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With the appearance of the "duck curve", utility providers and customers are going have to reckon with the fact that a kWh of solar electricity at the noon hour

With the appearance of the "duck curve", utility providers and customers are going have to reckon with the fact that a kWh of solar electricity at the noon hour is not worth the same as a kWh of solar electricity at 5pm. So long, dinosaur coal plants. My lungs are looking forward to solar eating the rest of your lunch.

adventured 8y ago
> So long, dinosaur coal plants. My lungs are looking forward to solar eating the rest of your lunch. Absolutely. The coal industry, like any industry, will obviously attempt to hang on as long as it can. However the US is down to a point where there are only ~50,000 coal mining jobs left (vs 175,000 in 1985). Solar, wind and natural gas can easily replace those. There's no way coal pulls out of this decline (EIA first quarter updated figures): https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2018.03.20/main.png https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2018.03.20/main.png
- Gibbon1 8y ago
  It's not really about coal at this point the war is between solar/wind and natural gas.
  - adventured 8y ago
    While I agree with that sentiment, when over a quarter of US electricity generation is derived from coal, it's still clearly about competing with coal to drive it into the ground. Between the US, Europe, Japan, China and India, there's about $23 trillion in economic activity that depends on coal. Certainly all the generation growth and replacement going forward is contained in that war between renewables and NG.
    - pjc50 8y ago
      > competing with coal to drive it into the ground. Good choice of words, in that what we need to do with both coal and oil is leave it in the ground; which means that the people who've invested in its extraction need to be overcome somehow. Whether that's buying them out, making it uneconomic, or something more coercive.
    - Gibbon1 8y ago
      I think my point is the economics and uncertainty for coal is so bad now it'll disappear even with idiots like the Trump administration trying to subsidize it. Coal usage in the US is down 1/3 in ten years and that's going to accelerate.
- gm-conspiracy 8y ago
  I see two to three coal trains a day come through my town, with at least 40 hopper cars of coal. The coal is still going somewhere. I assume overseas, but unfortunately (in this instance), as people of earth, we all share the same atmosphere.
  - rsynnott 8y ago
    Assuming you live in the US, the US doesn't export much coal. It's going to remaining coal plants, probably. But these will eventually be decommissioned, and it's highly unlikely that new ones will be built.
    - philipkglass 8y ago
      US producers are trying to partially compensate for declining domestic demand with exports through new export facilities in California and Washington. Unfortunately, exporters may be able to force facility approvals through against local and state wishes: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oakland-port-coal-20180515-story.html http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oakland-port-coal-2018... https://www.publicnewsservice.org/2018-05-15/energy-policy/6-states-join-fray-as-backers-attempt-to-revive-wash-coal-terminal/a62529-1 https://www.publicnewsservice.org/2018-05-15/energy-policy/6...
  - mikeash 8y ago
    Coal still makes up about a third of US electrical generation. It’s declining, but it will take a long time to disappear.
- IkmoIkmo 8y ago
  It'll take a little longer than you think. Further, you're referencing a coal job figure, which is meaningless in this context. Coal production in the US over the past decade was higher than ever, by quite a large margin too, it's just that humans are no longer necessary for much of it. I'm not a fan but these are the facts. Fortunately, production is now dropping worldwide, but it really is early days, it's still way up compared to 10, 20 or 30 years ago, and it certainly isn't because of renewables. It's a gas-driven change.
  - magicalist 8y ago
    > Coal production in the US over the past decade was higher than ever, by quite a large margin too No it wasn't. It peaked in 2008 and is down quite a bit since then. 2016 production dropped 18% over 2015 and was the lowest since 1979. And despite the current administrations best efforts, 2017 production increased ~6% over 2016.
ben_w 8y ago
Isn’t this a 75% solved problem, because power generation and use were already out of sync due to people not working at night and a significant fraction of power generation being fixed-output such as nuclear?
- 2sk21 8y ago
  Exactly - even in summer, I recall reading that utilities have been begging for power consumption.
  - agumonkey 8y ago
    With Power pack like products I also wonder if there's an opportunity to 'level wear' the energy demand programmatically.
    - ben_w 8y ago
      A less smart version already exists. In the UK, some domestic energy is supplied at different costs at different times of day. This is optional and typically used for heating, but means that night time energy is cheap compared to daytime energy.
      - agumonkey 8y ago
        of course, I got caught in my technological views, but the price ranges are made for this entirely
    - distances 8y ago
      Some areas in Europe do offer spot pricing (~hourly interval IIRC) for electricity, even for consumers. I don't have such a contract, so I'm not sure how good the pricing APIs are for autoscaling your consumption.
      - kasey_junk 8y ago
        Several utilities in the states offer hourly rates. Most use human behavior inputs (sms messages) to drive the changes but others actually deliver the spot prices via smart meters.
jerven 8y ago
A rather biased source for sure but last years first solar analyst day presentation had an interesting remark regarding the duck curve. See page 3 of http://investor.firstsolar.com/static-files/2c0866ad-c821-49f6-a212-bb3d9816db9d http://investor.firstsolar.com/static-files/2c0866ad-c821-49... But yes it is going to be harder and harder to compete with solar in a supply priced market.
- tomp 8y ago
  Is that file available anywhere else? I get "Access Denied".
  - jerven 8y ago
    It is the technology update from last (2017) first-solar analyst day. Page 4. Key part for the duck curve discussion is that there is a big duck curve on a low load day in May but no such duck curve on a high load day in August. Then they talk about how their solar is starting to be dispatchable (market wise) by curtailing production. I.e. if they commit to sell 80% of their production then 20% of it becomes available as dispatch able power. That only makes sense if the solar power is cheap enough. Which it is does in some situations in some markets.
- baud147258 8y ago
  There's no content on page 3...
  - jerven 8y ago
    Sorry page 4.
prolepunk 8y ago
Here's pie-in-the-sky idea, what about building high-voltage transmission lines across the continent? In the case of US, New York at 8PM would get electricity from California at 4PM. There would be some losses from transmitting power for such large distance, but shouldn't it be better than just wasting energy or storing energy even less efficiently?
- kfarr 8y ago
  Seems like it's not such a crazy (pie in sky) idea after all: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609766/how-to-get-wyoming-wind-to-california-and-cut-80-of-us-carbon-emissions/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609766/how-to-get-wyoming...
- sfsafsaf 8y ago
  Its not great. Even before solar the advantage of a cross continental TL were there (namely ironing out the demand curve, hydro storage, ect). To limit resistive losses you have to go to really high V -> massive pylons (there were some built behind the iron curtain). But you still have capacitive coupling (and reflections after the TL is larger than $\lambda$/10 -> You need to go to very low f or even DC But high V. DC is hard! and low f AC is massive. Ultimately it hasn't been done because it hasn't been worthwhile.
  - lutorm 8y ago
    HVDC is harder than AC transmission, but isn't it a solved problem? "In July 2016, ABB Group received a contract in China to build an ultrahigh-voltage direct-current (UHVDC) land link with a 1100 kV voltage, a 3,000 km (1,900 mi) length and 12 GW of power, setting world records for highest voltage, longest distance, and largest transmission capacity." (From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current)
  - asafira 8y ago
    Can you expend on some of these, or give a reference? Specifically, why does going to high voltage limit resistive losses? Why does really high V mean massive pylons? Why is low frequency AC massive?
twothamendment 8y ago
There is a coal powered plant in Eastern Montana that is having troubles. "Data processing and blockchain interests are the latest entities to court the ailing Hardin Generating Station, a 109-megawatt coal-fired power plant that is seeking a buyer to avoid closure." - https://www.apnews.com/6a577c7d0dc1488b9481d03685950e96 https://www.apnews.com/6a577c7d0dc1488b9481d03685950e96 Great, now we can watch train loads of coal go into a building and bitcoins come out! Yeah, that is the smell of progress.

