14 ms·

The Role of Luck in Life Success

208 points by kevinyen 9y ago

jtraffic 9y ago
A bit of self-promotion. I wrote an essay on this topic. Perhaps it's worth reading for those interested in this thread: https://hackernoon.com/a-guide-for-getting-lucky-in-startups-1ec24ee40c5c https://hackernoon.com/a-guide-for-getting-lucky-in-startups...
bowenli0701 9y ago
IMHO, for normal people like me, who do not have lots of money in trust fund, I have to work hard, acquire skills and obtain luck to succeed. :-)
elnygren 9y ago
You can only get lucky if you position yourself to be able to get lucky. In addition, you need that carpe diem attitude to exploit any lucky breaks. A business opportunity is not gonna magically appear if you are not constantly looking for one and you won’t be able to exploit it if you haven’t learned relevant skills and built a network.
- slivanes 9y ago
  Lucky I just happened to be on HN to read this comment, otherwise I wouldn't have known I needed other skills to take advantage of opportunities that arise.
- empath75 9y ago
  I think one has to be lucky to have talent, and the education and upbringing required to learn how to exploit that talent, in addition to having opportunities to take advantage of it. Not even getting into socio-economic challenges due to race and class.
- franzmafka 9y ago
  A million factors determine your trajectory long before you either do or do not prepare for this or that opportunity.
  - neveroffensive 9y ago
    > A million factors determine your trajectory This is inaccurate, or at the very least, incomplete. Mainly I take issue with the use of the word, "determine". Randomness plays a huge role in the direction of a persons life, there is no denying this. However, a persons trajectory in life is only influenced by this. It's also very much influenced by choice. More importantly, there is ample evidence to suggest that choices can dramatically reduce the influence of randomness. In my mind the equation is something like this: (choices)/(randomness)=(chance of success) Where (randomness) is a constant, and (choices) increases with good directed choices and decreases with bad or indiscriminate choices.
- whytaka 9y ago
  One could only be so lucky to have the time and resources to be looking for opportunity.
- anonemouse145 9y ago
  How did you choose who your parents were going to be? What part of your carpe diem attitude helped your mom not do drugs and destroy your gestating brain before you were born? How did you bootstrap your country so that you weren't a victim of war or starvation at a young age? What part of your attitude ensured you were born into a modern society at the right time to be educated, instead of being a pre-agrarian human ancestor? What part of your free will in life ensured you'd be the sort of tech person who'd post on HN rather than perhaps an ascetic who'd be living a life of poverty on the streets of Bangladesh to combat consumerist attitudes? Would that be a wrong choice to make? That said, correlation and causation. The movers and shakers of society are likely to believe they had more control in their life. Not necessarily the other way around. But it can be helpful to envision yourself as being in control of more of your life than you really are.
  - neveroffensive 9y ago
    You've brought up a lot of seemingly good points, but I feel you've conflated a lot of things here. First, I think we need to shift the discussion back to the first world. That was what the article was written about. Third world issues are outside the scope of the discussion. At least in the context of the comment you are replying to. Success is going to mean something different when you're country literally doesn't have food. No one is arguing starving children in Bangladesh should be able to be the next CEO of Google. Second, I think you overestimate the extent to which issues like, "mom doing drugs" effect the general population in the first world. I would argue that the majority of unsuccessful people in the first world have not been effected by anything worse than the standard issues which arise from being raised in an impoverished/educationally lacking family environment.
  - elnygren 9y ago
    This doesn’t change what I said though does it? I never implied that anyone could do those things. The point was that you’re not automatically participating in the “get lucky to become successful” lottery.
- mtgex 9y ago
  You can't position yourself to be born a white male, which I believe affords the greatest advantages, and opens the most opportunities of any personal attribute you can have.
  - antisthenes 9y ago
    Stop trying to make it a race and gender issue. It helps no one but the rentier class to further divide the people they are extracting profit from. What wealth 'class' you are born into has by far the biggest effect on your chance of success.
    - mtgex 9y ago
      But it is a race and gender issue. I'm not trying to divide people, just stating facts. Attaining wealth is much easier if you're born into a specific race, thus your chances of being born wealthy are directly correlated with your chances of being white. Attaining wealth is much easier if you're male. Among the many reasons are increased career opportunities in general, less chance of a stalled career because of child rearing, greater status in negotiations, etc. All I'm saying is it is incredibly lucky to be born a white male in a society which so highly values them, and try as hard you might, you can't position yourself to get that advantage if you weren't born with it.
      - askafriend 9y ago
        Stop doing this. It is a factor - no one denies that, but it is only one of many factors. You're trying to elevate one factor above others and derailing the higher conversation people are trying to have here. It's just not productive.
        mtgex 9y ago
        Many people deny this, so I think it is an important part of the higher conversation and inherently productive to discuss. People tend to think luck is heavily about positioning yourself to succeed. I think that's true, but I also believe that the most important factors to putting you in those lucky positions are not in your control. Someone who is not already born into a lucky position has to get even more lucky to succeed. You telling me to simply stop talking about something that I believe is an important point to make is very strange.
- georgeecollins 9y ago
  That is a great example of confirmation bias. The person who positions themselves for luck deserves credit. And in my experience usually get it. The person who positions themselves for luck and is unlucky, is usually considered less capable.
  - elnygren 9y ago
    I agree. I merely stated that it’s not automatic that you are even participating in the lottery of “becoming successful” :)
- tghw 9y ago
  That logic is inherently flawed because luck plays a part in each of those aspects, too. To have learned the "relevant skills" means you need to have been fortunate enough to have been provided an education. To build a network that matters you need to have access to the right people. Looking for new business opportunities is only possible if you have the resources to do. Eventually, it all goes back to who you were born as and who you were born to. Your odds of "success" are much higher if you're born as a white male in the US than if you're born as an female in rural India. No amount of effort can change those odds. That's not to say that effort doesn't play a part, it absolutely does. But a significant amount of success is supported by good fortune layered on more good fortune.
  - elnygren 9y ago
    I agree but I’m not sure why my logic would be flawed because of this
- snuxoll 9y ago
  Right on the money. I wouldn't be in the position I am today without a dose of luck/chance, I was in the right place at the right time and knew the right people - but at the same time none of this matters if I was unable to execute and take advantage of the opportunities I was presented.
- jhayward 9y ago
  The luckiest thing that could possibly have happened to you was which geographic area and social status you were born to. How did you manage to position yourself for that?
axiom92 9y ago
I've at times stated that anyone who says that luck isn't important has possibly never had any success in life. There are a lot of things that can go wrong in any pursuit. Hard work shrinks the error bars in the distribution of success but doesn't make them disappear.
- bluetwo 9y ago
  "The harder you work the luckier you get..."
  - confounded 9y ago
    Perhaps true, though working-smart and being affable/networked seems more important than grinding. Still, IME, that variable amount of luck is tiny relative to ‘starting luck’, or straight blind luck. I think it is fair to say that luck ‘compounds’ like interest. Being in a good position generally confers more frequent and higher-value opportunities to get into a better one. Getting lucky early is very important, and the earliest luck you can get is the circumstance of your birth.
  - snarf21 9y ago
    Mostly true. There is the other version of "luck favors the prepared". You can get lucky and not be able to capitalize on it.
    - jandrese 9y ago
      Or luck is required, but not sufficient for success. You also have to put in the hard work and be smart. Put another way, you can't win if you never get to play the game. The world no doubt has a bunch of self starting geniuses who are trapped in poverty in some third world country and will never amount to anything. It's an enormous waste of an incredibly rare resource.
