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China is a well run country, but most countries seem that way with 5%+ economic growth YoY. In reality, it’s slowly becoming a prison of 1.3 billion people tha

by Top19 9y ago

China is a well run country, but most countries seem that way with 5%+ economic growth YoY. In reality, it’s slowly becoming a prison of 1.3 billion people that is gently closing its maws on them. Life is good, growth is great, but whenever the next crisis comes, which it will, the government will not be replaced like in Democracy but actively fight back, with technology developed by the best American companies. From there, they will probably close down and self-seal their economy like the Soviet Union did with some success, and embark on a period of profound killing as a means of control.

Aloha 9y ago
I see no basis in reality for this claim. China is more open now, than it has been at any point since 1949 - and it continues to liberalize things - just very very slowly.
- selectodude 9y ago
  I think most would agree if was more open under Hu than it is now under Xi. They’re moving in the wrong direction.
  - pas 9y ago
    Could you give examples? What was better under Hu?
- yeukhon 9y ago
  "Liberalize things" can you cite any, because as someone who is familiar with China, Xi's regime is less liberal than ever. The country does welcome foreign investors, but that's about it (and that comes with a lot of restrictions).
  - vkou 9y ago
    > Xi's regime is less liberal than ever. How so?
    - eric-hu 9y ago
      The HK bookstore owners disappearing come to mind.
      - tensitors 9y ago
        And they were released and allowed to tell their story. If this incident happened any time before Xi, would the outcome have been the same?
        yeukhon 9y ago
        Why registered a new account to comment on this? You can't be serious right? They told a story based on a script. Sorry, I cannot trust someone who just created a new account to make a comment like this.
        paradite 9y ago
        And they were released and allowed to tell their story. If this incident happened any time before Xi, would the outcome have been the same?
        yeukhon 9y ago
        They were released because the mainland government was forced to explain why the owners were arrested (but a lot of people believe they were kidnapped). In particular, one of the owners is a British citizen. While pro-mainland argued that the owners were arrested lawfully, the truth is not. > It was widely believed that the booksellers were detained in mainland China, and in February 2016 Guangdong provincial authorities confirmed that all five had been taken into custody in relation to an old traffic case involving Gui Minhai. How could all five be detained in relation to an old traffic case? Most importantly, there was no evidence of these owners leaving HK, so how did they end up in China? All five of them? Plotting against mainland? Why would a traffic case warrant this kind of arrest? Let's face it, if this was a local traffic incident in U.S., there would be no manhunt at this scale.
  - tensitors 9y ago
    > Xi's regime is less liberal than ever. Is it? Can you give an example of where Hu and Jiang were more liberal than Xi?
    - ttflee 9y ago
      Watch the 60 Minutes interview of Jiang by Mike Wallace.
  - bad_user 9y ago
    "Liberalize things" is an euphemism for "the ruling party reigns supreme and can fuck you over on a whim, but at least the people aren't going hungry like in the former Soviet Union".
- nailer 9y ago
  Corruption is still endemic, as is natural in dictatorships. It's punished very publically when it's revealed, but that's likely to be the tip of the iceberg.
- cromwellian 9y ago
  Really? VPNs banned, Skype banned (recently), and in Xinjiang province, forced installation of backdoors. China has the largest surveillance state of any country internally now under Xi, things have gotten far more locked down since he became President.
thisthatandthe 9y ago
China is NOT well run. Life is NOT good. The growth is FAKE 7% every year. There was a very recent event happening in Beijing kindergarten regarding sexual abuses....and the authorities CLAMPED DOWN ON THE MEDIA and DENIED IT TOOK PLACE. http://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/rumors-11292017123013.html http://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/rumors-11292017123013.... Why do you think the rich and the intellectuals are fleeing the country? Polluted air, polluted water, polluted food, hidden poverty, censorship, police state, the list goes on and on....
- ztratar 9y ago
  Those sure are a lot of sensationalist claims. Can you provide evidence for your "FAKE" 7% YoY growth statistic? I know plenty of traders & Americans doing business in China who'd disagree with you. I understand why people would flee -- the pollution is insane. But still, by all measures I've see the economic growth is quite real.
- client4 9y ago
  I've spent the better part of my last few months in China, Beijing and Shanghai specifically. China just speed-ran the industrial revolution at 10x the size of the US and is about to surpass us in the next era of energy, renewable energy. Beijing pollution is still bad. But it's 1/2 of where it was at 4 years ago, and will likely be non-existent in the next 10 years.
  - bduerst 9y ago
    Yeah, I'm with you on this one. Most westerners' impressions of China are 10 years behind. There's always been a ton of, "Just wait until the sky falls China won't be prepared" doom saying but as a controlled economy they've become the largest producer of green energy in the world, and are racing to produce the first general A.I.
- aylmao 9y ago
