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This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. IIRC, Uber did $16B last year in revenue and paid something like $13B to drivers. Self driving vehicles will

This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. IIRC, Uber did $16B last year in revenue and paid something like $13B to drivers. Self driving vehicles will turn their current breakeven/loser business models into massive cash cows.

evv 9y ago
Clearly this is the thinking of both companies, but I'm not convinced it makes sense. The $13B that Uber paid out last year gave them access to a scalable network of ~7M vehicles, not just the drivers. Even if they reach level 5 autonomy before they run out of runway, how long will it take to build out a network of that size?
- bookmarkacc 9y ago
  Who ever gets self driving down first can get as many cars are they want. Two scenarios: "Let Uber drive you to work for free then pay you to use your car for the day. We'll cover the gas!" "GM is happy to partner with Lyft to be the first self diving car! GM Good. GM Hip"
  - CPLX 9y ago
    Which of those two sentences is the one that's going to create seven million cars out of thin air and then maintain, manage, and insure them?
    - mcny 9y ago
      What do we do when someone pukes in the driverless uber?
      - zanedb 9y ago
        ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
      - shiftpgdn 9y ago
        Open app, report problem with the vehicle and request something different. Problem vehicle will be taken out of service for review.
        Someone 9y ago
        I would also put multiple cameras in each car, and train a network on “car is clean” and the related “car is empty” (you could, for example, ask the customer that just left “did you leave your bag in the car?”) To signal to passengers that you won’t record them during the ride, give the cameras nice red LEDs when in operation, and be open about what you do.
        kelnos 9y ago
        > To signal to passengers that you won’t record them during the ride I doubt this would even be a concern. Many Uber/Lyft drivers already record interior and exterior views for the duration of every ride. And I don't see anything wrong with that. Hell, think about: "The rider after you reported damage to the car that you didn't report. Therefore you did it and are responsible for paying for it." "Where's your proof? Maybe I just didn't notice the damage and it was the rider before me -- it's not my job to inspect your cars. Or maybe the rider after me damaged the car -- possibly even on purpose -- and then blamed me." They'd be foolish not to record every single ride, from multiple angles if possible.
        mcny 9y ago
        > Problem vehicle will be taken out of service for review. I am thinking like a public transit subway in New York. We cannot have anything you can't pressure wash. However, that also brings up the problem of traffic congestion and automation (as well as comfort and ergonomics?). Can we automate the process of sanitizing a car? Will passengers accept (cold) plastic and aluminum surfaces everywhere?
- greentrust 9y ago
  That's not 7M vehicles concurrently though. At any given time maybe there are a few hundred thousand trips happening. With self-driving cars utilization can go way up since they're not tied to a human. and. So I imagine Goog/Lyft/Uber etc would quickly acquire a fleet of 100k vehicles for a few billion dollars.
adventured 9y ago
I'm curious what's going to inevitably eat into that potential margin. The most profitable large scale businesses are Visa and Facebook. After the corporate tax change, both should get near 50% net income margins (Visa is at 44% last quarter; Facebook was at 46%). I could see some of it getting competed away vs Lyft, given back to consumers in lower fares. Some to typical bloat with scale & age. Perhaps higher local taxes on their business, as the cities they make all their money in will hit them that much more if they're not employing drivers. And of course those millions of vehicles will have a high cost in terms of maintenance, replacement, vandalism, etc.
toomuchtodo 9y ago
Neither Uber or Lyft will reach full autonomy before exhausting their runway, unless a miracle occurs and they solve level 5 within the next 1-2 years (caveat: it could happen, but it’s very unlikely). You can’t do hundreds of millions of dollars in raises forever without some proof of progress (or maybe you can if SoftBank is willing to pour money in for a decade). At some point, someone is going to be left holding the bag when it’s evident that the last 20% is the hardest part (but mandatory for level 5 service).
- yeukhon 9y ago
  Not just that, getting self-driving approved with regulators is a major challenge. Also, to achieve level 5 we need not just algorithm improvement, our physical infrastructure need to be improved as well. On intersection, two human drivers wave at each other to decide who goes first. How should the human driver communicate with the machine? What should the machine do when there is a dog standing in the middle of a street? Move on and let a human driver take care of it? Isn’t that now a bystander effect? These are just some examples I am not sure if textbook definition of level 5 will address. Going really extreme: in a car accident in a somewhat remote area, the driver might be able to get an injured passenger out if the passenger stuck. Now a fully autonomous car, there is only passenger. Yes, for sure this is extreme and perhaps likely a dramatic scene only, but it is one of those edge cases we can’t cover in a self-driving car.
  - JoshTriplett 9y ago
    > How should the human driver communicate with the machine? In theory, a self-driving car could watch for hand-based turn signals, just like a human driver could, and take those into account. In practice, what someone signals is far less interesting than what they do, and all it does is provide hints for reaction time, which 1) a computer already wins at, and 2) a computer should always leave enough time for braking/stopping/etc anyway. A human driver should never make an assumption based on someone's turn signal that would lead to a crash if they don't do what they're signaling, and neither should a computer. > What should the machine do when there is a dog standing in the middle of a street? Don't hit it (stopping if necessary), and listen when the human in the vehicle says "stop" (or "call animal control", or any number of other reactions). The human in the vehicle should always be in control of the high-level actions, just not the moment-to-moment ones. > Going really extreme: in a car accident in a somewhat remote area, the driver might be able to get an injured passenger out if the passenger stuck. Now a fully autonomous car, there is only passenger. Not sure what scenario you're getting at here. If you mean a driver and passenger in the same vehicle, the same problem exists today with an injured driver.
melvinmt 9y ago
> This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. I believe so too, but from a slightly different angle: I believe self-driving vehicles will literally mean the end for both Uber & Lyft (and they only accelerate their fate by investing into it). To understand why: their inherent value is their ability to match human drivers with customers. They both do such a good job at it, that the switching costs between the 2 apps are quite low (first sign of weak competitive advantage). Now, take away the difficult problem of finding human drivers at the right place and the right time. You now have self-driving cars that make no mistakes, have no scheduling issues, do not get tired etc. It’s way easier to fullfil demand. But, you’re not the only one working on this problem. Google, Tesla, (probably Apple too) are all actively working on the same problem. And they probably have 10X the computing/engineering/cash/data resources to solve this problem. What are Uber/Lyft left with? A fancy app with a button (which they have already proven to easily clone). Not only that, they also have to compete with the native operating systems (and future devices) that the big corps control. They don’t even own their maps! So yes, in 2023, you will probably be able to order a Level-5 self driving vehicle to your doorstep with a wink of your half robotic eye, but it will not be Uber or Lyft.
- nemothekid 9y ago
  Tesla has 10x the computing/engineering/cash/data resources to solve the self driving car problem than Uber? In revenue/market cap/profit Uber and Tesla are nearly equal in size. The way I see it, Lyft and Uber are already "big corps", and there are likely several logistic concerns that give Lyft/Uber a major head start on Google despite Google's alleged software superiority. However, I don't see Google releasing a massive self driving fleet in San Francisco and simultaneously capturing significant market share overnight.
  - bendauphinee 9y ago
    Tesla already has a fleet of cars mining driving data for it, putting them way ahead of Uber.
    - greentrust 9y ago

