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China, India grapple with the consequences too many men
- a2tech 9y agoIsn’t the consequence usually unrest and war?
- batuhanw 9y agoWars are killing men, which isn't happening for a while like before. So men population grow fast and there is nothing to decrease it.
- JumpCrisscross 9y agoWouldn't your causal mechanism be disproven by the reams of peaceful countries without such imbalances? In any case, the natural overproduction of males versus females at birth is too tiny to explain these gulfs.
- falcor84 9y agoAs I understand it, the grandparent's argument is that earlier on in history, wars (and violence in general) would cause a reduction in the percentage of males. For example[0], in Soviet Russia following WW2, the ratio of young men/women dropped to 0.7. And that given that the China and India are more peaceful now (for various reasons), this violent force does not come into effect. I don't understand how your response is relevant to the above argument. [0] https://www.ucis.pitt.edu/nceeer/2007_820-4g_Brainerd1.pdf https://www.ucis.pitt.edu/nceeer/2007_820-4g_Brainerd1.pdf
- batuhanw 9y agoPeaceful countries with balanced population has better woman rights. What China/India has, isn’t really natural because they tend to abort female babies.
- Arbalest 9y agoAt birth, there is a slight bias towards males born. However that is something in the order of 51% male babies to 49% female babies. That is far less pronounced than what is being observed.
- colanderman 9y agoThat's not too far off from the figures quoted in the article – a 2% difference of 1.4 billion (China's population) would be 28 million, which is not too much less than the 34 million difference quoted in the article.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- emodendroket 9y agoI was just today reading a piece arguing that measures showing historic lows in war deaths are wildly misleading because so much war today takes the form of civil war, rather than inter-state conflict, something which the measures don't cover very well.
- gph 9y agoHistorically that would definitely be true, but there's a couple interesting anecdotes in the article where some of the men mention spending their time holed up alone either on their phone, watching TV, or doing various leisure activities like karoke. In the past they didn't have those kinds of distractions and/or solitariness. The reality is they may just grow old and sad often stuck in their remote village far cut off from any center of power or importance.
- wavefunction 9y agoOr they just kill themselves eventually out of loneliness and despair. I was traveling through Karnataka a few years back and was riding a conveyance from the historical site back to my accommodations and passed through a small town on the way. There was a middle-aged (perhaps even late 20s) man lying in the middle of the road, while traffic dodged around him. The driver told us the man was to poor to start a family and so had gotten drunk and laid in the road to be run-over and killed.
- conistonwater 9y agoHow did the driver know that?
- Rescis 9y agoPresumably it was a normal occurence.
- curun1r 9y agoThose are two things that can happen, but a more generalized version of that is an increased drive for exceptionalism. Men will take more risks to succeed at all costs because the safe route means failure. That can be mean war, where many men die and the survivors are the exceptional ones. But it can also mean a highly-stratified society with a class of unsuccessful men who will never marry or have children who are likely treated as not much above slave labor.
- Kluny 9y ago> In India, there is the opposite effect: Because brides are scarce, families are under less pressure to save for expensive dowries. So weird. Note that it says "less" pressure, not no pressure. Women are in short supply, yet their culture still requires the bride's family to pay the groom to take her? More evidence that those macroeconomic supply and demand curves are nonsense.
- JumpCrisscross 9y ago> More evidence that those macroeconomic supply and demand curves are nonsense You'll throw out reams of evidence because it doesn't match a marriage "market" in a developing country undergoing a cultural shift?
- whatshisface 9y agoSupply and demand curves are microeconomic, not macroeconomic. Also, they predict continuous changes to equilibrium (what we're seeing here) and not sudden jumps to zero (what, I agree, isn't happening.)
- GuiA 9y agoThis might just be what it is like to be in the middle of a curve that will eventually reach 0. Perhaps in a few decades the dowry will be flipped or gone altogether, but it takes a while to change culture - even when you have macroeconomics on your side :)
- analyst74 9y agoThat's an interesting observation, because the equivalent of dowry has mostly disappeared in China due to the gender imbalance. And in some cases even the reverse (groom's family paying a dowry, in cash or real-estate) is demanded.
