13 ms·

2017 Was Bad for Facebook. 2018 Will Be Worse

302 points by Cbasedlifeform 9y ago

anocendi 9y ago
Yes! It will definitely be worse for people who are not investing in FB stock.
- dominotw 9y ago
  2017 was bad for people who didn't buy facebook stock.
debacle 9y ago
FUD. Mostly unsubstantiated. Written like Facebook is a pre-IPO company not a publicly traded one.
robbiep 9y ago
Every technological revolution has profound effects on society, our brains and our ability to interact. Witness [0]. From the printing press to the internet, a change occurs, it affects our brain and the way we interact, and then eventually we begin to deal. The start of the vaccine(/backlash/response) to social media has begun. [0] https://xkcd.com/1227/ https://xkcd.com/1227/
- zelos 9y ago
  Not that I don't take the point, but presumably if mankind were in an endless decline into intellectual laziness, then each of the writers in that XKCD comic would be correct: they'd each be sampling a different segment of the same downward slope.
  - CodeCube 9y ago
    I'm torn between wanting to agree with you ("Idiocracy is a documentary!", et al), and the cognitive dissonance of the greater and greater scientific and technological achievements we continue to create. Maybe there's an analogue at work here; like financial/wealth inequality, but for intellect (that feels incredibly elitist to 'verbalize').
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
  - watwut 9y ago
    On average, we are much better educated then in 1871 and spend waaay more time learning. So I doubt we are in that endless decline into itellectual laziness.
- bungie4 9y ago
  I love xkcd, and the point the cartoon makes is not lost on me. However, one could also argue that the thoughts expressed more than a 100 years ago are still true today and have only accelerated still further. We are humans with finite limits on our capacities. While machines got faster, smarter and more flexible, we have not.
YCode 9y ago
> "ripping apart the social fabric." ... "literally changes your relationship with society, with each other ... God only knows what it's doing to our children's brains." I'm not saying he's entirely wrong, but a lot of what he's saying sounds very much like how TV was once described.
- the-dude 9y ago
  I remember there were no significant programs broadcasted during the day in NL ( ~1980 ). Now the average adult in the US watches 5 hours a day, 35 hours a week. Were they wrong?
  - RyanZAG 9y ago
    They definitely weren't wrong. But at the same time, it shows that this isn't a good argument against Facebook, and that it likely means we'll be using Facebook more in future instead of less. Probably to our detriment, but definitely to Facebook's profit.
  - sanyangkkun 9y ago
    I didn't believe you when I read this but...damn http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/average-american-watches-5-hours-tv-day-article-1.1711954 http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/average-american-watch...
  - ams6110 9y ago
    TV has also changed dramatically in the last decade. With Netflix, Amazon Video, Youtube, etc (not strictly TV I guess but similar) it's possible to waste days on end binge-watching entire seasons of TV shows, in many cases ad-free. That was never possible in the past.
    - the-dude 9y ago
      Which is a nice hypothesis, but Nielsen says it isn't so : http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/average-american-watches-5-hours-tv-day-article-1.1711954 http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/average-american-watch...
matte_black 9y ago
2017 was bad? My FB stock doesn’t seem to think so.
- greggarious 9y ago
  Be sure to balance out your portfolio with some Uber and Blackberry
  - sergiotapia 9y ago
    Also make sure you invest heavily in Enron.
    - trendia 9y ago
      And Tesla. Oh wait, too soon?
      - ryandrake 9y ago
        Don't forget to diversify with some bitcoins
        ctrlaltdestroy 9y ago
        Diversify your digital currency with litecoin and other cryptocurrencies
        matte_black 9y ago
        I actually bought litecoins the other day. I want to point out you can invest in something that you think will end up giving a good return even if you personally disagree with what the company or security does. I'd love to be wrong on my investment and see Facebook crumble and society free from it's harmful influences, but if that doesn't happen, at least the money I get from it's ever rising stock price will give me some comfort for a while. It's a win-win scenario, and pre-empts me from taking any stance in favor or against Facebook, which actually has some present value for me.
danschumann 9y ago
I still like that article "facebook is the junkfood of relationships". Such an apt metaphor.
- l5870uoo9y 9y ago
  Let us hope that facebook won't be allowed to have the same profound negative effects on human health as junk food have.
- j_s 9y ago
  Facebook Is the Junk Food of Socializing (2015) | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15782014 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15782014 two weeks ago. >kenning: I think cigarettes are a great comparison. I heard it a few years back. When popular, a huge amount of the population used cigarettes despite growing research showing that it had a slight but consistent harmful effect. A hooked individual is unlikely to stop using even when given this evidence, as the product is addictive and gets stronger with network effects. Younger generations understood the harm better and had to avoid regular temptation to engage.
ataturk 9y ago
I look forward to the time when Facebook is just a bad memory, kind of like CB radios and every other money making scam that has been foisted on the gullible public. FB and social media in general has been absolute shit for our society.
dmitriid 9y ago
Does anyone take Bloomberg and their "predictions" seriously? I may be biased (I think, most of the predictions I've seen are in "Apple is suffering badly and will be suffering" context). But it looks like their "predictions" never ever hit their mark and only serve to drive traffic.
- mcphilip 9y ago
  This is just an op-ed
- kuceram 9y ago
