13 ms·

Cape Town could be the first city to run out of water

204 points by tonteldoos 9y ago

pjc50 9y ago
Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, has already run out of water. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-blockade-redcross/2-5-million-yemenis-now-lack-access-to-clean-water-red-cross-idUSKBN1DK1ZP https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-blockade-r... There were serious problems before the war, but now it's just a disaster area. The US supports this.
- SideburnsOfDoom 9y ago
  The difference is, Cape Town is not in war time. I can't think of the last time there was literal war in Cape Town, there's nothing in recent times. My best guess would be "a small but significant military engagement" on 8 January 1806 (1). Unrest in the late 1980s doesn't count. As far as I know, there were no military engagements in Cape Town during the Anglo-Boer wars (1880 - 1881 and 1899 – 1902). 1 ) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blaauwberg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blaauwberg
  - overlordalex 9y ago
    There was some action in World War 2 with shipping around the peninsula, but nothing in the city itself
    - SideburnsOfDoom 9y ago
      Right. Nothing that would destroy the city's pipes or other infrastructure, and therefor ability to manage water, in that.
    - chesimov 9y ago
      Yes, U-boats sank merchant shipping in Table Bay
  - oneweekwonder 9y ago
    > is not in war time Maybe not physical destruction. But "war time" is something that will get decided by historians in 20 years time. In a more cyber conscience world social engineering of the state[0] will become a act of war... or something in that line, I hope. gobble gobble [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gupta_family https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gupta_family
    - SideburnsOfDoom 9y ago
      I totally get that there is tension and conflict in the situation. Other comments allude to the tension between Local and national governments (1) and there may be an element that the National government is neglecting CT or actively wanting it to fail. I don't think though this is the same as a city like Sanaa being shelled into rubble (2) 1) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16176394 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16176394 2) https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/inside-war-torn-yemens-capital/ https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/inside-war-torn-yemens-capi... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoZsjagnKPs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoZsjagnKPs
  - m0llusk 9y ago
    Yemen was nearly running out of water even before the war started. In any case these are quibbles. Yemen and South Africa having cities without water should be a major alarm to all civic leaders.
- tici_88 9y ago
  It is not just the US. Canada in recent years signed a $15Bln contract to supply the Saudi Arabia rulers with weapons. (I was going to say 'government but 'rulers' feels more appropriate in this case). Saudi Arabia is at war with Yemen and the war is causing the humanitarian crisis described in the above article.
  - arethuza 9y ago
    Indeed, the UK position is "We'll support the Saudis in every practical way short of engaging in combat.": https://www.caat.org.uk/campaigns/stop-arming-saudi/arms-sales https://www.caat.org.uk/campaigns/stop-arming-saudi/arms-sal...
    - toyg 9y ago
      Same for Italy, we tripled arms sales to them in the last two years and Parliament recently voted not to restrict the flow despite the conflict in Yemen.
overlordalex 9y ago
I live in Cape Town, and this article is missing some points about whats been going on: 1. "Day 0" has been moved forward - we're now expected to run out of water 21 April. 2. The daily limit of water per person is 87l but only ~50% of consumers meet this target 3. This is considered a 1/1000 year event (in contrast to 1/100 experienced elsewhere in the country recently). However due to increased population this is being called "the new normal". 4. Water allocation between residential/agriculture was done at some national level, meaning the province wasn't able to manage the supplies correctly. 5. 6/7 water relief projects are behind schedule - these include desalination plants and aquifer pumps. 6. We lose 15% of our water through leaks - much lower than the world average but not as good as the best (around 10% in Australia and New Zealand) Some other personal notes: 1. There has been talk of tapping the aquifers for decades - the studies haven't been prioritised and we still don't know how much we can safely take. The outlying areas of Cape Town are essentially marshes and during normal rainfall seasons are prone to flooding, so there is definitely some space but noone knows how much. 2. The city has lost R1.6b ($130m) in water fees due to reduced usage, so now we're facing a "drought tax". To me this is bullshit but thats a whole other post. 3. The restrictions should not be eased once the dams are full - with climate change and increasing population its only a matter of time until we run out of water and no amount of rainfall is going to help 4. When we run out of water there will be water trucks and collections points, but there has been no talk of sanitation - I suspect a lot of people are going to get really sick.
- snowwolf 9y ago
  Its just been announced that from Feb 1st the daily limit is going to be 50l and the drought tax is off the table. https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-01-18-de-lille-pushes-the-drought-panic-button/ https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-01-18-de-...
- nukeop 9y ago
  I thought climate change was supposed to provide easier access to water?
  - pjc50 9y ago
sgt 9y ago
It's definitely a big problem, yet I see a lot of creative solutions which gives us a bit of hope for the future. People are also working together to keep water consumption at its lowest. A lot of people are gathering rain water with big water tanks next to their houses. I've personally built a setup connected to the gutters of my roof, and it's amazing how much water you can gather like this. It's also quite easy to keep your swimming pool topped up by simply getting a cover for it so that water does not evaporate. However the occasional light rains won't do much to affect the big dams that supply drinking water to the wider population of Cape Town. There simply has been too little rain these past winters to fill the dams up to an adequate level. I think the long term solutions for Cape Town will be increasing and improving the water catchment areas so the dams can cope with the population increase, possibly combined with desalination plants if it gets really bad.
- pbhjpbhj 9y ago
  A pool must use a lot of water - perhaps heavy taxation on [water for] pools would help in the future?
  - ti_ranger 9y ago
