7 ms·

I'd love to know how far away from the next crash people think we are. And where they think is a safe place to put money when that happens.

KozmoNau7 9y ago
It will happen before 2020, the question is when exactly it will hit. My money is on late 2018 or early 2019. What to do before then? Don't have any money in US stocks. Diversify both geographically and sector-wise, cash out, be ready to invest when stocks crash through the floor, to ride the wave when they inevitably rise again. The real trick is spotting who's going to rise again and who's going to be left behind. Tech stocks are volatile by nature, invest in renewable energy and related sectors. We're going to need solar and wind power in the future, and batteries. Lots of batteries. Then, as we near battery saturation, there is going to be big money in recycling all those depleted batteries.
- anon1253 9y ago
  people often seem to forget that mining the stuff that makes the batteries is still a thing. That's a whole different ballgame, and however you want to look at: it's finite. Couple the fact that the raw materials often come from less-than-stable geographical regions, it might become Oil 2.0 (with similar wars fought over it).
  - KozmoNau7 9y ago
    Oh yeah, you should get into mining now, while it's still big and profitable, because that's a definite time-limited thing.
- sillysaurus3 9y ago
  Why will it happen before 2020?
  - KozmoNau7 9y ago
    I'll admit it's my personal estimate, looking at last decade's constant up-up-up of US stocks, especially the tech sector, and (as mentioned in the article) the widening gap between the value of U.S. household assets and GDP growth. It's unsustainable growth, and I'm afraid the crash is going to happen sooner rather than later. Will it be as bad as in 2008? I don't know. But it's going to hurt (except if you're wealthy enough to invest heavily right after and ride the wave back up again).
    - anon1253 9y ago
      I'm not an economist. But here is my arm-chair philosophizing about what is happening. To combat the economic crisis we started printing a lot of money. This had two effects: the interest on savings went way down, and the loans became very cheap. Having money = bad, having debts = good, at least for those who can carry the burden. This was done in order to incentivize investing, thus growing the economy. Obviously, that worked: property price and valuations went way up. But those are driven by the future-promise of debt repayment. The moment we stop printing the money, people will get wise and try to sell off those assets again. Because then having money is cheaper than having debt. So now there's a bit of problem: we can't keep printing money faster than the economy grows due to hyperinflation, but we can't /really/ stop doing so either because people will sell off their debts in order to cash in on cheap investments. This to me, seems problematic.
      - sutterbomb 9y ago
        What rate do you consider hyperinflation? Are we in it now? What measure are you using? Afaik we’ve been running under 2% inflation for quite some time.
        anon1253 9y ago
        I think we're hiding the rate of inflation in overvaluation of property and stocks, because money is cheap.
        9y ago
- worldsayshi 9y ago
  > invest in renewable energy and related sectors Isn't the problem in investing in that that there's really no way to know which particular business will come out on top here since there really isn't any large barriers of entry?
  - KozmoNau7 9y ago
    Yes, and that's the trick (plus luck).
  - vasco 9y ago
    That's what hedging is for, you bet that for example, in the overall energy landscape, renewals are going to go up more than "legacy" energy companies, but still protect yourself from overall sector moves.
    - worldsayshi 9y ago
      Ah, thanks for that explanation! I wasn't aware of what the hedge part meant. But now I could connect it to an idea.
  - heurist 9y ago
    If you don't follow the industry there are indexes and funds available for this stock. All you need to do is find the right ones and you'll be mostly insured from any individual company failure. There's a lot of money in oil that will be captured by the 'free' energy of renewables. Renewables are just now becoming more cost effective than oil. Oil will be around for a long time but renewables are poised to overtake it in consumer and commercial energy. Might take a few decades but it's inevitable that a vastly more efficient energy source becomes the market leader. Also, governments across the world are putting in place regulations to build and retrofit buildings to reduce emissions. That's not just energy, it's the actual building materials and techniques. That's a lot of government mandated money about to be put into green infrastructure. Again, this is over decades so the ramp time will seem slow to us humans but now is the time to get in IMO. However, I am an amateur investor and I've definitely been wrong before...
- matwood 9y ago