  I think Bloomberg as any other online news try to come with catchy titles like this one. Apparently, it works. Look at how many comments dit it bring here on HN. :-)
lkerrekfjk 9y ago
I'm not sure what all these articles are complaining. Facebook is in the business of selling influence, just like Google or Twitter, that's how they make money. The product is people's attention span, just like TV or newspapers or any website or business financed by advertisement. So what is the problem here? the fact that anybody around the world can buy influence on Facebook? When you needed millions before to buy a spot on TV or newspapers? It's the black smith complaining about the automaker all over again.
- mistersquid 9y ago
  The issue is much more subtle than the blacksmith compaining about the automaker. A simplified version goes something like: Social media feeds are controlled by computer algorithms (AI) and the psychological, social, and political effects of social media are, at best, poorly understood and may, at worst, run counter to the long term goals of the humans building and using those systems. Also, because these systems are generally autonomous (complex-ish AI), systems which do run counter to the goals of society may be doing so without the intention of the systems' builders. This was covered here on HN a few days ago [0] and the featured video by Zeynep Tufecki is clear and accessible (23 mins). [1] Another compelling analysis into the unexpected negative effects of AI in social media (in the domain of YouTube children's videos) is James Bridle's "Something is wrong on the internet" which was featured on HN back in November of this year. [2] [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15891014 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15891014 [2] https://medium.com/@jamesbridle/something-is-wrong-on-the-internet-c39c471271d2 EDIT: word order
- watwut 9y ago
  One difference is that twitter does not make money. Facebook is an exception in that it did not just grew, but it knew how to be profitable. But other then that, I largely agree with you. The Facebook hate lately is weird.
tomgp 9y ago
Surprised that the article didn’t mention the EUs incoming data protection laws (GDPR) compliance with which is bound to be costly for Facebook as well as shifting power towards individuals more broadly.
- jpkeisala 9y ago
  How is GDPR affecting to Facebook as a service?
  - freehunter 9y ago
    Users will have to explicitly opt-in to advertising and tracking, and GDPR says you can't deny service to people who opt-out of these privacy protections. GDPR is pretty specific that you have to explain to users why you collect data, what you use it for, before you collect it, and then get their explicit opt-in to use it in that fashion.
    - tomgp 9y ago
      Yes, it would seem especially relevant to things like shadow profiles which are collections of data gathered and processed without consent. Further, it specifies ‘right to data portability’ and a ‘right to access’.
    - conductr 9y ago
      Only my opinion but, Facebook will find a way around this. An easy strategy will be to annoy the users enough that they opt-in. For example, want to post a pic? It's seamless if you are opted-in, but your not, so click through these 10 screens while we explain why you should opt-in. Every time you post a pic, you have to view 10 screens. Most people will just opt-in. They won't quit the service or deal with the annoyances, they'll just opt-in.
      - freehunter 9y ago
        You may be right. Facebook does a similar thing with ads, if you run a page/business, they heavily restrict who is going to see your posts. Unless, of course, you pay Facebook to display your posts as ads. Then everyone will see them... depending on how much you pay.
osrec 9y ago
Facebook offers some good functionality for keeping in touch etc, but it's littered with too much noise and too much influencing (to the point that it's unpleasant to use). If they fix that, they'll be okay. If not, there may be a mass exodus to something else once enough people get sick of it.
- baby 9y ago
  I have this theory that they've noticed that the platform is being used less and less, and is why we're getting so much ads mixed with our friends' posts. They're milking the cow before it dies. I feel bad writing that because I like facebook. But I use it less and less in favor of messenger, just because I see less and less about my friends in my news feed. Now their other acquisitions instagram and whatsapp seem pretty healthy, and VR is the future, so I wouldn't worry about the company as a whole.
  - monfrere 9y ago
    > I have this theory that they've noticed that the platform is being used less and less, and is why we're getting so much ads mixed with our friends' posts. They're milking the cow before it dies. Um, no. Facebook remains the most popular app in the United States with a comfortable lead. It's surpassed only by its own Whatsapp and Messenger globally. I think I read that in terms of time spent in an app, Facebook still beats Whatsapp, but I can't find the stat right now. Facebook just crossed 2 billion MAUs this year. Its advertising revenue grows at close to 50% a year. Obviously part of that is showing more ads per user, but it's also growth in app usage. I'd say the cow keeps sprouting new udders and they are feverishly trying to keep up with attaching the pumps.
    - macawfish 9y ago
      It's only a matter of time. When was the last time you thought about logging onto MySpace?
    - wils124 9y ago
      That doesn’t necessarily prove your point. It’s possible that advertising and install counts are lagging indicators, and that there are leading indicators like engagement showing trouble down the road. Anecdotally I’ve heard that this is the case.
iiiggglll 9y ago
