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> This is the same problem Netflix & Amazon have been successful in combating. The answer is to become a content owner by competing with the big labels directly

> This is the same problem Netflix & Amazon have been successful in combating. The answer is to become a content owner by competing with the big labels directly. > All Spotify needs to push the big labels back on their heels is to sign a few top 40 artists of their own No way that's going to work. Music is VASTLY different from video. In video it takes more time and resources to produce each one and replays are rare. In music everything is super cheap to produce and replays are off the chart. If Spotify became their own label and signed 100 of the top artists, their old songs are STILL with the previous label and will likely never leave. Spotify still NEEDS those songs or it's SOL.

komali2 9y ago
Alternatively, as less people stop listening to the radio, songs from the 70's, 80's, 90's, and eventually the early 2000's will need a venue to be played on. If less people listen to the radio, AND less people buy music directly through itunes or whatever, the only option the big 3 will have is to work with streaming services.
hobofan 9y ago
> If Spotify became their own label and signed 100 of the top artists, their old songs are STILL with the previous label and will likely never leave. Spotify still NEEDS those songs or it's SOL. As I pointed out in a sibling comment, I think Netflix actually has the same problem. There is a significant presence of long-running shows that people love to watch on Netflix: Friends, Breaking Bad, Modern Family, How I Met Your Mother, etc.. A big favorite "It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia" just left the catalog - presumably due to the acquisition of FX by Disney - and "Archer" will likely soon follow for the same reason. A lot of those are not new and people still watch them (either to catch up on a missed cult hit or to rewatch their favorites), and the will continue to do so for the next 10-20 years. As long as that's the case Netflix also has to continue to make deals with the existing rights holders or substantially shift their core offering.
- BinaryIdiot 9y ago
  > As I pointed out in a sibling comment, I think Netflix actually has the same problem. There is a significant presence of long-running shows that people love to watch on Netflix: Friends, Breaking Bad, Modern Family, How I Met Your Mother, etc.. Is that really true though? As video content gets older it usually gets watched less, becomes cheaper and gets re-aired everywhere it can. Once you watch it many don't re-watch. I'd love to know if there were statistics on this either way! Music, on the other hand, doesn't show its age nearly as much and old music is constantly replayed even in the latest TV shows and movies. Seems to be music is almost timeless whereas video is not. But, again, I'd love to see some data around these topics to valid (or invalid) what I think to be true.
  - hobofan 9y ago
    I sadly also don't have any data to support my claims. :/ > As video content gets older it usually gets watched less, becomes cheaper and gets re-aired everywhere it can. That has been the traditional behavior in scheduled broadcasting, but I'd wager that the lifespan of shows is significantly extended when they are available on-demand. In general, there are probably a lot of social shifts/effects related to video consumption that appeared with Netflix for the first time (e.g. binge watching), each with their own economic effects.
  - wils1245 9y ago
    I bet it’s different for various niches. Consider young families. Disney absolutely dominates children’s content, and very old content still resonates with kids. My niece and and nephew were obsessed with Toy Story, Finding Dory, Frozen, etc. I bet Disney’s streaming service will be the first one families buy.
pembrook 9y ago
But if the majority of plays on Spotify are of the current hit pop songs at any given time, Spotify still has the power even if they don’t own the old songs. Go look at the most played songs on Spotify of all time. It’s not the Beatles and Michael Jackson’s back catalog. We’re talking Chainsmokers and Imagine Dragons and Ed Sheeran.
- usrusr 9y ago
  Most played in terms of number of plays, but probably far behind in terms of unique users who actively selected the song at least once? The catalog deep dive is where streaming services offer unique value, putting a hit on repeat is what people could do just as well by buying the single/licence.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  AmazonPrime’s most played list has more than a few oldies in it, especially around Christmas. The non-young crowd is also much less into new music and crave the older stuff actually. A streaming service can totally survive on those users alone, probably. If I could get it at some discount, I would totally pay for a streaming service that didn’t have any songs made within the last ten years. I could live on songs made in the 60s alone (and that’s way before my time).
hbosch 9y ago
Well, lets also not forget that Spotify has been slowly steering itself from a pure "music playback tool" to a "music discovery tool", and a trusted one at that. They are heavily promoting things like Discover Weekly, Podcasts, playlists like RapCaviar and their various "n+Moods" and "n+Vibes" playlists. There was a great article[0] posted here some time ago, I think, that likened the algorithmic discovery "products" of Spotify plus the effortless access to individual songs as creating a sort of thin spread of musical diversity (the auther's e.g. Muzak), generic and accessible enough to be replicated by almost anybody. A great example of this, today, is Cardi B[1] – this is a person who honed her personality through social media and reality TV, linked up with a music camp, and is now the third person in history with her first 3 commercial songs in the Billboard Top 10[2]. Her biggest hit, Bodak Yellow, uses a flow lifted from another rapper named Kodak Black (and she has done this multiple times[3]). The thing is, though, she was groomed to be a hit. Once Spotify achieves a critical mass of listeners that trust their algorithms, and rely on their tastemakers to deliver fresh music, Spotify could easily slot in musicians that they themselves hold the contracts for. Their pockets are just as deep as a record label, and their listener data is far richer. I have no difficulty imagining that Spotify could replicate a Cardi B-esque pop zeitgeist. "Tastemaking", even if the word makes you cringe, is what will define the winners and losers of the streaming wars. It's why Apple hired away Zane Lowe – an relatively bland DJ personality, but an incredibly gifted ear and a cache of trust – and why Spotify relies more on Playlists and Discovery every day. Remember, they didn't even have the Beatles until Christmas 2016! That shows a decent picture of how much the majority cares about back catalogues. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Spotify themselves couldn't produce a top 10 rapper, or a top 10 country singer, or a popular podcast, just based on the level of engagement in their playlists. 0. https://thebaffler.com/salvos/the-problem-with-muzak-pelly https://thebaffler.com/salvos/the-problem-with-muzak-pelly 1. https://noisey.vice.com/en_us/article/evpbxj/cardi-bs-bodak-yellow-defeats-taylor-swift-hits-number-one-on-hot-100 https://noisey.vice.com/en_us/article/evpbxj/cardi-bs-bodak-... 2. https://noisey.vice.com/en_us/article/bjyvad/cardi-b-makes-history-again-with-three-singles-in-the-billboard-top-10?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it https://noisey.vice.com/en_us/article/bjyvad/cardi-b-makes-h... 3. https://genius.com/a/how-kodak-black-influenced-cardi-b-s-bodak-yellow https://genius.com/a/how-kodak-black-influenced-cardi-b-s-bo...
- 9y ago
BurningFrog 9y ago
But in that world any other player would equally NEED Spotify's artists.
pc86 9y ago
> replays are rare Tell that to my wife who has seen every Office episode at least 20 times.
- h2onock 9y ago
  I’ve binge-watched a few series’ through several times.

