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Capitulation. Flight to quality will go right into crypto.
by KasianFranks 9y ago
Capitulation. Flight to quality will go right into crypto.
- joezydeco 9y agoThey're fleeing into bonds.
- freejulian 9y agoThat’s a bad idea. Yields can’t exactly go much lower.
- Finnucane 9y ago+2 beats -12.
- freejulian 9y agoAs more people flee to bonds the price rises, sending yields even lower. Also, inflation is higher than 2%, so you’re still losing money. Bitcoin is the only safehaven in times like these, the market just hasn’t realized it yet.
- chefkoch 9y ago>Bitcoin is the only safehaven in times like these, the market just hasn’t realized it yet. So it doesn't work?
- radicaldreamer 9y agoIt's better to hold onto your money than to lose it.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- joezydeco 9y ago"The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury debt hit a four-year high of 2.885 percent, having jumped almost 7 basis points on Friday." https://www.nasdaq.com/article/wall-st-opens-lower-on-rising-bond-yields-inflation-concerns-20180205-00756 https://www.nasdaq.com/article/wall-st-opens-lower-on-rising... Tax cut stimulus + already stimulated economy = inflation. Inflation concerns = higher bond yields. Higher bond yields = people dumping stocks for bonds.
- freejulian 9y agoInflation is higher than 2.885%. Anyone buying bonds now is A) causing yields to drop B) still losing money to inflation.
- efuquen 9y agoNo, it isn't. Inflation hasn't event hit 2% (Fed goal) yet. https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-inflation-rate-statistics-and-news-3306139 https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-inflation-rate-statis...
- dragonwriter 9y ago> Inflation is higher than 2.885% Official BLS has had it at a 2.0% annual rate for the first half of 2017 and a 1.7% for the second; some citation would be welcome on the claim that it's jumped to something above a 2.885% annual rate since...
- freejulian 9y agoSorry, inflation in the price of things people actually want to buy. The government has every incentive to lie about real inflation.
- dragonwriter 9y ago> Sorry, inflation in the price of things people actually want to buy And still, actual evidence that the rate of inflation “in the price of things people want to buy” is 2.885% or higher is missing. Trying to blur the topic is not a substitute for supporting your fact claims.
- dragonwriter 9y agoThen why aren't we seeing a parallel run-up in cryptocurrency?
- madeuptempacct 9y agoThe theory is that the market crashes and people flee into precious metals and crypto (for the first time). The former happened - gold and silver are up, the latter did not. To elaborate - putting money into market NOW is bad - we are in recession land, crypto should be an alternative and "should" be increasing in value because people have free money(tax returns) and no "good" conventional places to put it. Except it's not happening, and that sucks for those in crypto.
- KasianFranks 9y agoWait until the 14th
- dragonwriter 9y agoWhy would people selling stocks now hold cash until the 14th, and only then move into cryptocurrency?
- KasianFranks 9y agoIn market conditions like this maybe you've heard that some subscribe to the financial maxim that "cash is king".
- dragonwriter 9y agoSure, the maxim exists. What I'm interested in is the reasoning beyond the suggestion that the 14th is a magic date on which money that has moved to from stocks (and, in point of fact, cryptocurrency!) to cash for stability will suddenly decide, en masse, to move into cryptocurrency because “quality”.
- buttcoinslol 9y agoI shorted the S&P instead and made a 12% return on that position today, protecting my long positions. Bitcoin is down 12% today with no sign of stopping it's movement downwards, and all crypto prices are tied to bitcoin. Traders more conservative than myself moved into bonds today. Other traders chose gold. Very few chose cryptocurrencies.
- adsfasdfsad111 9y agoThe move in crypto is tied to the move in the markets. The SP500 has much more to fall yet.
- rmrm 9y agoI think it has always been a reasonable assumption that a fall in the real economy would cause cryptos to fall. Play money gets liquidated first when real money (in 401k and stocks) evaporates. And the lack of liquidity in cryptos would cause it to fall faster.
- rmrm 9y agoFriday before last I moved 70% out of stocks and bought PUTs in July as insurance on the rest. However, as my history has shown me - one doesnt assume this makes them smart. Could just have been lucky, this time.
- buttcoinslol 9y agoI like to think that you can't time the market, but you get lucky sometimes. > However, as my history has shown me - one doesnt assume this makes them smart. No doubt. In my case, I still need to close out my short position so I'm only halfway there.
- fwdpropaganda 9y agoWhen did you short S&P? Was it because you saw it starting to go down, or did you have some way of telling ahead of time this was going to happen?
- zawerf 9y agoBitcoin dropped from a $19k all time high to around 6.5k recently. Most other cryptocurrency are doing about the same.
- AndrewUnmuted 9y agoCan we stop calling these cryptocurrencies "crypto"? That shorthand belongs to the people developing cryptographic encryption technologies.
- throwaway30yo 9y agoYou are correct, but that battle is lost.
- Atheros 9y agoWords don't belong to anyone unless you register a trademark or some equivalent. People refer to cryptocurrency far more frequently than cryptographic algorithms lately; it's inevitable that they would start appropriating the shorthand word.
- dvfjsdhgfv 9y agoI think most people stopped caring a month ago, this stupid name is going to stay.
- adsfasdfsad111 9y agocryto = cryptocurrency now... the masses say so. You can start using the full term "cryptographic encryption" instead.
- fwdpropaganda 9y agoGatekeeping detected. https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Gatekeeping https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Gatekeeping
- dang 9y agoPlease don't do this here.
- fwdpropaganda 9y agoIs your issue specifically that I posted a link to urban dictionary or that I posted an accusation of gatekeeping?
- bigbluedots 9y agoBitcoin is on a far bigger nosedive. Why would anyone want to buy now?
- charlesdm 9y agoBecause people might think this is (close to) the bottom.