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Who cares if Musk's predictions are realistic? He is doing us all a tremendous service by keeping Mars in the public conversation.

SubiculumCode 9y ago
Realism is a difficult thing to predict. If you're conservative in your estimate of what is probable, then you probably will choose to do nothing. If you are too liberal, you may say I'm a dreamer (But I'm not the only one). If you manage to peg it to the true probability, then you will probably fail to inspire the imagination, and thus fail to motivate the ones that will help you achieve. Knowing this, you let your dream be a bit inflated, and by doing so you achieve more than you would have if you had said outright what was truly probable.
GoToRO 9y ago
For sure it's not a "tremendous service" for us all. It's just free marketing for his very real products.
jasonmaydie 9y ago
I still don't see why we should spend $$$ on mars when we have a perfectly good one here millions of light years in any direction. Maybe we should stop treating the only planet that supports life like shit and cherish it.
- baq 9y ago
  We should but some people don't care. A wise man hedges his bets.
  - jasonmaydie 9y ago
    a nuked earth will probably still be better than Mars after the dust has settled.
- tosstossy 9y ago
  They're not mutually exclusive, and it's not getting any less crowded on earth. It can seem like a tremendous diversion with the potential to abdicate any urgent need to address our problems at home, operating under the assumption that we'll replace it. But that's obviously flawed thinking, since anything we find nearly habitable will always be a poor substitute for where we evolved to live.
- boznz 9y ago
  Like moving to electric cars and using solar power...
traverseda 9y ago
His predictions are a measure of his ability to predict things. Ability to predict things is really important for running large scale projects. There are a number of reasons why he might give less-accurate predictions, like keeping mars in the public conversation.
- adventured 9y ago
  Primarily it's his ability to predict things on a very accurate timeline that he routinely fails at. Musk functions by a system of eventual correctness, with a time margin for error of perhaps between 3 and 20 years.

SubiculumCode 9y ago

Realism is a difficult thing to predict. If you're conservative in your estimate of what is probable, then you probably will choose to do nothing. If you are too liberal, you may say I'm a dreamer (But I'm not the only one). If you manage to peg it to the true probability, then you will probably fail to inspire the imagination, and thus fail to motivate the ones that will help you achieve. Knowing this, you let your dream be a bit inflated, and by doing so you achieve more than you would have if you had said outright what was truly probable.

GoToRO 9y ago

For sure it's not a "tremendous service" for us all. It's just free marketing for his very real products.

jasonmaydie 9y ago

I still don't see why we should spend $$$ on mars when we have a perfectly good one here millions of light years in any direction. Maybe we should stop treating the only planet that supports life like shit and cherish it.

baq 9y ago
We should but some people don't care. A wise man hedges his bets.
- jasonmaydie 9y ago
  a nuked earth will probably still be better than Mars after the dust has settled.
tosstossy 9y ago
They're not mutually exclusive, and it's not getting any less crowded on earth. It can seem like a tremendous diversion with the potential to abdicate any urgent need to address our problems at home, operating under the assumption that we'll replace it. But that's obviously flawed thinking, since anything we find nearly habitable will always be a poor substitute for where we evolved to live.
boznz 9y ago
Like moving to electric cars and using solar power...

traverseda 9y ago

His predictions are a measure of his ability to predict things. Ability to predict things is really important for running large scale projects. There are a number of reasons why he might give less-accurate predictions, like keeping mars in the public conversation.

adventured 9y ago
Primarily it's his ability to predict things on a very accurate timeline that he routinely fails at. Musk functions by a system of eventual correctness, with a time margin for error of perhaps between 3 and 20 years.