  - ionvoe3w 9y ago
    True, only to a point. I knew someone who became homeless because the were unlucky enough to develop schizophrenia. They couldn't hold a job, or hold their life together without a lot of help. The assistance they got from the state was not enough to save them from dire poverty. One bad thing led to another. So did they not work hard enough? Another person I knew was kicked out of their parents house when they came out as trans. They were thrown out of their house as a teenager with no money and no relatives to turn to (all the relatives were deeply religious and believed that 'tough love' would make her change her wicked ways). She found work, and eventually got a place to live. But with poor education, and being a social outcast, she could only just make ends meet. It left her vulnerable, and subsequent boyfriends, "friends" and roommates would take advantage of that. Now you can say these are edge cases. I agree. And for most people, the "hard work" advice pays off. But realize how smug it sounds, to proclaim that all you need is hard work, when some people do everything they can and still get stuck.
ythn 9y ago
You can improve your chances of success with hard work/perseverance though. 1. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 2. Give up vs. 1. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 2. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 3. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 4. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 5. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 6. Try -> (luck roll) -> success!
- cdancette 9y ago
  Only if you have enough resources to continue.
  - matt_wulfeck 9y ago
    1. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 2. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 3. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 4. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 5. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 6. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> success!
    - jandrese 9y ago
      Try to get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail Try to get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail Try to get resources -> (luck roll) -> starve to death You see this with people who always have some scheme in the pipeline and may have even had some modest success (and notoriety) with one of the schemes, but ends up dying alone and penniless anyway. They do the work, but never get the break. The world is just unfair sometimes.
    - PsylentKnight 9y ago
      Being fortunate to have a die to roll with is a form of luck. Over 10% of the world lives on less than $1.90 a day, and there's no way out - it's not a matter of determination.
citilife 9y ago
If you sit on the couch all day doing nothing, you wont get lucky. Sure, we can identify "luck" as a path to success, but honestly that seems more like survivor bias.... There are a nearly infinite number of events that had to take place for everything to exist in its current state. We can call it "luck" or "randomness" which then leads to specific actions leading to success. However, in reality we are designed to recognize patterns. If we recognize a pattern and make an attempt to improve our situation, it's not "luck" or "randomness" its a probability of success. Combine that over a life time and persistence will lead to success, not just one random event. It's a series of events that lead to success, each one moving you one way or the other. It's typically your "choice" which path you take. I think these articles rub me the wrong way, because it leads a lot of people to think - "If it's all luck, why bother doing anything?" When in reality it's only you that can get anywhere.
- jartelt 9y ago
  It's not ALL luck. It's just that luck can push you over the edge towards success. If you and an equally qualified person interview for the same position, the person that gets the position may just be the person who happened to go to the same college as the interviewer or that has the same hobby as the interviewer (so they really hit it off and have a great conversation). In that case, one person was lucky and the other was unlucky. They were both equally qualified, but one person just had something extra to talk about with the interviewer and made a good connection.
- chongli 9y ago
  You're already lucky if you have a couch to sit on. Plenty of people have no house, let alone couch to sit on. Who you are is substantially a matter of luck, too. Somebody who has two driven parents that spend enormous amounts of time and effort raising them is far more likely to be driven and competitive than a person whose parents lay around smoking weed all day.
  - balabaster 9y ago
    What if one parent was never to be found and the other was always at work to ensure you had a roof over your head and as such you were frequently a feral kid? Your genetic makeup is a product of the genetic histories of two people that (perhaps, but not necessarily) fell in love and had a baby. If they were genetically predisposed to large amounts of self discipline, then perhaps you will be too, perhaps not. I'd say this can count as lucky... or unlucky(?) beyond that, all you've got is your own toil, sweat, tears and guile. "Your choices are half chance, so are everybody else's"
whowouldathunk 9y ago
We're on a small rock flying through an infinite universe. Our lives exist in a small blink of time. Computers run billions of operations per second using software with countless defects at every level of the stack. We're lucky anything works at all. In that context, we succeeded just by being born and living as long as we have, and we'd be pretty narrow-minded to assume that the material success we enjoy is significantly more than a series of happy accidents.
dang 9y ago
The study was discussed yesterday at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16496898 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16496898, but I guess we'll not treat the current article as a dupe, since it's a bit better.
- polskibus 9y ago
  why was the title editorialized? I think it's quite important that the results are in the title.
  - dang 9y ago
    If you mean "The Role of Luck in Life Success Is Far Greater Than We Realized", that's misleading because the actual result was the output of a computer simulation. So we took the misleading bit out, per https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. It was also linkbaity, so that guideline applies too. If you mean the title of the other post, it had the same problem and we edited it in response to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16497343 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16497343.
0xcafecafe 9y ago
I think it is more about increasing your "luck surface area". If you are well prepared in your craft you will be better suited to exploit a potential opportunity favorably when the moment comes.
thisisit 9y ago
At the opposite end of the spectrum is modern self-help culture seems to focus entirely on hard work, habits etc. I routinely balk at stuff promoting 7, 10 or 100 habits of successful people, CEO, leaders or otherwise, as if following them blindly will get you any where. While hard work helps, it takes some luck to succeed.
- CM30 9y ago
  Honestly, most of those pieces are really just cargo culting more than anything else. They don't know exactly why a CEO or leader did well, so they look at their mannerisms and everyday habits and assume those were all things that made them more successful rather than ones they were good enough to overcome/that were completely irrelevant. Well that and the real lessons (aka, luck has a role) isn't quite as soundbite friendly when written in article format.
howeyc 9y ago
That's why you should try you best to enhance your luck factor. http://www.richardwiseman.com/resources/The_Luck_Factor.pdf http://www.richardwiseman.com/resources/The_Luck_Factor.pdf
amoorthy 9y ago
Just read this article. Very cool how the researchers simulated the role luck plays in society with some neat models. The conclusions they reach are fascinating and counter-intuitive e.g. >"[I]f the goal is to reward the most talented person (thus increasing their final level of success), it is much more convenient to distribute periodically (even small) equal amounts of capital to all individuals rather than to give a greater capital only to a small percentage of them, selected through their level of success - already reached - at the moment of the distribution." My two cents from being an entrepreneur: everyone needs luck to succeed but those who are fortunate to have wealth and a support network get far more opportunities for luck to come by. Or, put another way, those with a fortunate background have more chances to fail and find luck eventually than others. Life is not fair but so it is.
- noir_lord 9y ago
  Perhaps to bastardise an old quote. "When luck turns up it better find you with a bag of cash"
  - BatFastard 9y ago
    Love that. I am looking at a great idea that I have been working on, but I am afraid to release it because I know it will be cloned in a matter of months since I can not afford worldwide patent protection.
    - amoorthy 9y ago
      Without much more data I'd say: 1. I once thought the same of an idea I had. When I finally launched it failed. So no one cared to clone it! 2. I have another idea I now think has merit. I've proven some traction with users. Enough that filing a provisional patent makes sense for about $2k. Might want to try this path too.