> A third line of attack is likely to become important soon, perhaps as soon as next year. Former Facebook executive (yes, another dissident insider) Antonio Garcia-Martinez argued earlier this year that Facebook's ad targeting based on data collected from users is essentially unethical (and also that Facebook oversells its targeting ability). That last parenthetical about overselling points to a fourth line of attack: fraud. There's been a lot of rumbling for years that FB (and Google for that matter) are not doing enough to combat fake clicks / views / likes and are essentially ripping off advertisers. If everyone smells blood in the water all of a sudden due to these other issues heating up, there could be a lot of pressure on these companies to provide more transparency. That could bring their revenues way down.
camelCaseOfBeer 9y ago
"the obvious solution is to enforce Facebook's user policy..." Of forcing users to use their real names. "Which would alarm investors." Because it would cause their user base to shrink. This contention bothers me for a number of reasons, chief among which is that I don't think it's entirely accurate. Suppose FB is a delicious looking cornucopia, save the snark and humor me for the sake of my point, and right now there's a bunch of plastic fruit mixed in there. How then would it detract from the quality of the cornucopia to remove said fruit, other than making it appear less bountiful? There enlies the biggest problem I see with investment-driven business. The incentives of a business's own longevity oft conflict with the nearsightedness of the market. I feel like FB should be able to make a decision like that without being derided and sued by those whose perceived incentives conflict with that of the actual business's profitability. Fucking capitalism, mate, doesn't even seem to work for its own cronies.
rndmwlk 9y ago
So..their financials are great, and people are staying with the platform despite their propaganda issues. I'm not following this article.
elorant 9y ago
For me the biggest problem with Facebook is that you bust your ass to obtain an audience and then you can't reach them all because they change the algorithm and you have to pay extra. So you're paying initially to advertise and reach an audience and then you pay again to actually be allowed to say something to them. That's fucking pathetic. I mean come on Facebook, get your shit together. Either you'll make money from advertising or from promotions. You can't have it both ways. You're pissing off businesses, especially the smaller ones.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
johnmarcus 9y ago
TV also rots kids minds, making them complacent, in case you missed the memo circa 1960. And now look at all these old zombies running around.
Mc_Big_G 9y ago
I deleted my Facebook account a month or two ago and couldn't be happier with that decision. I hope everyone else does the same.
- spyspy 9y ago
  Self congratulations.
- jf 9y ago
  Congratulations! I did the same and it's dramatic how much my life improved as a result.
cabaalis 9y ago
As a mid-30s guy, I use Facebook primarily to share pictures and updates of my son and things we do together with my friends and family. Every. Single. Person. that I personally know despises the political crap, occasional venting of some personal problem, and news outrage fishing that comes across on there. I wish there was some way to "categorize" these posts, and to allow me to simply filter out what I don't want to see. As an example, there is a person I am friends with on there who I greatly admire and enjoy being friends with. But every time I see "Drumph" with a big red background, I sigh and scroll on. I don't need that in my life. Even if that makes me miss the odd post here and there, they are practically valueless anyway and seeing only the categories of updates that I want greatly outweighs that minuscule loss.
- Larrikin 9y ago
  If this is a true story, you would have taken the 20 seconds to look at the post and click that you want to see either less post or see no post from the person. But it is also possible you just wanted to complain about people complaining about Trump.
  - maldusiecle 9y ago
    That's a bad fix. There are lots of people I like interacting with, on a normal, non-political basis, that I can't get along with politically. In normal social situations, we get along fine, because it's not normal to constantly talk about divisive political issues. But on Facebook, it's become (for many people) a norm to post endless political memes. If I didn't want to hear anything about these people's lives, I wouldn't have friended them in the first place. I don't want to have to block all of their posts just so that I don't have to deal with their obnoxiously-expressed views. Ultimately, I think the norm of people posting political things on Facebook will go away--or at least, the only people being obnoxiously political on Facebook will be the same people who are obnoxiously political in real life. In the mean time, it's pretty annoying.
  - cabaalis 9y ago
    You missed a possibility: I wanted to complain about seeing things in Facebook that I do not want to see nor add any value to my life, which is exactly what I wrote in my post. It also happens to be the accurate selection of my intent.
jld 9y ago
Facebook jumped the shark when it switched from being a social network to being a news network.
fpisfun 9y ago
I hate Facebook with such a passion I really hope this is true.
aaavl2821 9y ago
FB's business model will eventually clash with its value proposition to users. The hedge fund and institutional investing world has fallen in love with facebook because it obviously is growing like crazy and scale and in a profitable manner, but also because it is viewed by many as a modern-day "value investment" (strange as that sounds), in the sense it has a powerful competitive moat and compounding returns on investment. but ultimately this thesis comes down to placing more paid ads in front of users. facebook will have to choose between cramming more and increasingly intrusive ads into its platform or dealing with a falling stock price. when it happens who knows, but it will at some point the regulatory risk is real but vague. out of curiousity, i wonder how many people thought the regulatory risk for microsoft in the late 90s was real
royalghost 9y ago
