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For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as
by mhneu 8y ago
For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration.
With the recent reduction in immigration, accelerated by the party in power now, the US is going to face the same low birth rate problems as other advanced economies.
And the people leading immigration suppression in the US know this.
Paul Ryan in December:
This is going to be the new economic challenge for America: people. Baby boomers are retiring—I did my part, but we need to have higher birth rates in this country,” Ryan told reporters on Thursday. Ryan, the Wisconsin Republican and current Speaker of the House, “did [his] part” by having three children.
http://www.newsweek.com/paul-ryan-wants-you-have-more-kids-749328 http://www.newsweek.com/paul-ryan-wants-you-have-more-kids-7...
It's also worth adding: the political environment in the US for decades means that one party wants to make it hard for two-parent working families to have more kids (because those two-parent families tend to vote for the other party, and one-earner families have kids that vote for their party). That's a big part of the reason the US has poor child care and maternity leave support -- because those policies are a political football in the US.
- 8note 8y agohe should have had seven. three is still a decline from the generation before.
- nostromo 8y agoI don't see the value in large numbers of unskilled workers entering the US every year. With a potentially large wave of automation coming, the US shouldn't straddled itself with lots of unemployable drivers, farm workers, etc. I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example.
- cm2012 8y agoImmigrants to the US have the same level of college completion as natives: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/03/key-findings-about-u-s-immigrants/ft_17-05-03_immigrants_education_2/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/03/key-findings...
- toomuchtodo 8y agoIllegal immigrants usually do not (under the table, off the books unskilled labor), and are in the US in large numbers (millions). Not a sleight, just facts.
- achompas 8y agoI don't know that I would claim either of these things off-the-cuff in response to a post citing the ACS.
- traek 8y agoIt's easily verifiable, see [1] under "Educational Attainment of Adults". 13% of unauthorized immigrants have completed college, as compared to 31% of US-born and 30% of authorized immigrants. [1] https://www.migrationpolicy.org/data/unauthorized-immigrant-population/state/US https://www.migrationpolicy.org/data/unauthorized-immigrant-...
- achompas 8y agoThank you for the link.
- madamelic 8y agoAlso, a fact is that illegal immigrants are willing to work for dirt-cheap which subsidizes our produce price. :) https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/in-an-immigration-crackdown-who-will-pick-our-produce/2017/03/17/cc1c6df4-0a5d-11e7-93dc-00f9bdd74ed1_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2ff4106d08ed https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/in-an-immigrat...
- mieseratte 8y ago> I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example. We have a decent immigration system in terms of getting the right kinds of advanced folks. The problem is we are also unwilling to do what needs to be done to stem the tide of unskilled illegal labor that flows into the nation.
- dv_dt 8y agoI would posit that the people coming here illegally to work are actually the most entrepreneurial, hard working, can-do people that we should welcome into our society. Judging based on what current socio-economic status they're at is short sighted. You'll see the same thing expressed in HN regarding employees at declining companies, the most desirable employees leave earlier... Though I would add that doing it via a more realistic temporary work visa program would be preferable to encouraging an illegal crossing industry to flourish.
- mieseratte 8y ago> I would posit that the people coming here illegally to work are actually the most entrepreneurial, hard working, can-do people You're not at all wrong, I grew up with a lot of illegal friends. Good number of them have since gone on to become American citizens through hard work and determination and have built good lives for themselves. Maternally, I'm a second generation American. My grandparents came to America post-WWII with nothing but an offer of employment, and ended up retired with the classic condo beach life. The classic story of rags to middle class American riches. There's a reason that's been the American tale, coming to a faraway land in search of prosperity takes drive. We filter for hard workers. The problem is the black-market / underbelly aspects of this pool, and that very desperation and drive that drove them here has them put up with conditions we should be ashamed of be it in California, Iowa, or Appalachia. Businesses exploiting that cheap source of labor drive down the ability for those trying to live a basic American life.
- rubicon33 8y agoThe biggest counter argument I hear, regularly, is that the "tide" of illegal labor you speak of is NECESSARY. Who will pick strawberries? Who will clean your hotel room? Etc. It's the classic who will do "X" dirty job argument.
- loggedinmyphone 8y agoEurope did the same in importing large numbers of Muslim laborers after WW2. The hope was that they'd either make their money and go back home, or culturally integrate. Many observers will say that neither happened and there's now a difficult social problem in many countries like France.