      - BatFastard 9y ago
        This is not my first time down the primrose path. I already have a few patents in my basket. I been tempted to try filing it myself masochist that I am.
raleec 9y ago
Apologies in advance but I must confess.. I don't get it. Can someone define luck? -I didn't choose my DNA. -I didn't choose my parents. -I didn't choose my circumstances. -I didn't choose which neural pathways were reinforced based on my experiences. -I didn't choose which environmental factors altered any of my biological systems. -I didn't choose not to die in my sleep every night from an undiagnosed ailment. Removing, for the moment whether or not "Free Will" exists... What can anyone choose that isn't based on prior experiences; Experiences that they couldn't control? What can't be attributed to luck?
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- lisper 9y ago
  I think most people believe that you can choose, on any given night, to study or play video games. And I think most people believe that if you choose to study then sooner or later you will succeed. And I think most people are wrong on both counts.
  - skookumchuck 9y ago
    Studying improves your odds of success. Video games improve your odds of failure. It's your choice.
    - lisper 9y ago
      That's true, but being in the right place at the right time improves your odds of success more.
      - skookumchuck 9y ago
        So put yourself into the right place. There's a reason people move to Silicon Valley, for example. Put the video game console down, turn the TV off, get up and go to where the opportunity is.
skookumchuck 9y ago
Every detail that happens in one's life can be attributed to luck. However, one's choices and effort are what enable one to recognize luck when it appears, and take advantage of it. After all, what are the odds of success for a person who smokes dope and watches TV all day, compared with someone who gets an education and is out there swinging every day?
oldcynic 9y ago
Of course after someone has achieved success they put it down entirely to innate worth, effort, skill and so forth. Likewise plenty who have deserved success have been wiped out by unlucky timing of the dot com bust, credit crunch, fraud. Yes persistence pays, but however unpopular it might be around here, we are nearly all one or two rolls from disaster - be that business failure, major illness, or whatever, that can easily escalate into life ruining proportions. I am far less inclined to simply spout "work hard and make your own luck" now than I would certainly have done in my 20s. Thirty more years of experiencing life, and seeing what sheer luck, good and bad, has done to friends, family and their businesses has changed my perspective on luck quite dramatically. You need hard work and luck.
- skookumchuck 9y ago
  Luck won't happen to you if you don't get in the game. Getting in the game means getting out there swinging. Getting in the game is a choice you make.
  - RobertoG 9y ago
    "Getting in the game is a choice you make." If you are lucky enough to make that choice ;-)
    - skookumchuck 9y ago
      Did you reply to me because luck took hold of your fingers, or did you choose to?
      - drb91 9y ago
        He's replying on this forum because he's lucky enough to have a life with enough leisure time to shitpost on a web forum.
        skookumchuck 9y ago
        Did luck force you to reply, as well?
matt_wulfeck 9y ago
These kind of articles and discussions almost invariably lead to defeatists and cynical attitudes. It's akin to saying "Unless you're born with good genes, you'll never be an Olympic athlete, so don't bother training and exercising". You may not ever be wealthy by trying and working hard because of the role luck plays. But there's value in working hard at it that everyone should know, just like there's value in physical training that everyone should know. It takes training and (very importantly) discipline to stick with it.
- mindcrime 9y ago
  It's interesting... there's an anecdote floating around out there somewhere about a famous wrestling coach (quite likely Dan Gable[1]) talking to a group of young wrestlers and telling them something approximately like: "Most of you have the genetics to be an Olympic wrestler. But most of you don't have the work ethic". Of course that's just an amusing anecdote and there's no reason to think that Dan Gable is an expert on genetics. But it's something to think about. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Gable https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Gable
  - maxerickson 9y ago
    And what if the personality traits that feed into "work ethic" have a strong genetic component?
    - mindcrime 9y ago
      That's possible. That's one reason I don't take this quote as gospel or anything. Like I said, it's just food for thought. As far as that goes, we don't even know for sure that we have free will and that we ever actually make any decisions at all. Maybe the whole universe it totally deterministic. I mean, it's hard to see an explanation of how it isn't so. That said I prefer (well, I think I prefer) to believe that we do have free will.
- alayne 9y ago
  Ignoring these external factors isn't going to make them go away and studying them could lead to ideas about removing bias and having more meritocratic systems.
tahw 9y ago
It isn't luck, it's money. Successful entrepreneurs aren't lucky or hard-working, they're just people who have enough cash to operate at a loss while they pursue an idea.
- tonyedgecombe 9y ago
  You could argue that's luck as well, lucky to have wealthy parents or contacts that can finance your business.
CalmStorm 9y ago
It seems that King Solomon already figured this out: “Again I saw that under the sun the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favor to those with knowledge, but time and chance happen to them all.” ‭‭Ecclesiastes‬ ‭9:11‬ ‭ESV‬‬
ph0rque 9y ago
This study seems like a subtle ad for UBI. If everyone gets more resources, the most talented will be the most successful (instead of the moderately talented but incredibly lucky).
downandout 9y ago
One point of contention I have with this article is that it mentions that many CEOs were born during certain months and have names starting with certain letters. The mere mention of the phrase I am about to use always draws the ire of the HN crowd, but I see a big correlation/causation issue with that specific data point. As for the larger point of the article, I always frame this conversation in this way: if you were lucky enough to be born in a first world country, you can become a millionaire through hard work with relatively little luck involved, but you have to get very lucky to become a billionaire. In other words, the kind of large scale success that it takes to become a billionaire is nearly always dependent upon numerous factors outside of your own control, any one of which could easily put billionaire status out of reach. Becoming a single digit millionaire, however, can be done by anyone of at least average intelligence, that is willing to work long and hard in a field that has historically paid its workers well. Jobs in technology, finance, medicine, and even some trades (master plumbers/electricians etc.), pay well enough that anyone who manages their money properly should be on track to become a millionaire at some point during their lifetime.
- antisthenes 9y ago
  Just for clarification, when you mean millionaire, do you mean a positive net worth of $1,000,000 or just having earned $1,000,000 in some arbitrary period of time?
  - downandout 9y ago
    I meant a net worth of at least $1MM.
    - tonyedgecombe 9y ago
      Yet there are plenty of people that work very hard without reaching that goal.
      - logfromblammo 9y ago
        I think that the point was that everyone can make conscious choices that will lead to millionaire status. Avoidable mistakes can derail that, but cautious living can eliminate the luck factor. Anyone born in the US, regardless of social status or ability, can become educated as an electrician, gain work experience up to master status, then incorporate as a subcontractor business to employ both less-experienced and less-ambitious electricians. Between the value of the business and index fund investments, and judicious use of insurance, that person will be a millionaire (by net worth) by the time they reach age 65. If you choose to work at McDonald's when you graduate high school instead of the journeyman program of IBEW Local X, or even choose a less valuable skill in the building trades, the path is more difficult, more competitive, and less forgiving, but is still theoretically possible. If you go to college and get an engineering degree, the path is easier, but requires more up-front investment. If you go to college and get a degree in art history, that might be one of those avoidable mistakes that I mentioned earlier. One of the decisions that must be made is "how many children will I support?" If you want to be a millionaire, the correct answer is zero. If you abandon completely the idea of raising children, you can certainly be a millionaire by the time you retire. The process will usually include establishing yourself as a small-business owner with near-guaranteed local demand. Most professions simply do not earn enough to provide sufficient margins for savings and investment unless you also employ the labor of someone besides yourself.
StriverGuy 9y ago