    It's been illegal to use municipal water in pools for a few months now. Most municipal swimming pools are closed. Before that (around March 2017), you were only allowed to do so if you had a 'pool blanket', which makes a huge difference. (The little amount of rain we have received over the past few weeks is sufficient to keep the levels high enough in our pool to keep the water level above the weir, without having used other water)
SideburnsOfDoom 9y ago
Cape Town has had some record high temperatures in recent years (1) along with the multi-year drought. To what extent is this likely to be due to climate change? 1) http://www.traveller24.com/News/Alerts/sa-summer-heat-breaks-records-whats-going-on-with-the-weather-20160113 http://www.traveller24.com/News/Alerts/sa-summer-heat-breaks... http://ewn.co.za/2017/12/07/heatwave-brings-record-setting-temperatures-across-wc http://ewn.co.za/2017/12/07/heatwave-brings-record-setting-t...
baxtr 9y ago
Here’s the link to the official “Day 0” page: http://coct.co/water-dashboard/ http://coct.co/water-dashboard/
baxtr 9y ago
I always wondered why you can buy a lot of H2O filled fruits like grapes from South Africa in Europa. They must have some enourmous amounts of water if they can export it. Maybe the price of water isn’t high enough yet or can’t be paid?
- 21 9y ago
  South Africa is not a desert - http://www.grainsa.co.za/images/Articles/2012-08/reenval_fig02.jpg http://www.grainsa.co.za/images/Articles/2012-08/reenval_fig...
  - whatusername 9y ago
    And it’s bigger in area than any two European countries (excluding Russia) combined. Just because there’s a drought in one part of Spain __ there might be plenty of water somewhere in France.
    - baxtr 9y ago
      My point is: if there’s a case to fly water (in form of grapes) to Europe, why would they not move water from one place in SA to another?
      - throwwwwaway9 9y ago
        Cost?
      - tonteldoos 9y ago
        Cost and lead time of infrastructure (and adequate planning). Systems to do this exist in the country (eg, moving water from Lesotho to the Vaaldam with the Highlands water scheme), but that project was 15+ years in the making, and is still ongoing. From what I can see, nothing like this was realistically expected for Cape Town, and thus never planned for.
      - buyx 9y ago
        why would they not move water from one place in SA to another Not my area of expertise, but: South Africa has some massive water transfer schemes: The Lesotho Highlands Water Project and others. The Western Cape Province and Cape Town are governed by the national opposition party (Democratic Alliance). It wouldn't surprise me if this led to a lack of coordination and plannning with the national government, if not outright neglect of the issue (along with general infrastructure-planning neglect between 1990-2005 or so).
pure-awesome 9y ago
Watch out for Waterseer. Not sure I trust that company after their ludicrous misjudgement in their first invention: [Thunderfoot Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVsqIjAeeXw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVsqIjAeeXw) [Lindybeige Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zfYAXWODUs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zfYAXWODUs) Side-note: I live in the Cape Town area. We got on international news! Yay us...? Honestly, I'm pretty worried.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
snowwolf 9y ago
This has also led to an interesting social experiment based on a theory developed by the University of California (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494414001066 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494414...) where household water consumption has been made public (https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/ https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/) in order to apply social pressure on high users.
- snthpy 9y ago
  Cape Town also has this now, although the usage levels are very granular: https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/ https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/
  - chesimov 9y ago
    The heaviest offenders have also had mandatory electronic limiters fitted to their properties, permitting no more than 350L per property per day (as of now)
- VoidWhisperer 9y ago
  The second link has been hugged to death or is down (it will get to the loading bars and stop there)
  - igitur 9y ago
    The init.js file is huge and I suspect they don't cache it server side. I wrote an alternative version which loads faster, but the interesting data (water usage) is obviously available only from the City of Cape Town's server and it delivers the map in one giant png file. At least the aerial map is now cached tiles from another server. http://www.vwd.co.za/vwd/water http://www.vwd.co.za/vwd/water
devnull791101 9y ago
even though the dams are almost depleted the city's lack of water is more due to political issues than water management. the government is insisting that the local desalination plant manufacturer (which supplies australia and other countries) operate through a "Black Economic Empowerment" partner which heavily inflates the cost, and most likely will be tied to "the worlds most corrupt presidents" partners in crime, the Gupta family.
- cup-of-tea 9y ago
  For those outside of SA, dam in this context means reservoir.
- lgleason 9y ago
  This is why this is happening. Everybody is quick to jump on the climate change bandwagon, but the government in ZA is VERY inefficient, incompetent and corrupt... to the point of making many other countries worst days look like competence. If the land reform goes through without compensation expect it to get a lot worse (which is being actively talked about by some of the parties). The compensated land reform has already been a disaster. Farms that were purchased and distributed went from being productive farms to producing nothing in many cases. This is all about mis-management. The Western Cape provincial government, which is where Cape Town is, is one of the more functional governments in the country too.
ilitirit 9y ago
For visitors to CPT, it may not seem like a city that is undergoing a drought. Indeed, CPT still gets a fair bit of rain, if lower than previous years. The problem is we do not get rain in areas where our dams that provide drinking water are situated.
zingar 9y ago
