7 ms·
From the actual study (p.36): https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/1_krueger.pdf https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/1_krueg...
by hownottowrite 9y ago
From the actual study (p.36): https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/1_krueger.pdf https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/1_krueg...
"These regressions are difficult to interpret for a number of reasons, but if cross-county differences in opioid prescription rates can be taken as an exogenous result of differences in medical practices and norms conditional on personal characteristics and broad region dummies, the effect of the growth in opioid prescriptions on labor force can be estimated. In particular, I assume that the based opioid prescription rate coefficient reflects inherent differences across regions, and the interaction between prescriptions and time captures the effect of changes in prescriptions on labor force participation over time. This is a big leap, and ideally I would have preferred to have a baseline measure of prescriptions (country-level MME data are unavailable before 2010), so this calculation is at best considered illustrative. These caveats aside, opioid prescriptions per capita increased by a factor of 3.5 nationwide between 1999 and 2015, which is the equivalent of 0.55 log units. Multiplying 0.55 by the coefficient on the interaction between opioids and the second period (.011), suggests that the increase in opioid prescriptions could account for perhaps a 0.6 percentage point decline in male labor force participation, which is 20 percent of the observed decline in this period."
- nostromo 9y agoScientist: "difficult to interpret... I assume... This is a big leap... ideally I would have preferred... this calculation is at best considered illustrative... caveats aside..." Reporter: "Opioid Use Explains 20% of Drop in American Men From Labor Force"
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- chromaton 9y agoFortune has "1 in 5 Men Drop Out of the Labor Market Because of Drugs".
- laser 9y agoWow. I thought you were kidding. That's disgusting. I don't dare link it here for fear of encouraging such behavior.
- alphydan 9y agoBuzzfeed: 1 out of 5 men fired for smoking a joint!
- dsfyu404ed 9y agoHas anyone seen one to the tune of "4/5 men not fired for doing drugs"?
- toyg 9y agoAlso the fact that it "perhaps" covers 0.6% of the total which is 20% of people dropping out, so the headline should be " 1 in 5 of people leaving work might be doing it because of opioids".
- meri_dian 9y agoWhile genuine 'Fake News' is a real problem, hyperbolic reporting that disregards nuance to attract clicks from the lowest common denominator is much more widespread and insidiously damaging. I'd argue that it plays a large role in the polarization of society.
- kbenson 9y ago> is much more widespread and insidiously damaging. Is that "is much more widespread and is also insidiously damaging" or "is much more widespread and is much more insidiously damaging"?
- meri_dian 9y agoThe former. I'm not sure how to determine the amount of damage so I won't rank them.
- ekun 9y agoIt definitely helps blur the lines so that full-on fake news can more easily exist and be accepted.
- atmosx 9y agoI think that the whole fake-news is just a cry from news outlets clearly supporting democrats. Not that fake-news don't exist, it's the exact opposite: they're the norm and fake-news are the norm because is what mainstream media outlets actually do. So now that someone is beating them at their own game, they came out for blood and you see facebook effectively filtering out whatever is considered fake news, which is ridiculous on so many levels.
- Florin_Andrei 9y ago> hyperbolic reporting that disregards nuance to attract clicks from the lowest common denominator is much more widespread and insidiously damaging. I'd argue that it plays a large role in the polarization of society. So, which is better? That? Or accurate, nuanced reporting that the everyman does not even attempt to read because his eyes glaze over before he's done parsing the first sentence? The problem is not with the news, the problem is that this is what human nature is. The vast majority of people are amazingly bad at absorbing information regarding things beyond their immediate interests and horizon.
- biafra 9y agoIs that really what the headline said? Because now it is: "Opioid Use May Explain 20% of Drop in American Men’s Labor-Force Participation"
- dv_dt 9y agoyes it originally said "Opioid Explains 20% of Drop in American Men’s Labor-Force Participation". It was stealth updated.
- marcosdumay 9y agoWhat is still hyperbolic, since that link is still too tenuous to even call attention to it. The study does not really deserve a mainstream paper headline, but if it must have one, it should be about researchers looking for a link, not a link (maybe) existing.
- Florin_Andrei 9y agoIn other words, this: http://phdcomics.com/comics/archive.php?comicid=1174 http://phdcomics.com/comics/archive.php?comicid=1174
- antisthenes 9y agoI prefer this: http://smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=1623#comic http://smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=1623#comic
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- reactiveinertia 9y agoThat's jabber to evade political nuance. Opoid and drug abuse is obviously heavily prevalent in American society, and is part of their mainstream culture and media. The Americans spent hundreds billions of dollars just in their media push to make drug abuse a part of everyday American life. Opoid abuse has been _observed_ in other civilizations as leading to a collapse in labor throughput. The Middle Eastern empires, the Chinese Empires, etc... have all recorded _correlated_ evidence of opoid abuse to a collapse in economic throughput, but never "_proven_" it under the "rigor of Western Science". The real question isn't so much as to _what_ caused the drop in labor force. It is obviously not only drug abuse, where drug abuse is understood to be a symptom of the problem(s). The question that the scientist cannot or will not answer is why the Americans did this to themselves.
- intopieces 9y agoCould. Opioid use Could explain. How would you re-phrase it?
- grzm 9y agoAs I understand it from the other comments, the title of the article has changed since originally submitted. It looks like it's changed a couple of times. The original slug: > opioid-use-explains-20-of-drop-in-american-men-from-labor-force The current title on the article: > Opioid Use May Explain 20% of Drop in American Men’s Labor-Force Participation
- exotree 9y ago"Opioid Use May Explain 20% of Drop in American Men’s Labor-Force Participation"