The most important quote: "In general, those with greater talent had a higher probability of increasing their success by exploiting the possibilities offered by luck. Also, the most successful agents were mostly at least average in talent. So talent mattered."
- tacomonstrous 9y ago
  I don't understand this artificial distinction between talent and luck. Isn't one lucky to possess the talent in the first place? What one does to develop that talent into something meaningful is of course a different matter.
juanmirocks 9y ago
And then the problem is that we are biased to believe that the winners did almost everything right, and the losers did almost everything wrong. Often is chance. Having said that, those who persevere, by definition are more likely to succeed. They have more changes. "The harder I work, the luckier I get".
- internetman55 9y ago
  Maybe I have a stronger intrinsic work motivation than most people, but I seem to get luckier when I slow down, assess the situation, and start making simple but sometimes extremely emotionally difficult changes.
  - juanmirocks 9y ago
    Well, I think your scenario applies to another idea: most often we avoid doing that thing that really is the most important, because we emotionally fear it somehow. It can be just calling a client, or changing a career, or even translates for asking a partner out. For this, you are right, it is vital to stop from time to time, assess the situation, identify the most important thing, and regardless of how difficult it is, do it.
    - juanmirocks 9y ago
      And you are right, often in hustle mode we go fast and work hard, but don't work intelligently. I'm trying myself to incorporate forced "retreats or slow-downs" to better assess my progress.
nilanjanmishra 9y ago
I believe being at the right place at the right time with the right people matters a lot. And the 'right' part of this equation is more luck than talent, although preparation can definitely help.
SomeHacker44 9y ago
I attest to this. I have had a reasonable success in life (built and sold a few companies, have a financial cushion, a home, a small plane, etc.). I have done everything well and with diligence but when I look at the flow of my life, the financial success came primarily from luck. Being at the right place at the right time. Having a good idea at the right time. Knowing the right people at the right time. Having the right product pivot in the right market conditions. Many of these things worked out because of circumstances beyond my ability to predict and control. I have had a similar amount of failures and my ability to predict what will be successful is limited to nil. Yes, I worked hard and put my all into everything, but so do many others I know. I was also fortunate (lucky!) to have support systems and friends which allowed me to take risks that turned out to be rewarding. I also try to spread the rewards and recognize those people who have allowed me to find this lucky success. I also have the luck to be in a country that has reasonable government and infrastructure (perhaps notwithstanding the last year or two), lucky to have chosen economically stable parents who gave me a top education without debt at the end, lucky to have chosen (ha) white privilege which I didn’t fully understand or appreciate until the last decade and try hard to expand to everyone now. Yes, I made some circumstances to benefit from the luck. But so have others who have not experienced the luck. I am grateful for my luck and work to enable others to have a good life without the same luck. There but for the grace (of god or gaia or luck) go I.
- mv4 9y ago
  Luck plays a huge role. However, it does help when one can recognize a rare opportunity, and can quickly act on it (take that meeting, show up at that event, say the right thing).
lisper 9y ago
I am financially independent and it is almost entirely due to luck. I was in a stable career as an AI researcher when, in 2000, pretty much on a whim, I decided to apply to work at an obscure little startup company called Google. It was the only startup I had ever applied to at that point (until then my ambition had been to become a university professor). Since 2005 I have participated as a principal in half a dozen other startups. They all failed. Being in the right place at the right time makes a much bigger difference than effort or ability. Working hard and being skilled can help tilt the odds in your favor, but they are neither necessary nor sufficient for success.
- psyc 9y ago
  Around 2001, a cohort of recent grads was working on an obscure experimental thing at Microsoft that never went anywhere. Half of the group went to Mountain View, and half stayed in Redmond. The first half are all millionaires now, and the second half are just well-off. You can look at this from many directions. Did the natural hustlers hustle their way to Google, while the naturally complacent stayed put? Did the Googlers just go there because that's where their friends went, or because they thought it was cool? Did the Mountain View people catch the fever after the fact, and become hustlers, while the Redmond people absorbed the relatively relaxed culture there? Did everyone just go where they thought was best and then it turned out one of those places was saturated in money?
  - aje403 9y ago
    Sounds like the Monty Hall problem :) keep your door or switch. I'd say the ones who left were wiser ex-ante
  - sokoloff 9y ago
    I would be shocked if more than 10% of those recent grads who were working at Microsoft in 2001 and stayed in the industry anywhere are not now millionaires. (It's not that high nor noteworthy of a hurdle for our industry.)
- aje403 9y ago
  You were an AI researcher in 2000 and decided to take a risk and join a startup, this is a very poor definition of luck. Luck does always belong in the conversation - "All great events hang by a hair, I believe in luck, and the wise man neglects nothing which contributes to his destiny"
yhavr 9y ago
Define luck. The Universe by definition isn't deterministic starting from three particles in classical mechanics and one particle in the quantum case. Define success. Is it doing what you like being surrounded by people you love? Or has it to be a mansion and a yacht? Without proper definitions the entire discussion is useless. For example, I state that I have already succeed not because of luck, but because of my free will. And all further improvements in my life will be just better grades of success. Argument 'if a raptor didn't kill that butterfly far far ago you would now be slave to the vicious Uganda Empire' doesn't fit, as it can by applied to every statement. Argument that I don't have a yacht doesn't fit, as "yachts are for loosers" and success isn't tied to material posessions.
vladmk 9y ago
I agree with this article, but a healthy way to look at for me is multipliers. Example, success will get you there, but luck is the multiplier. Example lets say you work super hard and become a millionaire, you run a 2 million dollar company. I think it's realistic, however your friend with the 20 million dollar company and 200 million dollar company probably didn't work that much harder than you, they just chose better fields and where at the right place at the right time. Another example non-business wise is genetics. Example: you can work your ass off and be a really good basketball player, you'll have fun, you'll get admiration, but to be an NBA superstar you need a ton of luck involved ie lack of injuries, right coaches, right genetics. That doesn't mean quit improving as a basketball player or quit that business, it just means try your best and admit luck is a factor.
deleted 9y ago
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jedberg 9y ago
Here's my feeling on luck: You have some control over your own luck, ie. you can make your own luck. The key is to maximize your own opportunities for luck. For example, when I heard about the very first startup school, I didn't really have the money to go to Boston. But I found a really cheap flight at a terrible time, found a floor to sleep on in Boston, and went. And in doing that, I met Steve and Alexis and ended up working at Reddit, which made a huge difference in my life. At that point the luck that I can't control kicked in (them wanting to hire me). But I only met them because I made it a point to find them and meet them and say hello, and it would have never happened if I hadn't figured out a way to get there in the first place and made sure to meet them. Things like this happen all the time. I look for opportunities were I can "increase my potential for lucky things". Sometimes that means going out of my comfort zone, or asking for something that may be a bit unexpected or there is a good chance someone will say no.
iamleppert 9y ago
If the only thing that gets you out of bed in the morning is the blind pursuit of “success” for that alone, or money, that makes me sad.
- marnett 9y ago
  Unfortunately that is an overwhelmingly large amount of people.
pitchups 9y ago
One of the most important takeaways from this article, is not what the title suggests, but the consequence of it being true for society. It is buried in the middle of the article and if true, is must-reading for everyone who determines public policy or funds startups: "[I]f the goal is to reward the most talented person (thus increasing their final level of success), it is much more convenient to distribute periodically (even small) equal amounts of capital to all individuals rather than to give a greater capital only to a small percentage of them, selected through their level of success - already reached - at the moment of the distribution."