A few points from a Capetonian observing a potential disaster in slow motion: (a) I don't know how claims about the % of users who are toeing the water restriction line can possibly be accurate. what is the population of Cape Town - last major census in 2011. What if there are actually 50 000 more people in CT than we think? (b) water production is at just about half of what it was at peak in Jan 2015 despite population growth. This is surely a remarkable achievement, presumably a result of considerable collective action. Source (production graph here: http://resource.capetown.gov.za/documentcentre/Documents/City%20research%20reports%20and%20review/damlevels.pdf http://resource.capetown.gov.za/documentcentre/Documents/Cit...) (c) the most egregious users have had water restriction devices installed - maybe the bar is too high and city should be stricter about when this measure is taken. (d) the daily production of water has been more or less constant since July. This tells me that there is not that much more give. The only serious reduction I could see is through very difficult to enforce measures e.g. buckets only instead of showers. However I would prefer to do this now instead of having dry taps in April. On a personal note: many home owners have boreholes and full rainwater tanks (it is difficult to store more than a few rainy days' worth of water). My parents' tank is +- 20 days of water at 87l pp per day, although they do not currently have a way to purify the water. My block has a plan to put borehole water into the flats. I don't think anyone knows how long borehole water will last though as there has been a massive spike in drilling.
mallin 9y ago
For anyone wanting to read more about this, here are some articles and data from the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town. This article explains the severity of the drought, and calculates that the return interval for a two-year drought of this severity is 1150 years (!), which mostly absolves the City of blame for not anticipating it: http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/08/28/how-severe-is-this-drought-really/ http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/08/28/how-severe-is-this-drou... Here, you can see an interactive plot of rainfall in Cape Town. Highlight 2017, 2016 and 2015 to see the reason for the current crisis: http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/current-seasons-rainfall-in-cape-town/ http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/current-seasons-rainfall-in-cape-t... Addressing the scaremongering by the City around "the new normal": http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/11/01/is-cape-towns-drought-the-new-normal-piotr-wolskis-article-for-groundup/ http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/11/01/is-cape-towns-drought-t... Describing the difficulty of forecasting this drought: https://theconversation.com/why-cape-towns-drought-was-so-hard-to-forecast-84735 https://theconversation.com/why-cape-towns-drought-was-so-ha...
- ProblemFactory 9y ago
  > calculates that the return interval for a two-year drought of this severity is 1150 years (!) This is however calculated based on historical weather data from 1920s onwards. With climate change ongoing and increasing, we can't rely on historical weather patterns staying accurate for future predictions. Old every 100 or 1000-year droughts can become every 10-year droughts.
spodek 9y ago
Just finished reading Affluence Without Abundance https://www.amazon.com/Affluence-Without-Abundance-Disappearing-Bushmen/dp/1632865726 https://www.amazon.com/Affluence-Without-Abundance-Disappear... about bushmen who live in southern Africa. It turns out people have lived in southern Africa for 200,000 years, hunting and gathering. Westerners show up, run out of water in a couple hundred years, and call them "developing." The book is an eye-opener.
- crankylinuxuser 9y ago
  Yes, but hunting and gathering in the bush doesn't do a damn about increasing technology and getting us off this planet. All it takes is one planetary scale disaster, and we're done for.
  - goldenkey 9y ago
    Actually from what I've read, hunter gatherers had 8+ hours of free time per day. They weren't constantly running in fear of predators as usually thought. There was plenty of time for invention if inclined.
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
  - thrillgore 9y ago
    We're spinning our tires aiming to expatriate from the planet in lieu of a planetary scale disaster. We are better equipped to fix our own damn rock in space than to fuck up another one.
- chesimov 9y ago
  The people you are speaking about, the Bushmen, were wiped out by the Nguni pastoralists and the European settlers. A few descendents remain. They are not in power here. As for Westerners... they haven't been in power for more than 20 years (if you call the Apartheid government western?). Infrastructural development has slowed down mostly due to graft. Secondly, we are talking about a tiny region of Southern Africa. The rest of it is mostly fine.
dzhiurgis 9y ago
Devices like WaterSeer have been debunked a while ago by guys like Dave from EEVBlog. Basically the math behind them do not check out at all. Does anyone got alternative views?
Feniks 9y ago
Amusing since Cape Town was founded by the Dutch as a place to resupply for the long voyage to the Spice Islands. Including clean drinking water.
- boet 9y ago
  Since the communist ANC took over from the NP, the whole country went downhill. This would have never happened if there was a white man in charge of the infrastructure. Unfortunately anti white racial laws kicked out most competent people from these positions. This comment will most likely be blocked. Truth hurts sometimes. We Afrikaners (Dutch) are being forgotten..
- ambivalence 9y ago
  Saying it's "ironic" would be somewhat harsh (but would still get the point across), saying it's "amusing" is just cruel. You know there's real people affected and the ones hurt will likely not be the ones responsible, right? A bit of empathy would go a long way.
tonteldoos 9y ago
I'm currently in Brisbane, and arrived here while the big drought was still in progress (around 2008). Numerous restrictions, legislation for water saving measures, desal plants, etc were being implemented at the time, with pretty astounding results in terms of average water consumption. The drought broke in January 2011, and it's a little sad to see how much that was learnt, has been forgotten in the last 7 years. Desal plants all but mothballed, average consumption gone up (almost double the drought levels again), etc. I really hope the drought in Cape Town breaks soon (I have many friends there), but I hope they don't unlearn the lessons, and kill infrastructure when it does. Interestingly, late last year, it was pointed out by the authorities that the dams are at warning (pre restriction) levels again here, so I dare say we will see it all again.
- mikro2nd 9y ago
  Very unlikely that the Cape Town drought will break any time soon. The city is in a Winter rainfall region, so there's little chance of significant rains before May or June, and even then -- and assuming that rainfall returns to something resembling "normal" -- it will take several years for dams to fully restock. A single rainy season ain't gonna do it (unless there're some pretty catastrophic rains. ;)
  - nevi-me 9y ago
    Which is sad, and shows the reality of climate change. In Joburg we've had a few "100 year" floods in a year, so much water pouring down that we're forgetting that we had a drought last year.