I uninstalled the facebook app from my mobile and only use once in a day for about 10-15 mins in the evening to get update on web. This has become very effective and I still keep update with some of my friends/relatives there. I think facebook has to do much larger research on the impact it is having on wider group of people and not just in western world in terms of politics, news, kids, humans behavior, etc. I have seen people spending hours and hours of unproductive time on facebook in very poor and developing countries where the same time could have been used for more useful stuff.
coldcode 9y ago
You wouldn't know it from their stock.
igorgue 9y ago
Facebook is a phishing website. There's gonna be a point in the future that people are gonna have to click 10 ads to see 1 friend update. And they'll be okay with it, just like people love The Super Bowl ads. I can see how people will say "What I like Facebook for is the ads!". They don't have to steal your credit card to make you buy stuff you'll do cause you like the ads!
734786710934 9y ago
2017 Was Bad for Bloomberg. 2018 Will Be Worse. All of these anti-Facebook articles should have disclaimers informing readers that they are in competition with Facebook and that Facebook is winning.
- kevinrpope 9y ago
  Genuinely curious - how do Facebook and Bloomberg compete?
  - tim333 9y ago
    For viewer time and attention I guess. As mentioned by another poster FB stock is up about 50% on the year, the earnings are up a similar amount. I'm skeptical 2017 was that bad for them.
anderspitman 9y ago
I removed the FB and Messenger apps from my phone about 2 weeks ago, and I've mostly managed to not open it on my desktop until after 6PM, which has drastically reduced my usage. What finally did it for me was trying to turn off notifications for messenger and realizing there is apparently no way to really do this. You can "mute" them for up to 24 hours but in 5 minutes I couldn't find a way to turn them off permanently. Whether it is possible or not is besides the point. It's an obvious feature and should be easily accessible. I decided to start actively avoiding software that doesn't respect my agency. I'm moving to open source where possible and paid products where not. I'm sick of software designed for engagement rather than user experience.
- nielsbot 9y ago
  You can use Messenger via the website. No need for Messenger.app...
  - jazoom 9y ago
    Facebook forces you to download the app to use Messenger when on an Android device (possibly others). A third party app is required to avoid that ridiculousness.
  - anderspitman 9y ago
    Honestly at this point it's half philosphical. I want to limit my interactions with companies that makes software like that.
- swozey 9y ago
  I use this and love it because I still communicate with a lot of people via Messenger. I'd delete my FB except I've got a ton of logins to other apps that use it, unfortunately. This blocks the news feed completely. https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/news-feed-eradicator-for/fjcldmjmjhkklehbacihaiopjklihlgg?hl=en https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/news-feed-eradicat...
  - anderspitman 9y ago
riston 9y ago
I stopped using FB because the feed was full of promoted posts, which made me really mad. And when your interested in finance/fintech/investment you get some really suspicious(most likely some scam) ads for promoting some X crypto-coins.
mk89 9y ago
I think that the main reason of Facebook's failure is that people need someone to listen to them. Facebook is just about sharing. People will hear you but you want someone to listen to you, eventually. So,this feeling of being heard can only satisfy you temporarily until a certain point, meaning until you realize you need something more. Facebook has failed iked at what their main purpose is: communication. Is there an alternative? Yeah, it's called life, listening, opportunities, etc. My 2 cents.
bprasanna 9y ago
Though many have mentioned in their posts and comments, following things made me weary of using FB: 1. More friendlier to businesses - after each N number of posts (where N sometimes < 5) we can see sponsored posts 2. Feeling of stalking - after searching few things in e-commerce sites (the exact same items getting listed in advertisements of sponsored feed). Though its through the Ad affiliation this happens, its totally creepy to see the "things" you searched for following you all over the social media. 3. Pushing for wider attention - though you haven't uploaded any picture of you, if in someone else's photo you get a part (even in a corner) all your friends will be notified! 4. Always-on-top - Their messenger app displays always-on-top floating bubble in mobile phones whenever there is a notification! Never ever look anywhere else! 5. Feeling of being their product - if the data we generate (not the moments we cherish) is their selling point for being an attractive platform, then there is no human part to it. We are just the products they sell! 6. Getting annoyed when an user doesn't login for a long time - sending an email and text message to say "if you have trouble logging please click this link" 7. Thank you animations other custom generated animations - All these animations are auto generated (may be mostly using AI), though in the end of the animation it says "Team FB", its more of a "AI @ FB". Why bother creating it, if it is auto generated!
nikolay 9y ago
I only use Facebook for work - promoting nonprofit events, but its utility is diminishing as there is a growing share of people who flee Facebook and it's now creating double work as I both need to support Facebook, and email and the format of work are different. Facebook made it especially hard when they removed the ability to invite the same people from an old event - now I have to go thru my over 1,000+ and select who I should invite to which event, which is total nonsense! For personal stuff, I still use Skype and Viber to keep up with friends and family.
zxia31 9y ago
The title and content is not matching. As a to-customer company, whether it is a good or bad year depends on how much they earn from their customers and how much they grow instead of how badly they are regulated or criticized. As long as people love using Facebook, every year is a good year. If the article describes that Facebook is losing their users either drastically or gradually, I would agree with the title saying that it was bad for Facebook.

