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I agree China does not yet surpass all other nations regarding creating innovations in AI, although they have come close to the top of the league. As shown by

I agree China does not yet surpass all other nations regarding creating innovations in AI, although they have come close to the top of the league. As shown by PISA and other international tests, the percentage of AI-capable people varies wildly among the populations in that 7.4 billion global pool. China performs very well, esp relative to their development level, and above most OECD countries. http://ncee.org/2016/12/pisa-2015-results/ http://ncee.org/2016/12/pisa-2015-results/ If China can hold onto most of its talent, it would be a relatively large percentage (say 4-5%) of 1.4 billion vs a smaller percentage (2.0-2.5%) of 1.3 billion (OECD country populations) and a very small percentage (say 0.2-0.5%) from 4.9 billion (the rest of the world) who can potentially work productively in AI. This assumes the Gaussian distribution of education quality, skills, and perserverance and a fairly high bar (2+ SD above OECD average) for a lower threshold to work competently in AI. It is obvious that not all talent in the latter two would like to immigrate to the US, so it is unclear if the US will continue to have a quantitative advantage despite a more global talent pool. Chinese government's deliberate policy in nurturing and developing AI talent will also add to the number of local practitioners. There is also clear evidence that more Chinese nationals are moving back home after graduating from abroad. The rough estimates above are relevant for AI optimizations and applications in many real-world settings since a sufficient quantity of R&D practitioners is necessary for that. For breakthroughs, other factors might come into play and it is not clear if cultural factors and upbringing would affect the potentials of people to create paradigm-shifting ideas, which means quantitative analysis in isolation is not nearly as predictive.

seanmcdirmid 9y ago
Except those PISA tests only compare urban shanghai to larger more diverse samples in the western world, this is not a very good metric, while education in china is hard from uniform! But sure, not all is going to be even in 7.4 billion people, like not everyone in china is a smart scientist rather than a taxi driver or fuwuyuan. 2% is way too high, especially considering that education on average in china is still much worse than the west. The number of Chinese returning after studying abroad is increasing because the numbers studying abroad are increasing, these are mostly rich fuerdai kids not studying STEM who have no chance getting jobs in the west anyways; the amount of STEM talent retained, especially at the important post graduate level, has remained fairly constant. Overall, China cannot achieve dominance in this area with its current policy of nationalistic tech isolationism (e.g. blocking off internet sites, not allowing immigration). Even if we ignore the west, there is still India and other countries that have large roles to play; that have their own promising characteristics.
- nopinsight 9y ago
  I referred to the 2015 PISA test when making those estimates. In 2015, four Chinese provinces took the test including Guangdong, which student's native language is often not mandarin. Their total population is 230 million people. Granted, they are likely above China's average in terms of skills but I read elsewhere that someone involved in PISA said regarding about unofficial PISA 2009 research in other Chinese provinces that even some very poor regions scored close to OECD average. We will likely see China's whole country results in 2019 when PISA 2018 official results come out and I believe it will still be better in math than many OECD countries. Your point regarding lower average quality of education in China could be true but that means in 10 years they could be improved with economic development and their skills would be even better than now. Developed countries in East Asia and Singapore where populations share the same cultural traits with China have for some time dominate PISA rankings in all subjects. India has many talented people but because of many factors, as a percentage, the figure is probably many times lower than China. Check out their former PISA results before they pulled out. They will improve but it is a long way to go and we know from history that network effects and other factors tend to make tech dominance into natural monopoly, at least until a major paradigm shift happens. No other country has both the size of native population and the distribution of population's skill levels taken together to compete on equal footing with China in the next 1-2 decades. The US can hold its own and perhaps keep the lead by being a desirable place for global top talent but it remains to be seen if the government's policy and other factors will erode that advantage away.
  - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
    Also note that China doesn’t have mandatory schooling after grade 9, while western countries do. That is another source of bias when comparing high school students between the two countries. These numbers are BS for many of those reasons.
    - nopinsight 9y ago
      Thanks for the reminder about that selection bias! Then we’ll need to lower the number of total population used to calculate AI-capable natives somewhat. Given data on primary vs secondary school enrollment, the adjustment ratio is about 0.65. That would adjust the relevant population size down to about 0.9 billion. This has been an interesting exploration and shows how hard it is to predict the future given so many factors involved. I still believe the broad-stroke prediction that China will lead in AI-based technologies in 2030 will still come true though.

seanmcdirmid 9y ago

Except those PISA tests only compare urban shanghai to larger more diverse samples in the western world, this is not a very good metric, while education in china is hard from uniform! But sure, not all is going to be even in 7.4 billion people, like not everyone in china is a smart scientist rather than a taxi driver or fuwuyuan. 2% is way too high, especially considering that education on average in china is still much worse than the west. The number of Chinese returning after studying abroad is increasing because the numbers studying abroad are increasing, these are mostly rich fuerdai kids not studying STEM who have no chance getting jobs in the west anyways; the amount of STEM talent retained, especially at the important post graduate level, has remained fairly constant. Overall, China cannot achieve dominance in this area with its current policy of nationalistic tech isolationism (e.g. blocking off internet sites, not allowing immigration). Even if we ignore the west, there is still India and other countries that have large roles to play; that have their own promising characteristics.

nopinsight 9y ago
I referred to the 2015 PISA test when making those estimates. In 2015, four Chinese provinces took the test including Guangdong, which student's native language is often not mandarin. Their total population is 230 million people. Granted, they are likely above China's average in terms of skills but I read elsewhere that someone involved in PISA said regarding about unofficial PISA 2009 research in other Chinese provinces that even some very poor regions scored close to OECD average. We will likely see China's whole country results in 2019 when PISA 2018 official results come out and I believe it will still be better in math than many OECD countries. Your point regarding lower average quality of education in China could be true but that means in 10 years they could be improved with economic development and their skills would be even better than now. Developed countries in East Asia and Singapore where populations share the same cultural traits with China have for some time dominate PISA rankings in all subjects. India has many talented people but because of many factors, as a percentage, the figure is probably many times lower than China. Check out their former PISA results before they pulled out. They will improve but it is a long way to go and we know from history that network effects and other factors tend to make tech dominance into natural monopoly, at least until a major paradigm shift happens. No other country has both the size of native population and the distribution of population's skill levels taken together to compete on equal footing with China in the next 1-2 decades. The US can hold its own and perhaps keep the lead by being a desirable place for global top talent but it remains to be seen if the government's policy and other factors will erode that advantage away.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  Also note that China doesn’t have mandatory schooling after grade 9, while western countries do. That is another source of bias when comparing high school students between the two countries. These numbers are BS for many of those reasons.
  - nopinsight 9y ago
    Thanks for the reminder about that selection bias! Then we’ll need to lower the number of total population used to calculate AI-capable natives somewhat. Given data on primary vs secondary school enrollment, the adjustment ratio is about 0.65. That would adjust the relevant population size down to about 0.9 billion. This has been an interesting exploration and shows how hard it is to predict the future given so many factors involved. I still believe the broad-stroke prediction that China will lead in AI-based technologies in 2030 will still come true though.