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For those concerned with jobs to be eliminated, it might not be as big a problem as we think for the trucking industry. "Over the next 10 years, he said, we ne

For those concerned with jobs to be eliminated, it might not be as big a problem as we think for the trucking industry. "Over the next 10 years, he said, we need to attract almost 900,000 new people to the industry. Demographics is a big part of the problem. ATA’s research arm, the American Transportation Research Institute, recently updated its demographic data on drivers and found some 57% of drivers are 45 or older. Only 4.4% are 20-24 years old, noted Rebecca Brewster, president and COO of ATRI." http://www.truckinginfo.com/channel/drivers/news/story/2017/10/driver-shortage-could-hit-all-time-high-this-year.aspx http://www.truckinginfo.com/channel/drivers/news/story/2017/... In addition, there will still be much need for humans to take care of the maintenance of the trucks and manipulation of the cargo over the next couple decades. So there will likely be a significant number of truckers still employed, perhaps with increased productivity. Also, certain other jobs will create large increases in demand for labor over the upcoming decades, in particular home care for the elderly and, if we get politics right, better & more individualized education for the young. (A reminder) Lump of labor fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy --- Added in response to some comments below: Yes, there will be challenges particularly regarding the distribution of benefits from increased productivity. The share of wealth garnered to capital holders will likely increase. People in labor force who have the skills to develop and maintain automation systems will certainly benefit. (That is why education and (re)training are crucial.) The rest may enjoy some, but probably not most, of the larger pie created by advanced technology. However, the economic pie will be enlarged and there will be more to share. How the fruits of technology will be distributed will depend to a large extent on negotiations and politics.

