6 ms·

Windows is doomed

40 points by mcone 9y ago

detritus 9y ago
Meh, Google doesn't really offer much by way of a platform for development (sure, I know some here code on Chromebooks) and severely risks demonopolisation; Apple will have to pull some magic out of the bag if it wants to stem the flow of developers and professionals leaving its platform and Windows is still on a significant number of productive workplace desktops (such as mine here). Phones are not computers and are deviating ever more from being mistaken for devices that can be used for actual productive work. So Microsoft lost the mobile handset/OS race.. so far. I'm not encouraged that any of the reasoning in this article represents nails in MS's coffin.
- bitL 9y ago
  The main argument is economical; desktop computers are stale (well, thanks AMD for stirring it up recently a bit), most people now treat computers as home appliances that need replacement once in 5-10 years. In mobile, market still grows (even if showing signs of saturation), there is still a year-to-year progress making newer models appealing and there are more mobile devices that computers with faster replacement rate. So what MS was getting on new end user licenses is lost; they lost mobile as well; the only move left are subscriptions which individual users hate and businesses love.
tw04 9y ago
How many times are pundits going to keep repeating that cellphones/tablets are going to kill off laptops and desktops before they realize how ridiculous that is? The only one that has a remote chance of killing either one at this point is Microsoft themselves through continuum and X64 code running on ARM. Even then, phone horsepower is still not enough to fully replace my laptop and desktop usage. I don't see that changing anytime soon with the issues fabs are having getting to smaller process sizes.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  Doomed and killed off don't mean the same thing. Everyone in tech who isn't busy knocking down poorly constructed strawmen acknowledge that post-PC has already happened. That market is no longer expected to grow.
  - notzorbo3 9y ago
    "Doomed" to me doesn't sound like "not expected to grow". It sounds more like "expected to die off". I mean, tv sales have been dropping for the last few years, but we're not saying the tv market is doomed because we don't expect that market to die. I think a better word for "not expected to grow" is "saturated". In any case, the use of the word "doomed" is hyperbolic or at the very least ill defined scaremongering.
    - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
      The TV market as a growing interesting market for innovation is almost dead. If you are in the tech industry and looking for the next big thing, you aren't look around TVs. I really don't think many here actually read the article and instead just focused on the byline without any context.
seabird 9y ago
Windows is doomed as soon as: - there is a viable alternative to Microsoft Office on the desktop. This doesn't mean one that gets most of the way there; LibreOffice and company, Office on mobile, etc. don't quite cut it. Macro jockeys and VBA scripting are huge game changers for corporate clients, especially in the finance and accounting worlds. - common CAD software has been entirely ported to a new platform and has complete feature parity. Considering how conservative engineering/manufacturing firms can be, this will likely never happen. No large engineering corporation will ever risk, or run the risk of ever having to run the risk, of even the slightest of hiccups in a large software migration. The only big swinger even making an attempt in this department is Siemens NX, and even we're still quite far out from feature parity for even that single package. - Active Directory has a viable counterpart for a competing operating system. Some people are trying, none are truly succeeding. Those three points alone are enough to prop up Windows for the next couple decades. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of Windows, Microsoft, their business practices, or many of their ideas on how things should be done. However, it drives me up the fucking wall when people make dumbass claims that Windows will die within any reasonable timeframe (20-30 years). EDIT: As a quick clarification, I bring up CAD not because it attracts a large userbase (it doesn't), but because switching away from Windows means that the manufacturing base of the entire world will undergo a massive change that could prove fatal in many ways. This means that any company with a significant CAD userbase will be using Windows, even if the HR, IT, etc. doesn't, in an attempt to consolidate overhead. This also means that many companies that work with engineering/manufacturing companies will stick with it for compatibility's sake. Many people are commenting that CAD/manufacturing doesn't account for many users, but that's beside the major implication. Engineering and manufacturing customers alone could ensure at least a workable level of Windows support, all while indoctrinating most of their employees in to Microsoft's ecosystem.
- optimuspaul 9y ago
  I don't disagree with your thesis, but I think that your bullet points are weak. But I do think that is illustrates the real point. It's going to take a lot of little things to change before windows is doomed. However, I do see it as a possibility that windows being doomed as a consumer OS might happen in our lifetime. As more things move to service oriented and more devices become connected it's very plausible that the majority drop their desktops and laptops and rely on mobile and chrombook level devices.
rectang 9y ago
As a developer, my interests are in maximizing the value of my skills. I want my expertise to be applicable across multiple platforms; I want projects which I develop to be portable across multiple platforms; I wish to minimize the amount of pointless superficial interface information I must learn as platforms rise and fall and instead focus on deepening my comprehension of computer science fundamentals. I hate that the platform vendors cannot ally themselves with those interests and must instead always attempt to lock developers in, damaging us economically and wasting our time and human potential. When a vendor suffers because their lock-in attempts falter, I can't help but feel schadenfreude. Now, if only their competition were consistently better...
tech2 9y ago