  It's finals season in college so of course I just wrote an essay about this whole thing. I have 3 points to make; 1. I think people need to think of this in the historical context. China has always been closed to the West. The only time they really "opened up" it was because they were forced to after the opium wars, and they lost much of their sovereignty to European spheres of influence that ultimately wrecked them economically. Being closed has historically worked for them and not being so hasn't, so is it such a surprise they want to remain closed? 2. Economically it makes tonnes of sense to do this, and to be honest, I believe that's the main reason they're doing it (more so than to stop criticism's of the party or try to hide stuff). They're beating the West at their own game. Their country has so many people they don't need international markets; China has more people than Europe and North America combined! France, for example, will likely never get it's own Facebook, Uber or Amazon because Facebook, Uber and Amazon are free to operate there, and as long as these big players hang around (which they will, indefinitely) there will be little space for a competing product to develop. This means France, - Will have tech startups, but never with "Silicon Valley" level size or growth. - These services in France will be highly dependant on USA policy - Most importantly, there will be less incentive for certain types of engineering to grow in France. Like, will France ever have a hub for self-driving car research if there's no French Uber/Lyft/etc? Will it ever have as many self-driving car specialists? If there are engineers interested in this, they will most likely come to the US and work here. China is protecting itself from brain/idea/high-skilled-job-drain by ensuring local alternatives grow within its borders. It wants to be a tech hub, and this is really the best if not only way to do it when it comes to software tech. 3. Stability. We might call it censorship and control, and we might be right, but especially after the Russian involvement in the USA's latest presidential elections and how easy it was for them to reach their audience online [1], do they not have reason to be paranoid? It's in the interest of Russia to have Trump as president, and, tbh, to split the American people and have in-fighting. And apparently it's not hard for them to make this happen in this connected world. Propaganda can come from both within, and outside. I'm not trying to say that this is the best approach or that everyone should do this, but there's definitely more to it than "China is evil and wants to brainwash people isolating them from the outside world". Information can definitely get in and out of China; I think the historical, economic and defensive reasons make more sense in explaining China's approach. They're just being protectionist. [1]: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/30/facebook-russia-fake-accounts-126-million https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/30/facebook-...
forapurpose 9y ago
> China is a well run country While I generally agree with your point, I don't know if I accept this premise. Would citizens in Tibet agree, for example? Hong Kong?
- richardknop 9y ago
  Depends on who you ask. Lots of mainlanders live in HK now. I'd assume most young HK-ers are still against China but if nothing changes slowly the HK will be assimilated and mainstream opinion will align more with mainland Chinese as time goes on.
  - forapurpose 9y ago
    > but if nothing changes slowly the HK will be assimilated and mainstream opinion will align more with mainland Chinese as time goes on With due respect, that's a prediction without a basis, not evidence or an argument.
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
    - richardknop 9y ago
      It's actually my opinion. I'm not claiming it is a provable fact. It is just what I think might happen in next 50 years let's say. HK has been independent for a long time and been given back to China quite recently so I think 100 years from now if it stays as part of China it would be much less independent. For example, take a look at Kaliningrad which is completely Russian now. Or other parts of Europe which were assimilated when taken over by bigger nations/states.
      - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
        It’s very possible. Especially if the HKers move away. Funny, the doom and gloom predicted for 1997 did come eventually, just 20 years later.
      - 9y ago
shubhamjain 9y ago
Next few decades would be interesting. China definitely had the upper hand in industrialisation with little to no opposition to its policies and infrastructure infrastructure projects. It still has it. But, it seems they have firm belief in tightening their rein. India, on the other hand, while at least a decade behind, is a less restrictive system by design. If it takes few steps right, India could be a less frightening alternative for future investments.
- cannonedhamster 9y ago
  Heck if India could fix it's power issues and network peering issues they'd catch up pretty darned quick.
- sremani 9y ago
  India is a fragmented country and Modi has to win another term impressively to get any kind of "true" reforms. Even if he succeeds, its the South and West leading the economy and Hindi heartland playing catch-up in spite of being political and population center. India will develop unevenly Gujarat, Maharashtra, TN, AP will forge ahead. The interior will have lesser impressive growth. As long as India periphery is culturally diverse from Hindi core, India is not going to get anywhere. It will grow and medium pace and will make it to middle income in 2040, but nothing stellar.
  - dgaaaaaaaaaa 9y ago
    > As long as India periphery is culturally diverse from Hindi core, India is not going to get anywhere. Could you elaborate on why that might be?
    - likelynew 9y ago
      That was a racist comment. He/She was referring to Hindi belt, which contains UP, Bihar, MP, the capital Delhi and likes. Many of the regions are poorest in India. This is commonly referred to as core of India.
legulere 9y ago
The Chinese government is directly drawing its legitimacy from the betterment of the Chinese population and this seems to be also the government’s own understanding of the situation.
luvbb 9y ago
> it’s slowly becoming a prison of 1.3 billion people that is gently closing its maws on them. China has a long and established history of replacing governments that are unfair to their people. It's just, why would you overthrow a government bringing in so much economic growth. Once that growth slows down their government will get away with less civil rights violations.
bobjordan 9y ago
Go on with your science fiction plot. "In reality" it's not like that at all. Have you ever been to China?
hnarn 9y ago
> China is a well run country, but most countries seem that way with 5%+ economic growth YoY. What most people don't seem to understand is that China's growth is largely based on the fact that it started off, very recently, from such a low baseline. Big percentage increases are a lot easier when you go from nothing, that doesn't mean you'd want to be a country that recently started from nothing.