nitwit005 9y ago
> "Over the next 10 years, he said, we need to attract almost 900,000 new people to the industry. The pay of truckers has, in inflation adjusted terms, shrunk by more than half since the 80s. They mostly need to bring in more people because their turnover is ridiculous.
wongarsu 9y ago
>some 57% of drivers are 45 or older. Only 4.4% are 20-24 years old For reference: Assuming a driver starts working at age 18 and retires at age 65, and given equal distribution of workers over all ages, you would expect 42% of workers to be 45 or older, and 10% of workers to be 20-24 years old (if you assume 21-70, then 51% should be 45 or older). Just in case anybody else was wondering what those numbers mean. As an aside, this projection from the same presenation looks slightly suspicious: http://www.truckinginfo.com/fc_images/news/l-driverturnover-ata2017.jpg http://www.truckinginfo.com/fc_images/news/l-driverturnover-...
- jaf656s 9y ago
  Did you factor in truckers’ short life expectancy?
DoubleCribble 9y ago
>much need for humans to take care of the maintenance of the trucks Is that really true? It seems electric trucks[0] quickly follow from autonomous trucks and from what I understand, electric vehicles are mechanically much simpler. That leaves truck operators with not much need for a greasemonkey wrenching on a transmission when there is a) little/no grease[1] and b) no transmission[2]. Tire & body shops are about the only maintenance jobs I can think of that won't be reduced/eliminated by the coming changes. [0]https://www.tesla.com/semi https://www.tesla.com/semi [1]https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/insights/impact-of-electric-vehicles-on-lubricants-demand/ https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/insights/impact-of-el... [2]https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/a12019034/why-dont-electric-cars-have-multi-gear-transmissions/ https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/a120190...
- EggsOnToast 9y ago
  Slight tangent, how's the Tesla semi-truck been doing? When I was looking over the specs the range seemed low compared to a regular semi but I wasn't clear on if that was acceptable because they're targeting a particular subset of the semi-truck market.
  - DoubleCribble 9y ago
    It seems like a strange time to buy a nationwide chain of truck stops[0] with the oncoming electrification of vehicles. Unless... there's an opportunity to provide Supercharger access every few hundred miles. [0]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-03/buffett-s-berkshire-hathaway-acquires-stake-in-pilot-flying-j https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-03/buffett-s...
  - paranoidrobot 9y ago
    The range is fine for single-driver operations, as the driver still has to stop and take rest breaks equal to or longer than the stated time to recharge on a 'megacharger'. I suspect that there will be deals done (if not already in progress) between Tesla and/or Fleet companies with truck stops across the country to install (paid) megacharger stalls at appropriate distances. Even if charging time is slightly longer, it might still work out equal if the power of the truck lives up to expectations, and the truck no longer needs to slow down when going up hills.
jaf656s 9y ago
> In addition, there will still be much need for humans to take care of the maintenance of the trucks and manipulation of the cargo over the next couple decades. So there will likely be a significant number of truckers still employed, perhaps with increased productivity. There’s already an industry that performs these tasks so there’d be a small percentage of absorption of current truck drivers. You also assume there’d be more trucks, but there’d likely be fewer, at least at first. Since a fully automated truck could operate substantially more hours than with a driver. Drivers have hours of service that restrict how much they drive per day and per week. Also, on a macro scale automated trucks wouldn’t be adopted if they didn’t displace workers.
intended 9y ago
Re training will fail. This is the major fatal flaw of the current economic system. Supporting data: The writing has been on the wall in glowing neon ever since the advent of MOOCs. MOOCS have many near magical attributes that we have long sought in education 1) The students regularly self select into the courses they want, as opposed to schools where you don't have a choice. 2) Courses are free 3) Courses are high quality, and improving with testing 4) Courses are media rich, and use multiple types of stimulation for stronger impact when studying 5) Honorary mention - gamification 6) Material is always available, at any time - you are not limited to teachers being available 7) You even have online communities you can reach out to, to discuss your work And yet they have about a 10% completion rate. Let me underline - thats a 10% rate with a self selected pool of interested applicants. MOOCs are literally magic. IF you are talking about re-training then you are missing the Big Picture: The re-training and skill up revolution has come and gone. We should currently be seeing a large rise in the number of people who are self actualizing, and learning skills in a wider range of industries. ----------- In economic terms, the failure rate of MOOCs indicate that retraining attempts will result in very poor retrenchment of workers. Most jobs lost will result in under-employment, increasing the concentration of capital in the hands of capital holders. This will have a knock on effect on the America old style university system, as this will become the only path to a higher paying career over poor paying service sector work. ---------- The retraining model which will work will require people to be allowed to train non stop on material, and the ability to focus and work on a subject till they have gained the necessary mastery. I doubt this will be possible, because a family earner cannot take weeks off to master a skill only to have to hunt for jobs in a market where younger students already abound. Consider how many people want to get healthier, apply to gyms - and then stop going. Re-phrase the retraining problem as an attempt to get all of humanity (or a slice of it) fit. Also since the tools of technology allow for hitherto impossible levels of orchestration and conversation management, the barrier to outrage driven organization and outrage has been set much higher, which will lead to less negotiation power during the eventual distribution of wealth
zitterbewegung 9y ago
Yea, every industry makes this claim and it either means that no one wants to do the job because it is harmful or doesn't pay well enough. I don't think it is a good counter argument to the automation of one of the largest industries that employ people in the United States. Even if you take the claim that it won't impact jobs you have to look at other people in the ecosystem and how their jobs will be impacted (automated trucks don't need to eat or sleep and that means those truck stops will stop existing).
- gerad 9y ago
  The rate of change matters far more than the amount of it. https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture
d0mine 9y ago
Can the history teach us anything here? What had happened when the technology called "China" became available? How did it affect jobs elimination?