- sevilo 9y agoI believe the groom demanded to be paying for car and house is actually majority of the cases in China these days, especially in cities. Women have decent income themselves, most parents only have a single child, so why should mine (girl) be worth less than yours (boy) while there are plenty of men to be chosen from with a short supply of women
- georgeecollins 9y agoIt's interesting that there is a similar imbalance in China and India (~35m). That implies to me that the imbalance was not caused by the one child policy, but by sonograms and abortions.
- chaostheory 9y agoI could be wrong but the sonograms and abortions are also just a side effect. The real problem is that neither place puts much importance on gender equality. Women have even less opportunities than men over there, compared to the West. That said, things have improved and continue to improve though the pace is really slow
- verroq 9y agoI was under the impression that gender equality in Chinese society is much better than the west in some respects, espescially the amount of women in STEM.
- squeegee7 9y agoIn business, too -- there are proportionately more female billionaires.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- throwaway080383 9y agoI got that sense as well. I don't have numbers to back it up, but in grad school and where I currently work, there were very few women, yet it seemed like the ratio of Chinese men to Chinese women was closer to equal than the overall ratio of men to women.
- emodendroket 9y agoI think it is quite easy to imagine a sexist society where that particular manifestation of sex difference doesn't exist but others do.
- adamnemecek 9y agoIs Li Weibin’s life common?
- DimitarIbra9 9y agoi don't think so. rare case.
- imron 9y agoIt's not a rare case at all, especially among male migrant workers.
- whooshee 9y agoIt is rather rare and illegal to 'buy' a partner, many left-over men will probably be alone for their lives.
- imron 9y agoI agree, but that is not what was asked. adamnemecek was asking specifically about the life of Li Weibin, who didn't buy a partner. Instead his is the live of a hard laborer, living in cramped dormitories, and forever alone, with little/no chance of breaking free from that life. Unfortunately it's all too common among migrant workers.
- ams6110 9y ago> sex-selective technology Nice way to say aborting female babies.
- natch 9y agoOr abandoning, also happens a lot, as I learned when someone in my family adopted a girl.
- jxramos 9y agoheh, just another stroll though euphemylane.
- Mindless2112 9y agoSomehow they couldn't manage to call it "women's health".
- dm3730 9y agoJust reading about this and looking at a sex ratio map, https://www.mapsofindia.com/census2011/female-sex-ratio.html https://www.mapsofindia.com/census2011/female-sex-ratio.html , there is a massive difference between a diagonal line between the North and the South. North India is what is described as dominated by patriarchal religions like Islam, Christianity, Islamicized-Hinduism and Urdu-Hindi languages whereas South India and North-East India practices animist or ancestor worship Hinduism (less Islamic/Christian influence) and speak Dravidian or Austro-Asiatic languages. It is like two separate countries. The North seems to be a terrible mess with well below normal female births.
- JumpCrisscross 9y agoCuriously, it carries across the boarder to Pakistan [EDITED OUT: which appeared to have had fewer than 550 females per male in 2013] [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_inequality#/media/File:2013_Gender_gap_index_world_map,_Gender_Inequality_Distribution.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_inequality#/media/File:... EDIT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_sex_ratio#/media/File:2012_Birth_Sex_Ratio_World_Map.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_sex_ratio#/media/File:20...
- natch 9y ago>[the north is] dominated by patriarchal religions like... Perhaps not so curious after all.
- farseer 9y agoYou posted a link to gender gap index (access to health, jobs etc), not birth rate.
- meric 9y agoI don’t think that chart means what you think it means. In any case can you clarify your comment? 550 females per male?
- Scaevolus 9y agoThat's a map of a composite "gender inequality" score, which is about employment and earnings ratios, not actual sex ratios. Here's one for sex ratios: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_sex_ratio#/media/File:2012_Birth_Sex_Ratio_World_Map.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_sex_ratio#/media/File:20...
- ShabbosGoy 9y agoI wonder what the long term impact will be on their societies. If brides are scarce, would it lead to the betterment of social conditions for women in these (traditionally) chauvinistic societies?