adventured 8y ago

> So long, dinosaur coal plants. My lungs are looking forward to solar eating the rest of your lunch. Absolutely. The coal industry, like any industry, will obviously attempt to hang on as long as it can. However the US is down to a point where there are only ~50,000 coal mining jobs left (vs 175,000 in 1985). Solar, wind and natural gas can easily replace those. There's no way coal pulls out of this decline (EIA first quarter updated figures): https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2018.03.20/main.png https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2018.03.20/main.png

Gibbon1 8y ago
It's not really about coal at this point the war is between solar/wind and natural gas.
- adventured 8y ago
  While I agree with that sentiment, when over a quarter of US electricity generation is derived from coal, it's still clearly about competing with coal to drive it into the ground. Between the US, Europe, Japan, China and India, there's about $23 trillion in economic activity that depends on coal. Certainly all the generation growth and replacement going forward is contained in that war between renewables and NG.
  - pjc50 8y ago
    > competing with coal to drive it into the ground. Good choice of words, in that what we need to do with both coal and oil is leave it in the ground; which means that the people who've invested in its extraction need to be overcome somehow. Whether that's buying them out, making it uneconomic, or something more coercive.
  - Gibbon1 8y ago
    I think my point is the economics and uncertainty for coal is so bad now it'll disappear even with idiots like the Trump administration trying to subsidize it. Coal usage in the US is down 1/3 in ten years and that's going to accelerate.
gm-conspiracy 8y ago
I see two to three coal trains a day come through my town, with at least 40 hopper cars of coal. The coal is still going somewhere. I assume overseas, but unfortunately (in this instance), as people of earth, we all share the same atmosphere.
- rsynnott 8y ago
  Assuming you live in the US, the US doesn't export much coal. It's going to remaining coal plants, probably. But these will eventually be decommissioned, and it's highly unlikely that new ones will be built.
  - philipkglass 8y ago
    US producers are trying to partially compensate for declining domestic demand with exports through new export facilities in California and Washington. Unfortunately, exporters may be able to force facility approvals through against local and state wishes: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oakland-port-coal-20180515-story.html http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oakland-port-coal-2018... https://www.publicnewsservice.org/2018-05-15/energy-policy/6-states-join-fray-as-backers-attempt-to-revive-wash-coal-terminal/a62529-1 https://www.publicnewsservice.org/2018-05-15/energy-policy/6...
- mikeash 8y ago
  Coal still makes up about a third of US electrical generation. It’s declining, but it will take a long time to disappear.
IkmoIkmo 8y ago
It'll take a little longer than you think. Further, you're referencing a coal job figure, which is meaningless in this context. Coal production in the US over the past decade was higher than ever, by quite a large margin too, it's just that humans are no longer necessary for much of it. I'm not a fan but these are the facts. Fortunately, production is now dropping worldwide, but it really is early days, it's still way up compared to 10, 20 or 30 years ago, and it certainly isn't because of renewables. It's a gas-driven change.
- magicalist 8y ago
  > Coal production in the US over the past decade was higher than ever, by quite a large margin too No it wasn't. It peaked in 2008 and is down quite a bit since then. 2016 production dropped 18% over 2015 and was the lowest since 1979. And despite the current administrations best efforts, 2017 production increased ~6% over 2016.

