14 ms·

Study finds putting people in prison increases re-offence rate vs. probation

235 points by arikr 9y ago

alphaalpha101 9y ago
causation/correlation confusion?
bendbro 9y ago
What makes you think these prisoners want rehabilitation? Rather than that, I'd prefer a three-strikes-you're-out prison colony positioned in a walled portion of Utah, funded by PPV drone footage of the prisoners raping, robbing, and killing each other. Edit: it seems some people dislike my idea. What if we compromised and made it opt-in on life sentences? Springboarding off that, we could progress cutting edge medical science by allowing the prisoners to customize their bodies with genetic and mechanical augmentations. Maybe one guy will graft a mind controlled articulating mace to his tailbone? Perhaps another with decide he wants nerve integrated sword arms? Somebody really brave might relocate their eyes to a lizard configuration? The possibilities are exhilarating.
- aaronbrethorst 9y ago
  They're human beings, not animals, for starters. Backgrounder on three strikes laws: https://www.aclu.org/other/10-reasons-oppose-3-strikes-youre-out https://www.aclu.org/other/10-reasons-oppose-3-strikes-youre...
  - stupidcomments 9y ago
    To continue, even if they were animals, its not like animal fighting is something civilized people look kindly upon. I think this comment may have finally made me give up on this site haha. Good night and good luck.
    - stupidcomments 9y ago
      This is just a strong reaction- Ill put it down to the top comment being a late night / drunk comment or some such. I know that majority of commentors here at least try to be considerate
  - tyingq 9y ago
    It's not just 3 strikes laws. There's many similar laws that "enhance" misdemeanors into felonies, or class C felonies into class B/A for even one previous convinction. The leverage that creates results in more plea bargains, so the system feeds itself. One example...20 years to life for shoplifting a candy bar: http://mimesislaw.com/fault-lines/felonies-are-serious-in-louisiana/8423 http://mimesislaw.com/fault-lines/felonies-are-serious-in-lo... The defandant does have a lot of priors, but none of them terribly notable. They included five priors for petty theft, one conviction for possessing fake drugs with intent to distribute, and a conviction for obscenity.
    - dsfyu404ed 9y ago
      Gun stacking is a good example. I get the intent of the law but it just promotes organized crime.
- tryingagainbro 9y ago
  >>Rather than that, I'd prefer a three-strikes-you're-out Why are you jumping to the third strike? Put someone in jail for a crime we all have committed (I'm 99% sure that you have committed a crime https://reason.com/archives/2009/10/19/were-all-felons-now https://reason.com/archives/2009/10/19/were-all-felons-now ) they lose their job, become broke and essentially have nothing to lose. Not to mention the Crime University training they got while in jail.
  - tyingq 9y ago
    >they lose their job, become broke and essentially have nothing to lose That's a fair amount of it. Background checks are cheap and easy now...just a website and a few dollars. 20 years ago, only big companies did background checks. Almost every company does now. It is VERY difficult to get any kind of job with a felony conviction on your record. Getting one that pays even a barely livable wage is even more difficult. The outcome from that situation is predictable.
    - zaroth 9y ago
      But if there's a massive untapped market of ex-felons willing, able, and desperate for work, then any company who hired them would have a huge economic advantage! I think in reality ex-felons are much more likely to be unqualified, under-performing, and high-risk hires that could cause major issues at a company and that companies on average are smart to avoid them. Obviously that sucks tremendously for the ex-felons who would have been model employees, but you can't exactly weed them out by asking nicely during the interview process? I think best case is there may be certain jobs which are "firewalled" enough internally/externally that you can risk hiring a convicted felon but in most cases it's probably a rational choice by a company not to hire them. Broadly excluding any applicant with any conviction at any point of their life is certainly not appropriate and possibly even effectively illegal racial discrimination, but the flip side is hiring a dangerous felon, aka negligent hiring and if it causes harm to a customer or employee you can be sued for that as well.
      - tyingq 9y ago
- sctb 9y ago
  This comment does not meet the standards of civility for this site. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
beegeezuz 9y ago
Why don't we stop punishing people for doing bad things and reward them instead? Like give them money for killing and robbing. Wouldn't that be great?
zelos 9y ago
But the decision between probation or a custodial sentence is based partly on the attitude, risk profile and situation of the offender. Surely that's going to skew the statistics?
- jackvalentine 9y ago
  I hope that was controlled for somehow. I’m on mobile and can’t pinpoint the paper itself to read and find out - http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=t5XxEi8AAAAJ&hl=en http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=t5XxEi8AAAAJ&hl=en
  - zelos 9y ago
    My knowledge of statistics is negligible, but is it possible to measure a system and control for the same factors that the system itself is trying to control for?
    - omginternets 9y ago
      >is it possible to measure a system and control for the same factors that the system itself is trying to control for? It's hard to have a meaningful discussion of these issues in the abstract, but the short answer is: 1) it depends 2) bias correction is not a trivial matter Firstly, you have to have some sort of quantitative estimate of the bias. This is not always possible, and even in cases where it is, said estimate may be noisy or, itself, biased. Bias correction is useful and often legitimate, but its use should always be interpreted as weakening the epistemological rigor of the analysis. In lay terms: bias correction should be consumed with a grain of salt. General entry point into the subject matter: https://stats.stackexchange.com/q/31253/17054 https://stats.stackexchange.com/q/31253/17054
  - kgwgk 9y ago