  > It will happen before 2020, the question is when exactly it will hit. What will be the catalyst? Just because we haven't had a recession in awhile is not enough. Corporate profits are up, consumer spending is up, and even though everyone on here thinks the numbers are lies, wages are starting to go up. > My money is on late 2018 or early 2019. So you have already either shorted the market or bought put options out in 2019?
  - ataturk 9y ago
    The advice you're replying to is awful, do yourself a favor and don't follow it. Why does everyone think buying puts or shorting stocks is as easy as going long? It's not. It's an even faster way of losing money! Go try it sometime--or even just simulate it. People who say these things are clueless.
  - KozmoNau7 9y ago
    Market overvaluation and public debt are sky-high, it's an unsustainable situation, we either reign it in by controlled means (not gonna happen), or it's going to crash. I'm not a huge investor, but I am preparing by reducing the proportion of US stocks in my portfolio.
    - pault 9y ago
      How is market overvaluation calculated? And is public debt an absolute measure or is it relative to another indicator?
  - magoghm 9y ago
    "There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world." -- John Maynard Keynes
- tonyedgecombe 9y ago
  It will happen before 2020 Have you really put your own money on that? We're going to need solar and wind power in the future, and batteries. Lots of batteries. Do you really think you have some big insight here that the rest of the investment community hasn't thought about?
  - KozmoNau7 9y ago
    I'm not claiming to be an expert.
snappyTertle 9y ago
I think the bubble is the US dollar. Currently our debts are being serviced by issuing more debt! Safe places IMO are deflationary assets (gold, and to a much more risky extent, bitcoin...I know this will start a flame war lol). Another option is foreign assets in countries that are not holding onto a lot of US debt. I'm not an oracle, so I can't predict timing, although I do think it will happen relatively soon in the next 1-3 years.
- sheeshkebab 9y ago
  Don’t forget how raising taxes in 90s wiped out all deficits and large chunk of debt in early 2000’. The worry back then was then how US would lose leverage in the world if all its debts were gone. Not saying that current level of debt is any good, there are just multiple levels to that story.
  - topmonk 9y ago
    Raising taxes didn't do it. It was the horrendous hype generated by the dot com bubble. Having a net surplus was just a blip on the radar which quickly became unattainable as soon as the resulting crash.
    - lsniddy 9y ago
      coupled with Alan Greenspan's promotion of home ownership which eventually led to the subprime collapse
    - sheeshkebab 9y ago
      Capital gains tax was raised in late 80’s and 90’s.
      - topmonk 9y ago
        I'm not denying that. I just don't think the explanation for why the deficit was eliminated was because of that.
- 9y ago
matte_black 9y ago
It will not happen before 2020, this market could easily run for another decade.
- isolli 9y ago
  If you're so sure you could make guaranteed money by selling put options expiring in 2020. Or are you not so sure...?
- jmnicolas 9y ago
  Back in 2000 in a library I saw a book by 2 economists that had Nobel Prize. The second part of the title was something like "Are you ready for the next 20 years of uninterrupted growth ?". Then one year later we had the .com crash :-)
  - matte_black 9y ago
    The good thing is we’ll be able to look back in 5-10 years or so at this post and see if I was right. See you in 2022.
StavrosK 9y ago
Does anyone know of any low-cost, Euro-priced market ETFs for divesting from the USD? I guess this might fit the bill: https://www.vanguard.ch/privateinvestors/indv/loadPDF?country=ch&docId=2297 https://www.vanguard.ch/privateinvestors/indv/loadPDF?countr...
yequalsx 9y ago
There's an economics adage that is appropriate to keep in mind: Economists have predicted 15 of the last 10 crashes. Just before a crash the best place to keep your money is in cash. Those who are liquid after a crash can clean up by investing at that time.
sdljfslkjfdsj 9y ago
Historically the 2 term presidential cycle where an incumbent is elected has led to a recession within 6-18 months 100% of the time. I guess this time could be different & a recession doesn't imply a crash but that's an interesting data point.
tboyd47 9y ago
I think it's going to happen. When, I have no idea. I invest in crypto because it's one of those rare things that I know more about than the average investor, unlike the stock market, which I know nothing about and will never know enough about to invest in confidently.
sdljfslkjfdsj 9y ago
The best place to put your money is typically where nobody else wants to put theirs. IMO nobody wants cash today. They want anything except cash no matter how risky. Stocks at highest valuations ever, BTC (unregulated), emerging market high yield, bonds with negative yields (because they think it will price appreciate), art, cars, volatility selling (fixed gains & unlimited losses), etc. The least desired asset class right now is cash. Compare that to 2009-2011 or so & cash was the prized asset class which underperformed going forward. Aside from the least desired, the cheapest asset class in the world today is volatility.