208 points by kevinyen 9y ago

A bit of self-promotion. I wrote an essay on this topic. Perhaps it's worth reading for those interested in this thread: https://hackernoon.com/a-guide-for-getting-lucky-in-startups-1ec24ee40c5c https://hackernoon.com/a-guide-for-getting-lucky-in-startups...

bowenli0701 9y ago

IMHO, for normal people like me, who do not have lots of money in trust fund, I have to work hard, acquire skills and obtain luck to succeed. :-)

elnygren 9y ago

You can only get lucky if you position yourself to be able to get lucky. In addition, you need that carpe diem attitude to exploit any lucky breaks. A business opportunity is not gonna magically appear if you are not constantly looking for one and you won’t be able to exploit it if you haven’t learned relevant skills and built a network.

slivanes 9y ago
Lucky I just happened to be on HN to read this comment, otherwise I wouldn't have known I needed other skills to take advantage of opportunities that arise.
empath75 9y ago
I think one has to be lucky to have talent, and the education and upbringing required to learn how to exploit that talent, in addition to having opportunities to take advantage of it. Not even getting into socio-economic challenges due to race and class.
franzmafka 9y ago
A million factors determine your trajectory long before you either do or do not prepare for this or that opportunity.
- neveroffensive 9y ago
  > A million factors determine your trajectory This is inaccurate, or at the very least, incomplete. Mainly I take issue with the use of the word, "determine". Randomness plays a huge role in the direction of a persons life, there is no denying this. However, a persons trajectory in life is only influenced by this. It's also very much influenced by choice. More importantly, there is ample evidence to suggest that choices can dramatically reduce the influence of randomness. In my mind the equation is something like this: (choices)/(randomness)=(chance of success) Where (randomness) is a constant, and (choices) increases with good directed choices and decreases with bad or indiscriminate choices.
whytaka 9y ago
One could only be so lucky to have the time and resources to be looking for opportunity.
anonemouse145 9y ago
How did you choose who your parents were going to be? What part of your carpe diem attitude helped your mom not do drugs and destroy your gestating brain before you were born? How did you bootstrap your country so that you weren't a victim of war or starvation at a young age? What part of your attitude ensured you were born into a modern society at the right time to be educated, instead of being a pre-agrarian human ancestor? What part of your free will in life ensured you'd be the sort of tech person who'd post on HN rather than perhaps an ascetic who'd be living a life of poverty on the streets of Bangladesh to combat consumerist attitudes? Would that be a wrong choice to make? That said, correlation and causation. The movers and shakers of society are likely to believe they had more control in their life. Not necessarily the other way around. But it can be helpful to envision yourself as being in control of more of your life than you really are.
- neveroffensive 9y ago
  You've brought up a lot of seemingly good points, but I feel you've conflated a lot of things here. First, I think we need to shift the discussion back to the first world. That was what the article was written about. Third world issues are outside the scope of the discussion. At least in the context of the comment you are replying to. Success is going to mean something different when you're country literally doesn't have food. No one is arguing starving children in Bangladesh should be able to be the next CEO of Google. Second, I think you overestimate the extent to which issues like, "mom doing drugs" effect the general population in the first world. I would argue that the majority of unsuccessful people in the first world have not been effected by anything worse than the standard issues which arise from being raised in an impoverished/educationally lacking family environment.
- elnygren 9y ago
  This doesn’t change what I said though does it? I never implied that anyone could do those things. The point was that you’re not automatically participating in the “get lucky to become successful” lottery.
mtgex 9y ago
You can't position yourself to be born a white male, which I believe affords the greatest advantages, and opens the most opportunities of any personal attribute you can have.
- antisthenes 9y ago
  Stop trying to make it a race and gender issue. It helps no one but the rentier class to further divide the people they are extracting profit from. What wealth 'class' you are born into has by far the biggest effect on your chance of success.
  - mtgex 9y ago
    But it is a race and gender issue. I'm not trying to divide people, just stating facts. Attaining wealth is much easier if you're born into a specific race, thus your chances of being born wealthy are directly correlated with your chances of being white. Attaining wealth is much easier if you're male. Among the many reasons are increased career opportunities in general, less chance of a stalled career because of child rearing, greater status in negotiations, etc. All I'm saying is it is incredibly lucky to be born a white male in a society which so highly values them, and try as hard you might, you can't position yourself to get that advantage if you weren't born with it.
    - askafriend 9y ago
      Stop doing this. It is a factor - no one denies that, but it is only one of many factors. You're trying to elevate one factor above others and derailing the higher conversation people are trying to have here. It's just not productive.
      - mtgex 9y ago
        Many people deny this, so I think it is an important part of the higher conversation and inherently productive to discuss. People tend to think luck is heavily about positioning yourself to succeed. I think that's true, but I also believe that the most important factors to putting you in those lucky positions are not in your control. Someone who is not already born into a lucky position has to get even more lucky to succeed. You telling me to simply stop talking about something that I believe is an important point to make is very strange.
georgeecollins 9y ago
That is a great example of confirmation bias. The person who positions themselves for luck deserves credit. And in my experience usually get it. The person who positions themselves for luck and is unlucky, is usually considered less capable.
- elnygren 9y ago
  I agree. I merely stated that it’s not automatic that you are even participating in the lottery of “becoming successful” :)
tghw 9y ago
That logic is inherently flawed because luck plays a part in each of those aspects, too. To have learned the "relevant skills" means you need to have been fortunate enough to have been provided an education. To build a network that matters you need to have access to the right people. Looking for new business opportunities is only possible if you have the resources to do. Eventually, it all goes back to who you were born as and who you were born to. Your odds of "success" are much higher if you're born as a white male in the US than if you're born as an female in rural India. No amount of effort can change those odds. That's not to say that effort doesn't play a part, it absolutely does. But a significant amount of success is supported by good fortune layered on more good fortune.
- elnygren 9y ago
  I agree but I’m not sure why my logic would be flawed because of this
snuxoll 9y ago
Right on the money. I wouldn't be in the position I am today without a dose of luck/chance, I was in the right place at the right time and knew the right people - but at the same time none of this matters if I was unable to execute and take advantage of the opportunities I was presented.
jhayward 9y ago
The luckiest thing that could possibly have happened to you was which geographic area and social status you were born to. How did you manage to position yourself for that?

axiom92 9y ago

I've at times stated that anyone who says that luck isn't important has possibly never had any success in life. There are a lot of things that can go wrong in any pursuit. Hard work shrinks the error bars in the distribution of success but doesn't make them disappear.