    Apparently not... The abstract mentions only “taking into account sentence lengths and stratifying our analysis by race”. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/26/1701544114.short http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/26/1701544114.shor...
tyfon 9y ago
Here is a presentation[1] of one of the maximum security prisons in Norway. If you treat people better you will have lower rates of reincarceration[2]. In essence, they are trying to create "good neighbors" out of the prisoners. And we are certainly not a homogeneous society that many use as an argument that this would not work elsewhere. In my city, Drammen, a bit outside of Oslo, about 1/3 of the population are not native Norwegians and there are over 100 nationalities here. My daughters school has over 30 nationalities. (And I don't think this is a bad thing) [1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB037gVIpJc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB037gVIpJc [2]http://www.businessinsider.com/why-norways-prison-system-is-so-successful-2014-12?r=US&IR=T&IR=T http://www.businessinsider.com/why-norways-prison-system-is-...
- wallace_f 9y ago
  A bit of a tangent, but evidence such as this makes me fear the trend towards greater centralization and globalization of powers. In other words, it's not just that there are obvious benefits to competition, it's probably true that we need it to progress.
- FreekNortier 9y ago
  Prisons like that are only possible in countries with a high percentage of tax paying citizens as is the case in Norway. Here in Africa there is simply no money for that.
  - b0rsuk 9y ago
    I don't mean to sound patronizing and teach you about your own continent, but I heard the main problem with Africa is not lack of money. It's corruption. Africa has lots of space and natural resources. Those resources are mined, extracted and sold but profits go to a small caste of wealthy warlords and/or corrupt leaders. And yes the climate is harsh. Especially the heat literally makes thinking hard. There was a study about government clerks in USA, their work effectiveness shot up by 20% once they got air conditioning. In a way Africa is similar to Russian Federation. Both are vast, both have bad climate and both have lots of natural resources. Both are hamstrung by corruption.
dovdovdov 9y ago
just as intended, this is business, not some societal good doing.
- wu-ikkyu 9y ago
  Despite the down votes, you are correct. Jon Oliver did a bit a while back about for profit prisons, which revealed how "high recidivism rates" were part of the investor sales pitch.
rutierut 9y ago
Wow what a miracle who could have seen this coming -_-. It is an absolute mistery to me how a county this big still runs a prison system that is so obviously dysfunctional.
- rurban 9y ago
  It's a misery, but it's very functional for them: 1. cut democratic voters by half. Blacks used to vote democratic. Once in a prison you cannot vote anymore. 50% of all young black men in the working age once were in prison. Mostly due to selective targeting and drugs policies. 2. prison for profit. It's modern slavery, free workforce. Together with the colluding justice system a perfect slavery system.
jlebrech 9y ago
some people deserve their full sentences and not probation, but instead they are locked up and released early and recidivise.
- sgift 9y ago
  > instead they are locked up and released early and recidivise. Where humans work errors happen, there are no guarantees in life.
- gerbilly 9y ago
  > deserve I don't think anybody is qualified to know what people 'deserve.'
JulianMorrison 9y ago
Prison was always about revenge. And slavery. Nasty, childish thing.
- tyfon 9y ago
  Now, this is what has always baffled me about the US. I will try to condense this a bit. The US is primarily a christian country supposedly founded on christian values etc. I am an atheist, and a nihilist in that I do not think there is an inherent moral in the universe. However, that means that life is a chance happening. There is probably life elsewhere in the universe but it is rare as far as we know. This means each life is inherently special and we should strive to enable each and everyone to reach their maximum potential and explore this great opportunity we have. This means adopting a humanistic approach to life (and in my case, life as in all life not just humans). Back to the US. I have read the bible and I have taken many lessons from it even though I am not religious. Jesus was one of the first real humanists and have many great things to say. Do no kill. Do to others as you want them to do to you. Turn the other cheek. Forgive.. This is the essence of christianity. They make sense to me even if I am not religious. Many of his guidelines would improve everyones life. But in the US you are so hell bent on revenge that the words fall on death ears. I know I am generalising here and this is not the case for every American. But as you say, prisons were always about revenge. Is there any explanation for this paradox?
  - creaghpatr 9y ago
    Sure, Jesus practiced what he preached and the result was he got nailed to a cross. But at least he didn't have to suffer through subpar American prison conditions!
  - smhost 9y ago
    If you label something as evil, as the anti-Christ, and as an assault on the Kingdom of God, there's nothing you can't justify. If you listen to conservative radio, you'll hear people very soberly talking about how the literal Apocalypse is just around the corner, about the insidious operations of the Illuminati, and other things like this. It's the same on alt-right cesspools like /pol/. They think that gender studies professors are literally the true seat of political power in the U.S. and that they're trying to sabotage the nation by sowing degeneracy into our lives. They think that degeneracy (which includes things like homosexuality, nudity on television, etc.) will destroy the social fabric within our lifetime and we'll descend into chaos and our civilization will end. If you're convinced that your civilization is literally about to end, locking up these evil criminals actually becomes an act of kindness and mercy.
b0rsuk 9y ago