- imron 9y agoUnfortunately, that's unlikely. I mean it might happen in urban well-developed areas, but if history is any indicator then for most parts of the country women will likely be worse off, and you'll see things like an increase in kidnappings, forced marriages, and shared marriages with multiple men. Bride kidnapping is already having somewhat of a resurgence in China - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bride_kidnapping#China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bride_kidnapping#China
- ShabbosGoy 9y ago> In one form of a typical qiangqin, the abductor would arrive at a woman's house flanked by around twenty men. While the friends carried the woman away, the "groom" would use scissors to cut off the woman's panties. The woman, struggling to preserve her dignity, would be unable to adequately fight off her abductors. The victim would then be taken to the groom's house, where the marriage would be consummated. Really bizarre stuff. You’d think in the 21st century, such primitive human practices would not occur anymore.
- clamprecht 9y agoIs there currently any country with too many women? I've heard interesting things about Paraguay, which lost like 90% of their men after some really bad wars, and how it changed their society.
- AdamTReineke 9y agoPer Wikipedia, Russia has about 4 million more in the 15-64 demographic. 48m men and 52m women. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia This article seems to have a little more background on why. Wars and alcohol are harder on men than women. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/08/14/why-the-former-ussr-has-far-fewer-men-than-women/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/08/14/why-the-form...
- meric 9y agoI’ve read quite a few Chinese articles about a trend of Chinese expats working in Siberia marrying with local Russian women. I don’t know how accurate they are so I won’t post them here. It was interesting read though.
- batuhanw 9y agoI personally know some Turkish people who’ve been in Siberia for years and what they say is the same as yours.
- siberianbear 9y agoIn Russia, men have a higher tendency to die in late middle age due to alcoholism and work-related fatalities. The difference in the "15-64 demographic" is really only visible starting at age 50. In the 20-30 range, there is no real difference.
- Blackthorn 9y agoHistorically you can look at the UK after WW1, and possibly other European countries.
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- Proven 9y agoYou mean too few women?
- senatorobama 9y agoI wish China and India would be friends instead of frenemies. Think of the possibilities.
- shripadk 9y agoNot going to happen. Pakistan has been China's ally for decades. China won't break that friendship for India. India will never get into a trilateral alliance with the number of issues (terror and political) pending with Pakistan. To top it, China hasn't gotten over the fact that India gave shelter to The Dalai Lama. Then there is the Chinese ambition to take over lands, seas and oceans in and around it. China won't give up it's claim over Arunachal Pradesh, nor will it set Tibet free, nor would it destroy the CPEC that it has built through disputed territory to maintain status-quo. Too many sticking issues that cannot be resolved until and unless China let's go of it's territorial ambitions and stops backing terror sponsors in Pakistan.
- whooshee 9y agoActually Modi is visiting China in recent days. China and India will continue to compete and cooperate. Tibet has been a part of China for many centuries, and the serfs over there has been given freedom by CCP. Maybe some of those old serf-owners didn't like that. In foreseeable future, both China and India will look to increase its influence and there will be more conflicts, see Maldives, but also deals to make, like phone-makers from China continue to invest in India.
- shripadk 9y agoTibet was not part of China for many centuries. It was an independent country before it was Annexed by China in 1951. There has never been any freedom given by China to Tibet. Contrast it with India's liberation of Bangladesh from attrocities of Pakistan. India did not annex Bangladesh when it had all the strength and opportunity to do so. Chinese influence in India is actually diminishing on the ground. People in India are more aware now than ever before. People here prefer to buy products either made in India or some other country and not from China. Things are changing rapidly on the ground which will take a few years for it to be visible to China. India cannot have the huge trade deficit it has with China right now. To top it, China's persistent support to Pakistan backed terrorism is going down in bad taste with Indian citizens. Modi is not having an official summit with Xi. This is an unofficial summit over Doklam and other pressing issues. I don't see any positive outcome from this as both parties involved will not be willing to shift from their positions. Xi wants to consolidate power. Not just within but also by annexing other territories, oceans and islands. This also includes involvement in the power tussle currently underway in Maldives. This is a big gamble because it may end up pushing those countries that weren't allies of China but still had trade to reconsider China as a decent trade partner. Look at the US tariffs imposed on China. Other countries will take the cue once they realise China isn't as powerful as it portrays. It all boils down to if China can be a responsible superpower. Currently, it has everything going for it except that one point. Future will tell if Xi's gamble of alienating trade partners who weren't allies a good move or a bad one.