  - tonteldoos 9y ago
    Very fair point, although I didn't imply that it might break this year. Whenever it breaks though, I hope the usage remains low, just in case such an event reccurs.
- danmaz74 9y ago
  Doesn't it make total sense to mothball the desal when you don't need it? Pity about water consumption though.
skc 9y ago
It's a scary situation. Cape Town is a very popular tourist destination and one wonders if that industry as a whole is managing to comply with the restrictions (thus adversely affecting business)
jakewins 9y ago
We've been looking at reducing water use this spring; someone else might find these products useful: OAS(1) showers cap water at 5-10L per use, no matter how long you shower. Getting this installed also means we can swap our water heater to run on the solar array entirely, since you're not flushing all that energy down the drain while you shower. Waterless urinals(2) use no water at all. They work by keeping a layer of oil in the trap instead. Pee sinks under the oil layer and out of the trap, oil stays in the trap since it floats on top. So, stays just as clean as a regular toilet, with no water hookup. Disclosure: None, I've got nothing to do with these companies, other than buying their products for my cabin. (1) https://orbital-systems.com/ https://orbital-systems.com/ (2) https://www.waterless.com/ https://www.waterless.com/
- MichaelGG 9y ago
  "How do I know when to change the Filters? You can find out if you need to change the Oas’s Purification Filter via the Oas app, showing the overall status of your Filters." I wonder if they're using Bluetooth or other local networking or if this really means my shower needs to connect to the Internet.
- goda90 9y ago
  The economics of those OAS filters don't motivate me much, since two adults taking 15 minute showers a day each would result in $40/month for filters alone. 15 minute showers per day per person in a normal shower would cost me less than $15/month in water bills. Obviously there are use cases that need that more than I do, since I live in a wet, temperate area with plentiful water tables, but I think it demonstrates that our problems with water, and pollution, and other environmental issues have come from taking the cheapest/easiest options, so we need to work hard to make more attractive sustainable solutions for the average person.
ainiriand 9y ago
Governments should be aware that to produce 1 pound of beef you need 50000 liters of fresh water, and if they are aware, stop lying to the population. But yes, I guess you could try to save 40 liters per day with your oil urinal.
- kiliantics 9y ago
  State subsidy of certain agriculture, particularly beef and dairy, is definitely one of the biggest crimes of our times.
Synaesthesia 9y ago
Surely Gaza ran out of water a long time ago ...
otempomores 9y ago
If one protests against government corruption is obe rewarded with a additional waterration?
timellis-smith 9y ago
The largest of the dams supplying Cape Town (Theewaterskloof) has a massive surface area (around 5000 ha). Given that the area also tends to be very windy due to its altitude and the prevailing South Easter that blows right throughout summer, evaporation must be really high. Also desalination is energy intensive. For political reasons I'm pretty sure this would be impossible, but I wonder how practical it would be to cover it with solar panels and use the energy for desalination.
pfarnsworth 9y ago
The irony I've found is that when you cut water usage, the water company will INCREASE your fees because they're not making enough money. They tell us to save water, and then turn around and charge us more for using less, it's very angering.
- jedberg 9y ago
  Equally angering is when they set the conservation target as a percent of your previous usage. I already conserve water, drought or not, because I'm cheap. When you tell me I'm not meeting my conservation targets because I can't go down another 20%, that infuriates me, especially since my usage is already 50% lower than my neighbors!
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
igitur 9y ago
We are a couple living in Cape Town. For the past 6 months we've been averaging 60 litres per person per day, with a downward trend. We don't have a swimming pool. We don't water the garden or lawn. It looks hideous, but those steps were easy gains. It's our water closet habits that had to change drastically. If it's yellow, let it mellow. If it's brown, let it drown. We shower, very quickly, with 2 buckets and try to catch as much water as possible. We turn off the shower while lathering up with soap and would dip our sponges in the buckets if we need to add water to the mix. It's basically taking a bucket bath in a shower and a quick rinse afterwards. We use the gathered water to drown the brown. Sometimes a quick flush with water from the cistern is necessary, but we can limit the flush by lifting the lever (unlike older cisterns). Other people have installed tanks in their backyards to collect rainwater from the roof, but we don't have the space. It's an inconvenience, but so far it hasn't been too difficult to get under the 87 litre target. It just required some attention, and very importantly, frequent monitoring. Frankly, I'm disgusted that more than half of my fellow citizens couldn't reach the target.
candiodari 9y ago
That last paragraph, literally following the statement before it just makes me mad : "But there is a sense that much of this technology is merely tinkering at the edges. The overarching issue is the potentially devastating effect of global warming on water availability and how we, collectively, endeavour to tackle it." Unfortunately this statement is absurd. The real cause: "Most recent projections suggest that its water could run out as early as March. The crisis has been caused by three years of very low rainfall, coupled with increasing consumption by a growing population." So an extremely rare event is causing a water shortage. How has climate change affected this ? Well, it has moved the average of the distribution of rainfall by a few percent (at most). How far are we from the average ? Close to 3 sigma away from it, and increasing every day. If the city actually runs out of water we'll be closer to 4 sigma before it happens. So how much influence does climate change have on it. Opening my python client I feel like it can be distributed as such: 1) 99.99999% is a coincidence (a series of unrelated events spanning 4+ years causing a lack of rainfall in the area) 2) 0.00001% is climate change In other words, if you solved climate change today, nothing at all would change for this city. And yet that claim from the BBC gets inserted there.
aaron695 9y ago
> and in some circumstances even divining rods - despite scientific doubts, some firms say they do work. Scientific doubts -> Absolute scientific proof Good to see we still live in the Middle Ages BBC.