by Top19 9y ago

Aloha 9y ago

I see no basis in reality for this claim. China is more open now, than it has been at any point since 1949 - and it continues to liberalize things - just very very slowly.

selectodude 9y ago
I think most would agree if was more open under Hu than it is now under Xi. They’re moving in the wrong direction.
- pas 9y ago
  Could you give examples? What was better under Hu?
yeukhon 9y ago
"Liberalize things" can you cite any, because as someone who is familiar with China, Xi's regime is less liberal than ever. The country does welcome foreign investors, but that's about it (and that comes with a lot of restrictions).
- vkou 9y ago
  > Xi's regime is less liberal than ever. How so?
  - eric-hu 9y ago
    The HK bookstore owners disappearing come to mind.
    - tensitors 9y ago
      And they were released and allowed to tell their story. If this incident happened any time before Xi, would the outcome have been the same?
      - yeukhon 9y ago
        Why registered a new account to comment on this? You can't be serious right? They told a story based on a script. Sorry, I cannot trust someone who just created a new account to make a comment like this.
        paradite 9y ago
        And they were released and allowed to tell their story. If this incident happened any time before Xi, would the outcome have been the same?
        yeukhon 9y ago
        They were released because the mainland government was forced to explain why the owners were arrested (but a lot of people believe they were kidnapped). In particular, one of the owners is a British citizen. While pro-mainland argued that the owners were arrested lawfully, the truth is not. > It was widely believed that the booksellers were detained in mainland China, and in February 2016 Guangdong provincial authorities confirmed that all five had been taken into custody in relation to an old traffic case involving Gui Minhai. How could all five be detained in relation to an old traffic case? Most importantly, there was no evidence of these owners leaving HK, so how did they end up in China? All five of them? Plotting against mainland? Why would a traffic case warrant this kind of arrest? Let's face it, if this was a local traffic incident in U.S., there would be no manhunt at this scale.
- tensitors 9y ago
  > Xi's regime is less liberal than ever. Is it? Can you give an example of where Hu and Jiang were more liberal than Xi?
  - ttflee 9y ago
    Watch the 60 Minutes interview of Jiang by Mike Wallace.
- bad_user 9y ago
  "Liberalize things" is an euphemism for "the ruling party reigns supreme and can fuck you over on a whim, but at least the people aren't going hungry like in the former Soviet Union".
nailer 9y ago
Corruption is still endemic, as is natural in dictatorships. It's punished very publically when it's revealed, but that's likely to be the tip of the iceberg.
cromwellian 9y ago
Really? VPNs banned, Skype banned (recently), and in Xinjiang province, forced installation of backdoors. China has the largest surveillance state of any country internally now under Xi, things have gotten far more locked down since he became President.