Shivetya 9y ago
anecdotal, but each summer I spend time at a hotel in the Austintown/Youngstown area which is a drop off point for newly "graduated" students from a trucking school. the old timers are there too and some are there to pick up their partner as many long distance services have two drivers per cab. the old timers are a great source of information and if anything stands out its how many new drivers don't cut it. most leave on their own but others are pushed out for not being good drivers. good means not only a safe driver but properly courteous to everyone you meet. quite a few get into it on the storied romance aspect of it, those stories that convey that there is something special in it, one with the road, etc. others because they don't understand the complexity of the job. it is not just driving. so I am really curious how much work moves to dock yards and better yet, what processes are being put in place to handle all the interaction with local enforcement agencies because truth be told there are parts of this country where the locals stop trucks fishing for something to ticket and generate revenue on. how will self driving, no one aboard, eventually be handled?
- marnett 9y ago
  The book The Long Haul: A Trucker's Tales of Life on the Road captures a lot of stories with feelings like the ones you described; romanticism that stems from on identifying heavily through their work. Here is one of those stories from the book [1]; I'd recommend people in this thread give it a read, it is worth knowing the lives of so many Americans before it is automated and stories like these disappear. https://longreads.com/2017/09/21/a-high-end-mover-dishes-on-truckstop-hierarchy-rich-people-and-moby-dick/ https://longreads.com/2017/09/21/a-high-end-mover-dishes-on-...
knz 9y ago
Is the issue a lack of jobs or a lack of jobs that pay enough to prosper in our society? BLS has the mean annual income for a truck driver at $43,000 (https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533032.htm https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533032.htm) versus ~ $22,000 for a personal care assistant (https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/home-health-aides-and-personal-care-aides.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/home-health-aides-and-per...). That's a huge difference, especially in a country with the health care system we have.
- EggsOnToast 9y ago
  Those numbers make sense at a glance. A truck driver, despite the popular image, more closely resembles specialized work than un-specialized. There are specific skill and documentation requirements to become a Truck driver. The healthcare work you linked to just requires a high-school diploma and no certs, if it's a job like caring for the elderly then the main factor driving up the wage is a shortage of people willing to deal with the challenges of working with an elderly person which can include rude or mentally ill families/customers, excrement, and being comfortable cleaning and/or bathing another human being.
  - icelancer 9y ago
    Trucking is absolutely skilled work. It's crazy that people think it isn't.
  - noobermin 9y ago
    You start by saying how a personal care assistant is rather unspecialized work and then go on to ruminate on the peculiarities of the job that most people wouldn't want to deal with. Why isn't trucking an unskilled job just with negative features (long hours alone, danger to health given the erratic hours) too?
    - EggsOnToast 9y ago
      >You start by saying how a personal care assistant is rather unspecialized work and then go on to ruminate on the peculiarities of the job that most people wouldn't want to deal with. Correct. Being willing to endure undesirable work isn't usually included in the definition of skilled labor unless that tenacity is accompanied by another requisite skill or certification. I'm not trying to argue that it isn't a socially valuable skill, just that given the bar for entry it isn't surprising the wage is that low. >Why isn't trucking an unskilled job just with negative features (long hours alone, danger to health given the erratic hours) too? Because you've skipped over the training and licensing required to legally operate as a truck driver. You need a Commercial Drivers License if nothing else and many states require the completion of specialized courses before awarding an applicant their CDL. That CDL represents a specialized skill-set without which a person simply won't be permitted to operate as a trucker. Physical endurance and mental tenacity are critical traits in this instance too but they're far from being enough to get you hired. Edit: Something else I glossed over, but which seems relevant because this is predominantly a tech oriented forum is that the average Cost of Living in America is in line with the wage being paid to the Home Health Aide. It might not be enough for San Francisco or a coastal area, but it's enough in general to pay rent and save some money on the side for additional schooling or whatever purpose appeals.
LethargicStud 9y ago
Generally, the idea of stifling innovation to "preserve jobs" is harmful to society. Upon choosing a career, you should consider the longevity of that career. Some people will still pick wrong for a multitude of reasons. Hopefully, those people can pivot. It is unreasonable to hold the entire population back to continue employing those in a specific field. If we consistently did that, we'd be in the stone age and our quality of life would be far poorer. This will help future generations drastically even if it hurts us a bit.
- CaptSpify 9y ago
  Although I agree with you, the problem (in the US at least) is that pivoting is nearly impossible for a large group of people. Our educational system is expensive and generally has terrible quality, and we don't have very good social programs to help float people while they are getting re-educated. If we push innovation without changing these problems, it's not gonna be pretty.
  - smsm42 9y ago
    If you don't need shiny credentials, educational system is much less expensive - there are community colleges, courses, free or low-cost online education, etc. Most costly educational requirements arise when coupled with licensing requirements - if you need an official paper, you're gonna pay.
- txsh 9y ago
  When I graduted high school during the .com bust my father told me not to major in CS in college because there wouldn’t be any jobs for me when I graduated.
- antihero 9y ago
  Despite being a coder, I almost desire tech work to become replaced by machines at some point, with the only options of retraining to be prohibitively hard and leaving us in the dreadful position of these workers, just so I can watch people with attitudes like this get it handed to them. The attitudes we have towards the unskilled, low-skilled, or those who are being replaced and made redundant by the systems we develop is sickening. Describing someone spending extensive amounts of time and money retraining and having to abandon a career they've done for decades as "pivoting". Will you provide for their family in the years it takes them to be proficient at a skill that they can use to replace their income and support themselves? Or are we just all snidely sitting here with our tech know-how preaching to those who grew up in a different time, or with different opportunities, or who couldn't have ever predicted the scale to which their livelihoods would become obsolete? "Hurts us a bit". Don't even speak like you're in the same boat as these people. Don't get me wrong, progress will happen, but we need to make it socially aware and compassionate progress, not tough luck you didn't pick a the right career and now your life is fucked progress.
