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Agreed. I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think. Nonetheless its an interesting article despite its slightly sniffy

Agreed. I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think. Nonetheless its an interesting article despite its slightly sniffy attitude to electrics because it highlights the scary predicament that the big automakers find themselves in.

jseliger 9y ago
I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think Yes. That's the other thing: the best argument for an electric car is driving one—particularly a Tesla. The minute most of the population has access to one (from a friend, family, whatever), they're going to want one.
rconti 9y ago
Yeah. I've got a couple of good old fashioned regular performance cars here in the SF bay area. I'd love to have the excuse (read: carpool lane access, long commute, whatever) to buy an electric but there's just no "need" in my life for a new vehicle. That said, the penetration rate of electric vehicles as a proportion of new vehicles here is staggering. The Model S easily outsells any competitor's luxury car in the same class, you'd have to combine all A6 / 5 series / E Class sales to even hope to show the same numbers. And I can see why -- if you want to plunk down all this cash for a new car, why not get something truly new, not something outdated? My uncle is very frugal and has spent years looking at buying a new car and then up and ordered a (very base) Model S with the reasoning, if I'm spending all this money, I want to spend the money on future tech, not old tech. Even sitting in my 2016 car this morning, in the cold, I was thinking how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot, and how funny all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning. It already feels out of date.
- codeulike 9y ago
  You might enjoy this tongue-in-cheek 'Test Drive of a Petrol Car' written by a Swedish Tesla owner back in 2015 http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/ http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/
  - BatFastard 9y ago
    That is fabulous!
- mikestew 9y ago
  It already feels out of date More than that, after six years of Leaf ownership it feels downright primitive. In our ‘81 VW it’s acceptable because, hey, it’s an old vehicle. You know, back when you could really feel what a car’s doing, blah, blah, blah. But in a modern $50K car? Turning mechanical gears to get that rattling contraption of an ICE going, gawd, I’m surprised you didn’t make me crank it by hand. To refuel it, I have to go out of my way to a specialist vendor? Not just plug it in when I get home? Sounds silly unless you’ve owned an EV, but it truly represents my feelings even when driving our smooth, reliable Scion. But as the old canard goes, if I have to explain then you wouldn’t understand.
  - funnelsgun 9y ago
    > You know, back when you could really feel what a car’s doing, blah, blah, blah. There is an argument to be made for this. In most new cars, whether ICE or electric, electric power steering racks have almost removed all feedback through the wheel. Feedback is good, it communicates what the wheels are doing, what the road surface is like, what traction is like, etc... and I'd argue that good steering feedback is important for safe driving.
    - mikestew 9y ago
      There is an argument to be made for this. There most certainly is, for a tiny, tiny minority of people who buy cars. That’s why I used it as example. Picture the older middle-aged guy going on about how “cars back then..” until your eyes glaze (and if you’ve met me, you’ll have a working example). Yeah, nobody cares, old man, my ‘08 Corolla was cheap. I already typed this before you deleted, so I’m putting it here. :-) In summary, I think “feel” matters to a small number of people. To those that notice (I count myself amongst them), it’s pretty important. To the vast majority of drivers I think that as long as the car gets them to work it’s good enough. The reason I used it as an example is because the ones I find that will argue the importance of “feel” are old, rambling guys like me. IOW, I was originally making of myself to some degree.
      - deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
- semi-extrinsic 9y ago
  > The Model S easily outsells any competitor's luxury car in the same class, you'd have to combine all A6 / 5 series / E Class sales to even hope to show the same numbers. In the US, Tesla's home market, yes. But if you go to Europe, it changes completely - those three models you listed average a combined annual European sales volume north of 300 000, which is more than the global total of all Tesla cars ever sold. The only way Tesla will be anything but an SV-hype-fueled anecdote is if they can actually deliver on the Model 3 next year, and it ain't looking too peachy. I mean, GM's outselling them on chargeable vehicles in the US this year.
  - dripton 9y ago
    https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ says Tesla 40812, GM 38699. That's with only 712 Model 3s sold. If the 3 ramps at all, it will not be close. Edit: GM 38699. I initially missed the 179 CT6s, 21 Spark EVs, and 17 ELRs at the bottom of the table.
    - semi-extrinsic 9y ago
      If you just repeat the November numbers in December, you get GM higher. The Bolt and Volt is actually ramping up, while Tesla is flat.
      - dripton 9y ago
        December numbers will be available in a couple of weeks, and then we'll know for sure. Model 3 numbers have ramped up in December. In 2018, unless Tesla has serious unfixable production problems, it won't be close. I don't know how many Model 3s Tesla can make next year, but I know they can sell them all...
        dripton 9y ago
        https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ December: Tesla 9335, GM 5173
- funnelsgun 9y ago
  > all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning but the cold-start is the best part! reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exenWWOK_2o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exenWWOK_2o
- DrScump 9y ago
  how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot [EDIT: extended quote to full clause] Dude. The overnight LOW in SF Downtown was 49F, and I doubt anywhere in the Bay Area proper even hit 40F. You need not wait longer than 15 seconds or so to put 'er in gear and go. This isn't Buffalo.
  - jakemoshenko 9y ago
    ... the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot You conveniently truncated the quote to change the issue. If they wanted heat, they have to wait longer than 15s.
    - DrScump 9y ago
      I changed the quote to include the entire clause, but the concept still makes no sense to me in a Bay Area context (heck, I'm wearing shorts today). How many EVs produce passenger heat in meaningful amounts immediately (even ignoring the added battery drain), and how much of a burden is 50+-degree in-car temperatures for a few minutes while you're already in outdoor clothing?
      - lscotte 9y ago