komali2 9y ago

Alternatively, as less people stop listening to the radio, songs from the 70's, 80's, 90's, and eventually the early 2000's will need a venue to be played on. If less people listen to the radio, AND less people buy music directly through itunes or whatever, the only option the big 3 will have is to work with streaming services.

hobofan 9y ago

> If Spotify became their own label and signed 100 of the top artists, their old songs are STILL with the previous label and will likely never leave. Spotify still NEEDS those songs or it's SOL. As I pointed out in a sibling comment, I think Netflix actually has the same problem. There is a significant presence of long-running shows that people love to watch on Netflix: Friends, Breaking Bad, Modern Family, How I Met Your Mother, etc.. A big favorite "It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia" just left the catalog - presumably due to the acquisition of FX by Disney - and "Archer" will likely soon follow for the same reason. A lot of those are not new and people still watch them (either to catch up on a missed cult hit or to rewatch their favorites), and the will continue to do so for the next 10-20 years. As long as that's the case Netflix also has to continue to make deals with the existing rights holders or substantially shift their core offering.

BinaryIdiot 9y ago
> As I pointed out in a sibling comment, I think Netflix actually has the same problem. There is a significant presence of long-running shows that people love to watch on Netflix: Friends, Breaking Bad, Modern Family, How I Met Your Mother, etc.. Is that really true though? As video content gets older it usually gets watched less, becomes cheaper and gets re-aired everywhere it can. Once you watch it many don't re-watch. I'd love to know if there were statistics on this either way! Music, on the other hand, doesn't show its age nearly as much and old music is constantly replayed even in the latest TV shows and movies. Seems to be music is almost timeless whereas video is not. But, again, I'd love to see some data around these topics to valid (or invalid) what I think to be true.
- hobofan 9y ago
  I sadly also don't have any data to support my claims. :/ > As video content gets older it usually gets watched less, becomes cheaper and gets re-aired everywhere it can. That has been the traditional behavior in scheduled broadcasting, but I'd wager that the lifespan of shows is significantly extended when they are available on-demand. In general, there are probably a lot of social shifts/effects related to video consumption that appeared with Netflix for the first time (e.g. binge watching), each with their own economic effects.
- wils1245 9y ago
  I bet it’s different for various niches. Consider young families. Disney absolutely dominates children’s content, and very old content still resonates with kids. My niece and and nephew were obsessed with Toy Story, Finding Dory, Frozen, etc. I bet Disney’s streaming service will be the first one families buy.