204 points by tonteldoos 9y ago

Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, has already run out of water. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-blockade-redcross/2-5-million-yemenis-now-lack-access-to-clean-water-red-cross-idUSKBN1DK1ZP https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-blockade-r... There were serious problems before the war, but now it's just a disaster area. The US supports this.

SideburnsOfDoom 9y ago
The difference is, Cape Town is not in war time. I can't think of the last time there was literal war in Cape Town, there's nothing in recent times. My best guess would be "a small but significant military engagement" on 8 January 1806 (1). Unrest in the late 1980s doesn't count. As far as I know, there were no military engagements in Cape Town during the Anglo-Boer wars (1880 - 1881 and 1899 – 1902). 1 ) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blaauwberg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blaauwberg
- overlordalex 9y ago
  There was some action in World War 2 with shipping around the peninsula, but nothing in the city itself
  - SideburnsOfDoom 9y ago
    Right. Nothing that would destroy the city's pipes or other infrastructure, and therefor ability to manage water, in that.
  - chesimov 9y ago
    Yes, U-boats sank merchant shipping in Table Bay
- oneweekwonder 9y ago
  > is not in war time Maybe not physical destruction. But "war time" is something that will get decided by historians in 20 years time. In a more cyber conscience world social engineering of the state[0] will become a act of war... or something in that line, I hope. gobble gobble [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gupta_family https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gupta_family
  - SideburnsOfDoom 9y ago
    I totally get that there is tension and conflict in the situation. Other comments allude to the tension between Local and national governments (1) and there may be an element that the National government is neglecting CT or actively wanting it to fail. I don't think though this is the same as a city like Sanaa being shelled into rubble (2) 1) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16176394 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16176394 2) https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/inside-war-torn-yemens-capital/ https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/inside-war-torn-yemens-capi... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoZsjagnKPs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoZsjagnKPs
- m0llusk 9y ago
  Yemen was nearly running out of water even before the war started. In any case these are quibbles. Yemen and South Africa having cities without water should be a major alarm to all civic leaders.
tici_88 9y ago
It is not just the US. Canada in recent years signed a $15Bln contract to supply the Saudi Arabia rulers with weapons. (I was going to say 'government but 'rulers' feels more appropriate in this case). Saudi Arabia is at war with Yemen and the war is causing the humanitarian crisis described in the above article.
- arethuza 9y ago
  Indeed, the UK position is "We'll support the Saudis in every practical way short of engaging in combat.": https://www.caat.org.uk/campaigns/stop-arming-saudi/arms-sales https://www.caat.org.uk/campaigns/stop-arming-saudi/arms-sal...
  - toyg 9y ago
    Same for Italy, we tripled arms sales to them in the last two years and Parliament recently voted not to restrict the flow despite the conflict in Yemen.

overlordalex 9y ago

I live in Cape Town, and this article is missing some points about whats been going on: 1. "Day 0" has been moved forward - we're now expected to run out of water 21 April. 2. The daily limit of water per person is 87l but only ~50% of consumers meet this target 3. This is considered a 1/1000 year event (in contrast to 1/100 experienced elsewhere in the country recently). However due to increased population this is being called "the new normal". 4. Water allocation between residential/agriculture was done at some national level, meaning the province wasn't able to manage the supplies correctly. 5. 6/7 water relief projects are behind schedule - these include desalination plants and aquifer pumps. 6. We lose 15% of our water through leaks - much lower than the world average but not as good as the best (around 10% in Australia and New Zealand) Some other personal notes: 1. There has been talk of tapping the aquifers for decades - the studies haven't been prioritised and we still don't know how much we can safely take. The outlying areas of Cape Town are essentially marshes and during normal rainfall seasons are prone to flooding, so there is definitely some space but noone knows how much. 2. The city has lost R1.6b ($130m) in water fees due to reduced usage, so now we're facing a "drought tax". To me this is bullshit but thats a whole other post. 3. The restrictions should not be eased once the dams are full - with climate change and increasing population its only a matter of time until we run out of water and no amount of rainfall is going to help 4. When we run out of water there will be water trucks and collections points, but there has been no talk of sanitation - I suspect a lot of people are going to get really sick.

snowwolf 9y ago
Its just been announced that from Feb 1st the daily limit is going to be 50l and the drought tax is off the table. https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-01-18-de-lille-pushes-the-drought-panic-button/ https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-01-18-de-...
nukeop 9y ago
I thought climate change was supposed to provide easier access to water?
- pjc50 9y ago

sgt 9y ago

It's definitely a big problem, yet I see a lot of creative solutions which gives us a bit of hope for the future. People are also working together to keep water consumption at its lowest. A lot of people are gathering rain water with big water tanks next to their houses. I've personally built a setup connected to the gutters of my roof, and it's amazing how much water you can gather like this. It's also quite easy to keep your swimming pool topped up by simply getting a cover for it so that water does not evaporate. However the occasional light rains won't do much to affect the big dams that supply drinking water to the wider population of Cape Town. There simply has been too little rain these past winters to fill the dams up to an adequate level. I think the long term solutions for Cape Town will be increasing and improving the water catchment areas so the dams can cope with the population increase, possibly combined with desalination plants if it gets really bad.

pbhjpbhj 9y ago
A pool must use a lot of water - perhaps heavy taxation on [water for] pools would help in the future?
- ti_ranger 9y ago
  It's been illegal to use municipal water in pools for a few months now. Most municipal swimming pools are closed. Before that (around March 2017), you were only allowed to do so if you had a 'pool blanket', which makes a huge difference. (The little amount of rain we have received over the past few weeks is sufficient to keep the levels high enough in our pool to keep the water level above the weir, without having used other water)