The bad part of jail system is that law-breakers are put in contact with other law-breakers. It's no secret environment infuences people and people learn by example. This post is inspired by Finnish education system. I read an article which mentioned a bad behaving class, which was merged with a good behaving one. Their behavior improved, because they were suddenly under good influence and bad behavior was no longer universally tolerated. What I'm trying to say is perhaps law-breakers should be inserted into some MODEL society, some kind of modern utopia/forced labor camp where people are treated nice and work is hard but satisfying. And not a place where everything they get is for free. Do you know any examples where something like this took place ?
- codesnik 9y ago
  we need new Australia! but on Mars.
  - b0rsuk 9y ago
    Ahh, Australia, the continent where going to toilet at night requires checking your shoes and looking under toilet seat. Where even silly looking platypus is venomous.
reubeniv 9y ago
Tricky, because I would also think it's almost impossible to factor in the likelihood of deterring a first offence either might have
jasonmaydie 9y ago
Study finds not putting people in prison increases crime rate
jaclaz 9y ago
Am I missing something? The leading picture is about California prisoners, the study is on Michigan ones (BTW between 2003 and 2006), and most considerations are about US in general. Besides obvious differences in demographics and possibly "types of crimes", AFAIK in Michigan there is no "three strike Law": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-strikes_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-strikes_law (while there is, and it is seemingly enforced very aggressively, counting even what other states/coutries would define minor offences) in California.
olavolav 9y ago
Dear HN audience. For almost all of the topics discussed here, if you haven't already, please go read this book: Michel Foucault, Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison [1] The seminal book on questions like: Where do prisons come from? Why did anyone ever think that they were a good idea? Do they work? Highly recommended [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discipline_and_Punish https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discipline_and_Punish
- Double_a_92 9y ago
  People that did bad things are not running around freely anymore... It's not rocket science ._.
  - olavolav 9y ago
    Well, I think the OP should give you the idea that if your goal is (for example) to reduce violent crime rates overall, then the answer might be more complicated than that...
spoiledtechie 9y ago
Or, maybe just the harder criminals are always going to reoffend. Vs the probation criminals did something, which they learn from. Because they are the softer criminals.
program_whiz 9y ago
Seems like the study is confusing cause/effect. Those on probation are probably less likely to commit another crime partly because the crime they did commit was a first offense, less serious/violent, etc. -- otherwise they probably would not have been paroled (e.g. you're more likely to go to prison if you killed someone than if you got caught with a small quantity of illegal drugs). Similarly, the article talks about how "education reduces recidivism by 50%". However, this is a self-selecting group of prisoners who decide to go to school/college, and so they are less likely to commit future crimes. I doubt those kind of numbers would hold if you forced all inmates to gain education. Since HS education is free, and most people now can get a loan for college and go somewhere (at least as good as prison college), almost all of these people who didn't get the education "on the outside" decided not to pursue it. So logically, those prisoners joining these classes voluntarily are mostly prisoners who realize they need to change and already see education as a "way out" -- so its not really a cause/effect but a correlation. Edit: Clarity of last sentences
- gipp 9y ago
  > Seems like the study is confusing cause/effect. The article provides literally no context on which to base that judgment. The study could most certainly have been designed to (at least attempt to) disambiguate all of the issues you're talking about here. Everything you've mentioned is experimental design 101, these are routine things to take into account. Of course, since the study (http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/26/1701544114.abstract http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/26/1701544114.abst...) is PNAS and not open-access, I also have no context to make any conclusions.
  - thanatosmin 9y ago
    Quickly reading through the study, they stratify prisoners by severity of crime, claiming this is a natural experiment because the only remaining variation is in the judge selected. Not an expert in sentencing but I thought extenuating circumstances can be considered which wouldn't be corrected for here.
VikingCoder 9y ago
I saw someone suggest on Reddit, "What if after someone is released from prison, we paid the prison a bonus every year they go without being convicted of a crime?" Seemed super smart to me. Incentivise the right behavior.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- vidarh 9y ago
  Until some prison warden decides to cripple as many prisoners as possible to ensure they can't reoffend.
  - VikingCoder 9y ago
    That would be illegal. And they should be punished to the fullest extent of the law.
- KekDemaga 9y ago
  What is "the prison"? A state run organization? In that case why would some bureaucrat care if his budget goes up, he's a union member most likely thus his pay is more related to time employed than the budget being fiscally sound. Now consider this is a private prison, why would they ever not release someone? Releasing someone lowers their costs and may provide a reward, on the other hand they have to continue to pay for a prisoners upkeep and have no chance at a reward if they vote for him to stay. This is all moot because it isn't prisons that decide who gets to go free but a parole board. That's part of a judicial process typically unaffiliated from the prison itself.
  - VikingCoder 9y ago
    In the United States, many prisons are private, for-profit enterprises. They're the ones I'm talking about. It's not up to a private prison WHEN they release someone. It's up to them how they are treated while they are IN the prison. If they are offered classes, job training, mental health care, support groups, etc. Or if they're brutalized in an uncaring institution, and released worse off than when they came in. Sorry I didn't explain myself well.
whiddershins 9y ago
