7 ms·

I see Kurzweil as a sadder figure: someone who achieved a lot as an inventor, and whose overblown prognostications about the future come (largely) from overesti

I see Kurzweil as a sadder figure: someone who achieved a lot as an inventor, and whose overblown prognostications about the future come (largely) from overestimating how quickly everyone else can improve technologies and adopt them. It's sort of a revenge of the mediocrity principle. If you are exceptional, assuming that other people are basically like you can produce disastrously skewed mental models of the world. I'm reminded of the complaint that startups are disproportionately geared toward solving the problems of highly educated, able-bodied adults who have more money than spare time. "I'm like this, my friends are like this, and by the principle of mediocrity we're not unusual... therefore, iOS could use another food delivery app." You need to measure, rather than guess, whether you are unusual relative to large numbers of other people. On top of that Kurzweil appears to have some good old fashioned self-delusion about death: believing he can "bring back" his beloved dead father as software, the life extension supplements, etc. (I don't believe in souls or uncomputable quantum woo in brains. I have no problem in principle with "brain uploads." I think that the obstacles in practice are extremely formidable and typically underestimated by people who have spent more time with computers than with biology.)

pishpash 9y ago
Same with Wolfram, I suppose.
- shobith 9y ago
  How's Wolfram similar? what thoughts of his are "overblown"? I'm curious because I don't see the parallels between the two, while you seem to imply some obviousness.
  - WorldMaker 9y ago
    There's at least somewhat a sense that Wolfram's rabbit holing down Conway's Game/Cellular Automata and calling it "A New Kind of Math" was relatively overblown. Certainly Wolfram has his ego in play/blinders on about certain subjects, and in that way you can easily draw parallels between Wolfram and Kurzweil, depending of course on what your own personal take/opinion on their various pet projects happens to be.
    - shobith 9y ago
      I may not agree with Wolfram and his theories (or his ego), but I don't think we can equate him to Kurzweil, Woflram definitely has produced a body of work to substantiate his "rabbit holing" and he's created a business around some of his ideas. However, I agree that the "New kind of Science" was overblown, but definitely not in same league as Kurzweil[1]. There are a few other scientists who have explored the area of cellular automata[2] [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcbbr8ZhoFs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcbbr8ZhoFs [2]: There's least one I can think of immediately: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-41285-6 https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-41285-6
      - WorldMaker 9y ago
        I'm certainly not equating them, but Kurzweil has had successes in his projects, too. He's also not the only one exploring his areas of interest. KurzweilAI.net has been a link/news aggregator for many years and essentially an (if not "the") HN for his interest areas. Kurweil also seems to be a somewhat active investor in his ideas (more so than the solo researcher that Wolfram often seems to be), which depending on your point of view is at least equally business minded as Wolfram. As I stated, whether or not you find the two comparable or not has as much to do with personal opinion as anything else. I personally find them both extremely interesting gentlemen that have done very interesting things, but that I will also take a large grain of salt with respect to many of their projects. Whether or not the amount of the salt is the same or the number of projects I need it for is the same ("in the same league" even) doesn't stop it from being a sometimes useful comparison.
    - natch 9y ago
      s/Math/Science/ but yeah.
  - melq 9y ago
    Doesn't get more overblown than the way he talks about his 'A New Kind of Science' ideas IMO.
  - georgeecollins 9y ago
    As others have pointed out, "A New Kind of Science" is a an example of taking existing ideas as your own (probably not maliciously) and making overblown claims for their significance. It's like he's so accomplished no one edits him or checks his work.
  - nimish 9y ago
    Wolfram has always been overblown about mathematica and his own pet projects around cellular automata.
ronilan 9y ago
> I see Kurzweil as a sadder figure But why? He is just 69. Gets up in the morning goes to work for Google. He's a director, got a team, plays with this reply thing on gmail. Couple of years down the road, maybe he gets board? He got credentials. Facebook hires him. Maybe can help with reply thing on messenger or something. He can float around. It's the valley. A decade at Twitter, Two as a VC. No rush. Dude got time, man. No need to pity. He's cool.
pmoriarty 9y ago
"I have no problem in principle with 'brain uploads.'" My main objection is a philosophical one. I just don't believe that whatever is in the machine after such an "upload" will be me -- no matter how accurately is mirrors my brain. I'll still be in my own body, and don't want to kill myself for the sake of the life of the one inside the machine. Nor do I think my life will continue inside the machine. Whatever/whoever is inside the machine at that point will no longer be me, and will continue their own life without me -- even if they think exactly like me and have exactly the memories I had at the point of upload, etc. At best, such an upload is more akin to giving birth to a separate entity. People who think they are extending their own lives by doing this are deluding themselves.
- aqsheehy 9y ago
  What if you replaced your brain piecemeal, each replacement component interacting with your analog brain until there's none left. Still not you?
  - pmoriarty 9y ago
    Yes, this would basically be death by brain damage -- even if I was somehow fooled in to thinking that I was still me at the point of death. Little by little I'd be made in to someone else. That said, it could be argued that this sort of thing happens all the time anyway. I'm not the person I once was. In a sense, the old me died and was replaced by the new me. Yet I still consider the new me to be myself. Or maybe not. The child me is dead, though echoes of him may live on in me. I guess what disturbs me about a mechanical/cybernetic brain replacement is that it would feel to me too much like some technological virus or disease taking over my mind and body -- even if it gave me some super powers or preserved me in some way. I guess some injured people or people who are dying anyway might not have much of a choice.. but as long as I still have a choice I think I'd choose to remain organic. It's not an easy choice, however, and I would have no problem use various prosthesis like glasses.. or enhancing my memory with external devices like smartphones/PDA's/computers. It's just too invasive for that to be made a part of me... at least if it starts to make decisions. But probably children born in to a world where that sort of thing was commonplace probably wouldn't have much of a problem with it.