        Few - Many electric cars use inefficient electric heat that draws as much battery power as the traction motors. Some have more efficient heat pumps, but not all. Regardless, heat is no more instant in an EV than a conventional vehicle.
        sitkack 9y ago
        Not to be technically correct, but electric heat is 100% efficient.
        sgc 9y ago
        A heat pump can be more than 100% efficient in the sense you seem to be talking about. It transfers heat from one area to another, and can bring in more heat to a space than the energy used could produce in heat through a resistive heating element. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump
- Jill_the_Pill 9y ago
  "there's just no "need" in my life for a new vehicle" You mean no need in your life besides our shared need to reduce atmospheric carbon, oil extraction, and other automobile pollutants, to keep climate change to a level merely devastating rather than catastrophic, and to preserve a habitable planet for the generations to come?
  - chc 9y ago
    I'm pretty sure your old car would have to be especially awful to make buying a new car — electric or not — the environmentally friendly option.
  - xbmcuser 9y ago
    Junking an older car with a newer electric car won't decrease your carbon footprint but increase it. But if you are in the market to buy a car going electric or hybrid should be the way to go. Obama fuel efficiency rules were good but didn't go far enough by now car manufacturer should not be allowed to sell non hybrid fuel cars at all.
  - rconti 9y ago
    I travel about 400 miles per month by car in a vehicle that gets 25mpg. That's 16 gallons/month or 281.6lb of CO2 per month. What's the break-even on how many lbs of CO2 I'd have to pump into the atmosphere before it was more environmentally friendly to produce an entire new automobile with 800lbs of batteries?
- nine_k 9y ago
  I thought the killer feature of electric cars is recuperative braking. So I suppose that a reasonably lightweight electric car should be perfect for city commute with constant start / stop on traffic lights, and for congested roads of SV. Long commute, OTOH, seems favorable for a well-built ICE car.
- gnu8 9y ago
  > Even sitting in my 2016 car this morning, in the cold, I was thinking how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot, and how funny all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning. It already feels out of date. The way we northerners deal with that is to have a remote starter installed in our car. By the time we're done putting on our coats and shoes, kissing our wives, and brushing the accumulated snow off the car, the heater is blowing hot and it is fairly comfortable inside. I will grant that this does burn some gas, but how much range in comparison does an electric car sacrifice by heating the cabin off battery power over your entire commute?
  - bkjelden 9y ago
    If your car is plugged in it can use wall power to pre-heat before your commute, similar to remote start.
    - gnu8 9y ago
      Pre-heating is great, but if your commute is very long it can't make much difference. Traditionally, vehicles are very poorly insulated and it isn't a big problem because their heat is a free waste product. Electric vehicles really need a level of insulation they haven't even considered yet.
BackPropagate 9y ago
Your LEAF is a golf cart. Leaf people are gay.
smsm42 9y ago
I'm not sure how that would work. So far I see these obstacles/concerns: 1. Range. Right now I can drive ~400 miles on a fill. Can I get even close to that in EV? 2. Refills. I am pretty sure wherever I go, there would be a gas station within tens of miles. And I'm pretty sure most maps or GPS devices I would have would be able to point me to it. With electric car, not only I have to worry about finding charging station (or even plan the trip around its presence) but I'm not even sure how to find one. Would my GPS device show it? Would it work with my car (Tesla ones e.g. work only with Teslas)? Would I need some kind of subscription/registration to access it? I imagine being anxious about these things would be pretty annoying (unless it's already solved somehow - I have no idea). 3. Do I need to have charging station at home? What if I move - would I need to get a new one or pay to move it? What if I need to go somewhere at night and the car isn't charged yet? Would I need to buy special "fast charge" station? What if one day I'm too tired at the evening and forget to plug in the car for the night? 4. With ICE car, I am sure any competent mechanic would be able to take care of the most problems with my car. Electric cars are new, most mechanics had no training for them and no experience with them, and manufacturing solutions and practices would be very non-uniform - how I find the good service and how I make sure he doesn't use relative scarcity on the market to fleece me? 5. If I want to sell this car, what would the resale value be? Would I be able to resell it at all, or would it be the analogue of 5 year old smartphone, worth tiny fraction of the premium price it fetched only recently? 6. Wouldn't buying now, when the technology is still developing, lock me in with inferior first-try technology while superior one will show up in 5 years and make my car not only look like Flintstone's carriage but also drive its resale value down and maybe make it unusable due to chargers switching to newer superior standard of something? I'd like to hear how these concerns are resolved.
- jblow 9y ago
  1. My EV (Tesla Roadster, updated battery) goes 340 miles on one charge. Admittedly it is a small car. The new Tesla Roadster slated for 2020 goes 620 miles on one charge. Admittedly that is an expensive car. But you should be able to get good range in a less-expensive car at that point. 2. Newer Teslas (Model S, Model X, Model 3) have charger planning built into their standard map program. About other EVs, if I were an EV manufacturer I would do a license deal with Tesla to allow my cars to use their charging network. But maybe they'll build their own. The one Tesla built is pretty good ... if a small company can do that, GM can do way more, and do it faster. So even though "there's no infrastructure" has been raised as this huge problem for years, it does not in actuality look like much of a problem. 3. Good electric cars have their own charging circuitry built in, so you just plug it into the wall. You can even charge off 110 volts, though it takes a long time. A dryer socket is much more reasonable. Just being able to plug in your car, in your garage, is much more convenient than going to a gas station. (This presumes you have a garage to park in. If you park on the street, different story.) 4. Electric motors and drivetrains are much simpler and much more robust than mechanical engines and drivetrains. Electric cars just do not tend to need repair in the same way. (I have had my car for over 7 years and it has never yet needed a repair of this kind). 5. Tesla Roadsters still hold their value very well, considering. But this may be in part due to the fact that it's a rare car. I am not sure about the Leaf, etc. 6. Maybe, yeah.