It seems nearly impossible to do this study ethically and also remove all confounding variables. The best way I could think of would be to compare the results of sentences given by different judges or jurisdictions who have different tendencies to imprison for the same exact offense. The problem is that there’s not really any such thing as “the same offense.” If you talk directly to people who work in law enforcement they indicate sentencing is much less about the precise crime and much more about whether all involved perceive the offender as a “bad guy.” If the people involved (da, police, judge, jury) are in any way accurate in that assessment, it will stand to reason a person incarcerated will be more likely to reoffend. That’s what everyone was perceiving which is why they incarcerated the person in the first place.
arikr 9y ago
Highly recommended for anyone who liked this article: https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/impact-incarceration-crime https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/impact-incarceration-c...
imroot 9y ago
The problem with prison in the US is that we, as a country, really don't have a way to separate the difference between those who we're truly afraid of as a society versus those who we are just upset with.
prisonthrowaway 9y ago
Throwaway because I want to put my past behind me. I've been to prison. Convicted of assault when I turned 18 years old. At 20, I was released and the system provided no re-integration efforts for me. In Feb 2003, I was homeless, no family, and I lost all my friends. I applied for over 100 jobs while sleeping in the back of an abandoned car with no luck. Finally I lied to get employment at a local McDonald's. Then I begged a literally insane person to let me sleep on her couch until I received enough money to get a place of my own. I had to pay her in sperm donations (as she wanted a child). I had to steal food to eat in those first few months. On top of that, I had $18,000 in restitution and 10 years of probation. If I missed payments, I'd go back to prison. Fast forward 10 years, I put myself through college, paid off the restitution in full, got off probation 5 years early, moved the hell away from my home town, and built a million dollar company. I got curious a few years ago and looked up all my fellow inmates. 100% of them were back in prison. When I think of how lucky I am to have escaped that life, I have no words...
- padobson 9y ago
  Wow, what an awesome story. I don't think you should be ashamed of it - really inspiring. Being a company owner, would you be more or less likely to hire folks with a criminal record based on your experience?
  - prisonthrowaway 9y ago
    I wrote a book describing my experience in detail and how I overcame particulars, but every time I think about publishing, I back down. The last few years, I'm finally rid of that "black spot" over my head that I'm not ready to bring it back quite yet. Not to mention, I need to focus on running my company at the moment. I never ask if a person has been arrested/convicted of a felony during the hiring process. People can do great work regardless if they're black, white, male, female, immigrant, or felon.
    - warent 9y ago
      Your story isn't just an inspiration, but it's also what the world needs. I've never been to prison, but I have been homeless for months; battled addiction; jailed for minor offense; still haven't achieved a higher education. Still though, now I'm an engineer at Google. What we can find is that being ashamed of our past is a very limited way of thinking. There are millions of people out there who can benefit from our struggle. People in better situations and worse situations. The more we share our stories, it helps society as a whole. And, really, that's what this is all about, isn't it? Would love to read your book, and would definitely endorse it. Hell, I'd would be interested talking more sometime as well. Add me to your mailing list if you have one! Email: hello@wyatt.engineer
lightedman 9y ago
You honestly can't expect much more from a state whose top attorney says "We need all this free slav^W^W prison labor to keep our state going!"
Evolved 9y ago
This is only partially related to the article but I still feel it is relevant and I'd like to know if anyone has data to support either side on this. Summed up, it explains that asocial violence or antisocial aggression in general are directly correlated with warmer climates. http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-23538771 http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-23538771
indubitable 9y ago
Studies like this are frustrating. The conclusion confirms my own biases, so I want to respect the study - but there are, invariably, issues that make it difficult to take their conclusions at face value. Put another way, it's entirely possible somebody looking at the data a different way could present an entirely incompatible conclusion. For instance an issue this study faced was that it's difficult to control for the fact that extenuating circumstances and other factors help determine the sentencing for individuals. A judge, presumably, will make some effort to attempt to sentence individuals who are less likely to reoffend to probation rather than prison, and vice versa. The study argued that the random assignment of judges to cases, each of whom has their own sentencing tendencies, works as a control here but I think that is less than compelling. A judge may be more or less lenient on average, but that does not change the fact that all judges are going to be aiming to achieve the same thing. You're not comparing apples to apples. It seems the only solution would be genuine random sentencing in a controlled experiment, but there are obviously certain ethical issues there. It's unfortunate since our system is completely broken. You create environments where individuals are treated like dehumanized animals and pushed towards greater degrees of sociopathy with no meaningful effort made towards rehabilitation. And suddenly after being in this situation for years, they're supposed to come out better than ever ready to integrate and become a productive member of society? Obviously the idea is that fear of being put in that circumstance is supposed to be a deterrent. But given an overall recidivism rate now of 76.6% [1] over 5 years, it should be self evident that this idea is quite obviously not working. [1] - https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4986 https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4986