evv 9y ago

Clearly this is the thinking of both companies, but I'm not convinced it makes sense. The $13B that Uber paid out last year gave them access to a scalable network of ~7M vehicles, not just the drivers. Even if they reach level 5 autonomy before they run out of runway, how long will it take to build out a network of that size?

bookmarkacc 9y ago
Who ever gets self driving down first can get as many cars are they want. Two scenarios: "Let Uber drive you to work for free then pay you to use your car for the day. We'll cover the gas!" "GM is happy to partner with Lyft to be the first self diving car! GM Good. GM Hip"
- CPLX 9y ago
  Which of those two sentences is the one that's going to create seven million cars out of thin air and then maintain, manage, and insure them?
  - mcny 9y ago
    What do we do when someone pukes in the driverless uber?
    - zanedb 9y ago
      ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    - shiftpgdn 9y ago
      Open app, report problem with the vehicle and request something different. Problem vehicle will be taken out of service for review.
      - Someone 9y ago
        I would also put multiple cameras in each car, and train a network on “car is clean” and the related “car is empty” (you could, for example, ask the customer that just left “did you leave your bag in the car?”) To signal to passengers that you won’t record them during the ride, give the cameras nice red LEDs when in operation, and be open about what you do.
        kelnos 9y ago
        > To signal to passengers that you won’t record them during the ride I doubt this would even be a concern. Many Uber/Lyft drivers already record interior and exterior views for the duration of every ride. And I don't see anything wrong with that. Hell, think about: "The rider after you reported damage to the car that you didn't report. Therefore you did it and are responsible for paying for it." "Where's your proof? Maybe I just didn't notice the damage and it was the rider before me -- it's not my job to inspect your cars. Or maybe the rider after me damaged the car -- possibly even on purpose -- and then blamed me." They'd be foolish not to record every single ride, from multiple angles if possible.
        mcny 9y ago
        > Problem vehicle will be taken out of service for review. I am thinking like a public transit subway in New York. We cannot have anything you can't pressure wash. However, that also brings up the problem of traffic congestion and automation (as well as comfort and ergonomics?). Can we automate the process of sanitizing a car? Will passengers accept (cold) plastic and aluminum surfaces everywhere?
greentrust 9y ago
That's not 7M vehicles concurrently though. At any given time maybe there are a few hundred thousand trips happening. With self-driving cars utilization can go way up since they're not tied to a human. and. So I imagine Goog/Lyft/Uber etc would quickly acquire a fleet of 100k vehicles for a few billion dollars.