bluetwo 9y ago
"The harder you work the luckier you get..."
- confounded 9y ago
  Perhaps true, though working-smart and being affable/networked seems more important than grinding. Still, IME, that variable amount of luck is tiny relative to ‘starting luck’, or straight blind luck. I think it is fair to say that luck ‘compounds’ like interest. Being in a good position generally confers more frequent and higher-value opportunities to get into a better one. Getting lucky early is very important, and the earliest luck you can get is the circumstance of your birth.
- snarf21 9y ago
  Mostly true. There is the other version of "luck favors the prepared". You can get lucky and not be able to capitalize on it.
  - jandrese 9y ago
    Or luck is required, but not sufficient for success. You also have to put in the hard work and be smart. Put another way, you can't win if you never get to play the game. The world no doubt has a bunch of self starting geniuses who are trapped in poverty in some third world country and will never amount to anything. It's an enormous waste of an incredibly rare resource.
- ionvoe3w 9y ago
  True, only to a point. I knew someone who became homeless because the were unlucky enough to develop schizophrenia. They couldn't hold a job, or hold their life together without a lot of help. The assistance they got from the state was not enough to save them from dire poverty. One bad thing led to another. So did they not work hard enough? Another person I knew was kicked out of their parents house when they came out as trans. They were thrown out of their house as a teenager with no money and no relatives to turn to (all the relatives were deeply religious and believed that 'tough love' would make her change her wicked ways). She found work, and eventually got a place to live. But with poor education, and being a social outcast, she could only just make ends meet. It left her vulnerable, and subsequent boyfriends, "friends" and roommates would take advantage of that. Now you can say these are edge cases. I agree. And for most people, the "hard work" advice pays off. But realize how smug it sounds, to proclaim that all you need is hard work, when some people do everything they can and still get stuck.

ythn 9y ago

You can improve your chances of success with hard work/perseverance though. 1. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 2. Give up vs. 1. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 2. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 3. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 4. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 5. Try -> (luck roll) -> fail 6. Try -> (luck roll) -> success!

cdancette 9y ago
Only if you have enough resources to continue.
- matt_wulfeck 9y ago
  1. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 2. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 3. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 4. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 5. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail 6. Try get resources -> (luck roll) -> success!
  - jandrese 9y ago
    Try to get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail Try to get resources -> (luck roll) -> fail Try to get resources -> (luck roll) -> starve to death You see this with people who always have some scheme in the pipeline and may have even had some modest success (and notoriety) with one of the schemes, but ends up dying alone and penniless anyway. They do the work, but never get the break. The world is just unfair sometimes.
  - PsylentKnight 9y ago
    Being fortunate to have a die to roll with is a form of luck. Over 10% of the world lives on less than $1.90 a day, and there's no way out - it's not a matter of determination.

citilife 9y ago

If you sit on the couch all day doing nothing, you wont get lucky. Sure, we can identify "luck" as a path to success, but honestly that seems more like survivor bias.... There are a nearly infinite number of events that had to take place for everything to exist in its current state. We can call it "luck" or "randomness" which then leads to specific actions leading to success. However, in reality we are designed to recognize patterns. If we recognize a pattern and make an attempt to improve our situation, it's not "luck" or "randomness" its a probability of success. Combine that over a life time and persistence will lead to success, not just one random event. It's a series of events that lead to success, each one moving you one way or the other. It's typically your "choice" which path you take. I think these articles rub me the wrong way, because it leads a lot of people to think - "If it's all luck, why bother doing anything?" When in reality it's only you that can get anywhere.

jartelt 9y ago
It's not ALL luck. It's just that luck can push you over the edge towards success. If you and an equally qualified person interview for the same position, the person that gets the position may just be the person who happened to go to the same college as the interviewer or that has the same hobby as the interviewer (so they really hit it off and have a great conversation). In that case, one person was lucky and the other was unlucky. They were both equally qualified, but one person just had something extra to talk about with the interviewer and made a good connection.
chongli 9y ago
You're already lucky if you have a couch to sit on. Plenty of people have no house, let alone couch to sit on. Who you are is substantially a matter of luck, too. Somebody who has two driven parents that spend enormous amounts of time and effort raising them is far more likely to be driven and competitive than a person whose parents lay around smoking weed all day.
- balabaster 9y ago
  What if one parent was never to be found and the other was always at work to ensure you had a roof over your head and as such you were frequently a feral kid? Your genetic makeup is a product of the genetic histories of two people that (perhaps, but not necessarily) fell in love and had a baby. If they were genetically predisposed to large amounts of self discipline, then perhaps you will be too, perhaps not. I'd say this can count as lucky... or unlucky(?) beyond that, all you've got is your own toil, sweat, tears and guile. "Your choices are half chance, so are everybody else's"

whowouldathunk 9y ago

We're on a small rock flying through an infinite universe. Our lives exist in a small blink of time. Computers run billions of operations per second using software with countless defects at every level of the stack. We're lucky anything works at all. In that context, we succeeded just by being born and living as long as we have, and we'd be pretty narrow-minded to assume that the material success we enjoy is significantly more than a series of happy accidents.

dang 9y ago

The study was discussed yesterday at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16496898 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16496898, but I guess we'll not treat the current article as a dupe, since it's a bit better.

polskibus 9y ago
why was the title editorialized? I think it's quite important that the results are in the title.
- dang 9y ago
  If you mean "The Role of Luck in Life Success Is Far Greater Than We Realized", that's misleading because the actual result was the output of a computer simulation. So we took the misleading bit out, per https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. It was also linkbaity, so that guideline applies too. If you mean the title of the other post, it had the same problem and we edited it in response to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16497343 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16497343.

0xcafecafe 9y ago

I think it is more about increasing your "luck surface area". If you are well prepared in your craft you will be better suited to exploit a potential opportunity favorably when the moment comes.

thisisit 9y ago

At the opposite end of the spectrum is modern self-help culture seems to focus entirely on hard work, habits etc. I routinely balk at stuff promoting 7, 10 or 100 habits of successful people, CEO, leaders or otherwise, as if following them blindly will get you any where. While hard work helps, it takes some luck to succeed.

CM30 9y ago
Honestly, most of those pieces are really just cargo culting more than anything else. They don't know exactly why a CEO or leader did well, so they look at their mannerisms and everyday habits and assume those were all things that made them more successful rather than ones they were good enough to overcome/that were completely irrelevant. Well that and the real lessons (aka, luck has a role) isn't quite as soundbite friendly when written in article format.

howeyc 9y ago

That's why you should try you best to enhance your luck factor. http://www.richardwiseman.com/resources/The_Luck_Factor.pdf http://www.richardwiseman.com/resources/The_Luck_Factor.pdf

amoorthy 9y ago

Just read this article. Very cool how the researchers simulated the role luck plays in society with some neat models. The conclusions they reach are fascinating and counter-intuitive e.g. >"[I]f the goal is to reward the most talented person (thus increasing their final level of success), it is much more convenient to distribute periodically (even small) equal amounts of capital to all individuals rather than to give a greater capital only to a small percentage of them, selected through their level of success - already reached - at the moment of the distribution." My two cents from being an entrepreneur: everyone needs luck to succeed but those who are fortunate to have wealth and a support network get far more opportunities for luck to come by. Or, put another way, those with a fortunate background have more chances to fail and find luck eventually than others. Life is not fair but so it is.

noir_lord 9y ago
Perhaps to bastardise an old quote. "When luck turns up it better find you with a bag of cash"
- BatFastard 9y ago
  Love that. I am looking at a great idea that I have been working on, but I am afraid to release it because I know it will be cloned in a matter of months since I can not afford worldwide patent protection.
  - amoorthy 9y ago
    Without much more data I'd say: 1. I once thought the same of an idea I had. When I finally launched it failed. So no one cared to clone it! 2. I have another idea I now think has merit. I've proven some traction with users. Enough that filing a provisional patent makes sense for about $2k. Might want to try this path too.
    - BatFastard 9y ago
      This is not my first time down the primrose path. I already have a few patents in my basket. I been tempted to try filing it myself masochist that I am.

raleec 9y ago

Apologies in advance but I must confess.. I don't get it. Can someone define luck? -I didn't choose my DNA. -I didn't choose my parents. -I didn't choose my circumstances. -I didn't choose which neural pathways were reinforced based on my experiences. -I didn't choose which environmental factors altered any of my biological systems. -I didn't choose not to die in my sleep every night from an undiagnosed ailment. Removing, for the moment whether or not "Free Will" exists... What can anyone choose that isn't based on prior experiences; Experiences that they couldn't control? What can't be attributed to luck?