235 points by arikr 9y ago

causation/correlation confusion?

What makes you think these prisoners want rehabilitation? Rather than that, I'd prefer a three-strikes-you're-out prison colony positioned in a walled portion of Utah, funded by PPV drone footage of the prisoners raping, robbing, and killing each other. Edit: it seems some people dislike my idea. What if we compromised and made it opt-in on life sentences? Springboarding off that, we could progress cutting edge medical science by allowing the prisoners to customize their bodies with genetic and mechanical augmentations. Maybe one guy will graft a mind controlled articulating mace to his tailbone? Perhaps another with decide he wants nerve integrated sword arms? Somebody really brave might relocate their eyes to a lizard configuration? The possibilities are exhilarating.

aaronbrethorst 9y ago
They're human beings, not animals, for starters. Backgrounder on three strikes laws: https://www.aclu.org/other/10-reasons-oppose-3-strikes-youre-out https://www.aclu.org/other/10-reasons-oppose-3-strikes-youre...
- stupidcomments 9y ago
  To continue, even if they were animals, its not like animal fighting is something civilized people look kindly upon. I think this comment may have finally made me give up on this site haha. Good night and good luck.
  - stupidcomments 9y ago
    This is just a strong reaction- Ill put it down to the top comment being a late night / drunk comment or some such. I know that majority of commentors here at least try to be considerate
- tyingq 9y ago
  It's not just 3 strikes laws. There's many similar laws that "enhance" misdemeanors into felonies, or class C felonies into class B/A for even one previous convinction. The leverage that creates results in more plea bargains, so the system feeds itself. One example...20 years to life for shoplifting a candy bar: http://mimesislaw.com/fault-lines/felonies-are-serious-in-louisiana/8423 http://mimesislaw.com/fault-lines/felonies-are-serious-in-lo... The defandant does have a lot of priors, but none of them terribly notable. They included five priors for petty theft, one conviction for possessing fake drugs with intent to distribute, and a conviction for obscenity.
  - dsfyu404ed 9y ago
    Gun stacking is a good example. I get the intent of the law but it just promotes organized crime.
tryingagainbro 9y ago
>>Rather than that, I'd prefer a three-strikes-you're-out Why are you jumping to the third strike? Put someone in jail for a crime we all have committed (I'm 99% sure that you have committed a crime https://reason.com/archives/2009/10/19/were-all-felons-now https://reason.com/archives/2009/10/19/were-all-felons-now ) they lose their job, become broke and essentially have nothing to lose. Not to mention the Crime University training they got while in jail.
- tyingq 9y ago
  >they lose their job, become broke and essentially have nothing to lose That's a fair amount of it. Background checks are cheap and easy now...just a website and a few dollars. 20 years ago, only big companies did background checks. Almost every company does now. It is VERY difficult to get any kind of job with a felony conviction on your record. Getting one that pays even a barely livable wage is even more difficult. The outcome from that situation is predictable.
  - zaroth 9y ago
    But if there's a massive untapped market of ex-felons willing, able, and desperate for work, then any company who hired them would have a huge economic advantage! I think in reality ex-felons are much more likely to be unqualified, under-performing, and high-risk hires that could cause major issues at a company and that companies on average are smart to avoid them. Obviously that sucks tremendously for the ex-felons who would have been model employees, but you can't exactly weed them out by asking nicely during the interview process? I think best case is there may be certain jobs which are "firewalled" enough internally/externally that you can risk hiring a convicted felon but in most cases it's probably a rational choice by a company not to hire them. Broadly excluding any applicant with any conviction at any point of their life is certainly not appropriate and possibly even effectively illegal racial discrimination, but the flip side is hiring a dangerous felon, aka negligent hiring and if it causes harm to a customer or employee you can be sued for that as well.
    - tyingq 9y ago
sctb 9y ago
This comment does not meet the standards of civility for this site. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

beegeezuz 9y ago

Why don't we stop punishing people for doing bad things and reward them instead? Like give them money for killing and robbing. Wouldn't that be great?

zelos 9y ago

But the decision between probation or a custodial sentence is based partly on the attitude, risk profile and situation of the offender. Surely that's going to skew the statistics?

jackvalentine 9y ago
I hope that was controlled for somehow. I’m on mobile and can’t pinpoint the paper itself to read and find out - http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=t5XxEi8AAAAJ&hl=en http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=t5XxEi8AAAAJ&hl=en
- zelos 9y ago
  My knowledge of statistics is negligible, but is it possible to measure a system and control for the same factors that the system itself is trying to control for?
  - omginternets 9y ago
    >is it possible to measure a system and control for the same factors that the system itself is trying to control for? It's hard to have a meaningful discussion of these issues in the abstract, but the short answer is: 1) it depends 2) bias correction is not a trivial matter Firstly, you have to have some sort of quantitative estimate of the bias. This is not always possible, and even in cases where it is, said estimate may be noisy or, itself, biased. Bias correction is useful and often legitimate, but its use should always be interpreted as weakening the epistemological rigor of the analysis. In lay terms: bias correction should be consumed with a grain of salt. General entry point into the subject matter: https://stats.stackexchange.com/q/31253/17054 https://stats.stackexchange.com/q/31253/17054
- kgwgk 9y ago
  Apparently not... The abstract mentions only “taking into account sentence lengths and stratifying our analysis by race”. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/26/1701544114.short http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/26/1701544114.shor...