anocendi 9y ago

Yes! It will definitely be worse for people who are not investing in FB stock.

dominotw 9y ago
2017 was bad for people who didn't buy facebook stock.

debacle 9y ago

FUD. Mostly unsubstantiated. Written like Facebook is a pre-IPO company not a publicly traded one.

robbiep 9y ago

Every technological revolution has profound effects on society, our brains and our ability to interact. Witness [0]. From the printing press to the internet, a change occurs, it affects our brain and the way we interact, and then eventually we begin to deal. The start of the vaccine(/backlash/response) to social media has begun. [0] https://xkcd.com/1227/ https://xkcd.com/1227/

zelos 9y ago
Not that I don't take the point, but presumably if mankind were in an endless decline into intellectual laziness, then each of the writers in that XKCD comic would be correct: they'd each be sampling a different segment of the same downward slope.
- CodeCube 9y ago
  I'm torn between wanting to agree with you ("Idiocracy is a documentary!", et al), and the cognitive dissonance of the greater and greater scientific and technological achievements we continue to create. Maybe there's an analogue at work here; like financial/wealth inequality, but for intellect (that feels incredibly elitist to 'verbalize').
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
- watwut 9y ago
  On average, we are much better educated then in 1871 and spend waaay more time learning. So I doubt we are in that endless decline into itellectual laziness.
bungie4 9y ago
I love xkcd, and the point the cartoon makes is not lost on me. However, one could also argue that the thoughts expressed more than a 100 years ago are still true today and have only accelerated still further. We are humans with finite limits on our capacities. While machines got faster, smarter and more flexible, we have not.

YCode 9y ago

> "ripping apart the social fabric." ... "literally changes your relationship with society, with each other ... God only knows what it's doing to our children's brains." I'm not saying he's entirely wrong, but a lot of what he's saying sounds very much like how TV was once described.

the-dude 9y ago
I remember there were no significant programs broadcasted during the day in NL ( ~1980 ). Now the average adult in the US watches 5 hours a day, 35 hours a week. Were they wrong?
- RyanZAG 9y ago
  They definitely weren't wrong. But at the same time, it shows that this isn't a good argument against Facebook, and that it likely means we'll be using Facebook more in future instead of less. Probably to our detriment, but definitely to Facebook's profit.
- sanyangkkun 9y ago
  I didn't believe you when I read this but...damn http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/average-american-watches-5-hours-tv-day-article-1.1711954 http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/average-american-watch...
- ams6110 9y ago
  TV has also changed dramatically in the last decade. With Netflix, Amazon Video, Youtube, etc (not strictly TV I guess but similar) it's possible to waste days on end binge-watching entire seasons of TV shows, in many cases ad-free. That was never possible in the past.
  - the-dude 9y ago
    Which is a nice hypothesis, but Nielsen says it isn't so : http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/average-american-watches-5-hours-tv-day-article-1.1711954 http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/average-american-watch...

matte_black 9y ago

2017 was bad? My FB stock doesn’t seem to think so.

greggarious 9y ago
Be sure to balance out your portfolio with some Uber and Blackberry
- sergiotapia 9y ago
  Also make sure you invest heavily in Enron.
  - trendia 9y ago
    And Tesla. Oh wait, too soon?
    - ryandrake 9y ago
      Don't forget to diversify with some bitcoins
      - ctrlaltdestroy 9y ago
        Diversify your digital currency with litecoin and other cryptocurrencies
      - matte_black 9y ago
        I actually bought litecoins the other day. I want to point out you can invest in something that you think will end up giving a good return even if you personally disagree with what the company or security does. I'd love to be wrong on my investment and see Facebook crumble and society free from it's harmful influences, but if that doesn't happen, at least the money I get from it's ever rising stock price will give me some comfort for a while. It's a win-win scenario, and pre-empts me from taking any stance in favor or against Facebook, which actually has some present value for me.

danschumann 9y ago

I still like that article "facebook is the junkfood of relationships". Such an apt metaphor.

l5870uoo9y 9y ago
Let us hope that facebook won't be allowed to have the same profound negative effects on human health as junk food have.
j_s 9y ago
Facebook Is the Junk Food of Socializing (2015) | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15782014 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15782014 two weeks ago. >kenning: I think cigarettes are a great comparison. I heard it a few years back. When popular, a huge amount of the population used cigarettes despite growing research showing that it had a slight but consistent harmful effect. A hooked individual is unlikely to stop using even when given this evidence, as the product is addictive and gets stronger with network effects. Younger generations understood the harm better and had to avoid regular temptation to engage.

ataturk 9y ago

I look forward to the time when Facebook is just a bad memory, kind of like CB radios and every other money making scam that has been foisted on the gullible public. FB and social media in general has been absolute shit for our society.

dmitriid 9y ago

Does anyone take Bloomberg and their "predictions" seriously? I may be biased (I think, most of the predictions I've seen are in "Apple is suffering badly and will be suffering" context). But it looks like their "predictions" never ever hit their mark and only serve to drive traffic.