gthtjtkt 9y ago
> However, the economic pie will be enlarged and there will be more to share. How the fruits of technology will be distributed will depend to a large extent on negotiations and politics. If recent history is any indication of how this will turn out, it's not going to be pretty. The rich get richer and everyone else gets screwed.
- PantaloonFlames 9y ago
  > The rich get richer and everyone else gets screwed. Not actually true. a more accurate telling is: the rich get richer and the poor get richer too. You may commenting on the fact that the rich are getting richer FASTER than the poor are getting richer, and that's an interesting phenomenon to comment on, but it is undeniable that everyone is getting richer, almost regardless how you slice the data. Worldwide, extreme poverty is on an accelerating decrease, and is set to be completely eradicated by 2030. In the US and in Western economies, poverty, which used to be common only 80 years ago, is almost completely erased. Meanwhile those who have low income, but are above "the poverty line", continue to see growth in wages, in standard of living, and in lifespan and in quality of life. Objectively. Why are we are inundated with the false idea that "things are so bad" by mainstream media? That narrative sells papers and clicks. But it's not supported by the data. Whether we all would benefit from rebalancing the wealth distribution is a different question. reference: Humanprogress.org, and Steven Pinker's new book, "Enlightenment Now" (highly recommended)
  - gthtjtkt 9y ago
    > Why are we are inundated with the false idea that "things are so bad" by mainstream media? Maybe because it's not false and it's actually happening to an alarming degree in the U.S.? https://hbr.org/2017/10/why-wages-arent-growing-in-america https://hbr.org/2017/10/why-wages-arent-growing-in-america http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-wor... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-01/america-s-wage-growth-remains-slow-and-uneven https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-01/america-s...
  - 9y ago
11thEarlOfMar 9y ago
It's not a major point, but I'd be curious to know the average age that the over-45 drivers started driving. Did they drive from their 20s, or did they pick up truck driving as a 2nd or 3rd career?
- txsh 9y ago
  Annecdotal evidence but I know two people who started in their 50s. It’s a good second career for people who are getting too slow for manual labor.
- paganel 9y ago
  > Did they drive from their 20s, or did they pick up truck driving as a 2nd or 3rd career? Just one data-entry point (and it's from Eastern Europe, not the States): my brother picked up trucking in his mid-30s, that is 5-6 years ago. Until then he had been a farmer, but as the agricultural subsidies in my country can't rival with those given to French farmers (for example) there was no way for him to earn his living just by raising cows (even though he loved the farming work). Until this trucking job he had never been out of the country, in the meantime he has seen almost all of Europe up to Western Turkey. It's not a job for everybody, though: a month or so ago he was robbed of 240 liters of diesel fuel while he was in his sleep-pause somewhere in Bulgaria, he had just been waiting for 20 hours a short time before that at the Turkish-Bulgarian custom point, and he's usually gone 2 or even 3 weeks at a time.
emodendroket 9y ago
I rarely see justification for the idea that lump of labor is actually fallacious. Historically big die-offs have led to higher wages for survivors.
- TheCoelacanth 9y ago
  The counter-example would be the Industrial Revolution. Compared to 150 years ago, nearly every job has had the amount of work necessary to do it dramatically decreased, yet wages increased dramatically.
- ZeroGravitas 9y ago
  If those high wage earning survivors are also paying high wages to all the other survivors, then are they actually better off? My gut reaction is no, less people means less work is being done and you lose a lot of economies of scale.
  - marcosdumay 9y ago
    Few people pay wages, many people collect them. But I don't think history will be useful, because depopulation also causes on increase in agricultural productivity (per person) that is a huge confounding variable.
    - ZeroGravitas 9y ago
      Few people pay wages directly, everyone pays wages indirectly.
      - emodendroket 9y ago
        Let me answer your question with another question: looking at the world as it exists today, would you rather be a person of average means in a high-wage country, or a person of average means in a low-wage country?
        9y ago
petermcneeley 9y ago
> However, the economic pie will be enlarged and there will be more to share. How the fruits of technology will be distributed will depend to a large extent on negotiations and politics. I think this is you ceding your original comment. I think most people clearly understand this is merely a (potential) distribution problem.
temporalparts 9y ago
Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) were set to put Bank Tellers out of a job, but since its introduction, the number of Bank Tellers increased [0]. While I can't guarantee that something similar will happen for truckers, automation does not guarantee that fewer humans will be employed doing that specific job. [0] http://www.aei.org/publication/what-atms-bank-tellers-rise-robots-and-jobs/ http://www.aei.org/publication/what-atms-bank-tellers-rise-r...
- Avshalom 9y ago
  Bank Tellers have however as a result turned into entry-level-retail with often impossible quotas for sales.
- stephengillie 9y ago
  Most grocery stores don't even have self-check stations. It's clear that these open more opportunities for loss than they generate returns in increased shopper throughout and return visits. Meanwhile, my mother still curses the personal computer revolution for taking her job as a transcriptionist. Everyone types today, so specialists are rarely needed.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
- njwi332 9y ago
  This isn't actually correct, or at least it's not a correct interpretation of the data. The absolute number increased, but it decreased as a percentage of population, which is the relevant number here.
- hobofan 9y ago
  I'd love to see that graph continued for the last few years. With online banking becoming more mainstream and online-only banks picking up steam, I've personally seen many local bank branches close up, and have a hard time believing that. > So the transition–what the ATM machine did was effectively change the job of the bank teller into one where they are more of a marketing person. Not sure if such an alternative position can be found in a cutthroat B2B market.