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
lisper 9y ago
I think most people believe that you can choose, on any given night, to study or play video games. And I think most people believe that if you choose to study then sooner or later you will succeed. And I think most people are wrong on both counts.
- skookumchuck 9y ago
  Studying improves your odds of success. Video games improve your odds of failure. It's your choice.
  - lisper 9y ago
    That's true, but being in the right place at the right time improves your odds of success more.
    - skookumchuck 9y ago
      So put yourself into the right place. There's a reason people move to Silicon Valley, for example. Put the video game console down, turn the TV off, get up and go to where the opportunity is.

skookumchuck 9y ago

Every detail that happens in one's life can be attributed to luck. However, one's choices and effort are what enable one to recognize luck when it appears, and take advantage of it. After all, what are the odds of success for a person who smokes dope and watches TV all day, compared with someone who gets an education and is out there swinging every day?

oldcynic 9y ago

Of course after someone has achieved success they put it down entirely to innate worth, effort, skill and so forth. Likewise plenty who have deserved success have been wiped out by unlucky timing of the dot com bust, credit crunch, fraud. Yes persistence pays, but however unpopular it might be around here, we are nearly all one or two rolls from disaster - be that business failure, major illness, or whatever, that can easily escalate into life ruining proportions. I am far less inclined to simply spout "work hard and make your own luck" now than I would certainly have done in my 20s. Thirty more years of experiencing life, and seeing what sheer luck, good and bad, has done to friends, family and their businesses has changed my perspective on luck quite dramatically. You need hard work and luck.

skookumchuck 9y ago
Luck won't happen to you if you don't get in the game. Getting in the game means getting out there swinging. Getting in the game is a choice you make.
- RobertoG 9y ago
  "Getting in the game is a choice you make." If you are lucky enough to make that choice ;-)
  - skookumchuck 9y ago
    Did you reply to me because luck took hold of your fingers, or did you choose to?
    - drb91 9y ago
      He's replying on this forum because he's lucky enough to have a life with enough leisure time to shitpost on a web forum.
      - skookumchuck 9y ago
        Did luck force you to reply, as well?

matt_wulfeck 9y ago

These kind of articles and discussions almost invariably lead to defeatists and cynical attitudes. It's akin to saying "Unless you're born with good genes, you'll never be an Olympic athlete, so don't bother training and exercising". You may not ever be wealthy by trying and working hard because of the role luck plays. But there's value in working hard at it that everyone should know, just like there's value in physical training that everyone should know. It takes training and (very importantly) discipline to stick with it.

mindcrime 9y ago
It's interesting... there's an anecdote floating around out there somewhere about a famous wrestling coach (quite likely Dan Gable[1]) talking to a group of young wrestlers and telling them something approximately like: "Most of you have the genetics to be an Olympic wrestler. But most of you don't have the work ethic". Of course that's just an amusing anecdote and there's no reason to think that Dan Gable is an expert on genetics. But it's something to think about. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Gable https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Gable
- maxerickson 9y ago
  And what if the personality traits that feed into "work ethic" have a strong genetic component?
  - mindcrime 9y ago
    That's possible. That's one reason I don't take this quote as gospel or anything. Like I said, it's just food for thought. As far as that goes, we don't even know for sure that we have free will and that we ever actually make any decisions at all. Maybe the whole universe it totally deterministic. I mean, it's hard to see an explanation of how it isn't so. That said I prefer (well, I think I prefer) to believe that we do have free will.
alayne 9y ago
Ignoring these external factors isn't going to make them go away and studying them could lead to ideas about removing bias and having more meritocratic systems.

tahw 9y ago

It isn't luck, it's money. Successful entrepreneurs aren't lucky or hard-working, they're just people who have enough cash to operate at a loss while they pursue an idea.

tonyedgecombe 9y ago
You could argue that's luck as well, lucky to have wealthy parents or contacts that can finance your business.

CalmStorm 9y ago

It seems that King Solomon already figured this out: “Again I saw that under the sun the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favor to those with knowledge, but time and chance happen to them all.” ‭‭Ecclesiastes‬ ‭9:11‬ ‭ESV‬‬

ph0rque 9y ago

This study seems like a subtle ad for UBI. If everyone gets more resources, the most talented will be the most successful (instead of the moderately talented but incredibly lucky).

downandout 9y ago

One point of contention I have with this article is that it mentions that many CEOs were born during certain months and have names starting with certain letters. The mere mention of the phrase I am about to use always draws the ire of the HN crowd, but I see a big correlation/causation issue with that specific data point. As for the larger point of the article, I always frame this conversation in this way: if you were lucky enough to be born in a first world country, you can become a millionaire through hard work with relatively little luck involved, but you have to get very lucky to become a billionaire. In other words, the kind of large scale success that it takes to become a billionaire is nearly always dependent upon numerous factors outside of your own control, any one of which could easily put billionaire status out of reach. Becoming a single digit millionaire, however, can be done by anyone of at least average intelligence, that is willing to work long and hard in a field that has historically paid its workers well. Jobs in technology, finance, medicine, and even some trades (master plumbers/electricians etc.), pay well enough that anyone who manages their money properly should be on track to become a millionaire at some point during their lifetime.

antisthenes 9y ago
Just for clarification, when you mean millionaire, do you mean a positive net worth of $1,000,000 or just having earned $1,000,000 in some arbitrary period of time?
- downandout 9y ago
  I meant a net worth of at least $1MM.
  - tonyedgecombe 9y ago
    Yet there are plenty of people that work very hard without reaching that goal.
    - logfromblammo 9y ago
      I think that the point was that everyone can make conscious choices that will lead to millionaire status. Avoidable mistakes can derail that, but cautious living can eliminate the luck factor. Anyone born in the US, regardless of social status or ability, can become educated as an electrician, gain work experience up to master status, then incorporate as a subcontractor business to employ both less-experienced and less-ambitious electricians. Between the value of the business and index fund investments, and judicious use of insurance, that person will be a millionaire (by net worth) by the time they reach age 65. If you choose to work at McDonald's when you graduate high school instead of the journeyman program of IBEW Local X, or even choose a less valuable skill in the building trades, the path is more difficult, more competitive, and less forgiving, but is still theoretically possible. If you go to college and get an engineering degree, the path is easier, but requires more up-front investment. If you go to college and get a degree in art history, that might be one of those avoidable mistakes that I mentioned earlier. One of the decisions that must be made is "how many children will I support?" If you want to be a millionaire, the correct answer is zero. If you abandon completely the idea of raising children, you can certainly be a millionaire by the time you retire. The process will usually include establishing yourself as a small-business owner with near-guaranteed local demand. Most professions simply do not earn enough to provide sufficient margins for savings and investment unless you also employ the labor of someone besides yourself.