adventured 9y ago

I'm curious what's going to inevitably eat into that potential margin. The most profitable large scale businesses are Visa and Facebook. After the corporate tax change, both should get near 50% net income margins (Visa is at 44% last quarter; Facebook was at 46%). I could see some of it getting competed away vs Lyft, given back to consumers in lower fares. Some to typical bloat with scale & age. Perhaps higher local taxes on their business, as the cities they make all their money in will hit them that much more if they're not employing drivers. And of course those millions of vehicles will have a high cost in terms of maintenance, replacement, vandalism, etc.

toomuchtodo 9y ago

Neither Uber or Lyft will reach full autonomy before exhausting their runway, unless a miracle occurs and they solve level 5 within the next 1-2 years (caveat: it could happen, but it’s very unlikely). You can’t do hundreds of millions of dollars in raises forever without some proof of progress (or maybe you can if SoftBank is willing to pour money in for a decade). At some point, someone is going to be left holding the bag when it’s evident that the last 20% is the hardest part (but mandatory for level 5 service).

yeukhon 9y ago
Not just that, getting self-driving approved with regulators is a major challenge. Also, to achieve level 5 we need not just algorithm improvement, our physical infrastructure need to be improved as well. On intersection, two human drivers wave at each other to decide who goes first. How should the human driver communicate with the machine? What should the machine do when there is a dog standing in the middle of a street? Move on and let a human driver take care of it? Isn’t that now a bystander effect? These are just some examples I am not sure if textbook definition of level 5 will address. Going really extreme: in a car accident in a somewhat remote area, the driver might be able to get an injured passenger out if the passenger stuck. Now a fully autonomous car, there is only passenger. Yes, for sure this is extreme and perhaps likely a dramatic scene only, but it is one of those edge cases we can’t cover in a self-driving car.
- JoshTriplett 9y ago
  > How should the human driver communicate with the machine? In theory, a self-driving car could watch for hand-based turn signals, just like a human driver could, and take those into account. In practice, what someone signals is far less interesting than what they do, and all it does is provide hints for reaction time, which 1) a computer already wins at, and 2) a computer should always leave enough time for braking/stopping/etc anyway. A human driver should never make an assumption based on someone's turn signal that would lead to a crash if they don't do what they're signaling, and neither should a computer. > What should the machine do when there is a dog standing in the middle of a street? Don't hit it (stopping if necessary), and listen when the human in the vehicle says "stop" (or "call animal control", or any number of other reactions). The human in the vehicle should always be in control of the high-level actions, just not the moment-to-moment ones. > Going really extreme: in a car accident in a somewhat remote area, the driver might be able to get an injured passenger out if the passenger stuck. Now a fully autonomous car, there is only passenger. Not sure what scenario you're getting at here. If you mean a driver and passenger in the same vehicle, the same problem exists today with an injured driver.

melvinmt 9y ago

> This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. I believe so too, but from a slightly different angle: I believe self-driving vehicles will literally mean the end for both Uber & Lyft (and they only accelerate their fate by investing into it). To understand why: their inherent value is their ability to match human drivers with customers. They both do such a good job at it, that the switching costs between the 2 apps are quite low (first sign of weak competitive advantage). Now, take away the difficult problem of finding human drivers at the right place and the right time. You now have self-driving cars that make no mistakes, have no scheduling issues, do not get tired etc. It’s way easier to fullfil demand. But, you’re not the only one working on this problem. Google, Tesla, (probably Apple too) are all actively working on the same problem. And they probably have 10X the computing/engineering/cash/data resources to solve this problem. What are Uber/Lyft left with? A fancy app with a button (which they have already proven to easily clone). Not only that, they also have to compete with the native operating systems (and future devices) that the big corps control. They don’t even own their maps! So yes, in 2023, you will probably be able to order a Level-5 self driving vehicle to your doorstep with a wink of your half robotic eye, but it will not be Uber or Lyft.

nemothekid 9y ago
Tesla has 10x the computing/engineering/cash/data resources to solve the self driving car problem than Uber? In revenue/market cap/profit Uber and Tesla are nearly equal in size. The way I see it, Lyft and Uber are already "big corps", and there are likely several logistic concerns that give Lyft/Uber a major head start on Google despite Google's alleged software superiority. However, I don't see Google releasing a massive self driving fleet in San Francisco and simultaneously capturing significant market share overnight.
- bendauphinee 9y ago
  Tesla already has a fleet of cars mining driving data for it, putting them way ahead of Uber.
  - greentrust 9y ago