5 ms·

Having lived, worked and now running a B2B SaaS company there, the growth is real. Are the numbers exactly right, of course not. China is a massive, complex and

by jbrun 9y ago

Having lived, worked and now running a B2B SaaS company there, the growth is real. Are the numbers exactly right, of course not. China is a massive, complex and not entirely transparent mesh of interests. Long story short though, there is a real middle class in China that is driving real consumer demand. This is starkly different to India, South Africa or Brazil where no real middle class exists. Much longer thoughts on America vs. China http://www.jonathanbrun.com/who-will-lead-the-world/ http://www.jonathanbrun.com/who-will-lead-the-world/

DSingularity 9y ago
The middle class in America is disappearing I think. Chinese is probably the best language to have as the secondary.
- workthrowaway27 9y ago
  How easily can a non-ethnic Chinese person integrate into Chinese society though?
  - jbrun 9y ago
    You have to marry Chinese.
    - ddorian43 9y ago
      Damn Zuckerberg many steps ahead
    - horsecaptin 9y ago
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2_L71lFItk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2_L71lFItk
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - logfromblammo 9y ago
    China (practically synonymous with Han ethnicity) has been shockingly racist by modern western standards for thousands of years. And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the last 200 years. White people earned temporary, grudging status as near-equals by making a colossal pile of money while building massive new empires around the world, while China was busy still being the best China that ever China'd. The thought in the back of the Han-Chinese mind is that the success of the West is but a temporary condition, and that once the technological gap closes, China will once again be the undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people. There is almost zero self-awareness of their own racism, and barely an inkling of consideration that racism might even be bad. China is 92% Han. The remaining 8% are largely sequestered in poor regions of the interior, like the Indian reservations in the US, so any city you are likely to visit for business or tourism will be 99.9% Han. And if you are not already Chinese, it is nigh-impossible to gain citizenship without being a full-blooded Han (tragically born into the wrong country) or by marrying a native. So don't pin your hopes on being able to follow the money if China becomes the dominant global economy.
    - iforgotpassword 9y ago
      > undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people. Funny thats pretty much what the average Joe thinks about the US. I don't know how you ended up with that twisted opinion, but after working in software development in Beijing for almost two years I can't share these views at all. I perceived my colleagues as pragmatic, forward-looking, interested in politics regarding China and the world, with critical opinions on each of them. I rarely had so many insightful discussions about various political and social aspects as when I stayed there.
      - thenanyu 9y ago
        All of this can be true at once—I have relatives who hold all of these positions. Like the US, China is a big country, with folks on all sides of the political spectrum. (the following is based on personal experience so YMMV) If anything, they have a longer term perspective on history. It's an ancient civilization and they have seen it all. There are those who think it's inevitable that China will eventually be on top once again, but generally, even they are pretty humble going about it and eager to learn from Westerners and imitate what works (sometimes resulting in IP violations or cargo culting).
anthonyleecook 9y ago
China may have a middle class, but that middle class is still making a low $1000/month, even if that middle class is slightly bigger than 100M Also, lots of Chinese local governments have confessed to faking data. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1F60I1 https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id... http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-falsified-economic-data/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-... In addition, if you check out Anne Stevenson yang, a China expert living in China, she said the real gdp growth is only 1-2%
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- jbrun 9y ago
  For example, we pay out team in Shanghai between 3000 USD and 1000 USD per month. They represent the middle class. Yes, it is less than many in the US, but it is still high enough to enjoy consumer products, travel, and invest in their future and their children's. Plus salaries are increasing 2-3% a year. Government spending on infrastructure is a huge part of GDP, but if you take the high speed trains in China you will see that every seat is sold out and they are not that cheap and if you go to a Chinese tourist location, it is packed, and tickets to enter can easily be 30-40$. This is anecdotal evidence of course, but I would recommend a trip to China - both coastal and interior - if you are so skeptical. Flights are cheap!
  - anthonyleecook 9y ago
    Oh I lived in Pudong for a while ;). I will have to disagree with you. It was also very busy for US in 2007, during the housing bubble. And it was busy for Japan in 1989, during the asset bubble. There is little reason for China to be able to escape its massive bubble right now.
    - pwaai 9y ago
      China is literally following step by step where Japan was, fighting debt with more debt, until they could no longer defend it. It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films. If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when the Chinese political elite send their kids away from China, along with wealth... In my humble opinion, the American empire is probably the most efficient and anti-fragile system set in human history because it feeds off on our weakness for rare material goods. I will have to agree with Warren Buffett that the next 100+ years for America will be very good indeed for business. Majority of the network is on an English speaking framework, it's unlikely to switch to hieroglyphics and archaic Confucian values that oppressed individual freedom. tl;dr: China won't usurp the US hegemony without surpassing its military and its transnational and intranational reach through corporatism. Soft power plays a huge role and its not something communist architectures are known for. Otherwise, American elites would be fighting to send their kids to the dreamy foggy lands of Beijing University. The US model is to provide a platform where American corporations can thrive, with money or bullets. It's a system where the value of every nation's money is backed by it's own fiat currency, guaranteeing the #1 position as long as there isn't a civil war or something like that divides the country. The only people that believe PRC will overtake the US are Chinese folks and through Chinese diaspora that bought the line.
vfulco 9y ago
Running a relatively new global professional services company in Shanghai for 2 years, I really appreciate the perspective. Growth "feels" weak but not too and slightly stronger than 6 months ago. I can only speak to things I hear from other expats and my focused areas of English resume writing, Linkedin Profile editing, interview coaching, salary negotiations and assisting academics to get into foreign undergrad/grad/PhD programs. All the best, Vince

by jbrun 9y ago

DSingularity 9y ago

The middle class in America is disappearing I think. Chinese is probably the best language to have as the secondary.