StriverGuy 9y ago

The most important quote: "In general, those with greater talent had a higher probability of increasing their success by exploiting the possibilities offered by luck. Also, the most successful agents were mostly at least average in talent. So talent mattered."

tacomonstrous 9y ago
I don't understand this artificial distinction between talent and luck. Isn't one lucky to possess the talent in the first place? What one does to develop that talent into something meaningful is of course a different matter.

juanmirocks 9y ago

And then the problem is that we are biased to believe that the winners did almost everything right, and the losers did almost everything wrong. Often is chance. Having said that, those who persevere, by definition are more likely to succeed. They have more changes. "The harder I work, the luckier I get".

internetman55 9y ago
Maybe I have a stronger intrinsic work motivation than most people, but I seem to get luckier when I slow down, assess the situation, and start making simple but sometimes extremely emotionally difficult changes.
- juanmirocks 9y ago
  Well, I think your scenario applies to another idea: most often we avoid doing that thing that really is the most important, because we emotionally fear it somehow. It can be just calling a client, or changing a career, or even translates for asking a partner out. For this, you are right, it is vital to stop from time to time, assess the situation, identify the most important thing, and regardless of how difficult it is, do it.
  - juanmirocks 9y ago
    And you are right, often in hustle mode we go fast and work hard, but don't work intelligently. I'm trying myself to incorporate forced "retreats or slow-downs" to better assess my progress.

nilanjanmishra 9y ago

I believe being at the right place at the right time with the right people matters a lot. And the 'right' part of this equation is more luck than talent, although preparation can definitely help.

SomeHacker44 9y ago

I attest to this. I have had a reasonable success in life (built and sold a few companies, have a financial cushion, a home, a small plane, etc.). I have done everything well and with diligence but when I look at the flow of my life, the financial success came primarily from luck. Being at the right place at the right time. Having a good idea at the right time. Knowing the right people at the right time. Having the right product pivot in the right market conditions. Many of these things worked out because of circumstances beyond my ability to predict and control. I have had a similar amount of failures and my ability to predict what will be successful is limited to nil. Yes, I worked hard and put my all into everything, but so do many others I know. I was also fortunate (lucky!) to have support systems and friends which allowed me to take risks that turned out to be rewarding. I also try to spread the rewards and recognize those people who have allowed me to find this lucky success. I also have the luck to be in a country that has reasonable government and infrastructure (perhaps notwithstanding the last year or two), lucky to have chosen economically stable parents who gave me a top education without debt at the end, lucky to have chosen (ha) white privilege which I didn’t fully understand or appreciate until the last decade and try hard to expand to everyone now. Yes, I made some circumstances to benefit from the luck. But so have others who have not experienced the luck. I am grateful for my luck and work to enable others to have a good life without the same luck. There but for the grace (of god or gaia or luck) go I.

mv4 9y ago
Luck plays a huge role. However, it does help when one can recognize a rare opportunity, and can quickly act on it (take that meeting, show up at that event, say the right thing).

lisper 9y ago

I am financially independent and it is almost entirely due to luck. I was in a stable career as an AI researcher when, in 2000, pretty much on a whim, I decided to apply to work at an obscure little startup company called Google. It was the only startup I had ever applied to at that point (until then my ambition had been to become a university professor). Since 2005 I have participated as a principal in half a dozen other startups. They all failed. Being in the right place at the right time makes a much bigger difference than effort or ability. Working hard and being skilled can help tilt the odds in your favor, but they are neither necessary nor sufficient for success.

psyc 9y ago
Around 2001, a cohort of recent grads was working on an obscure experimental thing at Microsoft that never went anywhere. Half of the group went to Mountain View, and half stayed in Redmond. The first half are all millionaires now, and the second half are just well-off. You can look at this from many directions. Did the natural hustlers hustle their way to Google, while the naturally complacent stayed put? Did the Googlers just go there because that's where their friends went, or because they thought it was cool? Did the Mountain View people catch the fever after the fact, and become hustlers, while the Redmond people absorbed the relatively relaxed culture there? Did everyone just go where they thought was best and then it turned out one of those places was saturated in money?
- aje403 9y ago
  Sounds like the Monty Hall problem :) keep your door or switch. I'd say the ones who left were wiser ex-ante
- sokoloff 9y ago
  I would be shocked if more than 10% of those recent grads who were working at Microsoft in 2001 and stayed in the industry anywhere are not now millionaires. (It's not that high nor noteworthy of a hurdle for our industry.)
aje403 9y ago
You were an AI researcher in 2000 and decided to take a risk and join a startup, this is a very poor definition of luck. Luck does always belong in the conversation - "All great events hang by a hair, I believe in luck, and the wise man neglects nothing which contributes to his destiny"

yhavr 9y ago

Define luck. The Universe by definition isn't deterministic starting from three particles in classical mechanics and one particle in the quantum case. Define success. Is it doing what you like being surrounded by people you love? Or has it to be a mansion and a yacht? Without proper definitions the entire discussion is useless. For example, I state that I have already succeed not because of luck, but because of my free will. And all further improvements in my life will be just better grades of success. Argument 'if a raptor didn't kill that butterfly far far ago you would now be slave to the vicious Uganda Empire' doesn't fit, as it can by applied to every statement. Argument that I don't have a yacht doesn't fit, as "yachts are for loosers" and success isn't tied to material posessions.

vladmk 9y ago

I agree with this article, but a healthy way to look at for me is multipliers. Example, success will get you there, but luck is the multiplier. Example lets say you work super hard and become a millionaire, you run a 2 million dollar company. I think it's realistic, however your friend with the 20 million dollar company and 200 million dollar company probably didn't work that much harder than you, they just chose better fields and where at the right place at the right time. Another example non-business wise is genetics. Example: you can work your ass off and be a really good basketball player, you'll have fun, you'll get admiration, but to be an NBA superstar you need a ton of luck involved ie lack of injuries, right coaches, right genetics. That doesn't mean quit improving as a basketball player or quit that business, it just means try your best and admit luck is a factor.

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jedberg 9y ago

Here's my feeling on luck: You have some control over your own luck, ie. you can make your own luck. The key is to maximize your own opportunities for luck. For example, when I heard about the very first startup school, I didn't really have the money to go to Boston. But I found a really cheap flight at a terrible time, found a floor to sleep on in Boston, and went. And in doing that, I met Steve and Alexis and ended up working at Reddit, which made a huge difference in my life. At that point the luck that I can't control kicked in (them wanting to hire me). But I only met them because I made it a point to find them and meet them and say hello, and it would have never happened if I hadn't figured out a way to get there in the first place and made sure to meet them. Things like this happen all the time. I look for opportunities were I can "increase my potential for lucky things". Sometimes that means going out of my comfort zone, or asking for something that may be a bit unexpected or there is a good chance someone will say no.

iamleppert 9y ago

If the only thing that gets you out of bed in the morning is the blind pursuit of “success” for that alone, or money, that makes me sad.

marnett 9y ago
Unfortunately that is an overwhelmingly large amount of people.

pitchups 9y ago

One of the most important takeaways from this article, is not what the title suggests, but the consequence of it being true for society. It is buried in the middle of the article and if true, is must-reading for everyone who determines public policy or funds startups: "[I]f the goal is to reward the most talented person (thus increasing their final level of success), it is much more convenient to distribute periodically (even small) equal amounts of capital to all individuals rather than to give a greater capital only to a small percentage of them, selected through their level of success - already reached - at the moment of the distribution."