nitwit005 9y ago

> "Over the next 10 years, he said, we need to attract almost 900,000 new people to the industry. The pay of truckers has, in inflation adjusted terms, shrunk by more than half since the 80s. They mostly need to bring in more people because their turnover is ridiculous.

wongarsu 9y ago

>some 57% of drivers are 45 or older. Only 4.4% are 20-24 years old For reference: Assuming a driver starts working at age 18 and retires at age 65, and given equal distribution of workers over all ages, you would expect 42% of workers to be 45 or older, and 10% of workers to be 20-24 years old (if you assume 21-70, then 51% should be 45 or older). Just in case anybody else was wondering what those numbers mean. As an aside, this projection from the same presenation looks slightly suspicious: http://www.truckinginfo.com/fc_images/news/l-driverturnover-ata2017.jpg http://www.truckinginfo.com/fc_images/news/l-driverturnover-...

jaf656s 9y ago
Did you factor in truckers’ short life expectancy?

DoubleCribble 9y ago

>much need for humans to take care of the maintenance of the trucks Is that really true? It seems electric trucks[0] quickly follow from autonomous trucks and from what I understand, electric vehicles are mechanically much simpler. That leaves truck operators with not much need for a greasemonkey wrenching on a transmission when there is a) little/no grease[1] and b) no transmission[2]. Tire & body shops are about the only maintenance jobs I can think of that won't be reduced/eliminated by the coming changes. [0]https://www.tesla.com/semi https://www.tesla.com/semi [1]https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/insights/impact-of-electric-vehicles-on-lubricants-demand/ https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/insights/impact-of-el... [2]https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/a12019034/why-dont-electric-cars-have-multi-gear-transmissions/ https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/a120190...

EggsOnToast 9y ago
Slight tangent, how's the Tesla semi-truck been doing? When I was looking over the specs the range seemed low compared to a regular semi but I wasn't clear on if that was acceptable because they're targeting a particular subset of the semi-truck market.
- DoubleCribble 9y ago
  It seems like a strange time to buy a nationwide chain of truck stops[0] with the oncoming electrification of vehicles. Unless... there's an opportunity to provide Supercharger access every few hundred miles. [0]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-03/buffett-s-berkshire-hathaway-acquires-stake-in-pilot-flying-j https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-03/buffett-s...
- paranoidrobot 9y ago
  The range is fine for single-driver operations, as the driver still has to stop and take rest breaks equal to or longer than the stated time to recharge on a 'megacharger'. I suspect that there will be deals done (if not already in progress) between Tesla and/or Fleet companies with truck stops across the country to install (paid) megacharger stalls at appropriate distances. Even if charging time is slightly longer, it might still work out equal if the power of the truck lives up to expectations, and the truck no longer needs to slow down when going up hills.

jaf656s 9y ago

> In addition, there will still be much need for humans to take care of the maintenance of the trucks and manipulation of the cargo over the next couple decades. So there will likely be a significant number of truckers still employed, perhaps with increased productivity. There’s already an industry that performs these tasks so there’d be a small percentage of absorption of current truck drivers. You also assume there’d be more trucks, but there’d likely be fewer, at least at first. Since a fully automated truck could operate substantially more hours than with a driver. Drivers have hours of service that restrict how much they drive per day and per week. Also, on a macro scale automated trucks wouldn’t be adopted if they didn’t displace workers.

