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This post goes over science and research, which to me is a consequence to other, "big picture", areas of the Chinese growth. Areas such as economy, geopolitcs a

This post goes over science and research, which to me is a consequence to other, "big picture", areas of the Chinese growth. Areas such as economy, geopolitcs and finances. China is no longer a contender - It's the true looming power of the East. And depending on how internal politics play out, it will be interesting to see where exactly China stands in as little as 10-20 years in the future. One thing that strikes me about China is their attitude towards foreign politics - They still want the world to consider them as a "developing country". Sure, it's a gigantic country, both in land and population - There are still many challenges to overcome, but this is now a country with enormous cash reserves, who own a significant lump of US debt, and making truly gigantic strides on all levels of society.

sillysaurus3 9y ago
China is no longer a contender - It's the true looming power of the East. And depending on how internal politics play out, it will be interesting to see where exactly China stands in as little as 10-20 years in the future. Exactly that: https://i.imgur.com/kjF57Sy.png https://i.imgur.com/kjF57Sy.png https://i.imgur.com/OkOQWkj.png https://i.imgur.com/OkOQWkj.png
- raverbashing 9y ago
  Seems Japan did not lose only one decade, but 2 decades so far And by the way things go, it seems they froze in time. Nobody moves the country forward Japan’s tech cannibalism saps Abenomics - https://www.ft.com/content/238c993c-427d-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1 https://www.ft.com/content/238c993c-427d-11e6-9b66-0712b3873... might need to Google it Some other day I saw people complaining that in Japan they still use a mechanical mouse (not an optical one, the older ones)
  - toomuchtodo 9y ago
    What if the Japanese don’t want to move forward and are happy to live out the remainder of their lifespans as is? Progress without purpose is not progress. GDP over quality of life is like measuring your success of curing HIV in a human using bleach. You’ve succeeded, but for what?
    - erikpukinskis 9y ago
      It’s sad people are downvoting this. Maybe they disagree but this is absolutely a question all of us must ask. There are side effects to growth. We lose cultural practices, we lose languages, we lose neighborhoods, we lose species, we lose entire ecologies. I actually really appreciate the conservative (well...Republican) argument that sometimes it’s worth it. Maybe we should burn some fossil fuels to help developing countries build economically, bring down mortality, be able to support larger investments, etc, in exchange for some extinctions, and the loss of some indigenous culture. I’m open to that. But you also have to be open to the fact that sometimes it’s not worth it, and ask what does it look like if we were to try to preserve our cultural and biological heritage. This is a conservative ideal too. And when I think about how to do that, I am drawn back to Japan over and over who solved many of these problems hundreds or thousands of years ago. Japan has already asked the question: “should we destroy all of our native ecologies and cultures in order to fuel industrial growth?” And they are one of the few countries who has taken a stance on that issue, and succeeded at preserving things America seems destined to continually destroy in its relentless path towards an industrial monoculture. We can’t write that off as provincialism or regressiveness. We (in the U.S.) have something to learn here, and the advantage is not entirely ours.
      - nradov 9y ago
        I don't think that's an accurate description of what's actually been happening in Japan. They have literally paved over ecologically sensitive sites and built bridges to nowhere in a misguided, counterproductive attempt to stimulate economic growth. For details see "Dogs and Demons: Tales from the Dark Side of Japan" by Alex Kerr. https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780809039432 https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780809039432
        deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
      - sexydefinesher 9y ago
        You do realise that any economic benefit from burning fossil fuel would be outweighed by rising sea levels, right?
- Houshalter 9y ago
  GDP per capita is a more interesting metric: https://i.imgur.com/nLnvfPq.png https://i.imgur.com/nLnvfPq.png All your graph shows is that China has a huge population.
matchsetpoint 9y ago
I have lived in Shenzhen for many years, traveled to tons of cities in China, and recently am back to silicon valley. From what I can tell on the ground, China is going to be in decline for the next 10-20 years. (I have a good hunch most people that comment favorabily on China here, have never been) - Myth: China is developed. Truth: Start in Shanghai Huangpu (very rich neighborhood, in a very rich city). Take a subway a few stops in any direction. When you come out, you are surrounded by dilapidated communist blocks and electric bikees. Take another ride a few more stops, you are surrounded in villages that are right out of middle ages (shoddy huts with shared toilets). This is the same for any of the rich city in China. 90% of people in China live in middle ages. 9.99999% of people live in 1950s. 0.00001% of people live very richly. - Myth: Chinese citizens saves and are rich. Truth: most rich people have left China already. The remaining middle class ($1000/month, many of my Chinese friends) are able to buy into the massive inflated housing with savings from parents. The savings, borrowed money from relatives, credit card debts are now stuck in real estate. My friends all have (fake) gucci, LV, brand name products. They take out loans to afford conspicuous lifestyle. These things are all for show. Some of them are paying all of their salaries into the mortgage payment every month! - Myth: Chinese economy is doing fine. Truth: Many of my banker friends (expats and locals) know that it's all propped up by debts that will collapse any day now. There's a massive inflation happening everywhere, from food to housing to foreign products. It's harder to harder to get money out of China (I'm helping some with bitcoins). Most of them aren't optimistic. - Myth: China is leading in green-tech, research, innovation, etc. Truth: tons of copy, chabuduo (good enough), cheating in classes and in business, pollution in Shanghai and Shenzhen is still cancer causing, most smart people want to go abroad.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  Whenever I hear someone claim china is leading on the environment, I know they’ve never been there before. Your analysis is harsh, however: there are still rich people left who haven’t migrated. China is all developed, developing, and undeveloped at the same time...it is a huge place after all. There is plenty of trouble on the Chinese eceonomy to work through, and the propaganda is incredulous, but they have made a lot of progress that isn’t going to go away even when the inevitable crash comes. China could go through a decade or two of Japanese-style stagnation if they refuse to reform and allow the market to work out bad economic blood with crashes and failures. They could also go the other way, focus on real growth and start avoiding white elephants. Let’s see.

