. Tesla disputes that" I'm trying to find some substantiation for the claim but I'm not finding anything. The closest I see is from BI that there was a "note to clients." The claim is falsifiable so ostensibly this analyst has information other people don't have somehow. I'd sure like these analysts to show their work, when they do these "projections." The news media and traders seem to respond to them, so there must be something to it, but I'm incredulous generally. Anyone have any insight on whether these analysts can actually substantiate their projections? [1] http://uk.businessinsider.com/10-things-european-markets-july-20-2018-7?IR=T http://uk.businessinsider.com/10-things-european-markets-jul...

gamblor956 8y ago
Tesla could easily refute the numbers by revealing actual cancellation numbers. The fact that they haven't, legally speaking (referring to SEC disclosure requirements), means the numbers are on point (but might have different significant if explained in a different context).
- InTheArena 8y ago
  Tesla has, in fact refuted it in a a statement that they had a net increase in orders of model 5s last week. The authors just refused to post it, which is a pretty common hi job recently. When Matt “Trump is paying him how much” Drudge starts to run articles like this on the Drudge Report, you know the fix is in.
- AndrewKemendo 8y ago
  There's too many dependencies in your conjecture to make a strong argument for that being the proof that the numbers are correct. If Tesla executives don't care about this guy or his projections then they wouldn't think it's worth their effort to respond. It seems like the finance world's version of Twitter trolls.

twblalock 8y ago

With all the hype around the original preorder, I suspect a lot of people who preordered were not serious anyway, or fell victim to wishful thinking about their ability to afford the car. So in any case, even without the production delays, a higher than normal rate of cancellations would not be surprising.

_ph_ 8y ago

Besides that I wonder how accurate the claim of the cancelled orders is, Tesla at the beginning of the month clearly stated that they had about 420k reservations. Whatever the number of cancelled reservations are, it seems that the number of open reservations is quite stable. It is not a surprise that there are quite a few cancellations. People might need a car more urgently, or just reconsidered. On the other side, of course people haven't stopped putting down reservations. And so far, Tesla has not marketed the car. This is just about to change, Tesla has prepared 100 Model 3 Performance to be set up at the Tesla stores for offering test drives for the first time, since the Model 3 came to market. That is certainly going to create more orders, as most people wouldn't place an order without a proper test drive.

tpae 8y ago

How can he be so certain of this? Analysis doesn't make it a fact, and even Tesla spokesperson is denying it..

jonathankoren 8y ago
Would you honestly believe a Tesla spokesperson? If these happened, seems like it would show up in a quarterly earnings call. Those things have to be somewhat trustworthy. Now if they don't deny the claims, then I'd worry a bit, no matter what the spin is.

rustcharm 8y ago

Many mainstream car companies, particularly GM with its all-electric Chevy Bolt have cars with roughly comparable specs to the Model 3 and you get get one today. The allure of getting something now instead of waiting surely contributes to some of these cancellations.

ebikelaw 8y ago
Yep. You can walk into any Chevy dealer nationwide right now and walk out in an hour with a Bolt for under $35k. There are 114 of them sitting in inventory within 25 miles of my house, according to Chevy's web site.
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  Telling that hundreds of thousands of people will wait for a Model 3 while Bolts sit on the lot.
  - ebikelaw 8y ago
    It certainly says a lot about marketing and mass psychology. But then again, anyone who will pre-order any kind of product is a self-identifying irrational economic actor. There's no accounting for them.
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      If humans were rational economic actors, we wouldn’t have exhaustive behavioral studies on how to nudge their decisions towards more positive outcomes.
  - rustcharm 8y ago
    Well, with all the cancellations, perhaps some of them are thinking this through.

jonathankoren 8y ago

I've been considering a Tesla, but I can't pull the trigger. The 3 looks boring S knockoff, and have been plagued with quality issues. Supposedly the issues are more under control now, but the early 3s in the parking lot at work have crooked body panels. It turned me off. I do like that Tesla made an electric car that doesn't look stupid and doesn't suck. For far too long all that existedd were citicars[0] and NEVs[1]. Also, the diamond lane sticker is very seductive. The thing that I can't stand is the interior. It's so empty. The infotainment sucks just as hard as legacy manufacturers (knockoff Pandora, shitty maps, stupid apps like Paint), doesn't have any gadgets (e.g. blindspot detection), and then the standout features features are gimmicks. An autodrive that falls in the uncanny valley, a self park that required to me to hug bumpers on a crowded parking lot, and summon, which is essentially a three four line macro (although, that is something). Ultimately, the car is disappointing. I guess I'll just wait and get a Porsche Taycan[2], which is ironic because it wouldn't exist without Tesla. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhood_Electric_Vehicle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhood_Electric_Vehicle [2] https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/a12778510/2020-porsche-mission-e-news-photos-price-release/ https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/a12778510/...

samnwa 8y ago

I have been driving a Model 3 since for 3 months now and it's the most amazing car I have ever had. I switched from a BMW 3 series, which is a no contest comparison. The autopilot is the killer app for driving long distances on the freeway especially in traffic. I let a friend drive for a while and then, after driving home in his own car, said 'I feel like I just saw a washing machine and now I have to wash my clothes by hand.'

masonic 8y ago
BMW's target market is driving enthusiasts. You prefer to let the car do the driving, so it makes sense that you prefer the Tesla.

solarkraft 8y ago

This rate is extraordinarily low.

woodandsteel 8y ago

This guy Gill says Tesla is going to go bankrupt because no one wants to buy its cars, and he says it is going to go bankrupt because it won't be able to produce cars fast enough to meet demand. I wonder how much of his total fortune he has bet on shorting Tesla stock. It sounds like he is getting pretty desperate.