jseliger 9y ago

I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think Yes. That's the other thing: the best argument for an electric car is driving one—particularly a Tesla. The minute most of the population has access to one (from a friend, family, whatever), they're going to want one.

rconti 9y ago

Yeah. I've got a couple of good old fashioned regular performance cars here in the SF bay area. I'd love to have the excuse (read: carpool lane access, long commute, whatever) to buy an electric but there's just no "need" in my life for a new vehicle. That said, the penetration rate of electric vehicles as a proportion of new vehicles here is staggering. The Model S easily outsells any competitor's luxury car in the same class, you'd have to combine all A6 / 5 series / E Class sales to even hope to show the same numbers. And I can see why -- if you want to plunk down all this cash for a new car, why not get something truly new, not something outdated? My uncle is very frugal and has spent years looking at buying a new car and then up and ordered a (very base) Model S with the reasoning, if I'm spending all this money, I want to spend the money on future tech, not old tech. Even sitting in my 2016 car this morning, in the cold, I was thinking how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot, and how funny all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning. It already feels out of date.

codeulike 9y ago
You might enjoy this tongue-in-cheek 'Test Drive of a Petrol Car' written by a Swedish Tesla owner back in 2015 http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/ http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/
- BatFastard 9y ago
  That is fabulous!
mikestew 9y ago
It already feels out of date More than that, after six years of Leaf ownership it feels downright primitive. In our ‘81 VW it’s acceptable because, hey, it’s an old vehicle. You know, back when you could really feel what a car’s doing, blah, blah, blah. But in a modern $50K car? Turning mechanical gears to get that rattling contraption of an ICE going, gawd, I’m surprised you didn’t make me crank it by hand. To refuel it, I have to go out of my way to a specialist vendor? Not just plug it in when I get home? Sounds silly unless you’ve owned an EV, but it truly represents my feelings even when driving our smooth, reliable Scion. But as the old canard goes, if I have to explain then you wouldn’t understand.
- funnelsgun 9y ago
  > You know, back when you could really feel what a car’s doing, blah, blah, blah. There is an argument to be made for this. In most new cars, whether ICE or electric, electric power steering racks have almost removed all feedback through the wheel. Feedback is good, it communicates what the wheels are doing, what the road surface is like, what traction is like, etc... and I'd argue that good steering feedback is important for safe driving.
  - mikestew 9y ago
    There is an argument to be made for this. There most certainly is, for a tiny, tiny minority of people who buy cars. That’s why I used it as example. Picture the older middle-aged guy going on about how “cars back then..” until your eyes glaze (and if you’ve met me, you’ll have a working example). Yeah, nobody cares, old man, my ‘08 Corolla was cheap. I already typed this before you deleted, so I’m putting it here. :-) In summary, I think “feel” matters to a small number of people. To those that notice (I count myself amongst them), it’s pretty important. To the vast majority of drivers I think that as long as the car gets them to work it’s good enough. The reason I used it as an example is because the ones I find that will argue the importance of “feel” are old, rambling guys like me. IOW, I was originally making of myself to some degree.
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
semi-extrinsic 9y ago
> The Model S easily outsells any competitor's luxury car in the same class, you'd have to combine all A6 / 5 series / E Class sales to even hope to show the same numbers. In the US, Tesla's home market, yes. But if you go to Europe, it changes completely - those three models you listed average a combined annual European sales volume north of 300 000, which is more than the global total of all Tesla cars ever sold. The only way Tesla will be anything but an SV-hype-fueled anecdote is if they can actually deliver on the Model 3 next year, and it ain't looking too peachy. I mean, GM's outselling them on chargeable vehicles in the US this year.
- dripton 9y ago
  https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ says Tesla 40812, GM 38699. That's with only 712 Model 3s sold. If the 3 ramps at all, it will not be close. Edit: GM 38699. I initially missed the 179 CT6s, 21 Spark EVs, and 17 ELRs at the bottom of the table.
  - semi-extrinsic 9y ago
    If you just repeat the November numbers in December, you get GM higher. The Bolt and Volt is actually ramping up, while Tesla is flat.