thisthatandthe 9y ago

China is NOT well run. Life is NOT good. The growth is FAKE 7% every year. There was a very recent event happening in Beijing kindergarten regarding sexual abuses....and the authorities CLAMPED DOWN ON THE MEDIA and DENIED IT TOOK PLACE. http://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/rumors-11292017123013.html http://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/rumors-11292017123013.... Why do you think the rich and the intellectuals are fleeing the country? Polluted air, polluted water, polluted food, hidden poverty, censorship, police state, the list goes on and on....

ztratar 9y ago
Those sure are a lot of sensationalist claims. Can you provide evidence for your "FAKE" 7% YoY growth statistic? I know plenty of traders & Americans doing business in China who'd disagree with you. I understand why people would flee -- the pollution is insane. But still, by all measures I've see the economic growth is quite real.
client4 9y ago
I've spent the better part of my last few months in China, Beijing and Shanghai specifically. China just speed-ran the industrial revolution at 10x the size of the US and is about to surpass us in the next era of energy, renewable energy. Beijing pollution is still bad. But it's 1/2 of where it was at 4 years ago, and will likely be non-existent in the next 10 years.
- bduerst 9y ago
  Yeah, I'm with you on this one. Most westerners' impressions of China are 10 years behind. There's always been a ton of, "Just wait until the sky falls China won't be prepared" doom saying but as a controlled economy they've become the largest producer of green energy in the world, and are racing to produce the first general A.I.
aylmao 9y ago
It's finals season in college so of course I just wrote an essay about this whole thing. I have 3 points to make; 1. I think people need to think of this in the historical context. China has always been closed to the West. The only time they really "opened up" it was because they were forced to after the opium wars, and they lost much of their sovereignty to European spheres of influence that ultimately wrecked them economically. Being closed has historically worked for them and not being so hasn't, so is it such a surprise they want to remain closed? 2. Economically it makes tonnes of sense to do this, and to be honest, I believe that's the main reason they're doing it (more so than to stop criticism's of the party or try to hide stuff). They're beating the West at their own game. Their country has so many people they don't need international markets; China has more people than Europe and North America combined! France, for example, will likely never get it's own Facebook, Uber or Amazon because Facebook, Uber and Amazon are free to operate there, and as long as these big players hang around (which they will, indefinitely) there will be little space for a competing product to develop. This means France, - Will have tech startups, but never with "Silicon Valley" level size or growth. - These services in France will be highly dependant on USA policy - Most importantly, there will be less incentive for certain types of engineering to grow in France. Like, will France ever have a hub for self-driving car research if there's no French Uber/Lyft/etc? Will it ever have as many self-driving car specialists? If there are engineers interested in this, they will most likely come to the US and work here. China is protecting itself from brain/idea/high-skilled-job-drain by ensuring local alternatives grow within its borders. It wants to be a tech hub, and this is really the best if not only way to do it when it comes to software tech. 3. Stability. We might call it censorship and control, and we might be right, but especially after the Russian involvement in the USA's latest presidential elections and how easy it was for them to reach their audience online [1], do they not have reason to be paranoid? It's in the interest of Russia to have Trump as president, and, tbh, to split the American people and have in-fighting. And apparently it's not hard for them to make this happen in this connected world. Propaganda can come from both within, and outside. I'm not trying to say that this is the best approach or that everyone should do this, but there's definitely more to it than "China is evil and wants to brainwash people isolating them from the outside world". Information can definitely get in and out of China; I think the historical, economic and defensive reasons make more sense in explaining China's approach. They're just being protectionist. [1]: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/30/facebook-russia-fake-accounts-126-million https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/30/facebook-...