SideburnsOfDoom 9y ago

Cape Town has had some record high temperatures in recent years (1) along with the multi-year drought. To what extent is this likely to be due to climate change? 1) http://www.traveller24.com/News/Alerts/sa-summer-heat-breaks-records-whats-going-on-with-the-weather-20160113 http://www.traveller24.com/News/Alerts/sa-summer-heat-breaks... http://ewn.co.za/2017/12/07/heatwave-brings-record-setting-temperatures-across-wc http://ewn.co.za/2017/12/07/heatwave-brings-record-setting-t...

baxtr 9y ago

Here’s the link to the official “Day 0” page: http://coct.co/water-dashboard/ http://coct.co/water-dashboard/

baxtr 9y ago

I always wondered why you can buy a lot of H2O filled fruits like grapes from South Africa in Europa. They must have some enourmous amounts of water if they can export it. Maybe the price of water isn’t high enough yet or can’t be paid?

21 9y ago
South Africa is not a desert - http://www.grainsa.co.za/images/Articles/2012-08/reenval_fig02.jpg http://www.grainsa.co.za/images/Articles/2012-08/reenval_fig...
- whatusername 9y ago
  And it’s bigger in area than any two European countries (excluding Russia) combined. Just because there’s a drought in one part of Spain __ there might be plenty of water somewhere in France.
  - baxtr 9y ago
    My point is: if there’s a case to fly water (in form of grapes) to Europe, why would they not move water from one place in SA to another?
    - throwwwwaway9 9y ago
      Cost?
    - tonteldoos 9y ago
      Cost and lead time of infrastructure (and adequate planning). Systems to do this exist in the country (eg, moving water from Lesotho to the Vaaldam with the Highlands water scheme), but that project was 15+ years in the making, and is still ongoing. From what I can see, nothing like this was realistically expected for Cape Town, and thus never planned for.
    - buyx 9y ago
      why would they not move water from one place in SA to another Not my area of expertise, but: South Africa has some massive water transfer schemes: The Lesotho Highlands Water Project and others. The Western Cape Province and Cape Town are governed by the national opposition party (Democratic Alliance). It wouldn't surprise me if this led to a lack of coordination and plannning with the national government, if not outright neglect of the issue (along with general infrastructure-planning neglect between 1990-2005 or so).

pure-awesome 9y ago

Watch out for Waterseer. Not sure I trust that company after their ludicrous misjudgement in their first invention: [Thunderfoot Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVsqIjAeeXw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVsqIjAeeXw) [Lindybeige Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zfYAXWODUs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zfYAXWODUs) Side-note: I live in the Cape Town area. We got on international news! Yay us...? Honestly, I'm pretty worried.

deleted 9y ago
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snowwolf 9y ago

This has also led to an interesting social experiment based on a theory developed by the University of California (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494414001066 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494414...) where household water consumption has been made public (https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/ https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/) in order to apply social pressure on high users.

snthpy 9y ago
Cape Town also has this now, although the usage levels are very granular: https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/ https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/
- chesimov 9y ago
  The heaviest offenders have also had mandatory electronic limiters fitted to their properties, permitting no more than 350L per property per day (as of now)
VoidWhisperer 9y ago
The second link has been hugged to death or is down (it will get to the loading bars and stop there)
- igitur 9y ago
  The init.js file is huge and I suspect they don't cache it server side. I wrote an alternative version which loads faster, but the interesting data (water usage) is obviously available only from the City of Cape Town's server and it delivers the map in one giant png file. At least the aerial map is now cached tiles from another server. http://www.vwd.co.za/vwd/water http://www.vwd.co.za/vwd/water

devnull791101 9y ago

even though the dams are almost depleted the city's lack of water is more due to political issues than water management. the government is insisting that the local desalination plant manufacturer (which supplies australia and other countries) operate through a "Black Economic Empowerment" partner which heavily inflates the cost, and most likely will be tied to "the worlds most corrupt presidents" partners in crime, the Gupta family.

cup-of-tea 9y ago
For those outside of SA, dam in this context means reservoir.
lgleason 9y ago
This is why this is happening. Everybody is quick to jump on the climate change bandwagon, but the government in ZA is VERY inefficient, incompetent and corrupt... to the point of making many other countries worst days look like competence. If the land reform goes through without compensation expect it to get a lot worse (which is being actively talked about by some of the parties). The compensated land reform has already been a disaster. Farms that were purchased and distributed went from being productive farms to producing nothing in many cases. This is all about mis-management. The Western Cape provincial government, which is where Cape Town is, is one of the more functional governments in the country too.

ilitirit 9y ago

For visitors to CPT, it may not seem like a city that is undergoing a drought. Indeed, CPT still gets a fair bit of rain, if lower than previous years. The problem is we do not get rain in areas where our dams that provide drinking water are situated.