    - dripton 9y ago
      December numbers will be available in a couple of weeks, and then we'll know for sure. Model 3 numbers have ramped up in December. In 2018, unless Tesla has serious unfixable production problems, it won't be close. I don't know how many Model 3s Tesla can make next year, but I know they can sell them all...
      - dripton 9y ago
        https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ December: Tesla 9335, GM 5173
funnelsgun 9y ago
> all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning but the cold-start is the best part! reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exenWWOK_2o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exenWWOK_2o
DrScump 9y ago
how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot [EDIT: extended quote to full clause] Dude. The overnight LOW in SF Downtown was 49F, and I doubt anywhere in the Bay Area proper even hit 40F. You need not wait longer than 15 seconds or so to put 'er in gear and go. This isn't Buffalo.
- jakemoshenko 9y ago
  ... the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot You conveniently truncated the quote to change the issue. If they wanted heat, they have to wait longer than 15s.
  - DrScump 9y ago
    I changed the quote to include the entire clause, but the concept still makes no sense to me in a Bay Area context (heck, I'm wearing shorts today). How many EVs produce passenger heat in meaningful amounts immediately (even ignoring the added battery drain), and how much of a burden is 50+-degree in-car temperatures for a few minutes while you're already in outdoor clothing?
    - lscotte 9y ago
      Few - Many electric cars use inefficient electric heat that draws as much battery power as the traction motors. Some have more efficient heat pumps, but not all. Regardless, heat is no more instant in an EV than a conventional vehicle.
      - sitkack 9y ago
        Not to be technically correct, but electric heat is 100% efficient.
        sgc 9y ago
        A heat pump can be more than 100% efficient in the sense you seem to be talking about. It transfers heat from one area to another, and can bring in more heat to a space than the energy used could produce in heat through a resistive heating element. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump
Jill_the_Pill 9y ago
"there's just no "need" in my life for a new vehicle" You mean no need in your life besides our shared need to reduce atmospheric carbon, oil extraction, and other automobile pollutants, to keep climate change to a level merely devastating rather than catastrophic, and to preserve a habitable planet for the generations to come?
- chc 9y ago
  I'm pretty sure your old car would have to be especially awful to make buying a new car — electric or not — the environmentally friendly option.
- xbmcuser 9y ago
  Junking an older car with a newer electric car won't decrease your carbon footprint but increase it. But if you are in the market to buy a car going electric or hybrid should be the way to go. Obama fuel efficiency rules were good but didn't go far enough by now car manufacturer should not be allowed to sell non hybrid fuel cars at all.
- rconti 9y ago
  I travel about 400 miles per month by car in a vehicle that gets 25mpg. That's 16 gallons/month or 281.6lb of CO2 per month. What's the break-even on how many lbs of CO2 I'd have to pump into the atmosphere before it was more environmentally friendly to produce an entire new automobile with 800lbs of batteries?
nine_k 9y ago
I thought the killer feature of electric cars is recuperative braking. So I suppose that a reasonably lightweight electric car should be perfect for city commute with constant start / stop on traffic lights, and for congested roads of SV. Long commute, OTOH, seems favorable for a well-built ICE car.
gnu8 9y ago
> Even sitting in my 2016 car this morning, in the cold, I was thinking how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot, and how funny all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning. It already feels out of date. The way we northerners deal with that is to have a remote starter installed in our car. By the time we're done putting on our coats and shoes, kissing our wives, and brushing the accumulated snow off the car, the heater is blowing hot and it is fairly comfortable inside. I will grant that this does burn some gas, but how much range in comparison does an electric car sacrifice by heating the cabin off battery power over your entire commute?
- bkjelden 9y ago
  If your car is plugged in it can use wall power to pre-heat before your commute, similar to remote start.
  - gnu8 9y ago
    Pre-heating is great, but if your commute is very long it can't make much difference. Traditionally, vehicles are very poorly insulated and it isn't a big problem because their heat is a free waste product. Electric vehicles really need a level of insulation they haven't even considered yet.