forapurpose 9y ago

> China is a well run country While I generally agree with your point, I don't know if I accept this premise. Would citizens in Tibet agree, for example? Hong Kong?

richardknop 9y ago
Depends on who you ask. Lots of mainlanders live in HK now. I'd assume most young HK-ers are still against China but if nothing changes slowly the HK will be assimilated and mainstream opinion will align more with mainland Chinese as time goes on.
- forapurpose 9y ago
  > but if nothing changes slowly the HK will be assimilated and mainstream opinion will align more with mainland Chinese as time goes on With due respect, that's a prediction without a basis, not evidence or an argument.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - richardknop 9y ago
    It's actually my opinion. I'm not claiming it is a provable fact. It is just what I think might happen in next 50 years let's say. HK has been independent for a long time and been given back to China quite recently so I think 100 years from now if it stays as part of China it would be much less independent. For example, take a look at Kaliningrad which is completely Russian now. Or other parts of Europe which were assimilated when taken over by bigger nations/states.
    - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
      It’s very possible. Especially if the HKers move away. Funny, the doom and gloom predicted for 1997 did come eventually, just 20 years later.
    - 9y ago

shubhamjain 9y ago

Next few decades would be interesting. China definitely had the upper hand in industrialisation with little to no opposition to its policies and infrastructure infrastructure projects. It still has it. But, it seems they have firm belief in tightening their rein. India, on the other hand, while at least a decade behind, is a less restrictive system by design. If it takes few steps right, India could be a less frightening alternative for future investments.

cannonedhamster 9y ago
Heck if India could fix it's power issues and network peering issues they'd catch up pretty darned quick.
sremani 9y ago
India is a fragmented country and Modi has to win another term impressively to get any kind of "true" reforms. Even if he succeeds, its the South and West leading the economy and Hindi heartland playing catch-up in spite of being political and population center. India will develop unevenly Gujarat, Maharashtra, TN, AP will forge ahead. The interior will have lesser impressive growth. As long as India periphery is culturally diverse from Hindi core, India is not going to get anywhere. It will grow and medium pace and will make it to middle income in 2040, but nothing stellar.
- dgaaaaaaaaaa 9y ago
  > As long as India periphery is culturally diverse from Hindi core, India is not going to get anywhere. Could you elaborate on why that might be?
  - likelynew 9y ago
    That was a racist comment. He/She was referring to Hindi belt, which contains UP, Bihar, MP, the capital Delhi and likes. Many of the regions are poorest in India. This is commonly referred to as core of India.

legulere 9y ago

The Chinese government is directly drawing its legitimacy from the betterment of the Chinese population and this seems to be also the government’s own understanding of the situation.

luvbb 9y ago

> it’s slowly becoming a prison of 1.3 billion people that is gently closing its maws on them. China has a long and established history of replacing governments that are unfair to their people. It's just, why would you overthrow a government bringing in so much economic growth. Once that growth slows down their government will get away with less civil rights violations.

bobjordan 9y ago

Go on with your science fiction plot. "In reality" it's not like that at all. Have you ever been to China?

hnarn 9y ago

> China is a well run country, but most countries seem that way with 5%+ economic growth YoY. What most people don't seem to understand is that China's growth is largely based on the fact that it started off, very recently, from such a low baseline. Big percentage increases are a lot easier when you go from nothing, that doesn't mean you'd want to be a country that recently started from nothing.