intended 9y ago

Re training will fail. This is the major fatal flaw of the current economic system. Supporting data: The writing has been on the wall in glowing neon ever since the advent of MOOCs. MOOCS have many near magical attributes that we have long sought in education 1) The students regularly self select into the courses they want, as opposed to schools where you don't have a choice. 2) Courses are free 3) Courses are high quality, and improving with testing 4) Courses are media rich, and use multiple types of stimulation for stronger impact when studying 5) Honorary mention - gamification 6) Material is always available, at any time - you are not limited to teachers being available 7) You even have online communities you can reach out to, to discuss your work And yet they have about a 10% completion rate. Let me underline - thats a 10% rate with a self selected pool of interested applicants. MOOCs are literally magic. IF you are talking about re-training then you are missing the Big Picture: The re-training and skill up revolution has come and gone. We should currently be seeing a large rise in the number of people who are self actualizing, and learning skills in a wider range of industries. ----------- In economic terms, the failure rate of MOOCs indicate that retraining attempts will result in very poor retrenchment of workers. Most jobs lost will result in under-employment, increasing the concentration of capital in the hands of capital holders. This will have a knock on effect on the America old style university system, as this will become the only path to a higher paying career over poor paying service sector work. ---------- The retraining model which will work will require people to be allowed to train non stop on material, and the ability to focus and work on a subject till they have gained the necessary mastery. I doubt this will be possible, because a family earner cannot take weeks off to master a skill only to have to hunt for jobs in a market where younger students already abound. Consider how many people want to get healthier, apply to gyms - and then stop going. Re-phrase the retraining problem as an attempt to get all of humanity (or a slice of it) fit. Also since the tools of technology allow for hitherto impossible levels of orchestration and conversation management, the barrier to outrage driven organization and outrage has been set much higher, which will lead to less negotiation power during the eventual distribution of wealth

zitterbewegung 9y ago

Yea, every industry makes this claim and it either means that no one wants to do the job because it is harmful or doesn't pay well enough. I don't think it is a good counter argument to the automation of one of the largest industries that employ people in the United States. Even if you take the claim that it won't impact jobs you have to look at other people in the ecosystem and how their jobs will be impacted (automated trucks don't need to eat or sleep and that means those truck stops will stop existing).

gerad 9y ago
The rate of change matters far more than the amount of it. https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture

d0mine 9y ago

Can the history teach us anything here? What had happened when the technology called "China" became available? How did it affect jobs elimination?

Shivetya 9y ago

anecdotal, but each summer I spend time at a hotel in the Austintown/Youngstown area which is a drop off point for newly "graduated" students from a trucking school. the old timers are there too and some are there to pick up their partner as many long distance services have two drivers per cab. the old timers are a great source of information and if anything stands out its how many new drivers don't cut it. most leave on their own but others are pushed out for not being good drivers. good means not only a safe driver but properly courteous to everyone you meet. quite a few get into it on the storied romance aspect of it, those stories that convey that there is something special in it, one with the road, etc. others because they don't understand the complexity of the job. it is not just driving. so I am really curious how much work moves to dock yards and better yet, what processes are being put in place to handle all the interaction with local enforcement agencies because truth be told there are parts of this country where the locals stop trucks fishing for something to ticket and generate revenue on. how will self driving, no one aboard, eventually be handled?

marnett 9y ago
The book The Long Haul: A Trucker's Tales of Life on the Road captures a lot of stories with feelings like the ones you described; romanticism that stems from on identifying heavily through their work. Here is one of those stories from the book [1]; I'd recommend people in this thread give it a read, it is worth knowing the lives of so many Americans before it is automated and stories like these disappear. https://longreads.com/2017/09/21/a-high-end-mover-dishes-on-truckstop-hierarchy-rich-people-and-moby-dick/ https://longreads.com/2017/09/21/a-high-end-mover-dishes-on-...

knz 9y ago

Is the issue a lack of jobs or a lack of jobs that pay enough to prosper in our society? BLS has the mean annual income for a truck driver at $43,000 (https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533032.htm https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533032.htm) versus ~ $22,000 for a personal care assistant (https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/home-health-aides-and-personal-care-aides.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/home-health-aides-and-per...). That's a huge difference, especially in a country with the health care system we have.

