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Tech Stocks Roar Again in Faint Echo of 2000
- ShabbosGoy 9y agoReal wages have not risen in over 40 years.
- temp20160423 9y agoReal wages in silicon valley for the hot industry at the moment have definitely gone up the past 40 years.
- readhn 9y agothe end is near..? ..is everyone in yet?
- refurb 9y agoThe coming correction is going to be a big one! Just look at what the stock market has done since the election. The DJIA went from 18,000 to almost 24,000. That's a 33% increase in a year! The good news is that if you've been in the market for a while, you're way up anyways. The 10-20% correction will come giving you an opportunity to buy low again. And then in a decade we'll repeat everything again!
- ronnier 9y agoIf you are so certain, are you putting your money towards this and betting on your assumptions being correct?
- refurb 9y agoCertain there will be a market cycle? Of course? Certain when it will happen? Hell no! I'm fully in the market with zero intention of trying to time anything. It will go down and back up. That much is certain. I'm ready to ride it out!
- AznHisoka 9y agoAnyone can predict there will be an inevitable downturn in the future. In fact most people think there will be one for sure. it could be 10,20, or 100 years down the line. But if you arent predicting when, your prediction isnt very credible.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago> But if you arent predicting when, your prediction isnt very credible. It is the exact opposite: if you are actually predicting "when", then your prediction isn't very credible. Perhaps you meant useful instead? Anyways, all we can do is watch external forces. When will the Chinese asset bubble pop? When will the fed raise interest rates? If those things happen, will that take other markets down with it?
- Analemma_ 9y agoI would say it’s both (or neither): if you are always predicting disaster, then your predictions are neither useful nor credible, since you will be wrong most of the time as the long-term trend of the market is upward.
- seanmcdirmid 9y agoThe chance of a crash sometime in the future is 100%. That is credible. Those predictions are completely credible for what most people take as credible, they just aren’t very useful. Markets that rise just because of inflation and population growth aren’t necessarily healthy in the long term. The current great consistent performance of index funds suggests something is up.
- WalterBright 9y agoThere is no cycle. It's a chaotic system, which is why "technical analysis" is a farce for fools. (A cycle implies a predictable periodicity, and there is none.)
- lr4444lr 9y agoIndeed. Economists have accurately predicted 9 of the last 7 recessions. </s>
- charlesdm 9y agoThe coming correction is going to be a big one! <> 10-20% correction will come giving you an opportunity to buy low again Honestly, I wouldn't consider a 20% correction big, if you're up 33% in the last 12 months.
- AznHisoka 9y agoPast results dont predict the future. The current boom since 2011 could easily extend for another decade, just like the boom from 1980-1990. If you felt there was going to be a correction then just because "its due" you would have missed the huge boom from 1990-1999.
- refurb 9y agoThis is very true and why I'm staying in the market. The only reason why I think we're due for a correction is that PE ratios and the like seem out of wack. But you are right, this could keep going for a long time and maybe the economy would grow enough to start to justify the stock prices.
- empath75 9y agoOh I expect the correction will be way lower than 18000
- cletus 9y agoI roll my eyes as these tortured attempts to draw parallels that aren't even superficially similar. 2000 was an IPO bubble of companies that had no revenue, no prospect of revenue and no business plan. Analysts went out of their way to justify valuations by inventing new metrics like revenue-to-price multipliers. What's different today is that the likes of Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon are money-making machines on a scale probably not matched since at least the era of Standard Oil, the 19th century railroad tycoons and other industrialists like Carnegie. I mean, Apple is trading at a P/E of less than 19 and it has a market cap of $842B. That is mind-boggling but not at all outrageous. In 2000 the tech IPO bubble burst. In 2007 the subprime disaster came crashing down. It is absolutely certain there will be another downturn in the future but at this point I have no idea what the next trigger will be. My best guess is something to do with China. This could take many forms. Some think that the Chinese economy is a house of cards. There has clearly been a flight of capital from China. Who knows where this ends? Also, Chinese money in particular has been flooding into Western real estate markets. This too may come to a head. Or it could be something to do with North Korea or even Iran. Or populists movements may drive Western governments to crack down on what they see as excessive power by the large tech companies, particularly in the EU. Or a constitutional crisis instigated by our current lunatic-in-chief. Whatever the case I really don't see any significant parallels to 2000.
- TAForObvReasons 9y agoAnti-trust or a heavy wave of regulations, like what happened to Microsoft decades ago, is a significant risk. Given the proceedings of the Mueller investigation, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibilities for new laws governing internet advertising.
- tschwimmer 9y agoI don't think it's likely. After crakacing down on Arthur Andersen caused 100,000 people to lose their jobs some people think the Justice Department and Congress are intentionally not going after corporate malfeasance, or at least not as strongly.[1] [1]: http://www.npr.org/2017/07/11/536642560/is-the-justice-department-shying-away-from-to-prosecuting-corporations http://www.npr.org/2017/07/11/536642560/is-the-justice-depar...
- m3kw9 9y ago2000s was a time when even penny stocks that did similar stuff to real company’s, they would go up big just from stock board members pumping them up
- fourstar 9y agoSee: ICO.