mcphilip 9y ago
This is just an op-ed
kuceram 9y ago
I think Bloomberg as any other online news try to come with catchy titles like this one. Apparently, it works. Look at how many comments dit it bring here on HN. :-)

lkerrekfjk 9y ago

I'm not sure what all these articles are complaining. Facebook is in the business of selling influence, just like Google or Twitter, that's how they make money. The product is people's attention span, just like TV or newspapers or any website or business financed by advertisement. So what is the problem here? the fact that anybody around the world can buy influence on Facebook? When you needed millions before to buy a spot on TV or newspapers? It's the black smith complaining about the automaker all over again.

mistersquid 9y ago
The issue is much more subtle than the blacksmith compaining about the automaker. A simplified version goes something like: Social media feeds are controlled by computer algorithms (AI) and the psychological, social, and political effects of social media are, at best, poorly understood and may, at worst, run counter to the long term goals of the humans building and using those systems. Also, because these systems are generally autonomous (complex-ish AI), systems which do run counter to the goals of society may be doing so without the intention of the systems' builders. This was covered here on HN a few days ago [0] and the featured video by Zeynep Tufecki is clear and accessible (23 mins). [1] Another compelling analysis into the unexpected negative effects of AI in social media (in the domain of YouTube children's videos) is James Bridle's "Something is wrong on the internet" which was featured on HN back in November of this year. [2] [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15891014 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15891014 [2] https://medium.com/@jamesbridle/something-is-wrong-on-the-internet-c39c471271d2 EDIT: word order
watwut 9y ago
One difference is that twitter does not make money. Facebook is an exception in that it did not just grew, but it knew how to be profitable. But other then that, I largely agree with you. The Facebook hate lately is weird.

tomgp 9y ago

Surprised that the article didn’t mention the EUs incoming data protection laws (GDPR) compliance with which is bound to be costly for Facebook as well as shifting power towards individuals more broadly.

jpkeisala 9y ago
How is GDPR affecting to Facebook as a service?
- freehunter 9y ago
  Users will have to explicitly opt-in to advertising and tracking, and GDPR says you can't deny service to people who opt-out of these privacy protections. GDPR is pretty specific that you have to explain to users why you collect data, what you use it for, before you collect it, and then get their explicit opt-in to use it in that fashion.
  - tomgp 9y ago
    Yes, it would seem especially relevant to things like shadow profiles which are collections of data gathered and processed without consent. Further, it specifies ‘right to data portability’ and a ‘right to access’.
  - conductr 9y ago
    Only my opinion but, Facebook will find a way around this. An easy strategy will be to annoy the users enough that they opt-in. For example, want to post a pic? It's seamless if you are opted-in, but your not, so click through these 10 screens while we explain why you should opt-in. Every time you post a pic, you have to view 10 screens. Most people will just opt-in. They won't quit the service or deal with the annoyances, they'll just opt-in.
    - freehunter 9y ago
      You may be right. Facebook does a similar thing with ads, if you run a page/business, they heavily restrict who is going to see your posts. Unless, of course, you pay Facebook to display your posts as ads. Then everyone will see them... depending on how much you pay.

osrec 9y ago

Facebook offers some good functionality for keeping in touch etc, but it's littered with too much noise and too much influencing (to the point that it's unpleasant to use). If they fix that, they'll be okay. If not, there may be a mass exodus to something else once enough people get sick of it.

baby 9y ago
I have this theory that they've noticed that the platform is being used less and less, and is why we're getting so much ads mixed with our friends' posts. They're milking the cow before it dies. I feel bad writing that because I like facebook. But I use it less and less in favor of messenger, just because I see less and less about my friends in my news feed. Now their other acquisitions instagram and whatsapp seem pretty healthy, and VR is the future, so I wouldn't worry about the company as a whole.
- monfrere 9y ago
  > I have this theory that they've noticed that the platform is being used less and less, and is why we're getting so much ads mixed with our friends' posts. They're milking the cow before it dies. Um, no. Facebook remains the most popular app in the United States with a comfortable lead. It's surpassed only by its own Whatsapp and Messenger globally. I think I read that in terms of time spent in an app, Facebook still beats Whatsapp, but I can't find the stat right now. Facebook just crossed 2 billion MAUs this year. Its advertising revenue grows at close to 50% a year. Obviously part of that is showing more ads per user, but it's also growth in app usage. I'd say the cow keeps sprouting new udders and they are feverishly trying to keep up with attaching the pumps.
  - macawfish 9y ago
    It's only a matter of time. When was the last time you thought about logging onto MySpace?
  - wils124 9y ago
    That doesn’t necessarily prove your point. It’s possible that advertising and install counts are lagging indicators, and that there are leading indicators like engagement showing trouble down the road. Anecdotally I’ve heard that this is the case.