Every time I see headlines like these (likewise regarding Mac OS etc.) I'm left wondering if people realise where the software for these platforms come from. Without Mac OS there'd be no iOS apps (or at least, many fewer). And without Windows there'd be many fewer Xbox and likely Android apps too. Non-mobile computing is needed until (at the very least) the bulk of development for mobile is done _on_ mobile (hint: I doubt that will happen any time soon).
- noxToken 9y ago
  This is what I don't understand. I understand that most consumer activities (e.g. mail, social, search) can be achieved on mobile without missing a beat. Static content and most dynamic content have been solved for mobile devices for a while. What they seem to miss is that any substantive work is a hassle to complete on mobile. If you ignore the lag from the CPU or memory constraints, the interface is just not conducive for working. Who wants to edit text documents or spreadsheets, used a shell, or edit code on a 5 inch screen? Who wants to use a soft keyboard for any non-trivial amount of work? It's not that it can't be done; there are much more attractive options readily available. There there's the argument about connecting mobile devices to monitors, using adapters/bluetooth for peripheral devices, and thin client setups. If that's the case, why don't you grab a cheap laptop? Mobile is gimping you at that point.
  - jhoechtl 9y ago
    Once you accept the fact that the meme of the dying desktop and mobile only comes from people who are "creative" by answering mails/reacting on social media and dragging things from A to B, you will quickly understand that the desktop on which most of the grunt work gets still done will still be there for a long time.
- zeveb 9y ago
  > Without Mac OS there'd be no iOS apps (or at least, many fewer). And without Windows there'd be many fewer Xbox and likely Android apps too. One can develop Android apps just fine on Linux. It's a superior experience to Windows or macOS IMHO. Honestly, I find the modern Linux desktops friendlier to non-power-users than modern macOS or Windows.
romanovcode 9y ago
You might want to add "and 2017 is the year of Linux desktop" as long as you're at it.
diego_moita 9y ago
No it isn't, this is bullshit. As long as finance managers want to download their financial data from SharePoint to Excel, their reports generated on Crystal Reports and edited on Word and as long as finance managers are the ones paying for new software and computers then both Windows and Microsoft have a bright future ahead. It is called synergy. The same "walled garden" approach that Apple uses for consumer market is working very well for Microsoft on the enterprise market.
jackyinger 9y ago
I'd contend that the desktop OS in general is doomed. Besides a mention of iOS's aid to MacOS's popularity all the author's arguments apply to mac (and Linux desktop).
TYPE_FASTER 9y ago
If Microsoft hadn't created Azure and started shifting their efforts to be an enterprise development company a few years ago, they'd be the next RIM. But...even if Windows goes away, there's AWS and Google Cloud, but the ability to migrate existing legacy enterprise applications into Azure, as well as leverage new features like machine learning and cognitive vision, will let Microsoft stay alive. How successful will it be in the long term is the question.
madmulita 9y ago
Off topic: Microsoft was not only accused of monopolistic moves, it was found guilty.
ngold 9y ago
Windows is doomed as soon as .exe is. But really how did it make it so far?
gh0S7 9y ago
I do agree with the article, but it doesn't seems that Windows will be going very soon. Too many applications are still dependent on it, and PC gamers, both casual and hardcore, generally prefer using Windows and are a large portion of the market.
almonj 9y ago
Mobile is not a major threat to desktops, they serve different purposes. People who have desktop PCs aren't getting rid of them because they bought a phone or tablet. Even though Microsoft has questionable practices they still have the best desktop OS. This is clickbait trash journalism.
nunez 9y ago
Windows was doomed in 2009, 2005, 2001, 1993, etc. I think the rule is if you're marked as doomed incorrectly more than three times over the course of a decade, then you are too big to fail and are, by definition, not doomed.
JackFr 9y ago
It feels like Microsoft is entering the next stage of the IBM lifecycle -- technology eliminates the value of the monopoly, and they're forced to find new ways to make money, while they coast for a few years on market inertia. Ultimately MS (like IBM) will not to be able to sell anything outside the C-suite, because anyone closer to the technology knows there are better cheaper solutions. (But Xboxes...hmmmmm...maybe my view is a little to simplistic.)
- mistermann 9y ago
  Have you heard of Azure?
  - swagtricker 9y ago
    Yes. An compared to AWS it's been immature, buggy, unreliable, and caters to the admin acting like a button mashing monkey that tries to solve problems by turning things on/off in the Web UI instead of using a programmable repeatable, scriptable "environment as source". Hopefully, others have had better experiences, but so far I'm wanting to run away screaming.
    - mistermann 9y ago
      > instead of using a programmable repeatable, scriptable "environment as source". https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/azure-resource-manager/resource-group-authoring-templates https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/azure-resource-manage... Thanks for the time capsule experience though, sometimes I miss the legendary zealotry of Slashdot.
DanHulton 9y ago
I dunno, I'm going to keep upgrading my Windows box and version so long as it stays the primary gaming platform. Consoles are fine and all, I even have a couple modern ones, but there's still no replacement for mouse & keyboard for hi-fidelity input, and the only desktop that lets you play the vast majority of m&k games is Windows. That'll keep it in the home, and AD & Office will keep it in the workplace. Seems not so doomed to me.
payne92 9y ago
This article rehashes the well-known challenges and missteps that have made Windows much less relevant. It totally misses the scale and intertia around Windows in the enterprise. It may not show up as the hot platform for new applications on HN, but it's not remotely "doomed".
nikolay 9y ago
No, actually. Today's Windows is more attractive than ever. As a developer, I even prefer it - unlike macOS, it has WSL, and you see it's evolving quickly unlike macOS, which feels dead. Also, given .NET and PowerShell run on Linux and macOS, they are a worthy investment. I only wish Chocolately had a vibrant community as Homebrew - it lags behind, and even for basic features, you have to cough up money.