zingar 9y ago

A few points from a Capetonian observing a potential disaster in slow motion: (a) I don't know how claims about the % of users who are toeing the water restriction line can possibly be accurate. what is the population of Cape Town - last major census in 2011. What if there are actually 50 000 more people in CT than we think? (b) water production is at just about half of what it was at peak in Jan 2015 despite population growth. This is surely a remarkable achievement, presumably a result of considerable collective action. Source (production graph here: http://resource.capetown.gov.za/documentcentre/Documents/City%20research%20reports%20and%20review/damlevels.pdf http://resource.capetown.gov.za/documentcentre/Documents/Cit...) (c) the most egregious users have had water restriction devices installed - maybe the bar is too high and city should be stricter about when this measure is taken. (d) the daily production of water has been more or less constant since July. This tells me that there is not that much more give. The only serious reduction I could see is through very difficult to enforce measures e.g. buckets only instead of showers. However I would prefer to do this now instead of having dry taps in April. On a personal note: many home owners have boreholes and full rainwater tanks (it is difficult to store more than a few rainy days' worth of water). My parents' tank is +- 20 days of water at 87l pp per day, although they do not currently have a way to purify the water. My block has a plan to put borehole water into the flats. I don't think anyone knows how long borehole water will last though as there has been a massive spike in drilling.

mallin 9y ago

For anyone wanting to read more about this, here are some articles and data from the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town. This article explains the severity of the drought, and calculates that the return interval for a two-year drought of this severity is 1150 years (!), which mostly absolves the City of blame for not anticipating it: http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/08/28/how-severe-is-this-drought-really/ http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/08/28/how-severe-is-this-drou... Here, you can see an interactive plot of rainfall in Cape Town. Highlight 2017, 2016 and 2015 to see the reason for the current crisis: http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/current-seasons-rainfall-in-cape-town/ http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/current-seasons-rainfall-in-cape-t... Addressing the scaremongering by the City around "the new normal": http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/11/01/is-cape-towns-drought-the-new-normal-piotr-wolskis-article-for-groundup/ http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/11/01/is-cape-towns-drought-t... Describing the difficulty of forecasting this drought: https://theconversation.com/why-cape-towns-drought-was-so-hard-to-forecast-84735 https://theconversation.com/why-cape-towns-drought-was-so-ha...

ProblemFactory 9y ago
> calculates that the return interval for a two-year drought of this severity is 1150 years (!) This is however calculated based on historical weather data from 1920s onwards. With climate change ongoing and increasing, we can't rely on historical weather patterns staying accurate for future predictions. Old every 100 or 1000-year droughts can become every 10-year droughts.

spodek 9y ago

Just finished reading Affluence Without Abundance https://www.amazon.com/Affluence-Without-Abundance-Disappearing-Bushmen/dp/1632865726 https://www.amazon.com/Affluence-Without-Abundance-Disappear... about bushmen who live in southern Africa. It turns out people have lived in southern Africa for 200,000 years, hunting and gathering. Westerners show up, run out of water in a couple hundred years, and call them "developing." The book is an eye-opener.

crankylinuxuser 9y ago
Yes, but hunting and gathering in the bush doesn't do a damn about increasing technology and getting us off this planet. All it takes is one planetary scale disaster, and we're done for.
- goldenkey 9y ago
  Actually from what I've read, hunter gatherers had 8+ hours of free time per day. They weren't constantly running in fear of predators as usually thought. There was plenty of time for invention if inclined.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
- thrillgore 9y ago
  We're spinning our tires aiming to expatriate from the planet in lieu of a planetary scale disaster. We are better equipped to fix our own damn rock in space than to fuck up another one.
chesimov 9y ago
The people you are speaking about, the Bushmen, were wiped out by the Nguni pastoralists and the European settlers. A few descendents remain. They are not in power here. As for Westerners... they haven't been in power for more than 20 years (if you call the Apartheid government western?). Infrastructural development has slowed down mostly due to graft. Secondly, we are talking about a tiny region of Southern Africa. The rest of it is mostly fine.

dzhiurgis 9y ago

Devices like WaterSeer have been debunked a while ago by guys like Dave from EEVBlog. Basically the math behind them do not check out at all. Does anyone got alternative views?

Feniks 9y ago

Amusing since Cape Town was founded by the Dutch as a place to resupply for the long voyage to the Spice Islands. Including clean drinking water.

boet 9y ago
Since the communist ANC took over from the NP, the whole country went downhill. This would have never happened if there was a white man in charge of the infrastructure. Unfortunately anti white racial laws kicked out most competent people from these positions. This comment will most likely be blocked. Truth hurts sometimes. We Afrikaners (Dutch) are being forgotten..
ambivalence 9y ago
Saying it's "ironic" would be somewhat harsh (but would still get the point across), saying it's "amusing" is just cruel. You know there's real people affected and the ones hurt will likely not be the ones responsible, right? A bit of empathy would go a long way.

tonteldoos 9y ago

I'm currently in Brisbane, and arrived here while the big drought was still in progress (around 2008). Numerous restrictions, legislation for water saving measures, desal plants, etc were being implemented at the time, with pretty astounding results in terms of average water consumption. The drought broke in January 2011, and it's a little sad to see how much that was learnt, has been forgotten in the last 7 years. Desal plants all but mothballed, average consumption gone up (almost double the drought levels again), etc. I really hope the drought in Cape Town breaks soon (I have many friends there), but I hope they don't unlearn the lessons, and kill infrastructure when it does. Interestingly, late last year, it was pointed out by the authorities that the dams are at warning (pre restriction) levels again here, so I dare say we will see it all again.

mikro2nd 9y ago
Very unlikely that the Cape Town drought will break any time soon. The city is in a Winter rainfall region, so there's little chance of significant rains before May or June, and even then -- and assuming that rainfall returns to something resembling "normal" -- it will take several years for dams to fully restock. A single rainy season ain't gonna do it (unless there're some pretty catastrophic rains. ;)
- nevi-me 9y ago
  Which is sad, and shows the reality of climate change. In Joburg we've had a few "100 year" floods in a year, so much water pouring down that we're forgetting that we had a drought last year.
- tonteldoos 9y ago
  Very fair point, although I didn't imply that it might break this year. Whenever it breaks though, I hope the usage remains low, just in case such an event reccurs.
danmaz74 9y ago
Doesn't it make total sense to mothball the desal when you don't need it? Pity about water consumption though.