iiiggglll 9y ago

> A third line of attack is likely to become important soon, perhaps as soon as next year. Former Facebook executive (yes, another dissident insider) Antonio Garcia-Martinez argued earlier this year that Facebook's ad targeting based on data collected from users is essentially unethical (and also that Facebook oversells its targeting ability). That last parenthetical about overselling points to a fourth line of attack: fraud. There's been a lot of rumbling for years that FB (and Google for that matter) are not doing enough to combat fake clicks / views / likes and are essentially ripping off advertisers. If everyone smells blood in the water all of a sudden due to these other issues heating up, there could be a lot of pressure on these companies to provide more transparency. That could bring their revenues way down.

camelCaseOfBeer 9y ago

"the obvious solution is to enforce Facebook's user policy..." Of forcing users to use their real names. "Which would alarm investors." Because it would cause their user base to shrink. This contention bothers me for a number of reasons, chief among which is that I don't think it's entirely accurate. Suppose FB is a delicious looking cornucopia, save the snark and humor me for the sake of my point, and right now there's a bunch of plastic fruit mixed in there. How then would it detract from the quality of the cornucopia to remove said fruit, other than making it appear less bountiful? There enlies the biggest problem I see with investment-driven business. The incentives of a business's own longevity oft conflict with the nearsightedness of the market. I feel like FB should be able to make a decision like that without being derided and sued by those whose perceived incentives conflict with that of the actual business's profitability. Fucking capitalism, mate, doesn't even seem to work for its own cronies.

rndmwlk 9y ago

So..their financials are great, and people are staying with the platform despite their propaganda issues. I'm not following this article.

elorant 9y ago

For me the biggest problem with Facebook is that you bust your ass to obtain an audience and then you can't reach them all because they change the algorithm and you have to pay extra. So you're paying initially to advertise and reach an audience and then you pay again to actually be allowed to say something to them. That's fucking pathetic. I mean come on Facebook, get your shit together. Either you'll make money from advertising or from promotions. You can't have it both ways. You're pissing off businesses, especially the smaller ones.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

johnmarcus 9y ago

TV also rots kids minds, making them complacent, in case you missed the memo circa 1960. And now look at all these old zombies running around.

Mc_Big_G 9y ago

I deleted my Facebook account a month or two ago and couldn't be happier with that decision. I hope everyone else does the same.

spyspy 9y ago
Self congratulations.
jf 9y ago
Congratulations! I did the same and it's dramatic how much my life improved as a result.

cabaalis 9y ago

As a mid-30s guy, I use Facebook primarily to share pictures and updates of my son and things we do together with my friends and family. Every. Single. Person. that I personally know despises the political crap, occasional venting of some personal problem, and news outrage fishing that comes across on there. I wish there was some way to "categorize" these posts, and to allow me to simply filter out what I don't want to see. As an example, there is a person I am friends with on there who I greatly admire and enjoy being friends with. But every time I see "Drumph" with a big red background, I sigh and scroll on. I don't need that in my life. Even if that makes me miss the odd post here and there, they are practically valueless anyway and seeing only the categories of updates that I want greatly outweighs that minuscule loss.

Larrikin 9y ago
If this is a true story, you would have taken the 20 seconds to look at the post and click that you want to see either less post or see no post from the person. But it is also possible you just wanted to complain about people complaining about Trump.
- maldusiecle 9y ago
  That's a bad fix. There are lots of people I like interacting with, on a normal, non-political basis, that I can't get along with politically. In normal social situations, we get along fine, because it's not normal to constantly talk about divisive political issues. But on Facebook, it's become (for many people) a norm to post endless political memes. If I didn't want to hear anything about these people's lives, I wouldn't have friended them in the first place. I don't want to have to block all of their posts just so that I don't have to deal with their obnoxiously-expressed views. Ultimately, I think the norm of people posting political things on Facebook will go away--or at least, the only people being obnoxiously political on Facebook will be the same people who are obnoxiously political in real life. In the mean time, it's pretty annoying.
- cabaalis 9y ago
  You missed a possibility: I wanted to complain about seeing things in Facebook that I do not want to see nor add any value to my life, which is exactly what I wrote in my post. It also happens to be the accurate selection of my intent.

jld 9y ago

Facebook jumped the shark when it switched from being a social network to being a news network.

fpisfun 9y ago

I hate Facebook with such a passion I really hope this is true.

aaavl2821 9y ago

FB's business model will eventually clash with its value proposition to users. The hedge fund and institutional investing world has fallen in love with facebook because it obviously is growing like crazy and scale and in a profitable manner, but also because it is viewed by many as a modern-day "value investment" (strange as that sounds), in the sense it has a powerful competitive moat and compounding returns on investment. but ultimately this thesis comes down to placing more paid ads in front of users. facebook will have to choose between cramming more and increasingly intrusive ads into its platform or dealing with a falling stock price. when it happens who knows, but it will at some point the regulatory risk is real but vague. out of curiousity, i wonder how many people thought the regulatory risk for microsoft in the late 90s was real

royalghost 9y ago

I uninstalled the facebook app from my mobile and only use once in a day for about 10-15 mins in the evening to get update on web. This has become very effective and I still keep update with some of my friends/relatives there. I think facebook has to do much larger research on the impact it is having on wider group of people and not just in western world in terms of politics, news, kids, humans behavior, etc. I have seen people spending hours and hours of unproductive time on facebook in very poor and developing countries where the same time could have been used for more useful stuff.

coldcode 9y ago

You wouldn't know it from their stock.

igorgue 9y ago

Facebook is a phishing website. There's gonna be a point in the future that people are gonna have to click 10 ads to see 1 friend update. And they'll be okay with it, just like people love The Super Bowl ads. I can see how people will say "What I like Facebook for is the ads!". They don't have to steal your credit card to make you buy stuff you'll do cause you like the ads!