KozmoNau7 9y ago

It will happen before 2020, the question is when exactly it will hit. My money is on late 2018 or early 2019. What to do before then? Don't have any money in US stocks. Diversify both geographically and sector-wise, cash out, be ready to invest when stocks crash through the floor, to ride the wave when they inevitably rise again. The real trick is spotting who's going to rise again and who's going to be left behind. Tech stocks are volatile by nature, invest in renewable energy and related sectors. We're going to need solar and wind power in the future, and batteries. Lots of batteries. Then, as we near battery saturation, there is going to be big money in recycling all those depleted batteries.

anon1253 9y ago
people often seem to forget that mining the stuff that makes the batteries is still a thing. That's a whole different ballgame, and however you want to look at: it's finite. Couple the fact that the raw materials often come from less-than-stable geographical regions, it might become Oil 2.0 (with similar wars fought over it).
- KozmoNau7 9y ago
  Oh yeah, you should get into mining now, while it's still big and profitable, because that's a definite time-limited thing.
sillysaurus3 9y ago
Why will it happen before 2020?
- KozmoNau7 9y ago
  I'll admit it's my personal estimate, looking at last decade's constant up-up-up of US stocks, especially the tech sector, and (as mentioned in the article) the widening gap between the value of U.S. household assets and GDP growth. It's unsustainable growth, and I'm afraid the crash is going to happen sooner rather than later. Will it be as bad as in 2008? I don't know. But it's going to hurt (except if you're wealthy enough to invest heavily right after and ride the wave back up again).
  - anon1253 9y ago
    I'm not an economist. But here is my arm-chair philosophizing about what is happening. To combat the economic crisis we started printing a lot of money. This had two effects: the interest on savings went way down, and the loans became very cheap. Having money = bad, having debts = good, at least for those who can carry the burden. This was done in order to incentivize investing, thus growing the economy. Obviously, that worked: property price and valuations went way up. But those are driven by the future-promise of debt repayment. The moment we stop printing the money, people will get wise and try to sell off those assets again. Because then having money is cheaper than having debt. So now there's a bit of problem: we can't keep printing money faster than the economy grows due to hyperinflation, but we can't /really/ stop doing so either because people will sell off their debts in order to cash in on cheap investments. This to me, seems problematic.
    - sutterbomb 9y ago
      What rate do you consider hyperinflation? Are we in it now? What measure are you using? Afaik we’ve been running under 2% inflation for quite some time.
      - anon1253 9y ago
        I think we're hiding the rate of inflation in overvaluation of property and stocks, because money is cheap.
      - 9y ago
worldsayshi 9y ago
> invest in renewable energy and related sectors Isn't the problem in investing in that that there's really no way to know which particular business will come out on top here since there really isn't any large barriers of entry?
- KozmoNau7 9y ago
  Yes, and that's the trick (plus luck).
- vasco 9y ago
  That's what hedging is for, you bet that for example, in the overall energy landscape, renewals are going to go up more than "legacy" energy companies, but still protect yourself from overall sector moves.
  - worldsayshi 9y ago
    Ah, thanks for that explanation! I wasn't aware of what the hedge part meant. But now I could connect it to an idea.
- heurist 9y ago
  If you don't follow the industry there are indexes and funds available for this stock. All you need to do is find the right ones and you'll be mostly insured from any individual company failure. There's a lot of money in oil that will be captured by the 'free' energy of renewables. Renewables are just now becoming more cost effective than oil. Oil will be around for a long time but renewables are poised to overtake it in consumer and commercial energy. Might take a few decades but it's inevitable that a vastly more efficient energy source becomes the market leader. Also, governments across the world are putting in place regulations to build and retrofit buildings to reduce emissions. That's not just energy, it's the actual building materials and techniques. That's a lot of government mandated money about to be put into green infrastructure. Again, this is over decades so the ramp time will seem slow to us humans but now is the time to get in IMO. However, I am an amateur investor and I've definitely been wrong before...
matwood 9y ago
> It will happen before 2020, the question is when exactly it will hit. What will be the catalyst? Just because we haven't had a recession in awhile is not enough. Corporate profits are up, consumer spending is up, and even though everyone on here thinks the numbers are lies, wages are starting to go up. > My money is on late 2018 or early 2019. So you have already either shorted the market or bought put options out in 2019?
- ataturk 9y ago
  The advice you're replying to is awful, do yourself a favor and don't follow it. Why does everyone think buying puts or shorting stocks is as easy as going long? It's not. It's an even faster way of losing money! Go try it sometime--or even just simulate it. People who say these things are clueless.
- KozmoNau7 9y ago
  Market overvaluation and public debt are sky-high, it's an unsustainable situation, we either reign it in by controlled means (not gonna happen), or it's going to crash. I'm not a huge investor, but I am preparing by reducing the proportion of US stocks in my portfolio.
  - pault 9y ago
    How is market overvaluation calculated? And is public debt an absolute measure or is it relative to another indicator?
- magoghm 9y ago
  "There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world." -- John Maynard Keynes
tonyedgecombe 9y ago
It will happen before 2020 Have you really put your own money on that? We're going to need solar and wind power in the future, and batteries. Lots of batteries. Do you really think you have some big insight here that the rest of the investment community hasn't thought about?
- KozmoNau7 9y ago
  I'm not claiming to be an expert.