workthrowaway27 9y ago
How easily can a non-ethnic Chinese person integrate into Chinese society though?
- jbrun 9y ago
  You have to marry Chinese.
  - ddorian43 9y ago
    Damn Zuckerberg many steps ahead
  - horsecaptin 9y ago
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2_L71lFItk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2_L71lFItk
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- logfromblammo 9y ago
  China (practically synonymous with Han ethnicity) has been shockingly racist by modern western standards for thousands of years. And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the last 200 years. White people earned temporary, grudging status as near-equals by making a colossal pile of money while building massive new empires around the world, while China was busy still being the best China that ever China'd. The thought in the back of the Han-Chinese mind is that the success of the West is but a temporary condition, and that once the technological gap closes, China will once again be the undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people. There is almost zero self-awareness of their own racism, and barely an inkling of consideration that racism might even be bad. China is 92% Han. The remaining 8% are largely sequestered in poor regions of the interior, like the Indian reservations in the US, so any city you are likely to visit for business or tourism will be 99.9% Han. And if you are not already Chinese, it is nigh-impossible to gain citizenship without being a full-blooded Han (tragically born into the wrong country) or by marrying a native. So don't pin your hopes on being able to follow the money if China becomes the dominant global economy.
  - iforgotpassword 9y ago
    > undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people. Funny thats pretty much what the average Joe thinks about the US. I don't know how you ended up with that twisted opinion, but after working in software development in Beijing for almost two years I can't share these views at all. I perceived my colleagues as pragmatic, forward-looking, interested in politics regarding China and the world, with critical opinions on each of them. I rarely had so many insightful discussions about various political and social aspects as when I stayed there.
    - thenanyu 9y ago
      All of this can be true at once—I have relatives who hold all of these positions. Like the US, China is a big country, with folks on all sides of the political spectrum. (the following is based on personal experience so YMMV) If anything, they have a longer term perspective on history. It's an ancient civilization and they have seen it all. There are those who think it's inevitable that China will eventually be on top once again, but generally, even they are pretty humble going about it and eager to learn from Westerners and imitate what works (sometimes resulting in IP violations or cargo culting).

anthonyleecook 9y ago

China may have a middle class, but that middle class is still making a low $1000/month, even if that middle class is slightly bigger than 100M Also, lots of Chinese local governments have confessed to faking data. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1F60I1 https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id... http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-falsified-economic-data/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-... In addition, if you check out Anne Stevenson yang, a China expert living in China, she said the real gdp growth is only 1-2%

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
jbrun 9y ago
For example, we pay out team in Shanghai between 3000 USD and 1000 USD per month. They represent the middle class. Yes, it is less than many in the US, but it is still high enough to enjoy consumer products, travel, and invest in their future and their children's. Plus salaries are increasing 2-3% a year. Government spending on infrastructure is a huge part of GDP, but if you take the high speed trains in China you will see that every seat is sold out and they are not that cheap and if you go to a Chinese tourist location, it is packed, and tickets to enter can easily be 30-40$. This is anecdotal evidence of course, but I would recommend a trip to China - both coastal and interior - if you are so skeptical. Flights are cheap!
- anthonyleecook 9y ago
  Oh I lived in Pudong for a while ;). I will have to disagree with you. It was also very busy for US in 2007, during the housing bubble. And it was busy for Japan in 1989, during the asset bubble. There is little reason for China to be able to escape its massive bubble right now.
  - pwaai 9y ago
    China is literally following step by step where Japan was, fighting debt with more debt, until they could no longer defend it. It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films. If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when the Chinese political elite send their kids away from China, along with wealth... In my humble opinion, the American empire is probably the most efficient and anti-fragile system set in human history because it feeds off on our weakness for rare material goods. I will have to agree with Warren Buffett that the next 100+ years for America will be very good indeed for business. Majority of the network is on an English speaking framework, it's unlikely to switch to hieroglyphics and archaic Confucian values that oppressed individual freedom. tl;dr: China won't usurp the US hegemony without surpassing its military and its transnational and intranational reach through corporatism. Soft power plays a huge role and its not something communist architectures are known for. Otherwise, American elites would be fighting to send their kids to the dreamy foggy lands of Beijing University. The US model is to provide a platform where American corporations can thrive, with money or bullets. It's a system where the value of every nation's money is backed by it's own fiat currency, guaranteeing the #1 position as long as there isn't a civil war or something like that divides the country. The only people that believe PRC will overtake the US are Chinese folks and through Chinese diaspora that bought the line.

vfulco 9y ago

Running a relatively new global professional services company in Shanghai for 2 years, I really appreciate the perspective. Growth "feels" weak but not too and slightly stronger than 6 months ago. I can only speak to things I hear from other expats and my focused areas of English resume writing, Linkedin Profile editing, interview coaching, salary negotiations and assisting academics to get into foreign undergrad/grad/PhD programs. All the best, Vince