BackPropagate 9y ago

Your LEAF is a golf cart. Leaf people are gay.

smsm42 9y ago

I'm not sure how that would work. So far I see these obstacles/concerns: 1. Range. Right now I can drive ~400 miles on a fill. Can I get even close to that in EV? 2. Refills. I am pretty sure wherever I go, there would be a gas station within tens of miles. And I'm pretty sure most maps or GPS devices I would have would be able to point me to it. With electric car, not only I have to worry about finding charging station (or even plan the trip around its presence) but I'm not even sure how to find one. Would my GPS device show it? Would it work with my car (Tesla ones e.g. work only with Teslas)? Would I need some kind of subscription/registration to access it? I imagine being anxious about these things would be pretty annoying (unless it's already solved somehow - I have no idea). 3. Do I need to have charging station at home? What if I move - would I need to get a new one or pay to move it? What if I need to go somewhere at night and the car isn't charged yet? Would I need to buy special "fast charge" station? What if one day I'm too tired at the evening and forget to plug in the car for the night? 4. With ICE car, I am sure any competent mechanic would be able to take care of the most problems with my car. Electric cars are new, most mechanics had no training for them and no experience with them, and manufacturing solutions and practices would be very non-uniform - how I find the good service and how I make sure he doesn't use relative scarcity on the market to fleece me? 5. If I want to sell this car, what would the resale value be? Would I be able to resell it at all, or would it be the analogue of 5 year old smartphone, worth tiny fraction of the premium price it fetched only recently? 6. Wouldn't buying now, when the technology is still developing, lock me in with inferior first-try technology while superior one will show up in 5 years and make my car not only look like Flintstone's carriage but also drive its resale value down and maybe make it unusable due to chargers switching to newer superior standard of something? I'd like to hear how these concerns are resolved.

jblow 9y ago
1. My EV (Tesla Roadster, updated battery) goes 340 miles on one charge. Admittedly it is a small car. The new Tesla Roadster slated for 2020 goes 620 miles on one charge. Admittedly that is an expensive car. But you should be able to get good range in a less-expensive car at that point. 2. Newer Teslas (Model S, Model X, Model 3) have charger planning built into their standard map program. About other EVs, if I were an EV manufacturer I would do a license deal with Tesla to allow my cars to use their charging network. But maybe they'll build their own. The one Tesla built is pretty good ... if a small company can do that, GM can do way more, and do it faster. So even though "there's no infrastructure" has been raised as this huge problem for years, it does not in actuality look like much of a problem. 3. Good electric cars have their own charging circuitry built in, so you just plug it into the wall. You can even charge off 110 volts, though it takes a long time. A dryer socket is much more reasonable. Just being able to plug in your car, in your garage, is much more convenient than going to a gas station. (This presumes you have a garage to park in. If you park on the street, different story.) 4. Electric motors and drivetrains are much simpler and much more robust than mechanical engines and drivetrains. Electric cars just do not tend to need repair in the same way. (I have had my car for over 7 years and it has never yet needed a repair of this kind). 5. Tesla Roadsters still hold their value very well, considering. But this may be in part due to the fact that it's a rare car. I am not sure about the Leaf, etc. 6. Maybe, yeah.