tyfon 9y ago

Here is a presentation[1] of one of the maximum security prisons in Norway. If you treat people better you will have lower rates of reincarceration[2]. In essence, they are trying to create "good neighbors" out of the prisoners. And we are certainly not a homogeneous society that many use as an argument that this would not work elsewhere. In my city, Drammen, a bit outside of Oslo, about 1/3 of the population are not native Norwegians and there are over 100 nationalities here. My daughters school has over 30 nationalities. (And I don't think this is a bad thing) [1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB037gVIpJc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB037gVIpJc [2]http://www.businessinsider.com/why-norways-prison-system-is-so-successful-2014-12?r=US&IR=T&IR=T http://www.businessinsider.com/why-norways-prison-system-is-...

wallace_f 9y ago
A bit of a tangent, but evidence such as this makes me fear the trend towards greater centralization and globalization of powers. In other words, it's not just that there are obvious benefits to competition, it's probably true that we need it to progress.
FreekNortier 9y ago
Prisons like that are only possible in countries with a high percentage of tax paying citizens as is the case in Norway. Here in Africa there is simply no money for that.
- b0rsuk 9y ago
  I don't mean to sound patronizing and teach you about your own continent, but I heard the main problem with Africa is not lack of money. It's corruption. Africa has lots of space and natural resources. Those resources are mined, extracted and sold but profits go to a small caste of wealthy warlords and/or corrupt leaders. And yes the climate is harsh. Especially the heat literally makes thinking hard. There was a study about government clerks in USA, their work effectiveness shot up by 20% once they got air conditioning. In a way Africa is similar to Russian Federation. Both are vast, both have bad climate and both have lots of natural resources. Both are hamstrung by corruption.

dovdovdov 9y ago

just as intended, this is business, not some societal good doing.

wu-ikkyu 9y ago
Despite the down votes, you are correct. Jon Oliver did a bit a while back about for profit prisons, which revealed how "high recidivism rates" were part of the investor sales pitch.

rutierut 9y ago

Wow what a miracle who could have seen this coming -_-. It is an absolute mistery to me how a county this big still runs a prison system that is so obviously dysfunctional.

rurban 9y ago
It's a misery, but it's very functional for them: 1. cut democratic voters by half. Blacks used to vote democratic. Once in a prison you cannot vote anymore. 50% of all young black men in the working age once were in prison. Mostly due to selective targeting and drugs policies. 2. prison for profit. It's modern slavery, free workforce. Together with the colluding justice system a perfect slavery system.

jlebrech 9y ago

some people deserve their full sentences and not probation, but instead they are locked up and released early and recidivise.

sgift 9y ago
> instead they are locked up and released early and recidivise. Where humans work errors happen, there are no guarantees in life.
gerbilly 9y ago
> deserve I don't think anybody is qualified to know what people 'deserve.'

JulianMorrison 9y ago

Prison was always about revenge. And slavery. Nasty, childish thing.

tyfon 9y ago
Now, this is what has always baffled me about the US. I will try to condense this a bit. The US is primarily a christian country supposedly founded on christian values etc. I am an atheist, and a nihilist in that I do not think there is an inherent moral in the universe. However, that means that life is a chance happening. There is probably life elsewhere in the universe but it is rare as far as we know. This means each life is inherently special and we should strive to enable each and everyone to reach their maximum potential and explore this great opportunity we have. This means adopting a humanistic approach to life (and in my case, life as in all life not just humans). Back to the US. I have read the bible and I have taken many lessons from it even though I am not religious. Jesus was one of the first real humanists and have many great things to say. Do no kill. Do to others as you want them to do to you. Turn the other cheek. Forgive.. This is the essence of christianity. They make sense to me even if I am not religious. Many of his guidelines would improve everyones life. But in the US you are so hell bent on revenge that the words fall on death ears. I know I am generalising here and this is not the case for every American. But as you say, prisons were always about revenge. Is there any explanation for this paradox?
- creaghpatr 9y ago
  Sure, Jesus practiced what he preached and the result was he got nailed to a cross. But at least he didn't have to suffer through subpar American prison conditions!
- smhost 9y ago
  If you label something as evil, as the anti-Christ, and as an assault on the Kingdom of God, there's nothing you can't justify. If you listen to conservative radio, you'll hear people very soberly talking about how the literal Apocalypse is just around the corner, about the insidious operations of the Illuminati, and other things like this. It's the same on alt-right cesspools like /pol/. They think that gender studies professors are literally the true seat of political power in the U.S. and that they're trying to sabotage the nation by sowing degeneracy into our lives. They think that degeneracy (which includes things like homosexuality, nudity on television, etc.) will destroy the social fabric within our lifetime and we'll descend into chaos and our civilization will end. If you're convinced that your civilization is literally about to end, locking up these evil criminals actually becomes an act of kindness and mercy.