pembrook 9y ago

But if the majority of plays on Spotify are of the current hit pop songs at any given time, Spotify still has the power even if they don’t own the old songs. Go look at the most played songs on Spotify of all time. It’s not the Beatles and Michael Jackson’s back catalog. We’re talking Chainsmokers and Imagine Dragons and Ed Sheeran.

usrusr 9y ago
Most played in terms of number of plays, but probably far behind in terms of unique users who actively selected the song at least once? The catalog deep dive is where streaming services offer unique value, putting a hit on repeat is what people could do just as well by buying the single/licence.
seanmcdirmid 9y ago
AmazonPrime’s most played list has more than a few oldies in it, especially around Christmas. The non-young crowd is also much less into new music and crave the older stuff actually. A streaming service can totally survive on those users alone, probably. If I could get it at some discount, I would totally pay for a streaming service that didn’t have any songs made within the last ten years. I could live on songs made in the 60s alone (and that’s way before my time).

hbosch 9y ago

Well, lets also not forget that Spotify has been slowly steering itself from a pure "music playback tool" to a "music discovery tool", and a trusted one at that. They are heavily promoting things like Discover Weekly, Podcasts, playlists like RapCaviar and their various "n+Moods" and "n+Vibes" playlists. There was a great article[0] posted here some time ago, I think, that likened the algorithmic discovery "products" of Spotify plus the effortless access to individual songs as creating a sort of thin spread of musical diversity (the auther's e.g. Muzak), generic and accessible enough to be replicated by almost anybody. A great example of this, today, is Cardi B[1] – this is a person who honed her personality through social media and reality TV, linked up with a music camp, and is now the third person in history with her first 3 commercial songs in the Billboard Top 10[2]. Her biggest hit, Bodak Yellow, uses a flow lifted from another rapper named Kodak Black (and she has done this multiple times[3]). The thing is, though, she was groomed to be a hit. Once Spotify achieves a critical mass of listeners that trust their algorithms, and rely on their tastemakers to deliver fresh music, Spotify could easily slot in musicians that they themselves hold the contracts for. Their pockets are just as deep as a record label, and their listener data is far richer. I have no difficulty imagining that Spotify could replicate a Cardi B-esque pop zeitgeist. "Tastemaking", even if the word makes you cringe, is what will define the winners and losers of the streaming wars. It's why Apple hired away Zane Lowe – an relatively bland DJ personality, but an incredibly gifted ear and a cache of trust – and why Spotify relies more on Playlists and Discovery every day. Remember, they didn't even have the Beatles until Christmas 2016! That shows a decent picture of how much the majority cares about back catalogues. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Spotify themselves couldn't produce a top 10 rapper, or a top 10 country singer, or a popular podcast, just based on the level of engagement in their playlists. 0. https://thebaffler.com/salvos/the-problem-with-muzak-pelly https://thebaffler.com/salvos/the-problem-with-muzak-pelly 1. https://noisey.vice.com/en_us/article/evpbxj/cardi-bs-bodak-yellow-defeats-taylor-swift-hits-number-one-on-hot-100 https://noisey.vice.com/en_us/article/evpbxj/cardi-bs-bodak-... 2. https://noisey.vice.com/en_us/article/bjyvad/cardi-b-makes-history-again-with-three-singles-in-the-billboard-top-10?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it https://noisey.vice.com/en_us/article/bjyvad/cardi-b-makes-h... 3. https://genius.com/a/how-kodak-black-influenced-cardi-b-s-bodak-yellow https://genius.com/a/how-kodak-black-influenced-cardi-b-s-bo...

9y ago

BurningFrog 9y ago

But in that world any other player would equally NEED Spotify's artists.

pc86 9y ago

> replays are rare Tell that to my wife who has seen every Office episode at least 20 times.

h2onock 9y ago
I’ve binge-watched a few series’ through several times.