- dv_dt 8y agoAmerica integrated large immigrant waves in it's past, and I doubt anyone would say the Italians, or Irish, or other minorities were not integrated today. Time bridges cultures, and we're the better for it.
- cheeseomlit 8y agoItalians, Irish, and most of the other immigrants from that time were Europeans who had a lot in common with Americans culturally.
- spamizbad 8y agoNot really true, especially for southern Sicilians Italians They shared neither language nor religion (US was overwhelmingly protestant). At the time, they were considered a distinct race from your typical white American due to their Sicilian heritage. Their diet was also significantly different, to the point where some states actually sent out social workers teaching Italian families to cook "American" foods -- the fear being their pasta-heavy diets would prevent them from integrating. Politically, they were far more pro-labor and were viewed as agitators, socialists and anarchists -- far removed from the political mainstream during the roaring 20s. They were hated and feared enough that there was a mass lynching of 11 Italian-Americans in Louisiana.
- dv_dt 8y agoI don't think you're thinking of the historical details to say that in such a blase manner. The path to integration went through periods much more violent and contentious than anything we see today.
- dalacv 8y agoWhat some people don't realize is that the person emptying your trash bin in the evenings might very well be college educated. Not that they stand a chance of using that education in the US without the appropriate level of English.
- PebblesRox 8y agoYes. For instance, my father-in-law has a PhD but worked as a janitor for a while when he first came to the US, until he could teach himself enough English to land a better job.
- diminoten 8y agoWhat's the definition of "value" here? For current US citizens? For the world's economy? For some kind of global happiness/prosperity measurement? Each definition changes the answers significantly, I'd think.
- losteric 8y agoEmploying immigrants in unskilled labor is a good thing if we're on the cusp of an automation revolution. Immigrants are not citizens - these are employable people who invested in traveling to America because we pay more for their skills. They go home when the market becomes unfavorable. California has never been "straddled" with unemployable farm workers over winter...
- gowld 8y agoHaving fewer children neatly solves the problem of unemployment
- mlrtime 8y agoTry getting reasonably priced manual or domestic work in NYC. Workers here are lazy, incompetent and entitled. Compared to large cities in Asia it is difficult to get good workers here. YMMV
- cm2012 8y agoAlso, children of immigrants have the highest attainment of all https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272775713001349 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S02727...
- ch4s3 8y ago> I don't see the value in large numbers of unskilled workers entering the US every year. With a potentially large wave of automation coming, the US shouldn't straddled itself with lots of unemployable drivers, farm workers, etc. Your argument is that the jobs these people do might be automated away so they shouldn't come here. Is that correct? I would counter that many of these jobs can't easily be automated and that these workers are much more adaptable than you give them credit for. You just aren't going to see robots picking strawberries or hanging sheetrock on a large scale anytime soon for economic and technical reasons. Delivery drivers and dishwashers have very low cpaex vs robots that could do the same. These immigrants also start small companies at higher rates than native born Americans. I guess I just don't get the rationale for keeping out low skill workers. The pay for goods an services, provide labor, start businesses, and generally do quite well.
- BigChiefSmokem 8y agoYou are not in agriculture and manufacturing then. We want to bring back coal mine jobs but why don't those coal miners start picking strawberries then? Neither requires a higher education or barely any education at all.
- wmeredith 8y agoThe coal mining stuff is smoke and mirrors. Arby’s employs more people than the entire coal mining industry.
- papiandpapi 8y agoAnother nativist who displays his/her prejudice under the guise of Illegal vs legal immigrant.Go spend a year outside of United States and come tell us how your experience looks like.
- cheeseomlit 8y agoWhy is it that birth rates have gone down though? Many factors, mostly economic, which should be addressed instead of importing millions of people who will soon be replaced by automation anyways.
- drak0n1c 8y agoPeople used to have many more kids regardless of whether they were facing good or bad times. I'd say the change is less economic and more due to culture - both men and women want less kids. There is economics in the cultural change - as people get wealthier and government welfare becomes more reliable the forces behind maintaining and growing the family decreases. Wealthy people in the past still had many more kids than they do now though, so there's probably a bigger explanation.