EggsOnToast 9y ago
Those numbers make sense at a glance. A truck driver, despite the popular image, more closely resembles specialized work than un-specialized. There are specific skill and documentation requirements to become a Truck driver. The healthcare work you linked to just requires a high-school diploma and no certs, if it's a job like caring for the elderly then the main factor driving up the wage is a shortage of people willing to deal with the challenges of working with an elderly person which can include rude or mentally ill families/customers, excrement, and being comfortable cleaning and/or bathing another human being.
- icelancer 9y ago
  Trucking is absolutely skilled work. It's crazy that people think it isn't.
- noobermin 9y ago
  You start by saying how a personal care assistant is rather unspecialized work and then go on to ruminate on the peculiarities of the job that most people wouldn't want to deal with. Why isn't trucking an unskilled job just with negative features (long hours alone, danger to health given the erratic hours) too?
  - EggsOnToast 9y ago
    >You start by saying how a personal care assistant is rather unspecialized work and then go on to ruminate on the peculiarities of the job that most people wouldn't want to deal with. Correct. Being willing to endure undesirable work isn't usually included in the definition of skilled labor unless that tenacity is accompanied by another requisite skill or certification. I'm not trying to argue that it isn't a socially valuable skill, just that given the bar for entry it isn't surprising the wage is that low. >Why isn't trucking an unskilled job just with negative features (long hours alone, danger to health given the erratic hours) too? Because you've skipped over the training and licensing required to legally operate as a truck driver. You need a Commercial Drivers License if nothing else and many states require the completion of specialized courses before awarding an applicant their CDL. That CDL represents a specialized skill-set without which a person simply won't be permitted to operate as a trucker. Physical endurance and mental tenacity are critical traits in this instance too but they're far from being enough to get you hired. Edit: Something else I glossed over, but which seems relevant because this is predominantly a tech oriented forum is that the average Cost of Living in America is in line with the wage being paid to the Home Health Aide. It might not be enough for San Francisco or a coastal area, but it's enough in general to pay rent and save some money on the side for additional schooling or whatever purpose appeals.

LethargicStud 9y ago

Generally, the idea of stifling innovation to "preserve jobs" is harmful to society. Upon choosing a career, you should consider the longevity of that career. Some people will still pick wrong for a multitude of reasons. Hopefully, those people can pivot. It is unreasonable to hold the entire population back to continue employing those in a specific field. If we consistently did that, we'd be in the stone age and our quality of life would be far poorer. This will help future generations drastically even if it hurts us a bit.

CaptSpify 9y ago
Although I agree with you, the problem (in the US at least) is that pivoting is nearly impossible for a large group of people. Our educational system is expensive and generally has terrible quality, and we don't have very good social programs to help float people while they are getting re-educated. If we push innovation without changing these problems, it's not gonna be pretty.
- smsm42 9y ago
  If you don't need shiny credentials, educational system is much less expensive - there are community colleges, courses, free or low-cost online education, etc. Most costly educational requirements arise when coupled with licensing requirements - if you need an official paper, you're gonna pay.
txsh 9y ago
When I graduted high school during the .com bust my father told me not to major in CS in college because there wouldn’t be any jobs for me when I graduated.
antihero 9y ago
Despite being a coder, I almost desire tech work to become replaced by machines at some point, with the only options of retraining to be prohibitively hard and leaving us in the dreadful position of these workers, just so I can watch people with attitudes like this get it handed to them. The attitudes we have towards the unskilled, low-skilled, or those who are being replaced and made redundant by the systems we develop is sickening. Describing someone spending extensive amounts of time and money retraining and having to abandon a career they've done for decades as "pivoting". Will you provide for their family in the years it takes them to be proficient at a skill that they can use to replace their income and support themselves? Or are we just all snidely sitting here with our tech know-how preaching to those who grew up in a different time, or with different opportunities, or who couldn't have ever predicted the scale to which their livelihoods would become obsolete? "Hurts us a bit". Don't even speak like you're in the same boat as these people. Don't get me wrong, progress will happen, but we need to make it socially aware and compassionate progress, not tough luck you didn't pick a the right career and now your life is fucked progress.

gthtjtkt 9y ago

> However, the economic pie will be enlarged and there will be more to share. How the fruits of technology will be distributed will depend to a large extent on negotiations and politics. If recent history is any indication of how this will turn out, it's not going to be pretty. The rich get richer and everyone else gets screwed.

PantaloonFlames 9y ago
> The rich get richer and everyone else gets screwed. Not actually true. a more accurate telling is: the rich get richer and the poor get richer too. You may commenting on the fact that the rich are getting richer FASTER than the poor are getting richer, and that's an interesting phenomenon to comment on, but it is undeniable that everyone is getting richer, almost regardless how you slice the data. Worldwide, extreme poverty is on an accelerating decrease, and is set to be completely eradicated by 2030. In the US and in Western economies, poverty, which used to be common only 80 years ago, is almost completely erased. Meanwhile those who have low income, but are above "the poverty line", continue to see growth in wages, in standard of living, and in lifespan and in quality of life. Objectively. Why are we are inundated with the false idea that "things are so bad" by mainstream media? That narrative sells papers and clicks. But it's not supported by the data. Whether we all would benefit from rebalancing the wealth distribution is a different question. reference: Humanprogress.org, and Steven Pinker's new book, "Enlightenment Now" (highly recommended)
- gthtjtkt 9y ago
  > Why are we are inundated with the false idea that "things are so bad" by mainstream media? Maybe because it's not false and it's actually happening to an alarming degree in the U.S.? https://hbr.org/2017/10/why-wages-arent-growing-in-america https://hbr.org/2017/10/why-wages-arent-growing-in-america http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-wor... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-01/america-s-wage-growth-remains-slow-and-uneven https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-01/america-s...
- 9y ago