734786710934 9y ago

2017 Was Bad for Bloomberg. 2018 Will Be Worse. All of these anti-Facebook articles should have disclaimers informing readers that they are in competition with Facebook and that Facebook is winning.

kevinrpope 9y ago
Genuinely curious - how do Facebook and Bloomberg compete?
- tim333 9y ago
  For viewer time and attention I guess. As mentioned by another poster FB stock is up about 50% on the year, the earnings are up a similar amount. I'm skeptical 2017 was that bad for them.

anderspitman 9y ago

I removed the FB and Messenger apps from my phone about 2 weeks ago, and I've mostly managed to not open it on my desktop until after 6PM, which has drastically reduced my usage. What finally did it for me was trying to turn off notifications for messenger and realizing there is apparently no way to really do this. You can "mute" them for up to 24 hours but in 5 minutes I couldn't find a way to turn them off permanently. Whether it is possible or not is besides the point. It's an obvious feature and should be easily accessible. I decided to start actively avoiding software that doesn't respect my agency. I'm moving to open source where possible and paid products where not. I'm sick of software designed for engagement rather than user experience.

nielsbot 9y ago
You can use Messenger via the website. No need for Messenger.app...
- jazoom 9y ago
  Facebook forces you to download the app to use Messenger when on an Android device (possibly others). A third party app is required to avoid that ridiculousness.
- anderspitman 9y ago
  Honestly at this point it's half philosphical. I want to limit my interactions with companies that makes software like that.
swozey 9y ago
I use this and love it because I still communicate with a lot of people via Messenger. I'd delete my FB except I've got a ton of logins to other apps that use it, unfortunately. This blocks the news feed completely. https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/news-feed-eradicator-for/fjcldmjmjhkklehbacihaiopjklihlgg?hl=en https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/news-feed-eradicat...
- anderspitman 9y ago

riston 9y ago

I stopped using FB because the feed was full of promoted posts, which made me really mad. And when your interested in finance/fintech/investment you get some really suspicious(most likely some scam) ads for promoting some X crypto-coins.

mk89 9y ago

I think that the main reason of Facebook's failure is that people need someone to listen to them. Facebook is just about sharing. People will hear you but you want someone to listen to you, eventually. So,this feeling of being heard can only satisfy you temporarily until a certain point, meaning until you realize you need something more. Facebook has failed iked at what their main purpose is: communication. Is there an alternative? Yeah, it's called life, listening, opportunities, etc. My 2 cents.

bprasanna 9y ago

Though many have mentioned in their posts and comments, following things made me weary of using FB: 1. More friendlier to businesses - after each N number of posts (where N sometimes < 5) we can see sponsored posts 2. Feeling of stalking - after searching few things in e-commerce sites (the exact same items getting listed in advertisements of sponsored feed). Though its through the Ad affiliation this happens, its totally creepy to see the "things" you searched for following you all over the social media. 3. Pushing for wider attention - though you haven't uploaded any picture of you, if in someone else's photo you get a part (even in a corner) all your friends will be notified! 4. Always-on-top - Their messenger app displays always-on-top floating bubble in mobile phones whenever there is a notification! Never ever look anywhere else! 5. Feeling of being their product - if the data we generate (not the moments we cherish) is their selling point for being an attractive platform, then there is no human part to it. We are just the products they sell! 6. Getting annoyed when an user doesn't login for a long time - sending an email and text message to say "if you have trouble logging please click this link" 7. Thank you animations other custom generated animations - All these animations are auto generated (may be mostly using AI), though in the end of the animation it says "Team FB", its more of a "AI @ FB". Why bother creating it, if it is auto generated!

nikolay 9y ago

I only use Facebook for work - promoting nonprofit events, but its utility is diminishing as there is a growing share of people who flee Facebook and it's now creating double work as I both need to support Facebook, and email and the format of work are different. Facebook made it especially hard when they removed the ability to invite the same people from an old event - now I have to go thru my over 1,000+ and select who I should invite to which event, which is total nonsense! For personal stuff, I still use Skype and Viber to keep up with friends and family.

zxia31 9y ago

The title and content is not matching. As a to-customer company, whether it is a good or bad year depends on how much they earn from their customers and how much they grow instead of how badly they are regulated or criticized. As long as people love using Facebook, every year is a good year. If the article describes that Facebook is losing their users either drastically or gradually, I would agree with the title saying that it was bad for Facebook.