snappyTertle 9y ago

I think the bubble is the US dollar. Currently our debts are being serviced by issuing more debt! Safe places IMO are deflationary assets (gold, and to a much more risky extent, bitcoin...I know this will start a flame war lol). Another option is foreign assets in countries that are not holding onto a lot of US debt. I'm not an oracle, so I can't predict timing, although I do think it will happen relatively soon in the next 1-3 years.

sheeshkebab 9y ago
Don’t forget how raising taxes in 90s wiped out all deficits and large chunk of debt in early 2000’. The worry back then was then how US would lose leverage in the world if all its debts were gone. Not saying that current level of debt is any good, there are just multiple levels to that story.
- topmonk 9y ago
  Raising taxes didn't do it. It was the horrendous hype generated by the dot com bubble. Having a net surplus was just a blip on the radar which quickly became unattainable as soon as the resulting crash.
  - lsniddy 9y ago
    coupled with Alan Greenspan's promotion of home ownership which eventually led to the subprime collapse
  - sheeshkebab 9y ago
    Capital gains tax was raised in late 80’s and 90’s.
    - topmonk 9y ago
      I'm not denying that. I just don't think the explanation for why the deficit was eliminated was because of that.
9y ago

matte_black 9y ago

It will not happen before 2020, this market could easily run for another decade.

isolli 9y ago
If you're so sure you could make guaranteed money by selling put options expiring in 2020. Or are you not so sure...?
jmnicolas 9y ago
Back in 2000 in a library I saw a book by 2 economists that had Nobel Prize. The second part of the title was something like "Are you ready for the next 20 years of uninterrupted growth ?". Then one year later we had the .com crash :-)
- matte_black 9y ago
  The good thing is we’ll be able to look back in 5-10 years or so at this post and see if I was right. See you in 2022.

StavrosK 9y ago

Does anyone know of any low-cost, Euro-priced market ETFs for divesting from the USD? I guess this might fit the bill: https://www.vanguard.ch/privateinvestors/indv/loadPDF?country=ch&docId=2297 https://www.vanguard.ch/privateinvestors/indv/loadPDF?countr...

yequalsx 9y ago

There's an economics adage that is appropriate to keep in mind: Economists have predicted 15 of the last 10 crashes. Just before a crash the best place to keep your money is in cash. Those who are liquid after a crash can clean up by investing at that time.

sdljfslkjfdsj 9y ago

Historically the 2 term presidential cycle where an incumbent is elected has led to a recession within 6-18 months 100% of the time. I guess this time could be different & a recession doesn't imply a crash but that's an interesting data point.

tboyd47 9y ago

I think it's going to happen. When, I have no idea. I invest in crypto because it's one of those rare things that I know more about than the average investor, unlike the stock market, which I know nothing about and will never know enough about to invest in confidently.

sdljfslkjfdsj 9y ago

The best place to put your money is typically where nobody else wants to put theirs. IMO nobody wants cash today. They want anything except cash no matter how risky. Stocks at highest valuations ever, BTC (unregulated), emerging market high yield, bonds with negative yields (because they think it will price appreciate), art, cars, volatility selling (fixed gains & unlimited losses), etc. The least desired asset class right now is cash. Compare that to 2009-2011 or so & cash was the prized asset class which underperformed going forward. Aside from the least desired, the cheapest asset class in the world today is volatility.