sillysaurus3 9y ago

China is no longer a contender - It's the true looming power of the East. And depending on how internal politics play out, it will be interesting to see where exactly China stands in as little as 10-20 years in the future. Exactly that: https://i.imgur.com/kjF57Sy.png https://i.imgur.com/kjF57Sy.png https://i.imgur.com/OkOQWkj.png https://i.imgur.com/OkOQWkj.png

raverbashing 9y ago
Seems Japan did not lose only one decade, but 2 decades so far And by the way things go, it seems they froze in time. Nobody moves the country forward Japan’s tech cannibalism saps Abenomics - https://www.ft.com/content/238c993c-427d-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1 https://www.ft.com/content/238c993c-427d-11e6-9b66-0712b3873... might need to Google it Some other day I saw people complaining that in Japan they still use a mechanical mouse (not an optical one, the older ones)
- toomuchtodo 9y ago
  What if the Japanese don’t want to move forward and are happy to live out the remainder of their lifespans as is? Progress without purpose is not progress. GDP over quality of life is like measuring your success of curing HIV in a human using bleach. You’ve succeeded, but for what?
  - erikpukinskis 9y ago
    It’s sad people are downvoting this. Maybe they disagree but this is absolutely a question all of us must ask. There are side effects to growth. We lose cultural practices, we lose languages, we lose neighborhoods, we lose species, we lose entire ecologies. I actually really appreciate the conservative (well...Republican) argument that sometimes it’s worth it. Maybe we should burn some fossil fuels to help developing countries build economically, bring down mortality, be able to support larger investments, etc, in exchange for some extinctions, and the loss of some indigenous culture. I’m open to that. But you also have to be open to the fact that sometimes it’s not worth it, and ask what does it look like if we were to try to preserve our cultural and biological heritage. This is a conservative ideal too. And when I think about how to do that, I am drawn back to Japan over and over who solved many of these problems hundreds or thousands of years ago. Japan has already asked the question: “should we destroy all of our native ecologies and cultures in order to fuel industrial growth?” And they are one of the few countries who has taken a stance on that issue, and succeeded at preserving things America seems destined to continually destroy in its relentless path towards an industrial monoculture. We can’t write that off as provincialism or regressiveness. We (in the U.S.) have something to learn here, and the advantage is not entirely ours.
    - nradov 9y ago
      I don't think that's an accurate description of what's actually been happening in Japan. They have literally paved over ecologically sensitive sites and built bridges to nowhere in a misguided, counterproductive attempt to stimulate economic growth. For details see "Dogs and Demons: Tales from the Dark Side of Japan" by Alex Kerr. https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780809039432 https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780809039432
      - deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
    - sexydefinesher 9y ago
      You do realise that any economic benefit from burning fossil fuel would be outweighed by rising sea levels, right?
Houshalter 9y ago
GDP per capita is a more interesting metric: https://i.imgur.com/nLnvfPq.png https://i.imgur.com/nLnvfPq.png All your graph shows is that China has a huge population.

matchsetpoint 9y ago

I have lived in Shenzhen for many years, traveled to tons of cities in China, and recently am back to silicon valley. From what I can tell on the ground, China is going to be in decline for the next 10-20 years. (I have a good hunch most people that comment favorabily on China here, have never been) - Myth: China is developed. Truth: Start in Shanghai Huangpu (very rich neighborhood, in a very rich city). Take a subway a few stops in any direction. When you come out, you are surrounded by dilapidated communist blocks and electric bikees. Take another ride a few more stops, you are surrounded in villages that are right out of middle ages (shoddy huts with shared toilets). This is the same for any of the rich city in China. 90% of people in China live in middle ages. 9.99999% of people live in 1950s. 0.00001% of people live very richly. - Myth: Chinese citizens saves and are rich. Truth: most rich people have left China already. The remaining middle class ($1000/month, many of my Chinese friends) are able to buy into the massive inflated housing with savings from parents. The savings, borrowed money from relatives, credit card debts are now stuck in real estate. My friends all have (fake) gucci, LV, brand name products. They take out loans to afford conspicuous lifestyle. These things are all for show. Some of them are paying all of their salaries into the mortgage payment every month! - Myth: Chinese economy is doing fine. Truth: Many of my banker friends (expats and locals) know that it's all propped up by debts that will collapse any day now. There's a massive inflation happening everywhere, from food to housing to foreign products. It's harder to harder to get money out of China (I'm helping some with bitcoins). Most of them aren't optimistic. - Myth: China is leading in green-tech, research, innovation, etc. Truth: tons of copy, chabuduo (good enough), cheating in classes and in business, pollution in Shanghai and Shenzhen is still cancer causing, most smart people want to go abroad.

seanmcdirmid 9y ago
Whenever I hear someone claim china is leading on the environment, I know they’ve never been there before. Your analysis is harsh, however: there are still rich people left who haven’t migrated. China is all developed, developing, and undeveloped at the same time...it is a huge place after all. There is plenty of trouble on the Chinese eceonomy to work through, and the propaganda is incredulous, but they have made a lot of progress that isn’t going to go away even when the inevitable crash comes. China could go through a decade or two of Japanese-style stagnation if they refuse to reform and allow the market to work out bad economic blood with crashes and failures. They could also go the other way, focus on real growth and start avoiding white elephants. Let’s see.