11thEarlOfMar 9y ago

It's not a major point, but I'd be curious to know the average age that the over-45 drivers started driving. Did they drive from their 20s, or did they pick up truck driving as a 2nd or 3rd career?

txsh 9y ago
Annecdotal evidence but I know two people who started in their 50s. It’s a good second career for people who are getting too slow for manual labor.
paganel 9y ago
> Did they drive from their 20s, or did they pick up truck driving as a 2nd or 3rd career? Just one data-entry point (and it's from Eastern Europe, not the States): my brother picked up trucking in his mid-30s, that is 5-6 years ago. Until then he had been a farmer, but as the agricultural subsidies in my country can't rival with those given to French farmers (for example) there was no way for him to earn his living just by raising cows (even though he loved the farming work). Until this trucking job he had never been out of the country, in the meantime he has seen almost all of Europe up to Western Turkey. It's not a job for everybody, though: a month or so ago he was robbed of 240 liters of diesel fuel while he was in his sleep-pause somewhere in Bulgaria, he had just been waiting for 20 hours a short time before that at the Turkish-Bulgarian custom point, and he's usually gone 2 or even 3 weeks at a time.

emodendroket 9y ago

I rarely see justification for the idea that lump of labor is actually fallacious. Historically big die-offs have led to higher wages for survivors.

TheCoelacanth 9y ago
The counter-example would be the Industrial Revolution. Compared to 150 years ago, nearly every job has had the amount of work necessary to do it dramatically decreased, yet wages increased dramatically.
ZeroGravitas 9y ago
If those high wage earning survivors are also paying high wages to all the other survivors, then are they actually better off? My gut reaction is no, less people means less work is being done and you lose a lot of economies of scale.
- marcosdumay 9y ago
  Few people pay wages, many people collect them. But I don't think history will be useful, because depopulation also causes on increase in agricultural productivity (per person) that is a huge confounding variable.
  - ZeroGravitas 9y ago
    Few people pay wages directly, everyone pays wages indirectly.
    - emodendroket 9y ago
      Let me answer your question with another question: looking at the world as it exists today, would you rather be a person of average means in a high-wage country, or a person of average means in a low-wage country?
      - 9y ago

petermcneeley 9y ago

> However, the economic pie will be enlarged and there will be more to share. How the fruits of technology will be distributed will depend to a large extent on negotiations and politics. I think this is you ceding your original comment. I think most people clearly understand this is merely a (potential) distribution problem.

temporalparts 9y ago

Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) were set to put Bank Tellers out of a job, but since its introduction, the number of Bank Tellers increased [0]. While I can't guarantee that something similar will happen for truckers, automation does not guarantee that fewer humans will be employed doing that specific job. [0] http://www.aei.org/publication/what-atms-bank-tellers-rise-robots-and-jobs/ http://www.aei.org/publication/what-atms-bank-tellers-rise-r...

Avshalom 9y ago
Bank Tellers have however as a result turned into entry-level-retail with often impossible quotas for sales.
stephengillie 9y ago
Most grocery stores don't even have self-check stations. It's clear that these open more opportunities for loss than they generate returns in increased shopper throughout and return visits. Meanwhile, my mother still curses the personal computer revolution for taking her job as a transcriptionist. Everyone types today, so specialists are rarely needed.
- deleted 9y ago
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njwi332 9y ago
This isn't actually correct, or at least it's not a correct interpretation of the data. The absolute number increased, but it decreased as a percentage of population, which is the relevant number here.
hobofan 9y ago
I'd love to see that graph continued for the last few years. With online banking becoming more mainstream and online-only banks picking up steam, I've personally seen many local bank branches close up, and have a hard time believing that. > So the transition–what the ATM machine did was effectively change the job of the bank teller into one where they are more of a marketing person. Not sure if such an alternative position can be found in a cutthroat B2B market.