ben_w 8y ago

Isn’t this a 75% solved problem, because power generation and use were already out of sync due to people not working at night and a significant fraction of power generation being fixed-output such as nuclear?

2sk21 8y ago
Exactly - even in summer, I recall reading that utilities have been begging for power consumption.
- agumonkey 8y ago
  With Power pack like products I also wonder if there's an opportunity to 'level wear' the energy demand programmatically.
  - ben_w 8y ago
    A less smart version already exists. In the UK, some domestic energy is supplied at different costs at different times of day. This is optional and typically used for heating, but means that night time energy is cheap compared to daytime energy.
    - agumonkey 8y ago
      of course, I got caught in my technological views, but the price ranges are made for this entirely
  - distances 8y ago
    Some areas in Europe do offer spot pricing (~hourly interval IIRC) for electricity, even for consumers. I don't have such a contract, so I'm not sure how good the pricing APIs are for autoscaling your consumption.
    - kasey_junk 8y ago
      Several utilities in the states offer hourly rates. Most use human behavior inputs (sms messages) to drive the changes but others actually deliver the spot prices via smart meters.

jerven 8y ago

A rather biased source for sure but last years first solar analyst day presentation had an interesting remark regarding the duck curve. See page 3 of http://investor.firstsolar.com/static-files/2c0866ad-c821-49f6-a212-bb3d9816db9d http://investor.firstsolar.com/static-files/2c0866ad-c821-49... But yes it is going to be harder and harder to compete with solar in a supply priced market.

tomp 8y ago
Is that file available anywhere else? I get "Access Denied".
- jerven 8y ago
  It is the technology update from last (2017) first-solar analyst day. Page 4. Key part for the duck curve discussion is that there is a big duck curve on a low load day in May but no such duck curve on a high load day in August. Then they talk about how their solar is starting to be dispatchable (market wise) by curtailing production. I.e. if they commit to sell 80% of their production then 20% of it becomes available as dispatch able power. That only makes sense if the solar power is cheap enough. Which it is does in some situations in some markets.
baud147258 8y ago
There's no content on page 3...
- jerven 8y ago
  Sorry page 4.

prolepunk 8y ago

Here's pie-in-the-sky idea, what about building high-voltage transmission lines across the continent? In the case of US, New York at 8PM would get electricity from California at 4PM. There would be some losses from transmitting power for such large distance, but shouldn't it be better than just wasting energy or storing energy even less efficiently?

kfarr 8y ago
Seems like it's not such a crazy (pie in sky) idea after all: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609766/how-to-get-wyoming-wind-to-california-and-cut-80-of-us-carbon-emissions/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609766/how-to-get-wyoming...
sfsafsaf 8y ago
Its not great. Even before solar the advantage of a cross continental TL were there (namely ironing out the demand curve, hydro storage, ect). To limit resistive losses you have to go to really high V -> massive pylons (there were some built behind the iron curtain). But you still have capacitive coupling (and reflections after the TL is larger than $\lambda$/10 -> You need to go to very low f or even DC But high V. DC is hard! and low f AC is massive. Ultimately it hasn't been done because it hasn't been worthwhile.
- lutorm 8y ago
  HVDC is harder than AC transmission, but isn't it a solved problem? "In July 2016, ABB Group received a contract in China to build an ultrahigh-voltage direct-current (UHVDC) land link with a 1100 kV voltage, a 3,000 km (1,900 mi) length and 12 GW of power, setting world records for highest voltage, longest distance, and largest transmission capacity." (From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current)
- asafira 8y ago
  Can you expend on some of these, or give a reference? Specifically, why does going to high voltage limit resistive losses? Why does really high V mean massive pylons? Why is low frequency AC massive?

twothamendment 8y ago

There is a coal powered plant in Eastern Montana that is having troubles. "Data processing and blockchain interests are the latest entities to court the ailing Hardin Generating Station, a 109-megawatt coal-fired power plant that is seeking a buyer to avoid closure." - https://www.apnews.com/6a577c7d0dc1488b9481d03685950e96 https://www.apnews.com/6a577c7d0dc1488b9481d03685950e96 Great, now we can watch train loads of coal go into a building and bitcoins come out! Yeah, that is the smell of progress.