- anon518 9y agoApparently, it could have been worse. "Study finds millions of China's 'missing girls' actually exist": https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/01/asia/china-missing-girls/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/01/asia/china-missing-girls/inde...
- RobertRoberts 9y agoThere's some youtube videos (can't find them right now) from video bloggers (right term?) that live in China, and there are many Chinese women that Chinese men won't marry (apparently older women). This is despite the fact that men out-number women. There's a cultural aspect that may not be taken into account that may be exacerbating this issue.
- upofadown 9y ago>“In the future, there will be millions of men who can’t marry, ... Why? Two husbands are better than just one. More resources to support the family. Flip a coin and then alternate on the kids. Multiple wives are allowed in other countries. Why not allow multiple husbands instead? It wouldn't work for everyone but it only has to work for some...
- sumedh 9y ago> Why not allow multiple husbands instead? Read an article (lazy to search it again) which says it is already happening in some North Indian states like Punjab and Harayana where brothers "share" a wife.
- Karishma1234 9y agoTrue. Our building watchman spends 6 months in Mumbai while his brother 'takes care' of his wife. He then goes back and brother comes on watchman duty. Better its my brother than neighbour he says.
- eklavya 9y agoI was about to reply to the parent, where? It's so unreal that you have a first hand example. It came as a shock to me, I wonder what other social phenomenon I have missed.
- Karishma1234 9y agoIn case you have missed this phenomenon you might have missed the following too: - People from Harayana actually paying money to smuggle young brides from UP and Bihar. - Bringing brides from outside has become an election promise in Harayana. - There is an active flesh trade going on between Assam/UP/Bihar and Haryana. There is also arbitrage. For example buying brides from Assam at Rs 5000 for UP but then selling them in Haryana for Rs 10,000 - Church is also responsible for moving young children across country. I remember meeting a young girl from Odissa working in a house in Goa. She was brought there by Church. The girl was later rescued for sexual abuse.
- pacetherace 9y agoThis is also causing the average age when girls are getting married to go down and it is increasing the age difference between the bride and groom.
- calvinbhai 9y agoMany decades back there was scaremongering among the western nations that overpopulation in China and India will lead to hunger all over the world, which lead to a lot of programs that may have actually lead to US / Europe sponsoring these technologies to become widely available in China and India. Ford Foundation is often cited as one of the main culprits pushing the ultrasound technology in these countries, the result of which is the current situation of skewed gender ratio. Upward mobility of women (in search of grooms) leads to more and more frustrated men at lower levels, leads to more crime and overall desperate situation. Sadly many recent articles follow the typical propaganda based approach and look at blaming patriarchy etc. src: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/04/what-money-can-buy-profiles-larissa-macfarquhar https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/04/what-money-can... https://www.amazon.com/Unnatural-Selection-Choosing-Girls-Consequences/dp/1610391519/abhinav-20 https://www.amazon.com/Unnatural-Selection-Choosing-Girls-Co... http://indiafacts.org/was-ford-foundation-culpable-in-aborting-female-foetuses-in-india/ http://indiafacts.org/was-ford-foundation-culpable-in-aborti...
- adventured 9y ago> Ford Foundation is often cited as one of the main culprits pushing the ultrasound technology in these countries, the result of which is the current situation of skewed gender ratio. The spread of ultrasound technology in China and India, did not result in the current situation of skewed gender ratios. You're confusing the underlying cause (desire for male labor or heirs) and a healthcare tool. How that technology was used, may have had a role in amplifying or accelerating the result (they could still just kill the baby girl after birth). Obvious, simple proof: ultrasound tech didn't cause the same extreme gender skew outcome in the US, Germany, France, UK, Russia, South Korea or Japan, those nations chose not to disproportionately kill baby girls despite having ultrasound tech (that's also the case for nearly all nations). China and India should have widely available ultrasound tech. All nations should.
- iliketosleep 9y agoBeing quite familiar with China, I second this. I don't know about India, but in China it was the combination of a cultural necessity to have a son and the one the child policy that lead to the current gender imbalance. In the bad-old-days, many girl babies were simply discarded and often died. The problem cannot be blamed on ultrasound tech.