b0rsuk 9y ago

The bad part of jail system is that law-breakers are put in contact with other law-breakers. It's no secret environment infuences people and people learn by example. This post is inspired by Finnish education system. I read an article which mentioned a bad behaving class, which was merged with a good behaving one. Their behavior improved, because they were suddenly under good influence and bad behavior was no longer universally tolerated. What I'm trying to say is perhaps law-breakers should be inserted into some MODEL society, some kind of modern utopia/forced labor camp where people are treated nice and work is hard but satisfying. And not a place where everything they get is for free. Do you know any examples where something like this took place ?

codesnik 9y ago
we need new Australia! but on Mars.
- b0rsuk 9y ago
  Ahh, Australia, the continent where going to toilet at night requires checking your shoes and looking under toilet seat. Where even silly looking platypus is venomous.

reubeniv 9y ago

Tricky, because I would also think it's almost impossible to factor in the likelihood of deterring a first offence either might have

jasonmaydie 9y ago

Study finds not putting people in prison increases crime rate

jaclaz 9y ago

Am I missing something? The leading picture is about California prisoners, the study is on Michigan ones (BTW between 2003 and 2006), and most considerations are about US in general. Besides obvious differences in demographics and possibly "types of crimes", AFAIK in Michigan there is no "three strike Law": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-strikes_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-strikes_law (while there is, and it is seemingly enforced very aggressively, counting even what other states/coutries would define minor offences) in California.

olavolav 9y ago

Dear HN audience. For almost all of the topics discussed here, if you haven't already, please go read this book: Michel Foucault, Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison [1] The seminal book on questions like: Where do prisons come from? Why did anyone ever think that they were a good idea? Do they work? Highly recommended [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discipline_and_Punish https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discipline_and_Punish

Double_a_92 9y ago
People that did bad things are not running around freely anymore... It's not rocket science ._.
- olavolav 9y ago
  Well, I think the OP should give you the idea that if your goal is (for example) to reduce violent crime rates overall, then the answer might be more complicated than that...

spoiledtechie 9y ago

Or, maybe just the harder criminals are always going to reoffend. Vs the probation criminals did something, which they learn from. Because they are the softer criminals.

program_whiz 9y ago

Seems like the study is confusing cause/effect. Those on probation are probably less likely to commit another crime partly because the crime they did commit was a first offense, less serious/violent, etc. -- otherwise they probably would not have been paroled (e.g. you're more likely to go to prison if you killed someone than if you got caught with a small quantity of illegal drugs). Similarly, the article talks about how "education reduces recidivism by 50%". However, this is a self-selecting group of prisoners who decide to go to school/college, and so they are less likely to commit future crimes. I doubt those kind of numbers would hold if you forced all inmates to gain education. Since HS education is free, and most people now can get a loan for college and go somewhere (at least as good as prison college), almost all of these people who didn't get the education "on the outside" decided not to pursue it. So logically, those prisoners joining these classes voluntarily are mostly prisoners who realize they need to change and already see education as a "way out" -- so its not really a cause/effect but a correlation. Edit: Clarity of last sentences

gipp 9y ago
> Seems like the study is confusing cause/effect. The article provides literally no context on which to base that judgment. The study could most certainly have been designed to (at least attempt to) disambiguate all of the issues you're talking about here. Everything you've mentioned is experimental design 101, these are routine things to take into account. Of course, since the study (http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/26/1701544114.abstract http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/09/26/1701544114.abst...) is PNAS and not open-access, I also have no context to make any conclusions.
- thanatosmin 9y ago
  Quickly reading through the study, they stratify prisoners by severity of crime, claiming this is a natural experiment because the only remaining variation is in the judge selected. Not an expert in sentencing but I thought extenuating circumstances can be considered which wouldn't be corrected for here.

VikingCoder 9y ago

I saw someone suggest on Reddit, "What if after someone is released from prison, we paid the prison a bonus every year they go without being convicted of a crime?" Seemed super smart to me. Incentivise the right behavior.

deleted 9y ago
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vidarh 9y ago
Until some prison warden decides to cripple as many prisoners as possible to ensure they can't reoffend.
- VikingCoder 9y ago
  That would be illegal. And they should be punished to the fullest extent of the law.
KekDemaga 9y ago
What is "the prison"? A state run organization? In that case why would some bureaucrat care if his budget goes up, he's a union member most likely thus his pay is more related to time employed than the budget being fiscally sound. Now consider this is a private prison, why would they ever not release someone? Releasing someone lowers their costs and may provide a reward, on the other hand they have to continue to pay for a prisoners upkeep and have no chance at a reward if they vote for him to stay. This is all moot because it isn't prisons that decide who gets to go free but a parole board. That's part of a judicial process typically unaffiliated from the prison itself.
- VikingCoder 9y ago
  In the United States, many prisons are private, for-profit enterprises. They're the ones I'm talking about. It's not up to a private prison WHEN they release someone. It's up to them how they are treated while they are IN the prison. If they are offered classes, job training, mental health care, support groups, etc. Or if they're brutalized in an uncaring institution, and released worse off than when they came in. Sorry I didn't explain myself well.