skc 9y ago

It's a scary situation. Cape Town is a very popular tourist destination and one wonders if that industry as a whole is managing to comply with the restrictions (thus adversely affecting business)

jakewins 9y ago

We've been looking at reducing water use this spring; someone else might find these products useful: OAS(1) showers cap water at 5-10L per use, no matter how long you shower. Getting this installed also means we can swap our water heater to run on the solar array entirely, since you're not flushing all that energy down the drain while you shower. Waterless urinals(2) use no water at all. They work by keeping a layer of oil in the trap instead. Pee sinks under the oil layer and out of the trap, oil stays in the trap since it floats on top. So, stays just as clean as a regular toilet, with no water hookup. Disclosure: None, I've got nothing to do with these companies, other than buying their products for my cabin. (1) https://orbital-systems.com/ https://orbital-systems.com/ (2) https://www.waterless.com/ https://www.waterless.com/

MichaelGG 9y ago
"How do I know when to change the Filters? You can find out if you need to change the Oas’s Purification Filter via the Oas app, showing the overall status of your Filters." I wonder if they're using Bluetooth or other local networking or if this really means my shower needs to connect to the Internet.
goda90 9y ago
The economics of those OAS filters don't motivate me much, since two adults taking 15 minute showers a day each would result in $40/month for filters alone. 15 minute showers per day per person in a normal shower would cost me less than $15/month in water bills. Obviously there are use cases that need that more than I do, since I live in a wet, temperate area with plentiful water tables, but I think it demonstrates that our problems with water, and pollution, and other environmental issues have come from taking the cheapest/easiest options, so we need to work hard to make more attractive sustainable solutions for the average person.

ainiriand 9y ago

Governments should be aware that to produce 1 pound of beef you need 50000 liters of fresh water, and if they are aware, stop lying to the population. But yes, I guess you could try to save 40 liters per day with your oil urinal.

kiliantics 9y ago
State subsidy of certain agriculture, particularly beef and dairy, is definitely one of the biggest crimes of our times.

Synaesthesia 9y ago

Surely Gaza ran out of water a long time ago ...

otempomores 9y ago

If one protests against government corruption is obe rewarded with a additional waterration?

timellis-smith 9y ago

The largest of the dams supplying Cape Town (Theewaterskloof) has a massive surface area (around 5000 ha). Given that the area also tends to be very windy due to its altitude and the prevailing South Easter that blows right throughout summer, evaporation must be really high. Also desalination is energy intensive. For political reasons I'm pretty sure this would be impossible, but I wonder how practical it would be to cover it with solar panels and use the energy for desalination.

pfarnsworth 9y ago

The irony I've found is that when you cut water usage, the water company will INCREASE your fees because they're not making enough money. They tell us to save water, and then turn around and charge us more for using less, it's very angering.

jedberg 9y ago
Equally angering is when they set the conservation target as a percent of your previous usage. I already conserve water, drought or not, because I'm cheap. When you tell me I'm not meeting my conservation targets because I can't go down another 20%, that infuriates me, especially since my usage is already 50% lower than my neighbors!
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igitur 9y ago

We are a couple living in Cape Town. For the past 6 months we've been averaging 60 litres per person per day, with a downward trend. We don't have a swimming pool. We don't water the garden or lawn. It looks hideous, but those steps were easy gains. It's our water closet habits that had to change drastically. If it's yellow, let it mellow. If it's brown, let it drown. We shower, very quickly, with 2 buckets and try to catch as much water as possible. We turn off the shower while lathering up with soap and would dip our sponges in the buckets if we need to add water to the mix. It's basically taking a bucket bath in a shower and a quick rinse afterwards. We use the gathered water to drown the brown. Sometimes a quick flush with water from the cistern is necessary, but we can limit the flush by lifting the lever (unlike older cisterns). Other people have installed tanks in their backyards to collect rainwater from the roof, but we don't have the space. It's an inconvenience, but so far it hasn't been too difficult to get under the 87 litre target. It just required some attention, and very importantly, frequent monitoring. Frankly, I'm disgusted that more than half of my fellow citizens couldn't reach the target.

candiodari 9y ago

That last paragraph, literally following the statement before it just makes me mad : "But there is a sense that much of this technology is merely tinkering at the edges. The overarching issue is the potentially devastating effect of global warming on water availability and how we, collectively, endeavour to tackle it." Unfortunately this statement is absurd. The real cause: "Most recent projections suggest that its water could run out as early as March. The crisis has been caused by three years of very low rainfall, coupled with increasing consumption by a growing population." So an extremely rare event is causing a water shortage. How has climate change affected this ? Well, it has moved the average of the distribution of rainfall by a few percent (at most). How far are we from the average ? Close to 3 sigma away from it, and increasing every day. If the city actually runs out of water we'll be closer to 4 sigma before it happens. So how much influence does climate change have on it. Opening my python client I feel like it can be distributed as such: 1) 99.99999% is a coincidence (a series of unrelated events spanning 4+ years causing a lack of rainfall in the area) 2) 0.00001% is climate change In other words, if you solved climate change today, nothing at all would change for this city. And yet that claim from the BBC gets inserted there.

aaron695 9y ago

> and in some circumstances even divining rods - despite scientific doubts, some firms say they do work. Scientific doubts -> Absolute scientific proof Good to see we still live in the Middle Ages BBC.