- lzoo 9y agoThe 60-year-old mom who still cooks for her seven sons + her husband... Noooo! learn how to make your own bread - at least.
- ryanx435 9y agoIt's ridiculous that you assume cooking is a burden for her. I host family meals regularly and really enjoy cooking for everyone, plus it provides an opportunity for everyone to get together. Maybe stop looking at everything with such a negative filter.
- nbdev 9y agoSince people actually enjoy cooking for their family, believe it or not.
- rabboRubble 9y agoAnd now you know why that woman may have aborted female fetuses. Avoidance of the continuation of miserable life for the women of India! Better to have boys that get married, then you can sit back and boss around the daughter-in-law. Oh whoopsie, everybody aborted the girls? Hmmmm, I wonder why.
- onetimemanytime 9y ago>>“In the future, there will be millions of men who can’t marry, and that could pose a very big risk to society,” May I suggest a war between the two countries? This problem will be solved. I was being semi-serious but I remember reading about war being more likely since China had so many men.
- batuhanw 9y agoWars were preventing overgrowing of populations before. Now technology, peaceful era causing overpopulation of homo-sapiens which is really big problem. Thus I think what you suggest makes sense. Also it will give some people reason to live, distraction, some glory.
- chillacy 8y agoMost people were dying from disease (esp in infancy) for most of history, not sure having another war will help there. And I can't tell what's more horrifying, suggesting that we should start some more wars to kill people or suggesting that we should bring back some plagues. Also while I agree that it's harder to find glory in modern times, and there definitely should be a better outlet for that need, I think war has changed so significantly due to technological advances that people wouldn't find much glory lobbing bombs from a UAV piloting center. The days of finding glory on the battlefield are probably as distant as the days of 90% of people working as farmers to produce food for themselves.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- emmelaich 9y agoWhat's with the ungrammatical title? It's the MercuryNews title, so not the submitters mistype. Reminds me that USA Today had a front page heading with technology misspelled as techonolgy
- Animats 9y agoThe Mercury News was acquired by the Contra Costa Tribune, and barely has a newsroom any more.
- vichu 9y agoHere is the original article from The Washington Post (this appears to be a rehost by Mercury News): https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-men/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-... It contains more charts and graphics, but also makes use of parallax scrolling that some may find annoying.
- Karishma1234 9y agoFord Foundation, Evangelical NGOs and World Bank Intellectual Yet Idiots are to be blamed here. I remember in my childhood government ran this insane propaganda for vasectomy. Government claimed we all would die of hunger unless we stop producing babies. This propaganda was sponsored by people in USA who claimed population was a time bomb. Those fears were totally discredited with time. Sadly good well off people bought the propaganda where as poor did not. Government even outright lied that vasectomies are easily reversible when in reality those procedures are more complex and not free. That is why I caution current Indian government to simply ignore the first world problems like Global warming doomsday and instead focus on rapid growth so existing millions can afford to feed themselves and let USA and Europe play the global warming game. Indian PM is smart and he used global warming scare to get billions from USA and Europe while doing only lip service to actual efforts. China is doing same and better.
- aaronblohowiak 9y agoPopulation is a time bomb that is presently exploding. The rate of food production will not keep pace with population, and somewhere between 200-500 million people have died of starvation since the warnings about population in 1968 that likely inspired the programs you are talking about (not all in India and not due to total carrying capacity...) Global warming impacts the poor disproportionately compared to the rich, because the rich will be able to afford food when it becomes more scarce. This disproportionate impact on the poor is one of the reasons the Pope has called on all of us (and the Wealthy in particular) to be concerned about and act on global warming. From a self-centered perspective, “don’t divide the farm” — concentrate instead of dilute the wealth flowing to the next generation. I do not believe the poorest are net contributors to economic activity so increasing their number is not the path to national prosperity.
- Karishma1234 9y agoYou are wrong and smug Sir.
- whooshee 9y agoMany of those 'more men' are from villages who didn't like girls. So they are swallowing that on their own, which is kind of re-balancing. By the way, given the tech we have these days, more and more young people seem to be OK to live only with themselves. Let alone VR, if you will.
- oregondan 9y ago> ...demographers say it will take decades for the ramifications of the bulge to fade away. heh