whiddershins 9y ago

It seems nearly impossible to do this study ethically and also remove all confounding variables. The best way I could think of would be to compare the results of sentences given by different judges or jurisdictions who have different tendencies to imprison for the same exact offense. The problem is that there’s not really any such thing as “the same offense.” If you talk directly to people who work in law enforcement they indicate sentencing is much less about the precise crime and much more about whether all involved perceive the offender as a “bad guy.” If the people involved (da, police, judge, jury) are in any way accurate in that assessment, it will stand to reason a person incarcerated will be more likely to reoffend. That’s what everyone was perceiving which is why they incarcerated the person in the first place.

arikr 9y ago

Highly recommended for anyone who liked this article: https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/impact-incarceration-crime https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/impact-incarceration-c...

imroot 9y ago

The problem with prison in the US is that we, as a country, really don't have a way to separate the difference between those who we're truly afraid of as a society versus those who we are just upset with.

prisonthrowaway 9y ago

Throwaway because I want to put my past behind me. I've been to prison. Convicted of assault when I turned 18 years old. At 20, I was released and the system provided no re-integration efforts for me. In Feb 2003, I was homeless, no family, and I lost all my friends. I applied for over 100 jobs while sleeping in the back of an abandoned car with no luck. Finally I lied to get employment at a local McDonald's. Then I begged a literally insane person to let me sleep on her couch until I received enough money to get a place of my own. I had to pay her in sperm donations (as she wanted a child). I had to steal food to eat in those first few months. On top of that, I had $18,000 in restitution and 10 years of probation. If I missed payments, I'd go back to prison. Fast forward 10 years, I put myself through college, paid off the restitution in full, got off probation 5 years early, moved the hell away from my home town, and built a million dollar company. I got curious a few years ago and looked up all my fellow inmates. 100% of them were back in prison. When I think of how lucky I am to have escaped that life, I have no words...

padobson 9y ago
Wow, what an awesome story. I don't think you should be ashamed of it - really inspiring. Being a company owner, would you be more or less likely to hire folks with a criminal record based on your experience?
- prisonthrowaway 9y ago
  I wrote a book describing my experience in detail and how I overcame particulars, but every time I think about publishing, I back down. The last few years, I'm finally rid of that "black spot" over my head that I'm not ready to bring it back quite yet. Not to mention, I need to focus on running my company at the moment. I never ask if a person has been arrested/convicted of a felony during the hiring process. People can do great work regardless if they're black, white, male, female, immigrant, or felon.
  - warent 9y ago
    Your story isn't just an inspiration, but it's also what the world needs. I've never been to prison, but I have been homeless for months; battled addiction; jailed for minor offense; still haven't achieved a higher education. Still though, now I'm an engineer at Google. What we can find is that being ashamed of our past is a very limited way of thinking. There are millions of people out there who can benefit from our struggle. People in better situations and worse situations. The more we share our stories, it helps society as a whole. And, really, that's what this is all about, isn't it? Would love to read your book, and would definitely endorse it. Hell, I'd would be interested talking more sometime as well. Add me to your mailing list if you have one! Email: hello@wyatt.engineer

lightedman 9y ago

You honestly can't expect much more from a state whose top attorney says "We need all this free slav^W^W prison labor to keep our state going!"

Evolved 9y ago

This is only partially related to the article but I still feel it is relevant and I'd like to know if anyone has data to support either side on this. Summed up, it explains that asocial violence or antisocial aggression in general are directly correlated with warmer climates. http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-23538771 http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-23538771

indubitable 9y ago

Studies like this are frustrating. The conclusion confirms my own biases, so I want to respect the study - but there are, invariably, issues that make it difficult to take their conclusions at face value. Put another way, it's entirely possible somebody looking at the data a different way could present an entirely incompatible conclusion. For instance an issue this study faced was that it's difficult to control for the fact that extenuating circumstances and other factors help determine the sentencing for individuals. A judge, presumably, will make some effort to attempt to sentence individuals who are less likely to reoffend to probation rather than prison, and vice versa. The study argued that the random assignment of judges to cases, each of whom has their own sentencing tendencies, works as a control here but I think that is less than compelling. A judge may be more or less lenient on average, but that does not change the fact that all judges are going to be aiming to achieve the same thing. You're not comparing apples to apples. It seems the only solution would be genuine random sentencing in a controlled experiment, but there are obviously certain ethical issues there. It's unfortunate since our system is completely broken. You create environments where individuals are treated like dehumanized animals and pushed towards greater degrees of sociopathy with no meaningful effort made towards rehabilitation. And suddenly after being in this situation for years, they're supposed to come out better than ever ready to integrate and become a productive member of society? Obviously the idea is that fear of being put in that circumstance is supposed to be a deterrent. But given an overall recidivism rate now of 76.6% [1] over 5 years, it should be self evident that this idea is quite obviously not working. [1] - https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4986 https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4986