pishpash 9y ago

Same with Wolfram, I suppose.

shobith 9y ago
How's Wolfram similar? what thoughts of his are "overblown"? I'm curious because I don't see the parallels between the two, while you seem to imply some obviousness.
- WorldMaker 9y ago
  There's at least somewhat a sense that Wolfram's rabbit holing down Conway's Game/Cellular Automata and calling it "A New Kind of Math" was relatively overblown. Certainly Wolfram has his ego in play/blinders on about certain subjects, and in that way you can easily draw parallels between Wolfram and Kurzweil, depending of course on what your own personal take/opinion on their various pet projects happens to be.
  - shobith 9y ago
    I may not agree with Wolfram and his theories (or his ego), but I don't think we can equate him to Kurzweil, Woflram definitely has produced a body of work to substantiate his "rabbit holing" and he's created a business around some of his ideas. However, I agree that the "New kind of Science" was overblown, but definitely not in same league as Kurzweil[1]. There are a few other scientists who have explored the area of cellular automata[2] [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcbbr8ZhoFs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcbbr8ZhoFs [2]: There's least one I can think of immediately: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-41285-6 https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-41285-6
    - WorldMaker 9y ago
      I'm certainly not equating them, but Kurzweil has had successes in his projects, too. He's also not the only one exploring his areas of interest. KurzweilAI.net has been a link/news aggregator for many years and essentially an (if not "the") HN for his interest areas. Kurweil also seems to be a somewhat active investor in his ideas (more so than the solo researcher that Wolfram often seems to be), which depending on your point of view is at least equally business minded as Wolfram. As I stated, whether or not you find the two comparable or not has as much to do with personal opinion as anything else. I personally find them both extremely interesting gentlemen that have done very interesting things, but that I will also take a large grain of salt with respect to many of their projects. Whether or not the amount of the salt is the same or the number of projects I need it for is the same ("in the same league" even) doesn't stop it from being a sometimes useful comparison.
  - natch 9y ago
    s/Math/Science/ but yeah.
- melq 9y ago
  Doesn't get more overblown than the way he talks about his 'A New Kind of Science' ideas IMO.
- georgeecollins 9y ago
  As others have pointed out, "A New Kind of Science" is a an example of taking existing ideas as your own (probably not maliciously) and making overblown claims for their significance. It's like he's so accomplished no one edits him or checks his work.
- nimish 9y ago
  Wolfram has always been overblown about mathematica and his own pet projects around cellular automata.

ronilan 9y ago

> I see Kurzweil as a sadder figure But why? He is just 69. Gets up in the morning goes to work for Google. He's a director, got a team, plays with this reply thing on gmail. Couple of years down the road, maybe he gets board? He got credentials. Facebook hires him. Maybe can help with reply thing on messenger or something. He can float around. It's the valley. A decade at Twitter, Two as a VC. No rush. Dude got time, man. No need to pity. He's cool.

pmoriarty 9y ago

"I have no problem in principle with 'brain uploads.'" My main objection is a philosophical one. I just don't believe that whatever is in the machine after such an "upload" will be me -- no matter how accurately is mirrors my brain. I'll still be in my own body, and don't want to kill myself for the sake of the life of the one inside the machine. Nor do I think my life will continue inside the machine. Whatever/whoever is inside the machine at that point will no longer be me, and will continue their own life without me -- even if they think exactly like me and have exactly the memories I had at the point of upload, etc. At best, such an upload is more akin to giving birth to a separate entity. People who think they are extending their own lives by doing this are deluding themselves.

aqsheehy 9y ago
What if you replaced your brain piecemeal, each replacement component interacting with your analog brain until there's none left. Still not you?
- pmoriarty 9y ago
  Yes, this would basically be death by brain damage -- even if I was somehow fooled in to thinking that I was still me at the point of death. Little by little I'd be made in to someone else. That said, it could be argued that this sort of thing happens all the time anyway. I'm not the person I once was. In a sense, the old me died and was replaced by the new me. Yet I still consider the new me to be myself. Or maybe not. The child me is dead, though echoes of him may live on in me. I guess what disturbs me about a mechanical/cybernetic brain replacement is that it would feel to me too much like some technological virus or disease taking over my mind and body -- even if it gave me some super powers or preserved me in some way. I guess some injured people or people who are dying anyway might not have much of a choice.. but as long as I still have a choice I think I'd choose to remain organic. It's not an easy choice, however, and I would have no problem use various prosthesis like glasses.. or enhancing my memory with external devices like smartphones/PDA's/computers. It's just too invasive for that to be made a part of me... at least if it starts to make decisions. But probably children born in to a world where that sort of thing was commonplace probably wouldn't have much of a problem with it.