- magduf 8y agoI'd say it's because of two things: 1) the invention of reliable birth control (namely The Pill), and 2) the rise of women to equal citizenship status with men, instead of basically being slaves used for breeding. Women are the ones who have to sacrifice the most for children, so now that they have a choice, they don't do it nearly as much: some have none, others only have 1 or 2 and they've had enough. For replacement rate, every woman needs to have 2.1 kids on average, and not nearly enough women want to have 3+ kids to make up for all the women having fewer (which also includes infertile women don't forget). And also with men and women being much more equal, men are expected to invest much more effort in child-rearing now, instead of just banging their wives and then letting them deal with the consequences while they do other stuff with their time. Well they don't want to deal with 6 kids either, and many don't want to deal with any.
- robotrout 8y agoThe idea that a population must expand in perpetuity is an idea that is obviously flawed to apply to any finite nation. Given the oncoming tide of automation, it seems doubly flawed. It should be acceptable for any population to ebb and flow, as changes in internal and external forces occur. Deciding to import warm bodies because your economic ponzi appears to require it seems like short term thinking. It would be better if the ponzi itself was addressed and the population allowed to ebb for awhile. People are easy to attract to your country when you really need them ... unless you've managed to make that country undesirable.
- InTheTop2 8y ago> And the people leading immigration suppression in the US know this. Yeah, but most don't focus on it. Paul Ryan is parroting his father and is not particularly brave or interesting. He's just a guy looking for a new cause to champion, because then he can just be the first, rather than compete. It has little to do with the "issue", which is a non-issue. > US is going to face the same low birth rate problems as other advanced economies Weaseling in "advanced economies" (which means countries without vast natural resources to exploit or what?) is not compelling as part of a narrative, as much as it's a nonsequitor.
- gowld 8y agoWe don't need a higher birth rate. We don't need more people. We have automation to increase productivity.
- hueving 8y ago>because those two-parent families tend to vote for the other party, and one-earner families have kids that vote for their party This confuses cause and effect. Two-earner families tend to be two-earner families because you need two incomes in expensive cities (which vote D regardless of familial status). Single-earner families get much on much less in smaller cities and rural areas that tend to be more conservative.
- clairity 8y agoyes, it's time we all ackowledge and internalize the fact that our priorities as a nation have changed away from economic prosperity for all. we're full-on protectionists now. immigrants threaten what we got (a high-status nation dominated by wealthy white people), so they got to go, despite being the primary driver of our properity. as a bonus, wealth disparity will only accelerate as the economic pie stops growing, because the existing capital holders have great advantage in capturing the remaining income streams, further driving down birth rates. meanwhile, countries like china and india have tons of economic headroom because their populations are 4-5 times that of the US, but at lower economic levels. those countries will eventually eclipse the US if we stay on this path.
- avar 8y ago> With the recent reduction in immigration[...] What's your source for that? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I wasn't able to find any year-by-year statistics for US immigration.
- lobster_johnson 8y agoSome good, fairly recent data from Pew [1] and in this [2] NY Times article. From what I gather from this, border crossings are going down, but illegal visa overstays are going up. [1] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/27/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/27/5-facts-abou... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/06/us/politics/undocumented-illegal-immigrants.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/06/us/politics/u...
- jadedhacker 8y agoI think it's difficult to argue that we need more people when we are already straining ecologically. Fewer people is better, especially when we can automate away jobs that are unfilled. However, this does expose a gaping hole in capitalism, that it can only deliver improvements to the masses under conditions of growth. With falling birthrates and immigration, we will need to find a more sustainable political economy. Nonetheless, immigration is falling for dystopic reasons, not good ones (i.e. other countries are more attractive in a positive sense). It's falling because of authoritarianism, xenophobia, and a program of ethnic cleansing targeted at the most vulnerable people that is being performed by ICE. EDIT: The last paragraph is justified because there are 325M people in the US and 11M undocumented people. There may be a marginal effect on jobs, but the bulk of the economy is made up of everyone else. We're talking about 3% of the population.
- paulddraper 8y ago> one party wants to make it hard for two-parent working families to have more kids Wait what? Are we talking child credits, abortion, progressive income taxes, mortgage tax credit?
- briandear 8y agoHas there been a reduction in legal immigration? Just curious what the actual numbers are.
- NTDF9 8y agoThere has been a noticeable difference in the quality in top universities in the US. No really top student from anywhere really wants to navigate the nonsense that US immigration is. The only people who are coming in are reasonably well off, but desperate to move.
- TausAmmer 8y agoHuman farm needs to keep on churning.