40 points by mcone 9y ago

Meh, Google doesn't really offer much by way of a platform for development (sure, I know some here code on Chromebooks) and severely risks demonopolisation; Apple will have to pull some magic out of the bag if it wants to stem the flow of developers and professionals leaving its platform and Windows is still on a significant number of productive workplace desktops (such as mine here). Phones are not computers and are deviating ever more from being mistaken for devices that can be used for actual productive work. So Microsoft lost the mobile handset/OS race.. so far. I'm not encouraged that any of the reasoning in this article represents nails in MS's coffin.

bitL 9y ago
The main argument is economical; desktop computers are stale (well, thanks AMD for stirring it up recently a bit), most people now treat computers as home appliances that need replacement once in 5-10 years. In mobile, market still grows (even if showing signs of saturation), there is still a year-to-year progress making newer models appealing and there are more mobile devices that computers with faster replacement rate. So what MS was getting on new end user licenses is lost; they lost mobile as well; the only move left are subscriptions which individual users hate and businesses love.

tw04 9y ago

How many times are pundits going to keep repeating that cellphones/tablets are going to kill off laptops and desktops before they realize how ridiculous that is? The only one that has a remote chance of killing either one at this point is Microsoft themselves through continuum and X64 code running on ARM. Even then, phone horsepower is still not enough to fully replace my laptop and desktop usage. I don't see that changing anytime soon with the issues fabs are having getting to smaller process sizes.

seanmcdirmid 9y ago
Doomed and killed off don't mean the same thing. Everyone in tech who isn't busy knocking down poorly constructed strawmen acknowledge that post-PC has already happened. That market is no longer expected to grow.
- notzorbo3 9y ago
  "Doomed" to me doesn't sound like "not expected to grow". It sounds more like "expected to die off". I mean, tv sales have been dropping for the last few years, but we're not saying the tv market is doomed because we don't expect that market to die. I think a better word for "not expected to grow" is "saturated". In any case, the use of the word "doomed" is hyperbolic or at the very least ill defined scaremongering.
  - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
    The TV market as a growing interesting market for innovation is almost dead. If you are in the tech industry and looking for the next big thing, you aren't look around TVs. I really don't think many here actually read the article and instead just focused on the byline without any context.

seabird 9y ago

Windows is doomed as soon as: - there is a viable alternative to Microsoft Office on the desktop. This doesn't mean one that gets most of the way there; LibreOffice and company, Office on mobile, etc. don't quite cut it. Macro jockeys and VBA scripting are huge game changers for corporate clients, especially in the finance and accounting worlds. - common CAD software has been entirely ported to a new platform and has complete feature parity. Considering how conservative engineering/manufacturing firms can be, this will likely never happen. No large engineering corporation will ever risk, or run the risk of ever having to run the risk, of even the slightest of hiccups in a large software migration. The only big swinger even making an attempt in this department is Siemens NX, and even we're still quite far out from feature parity for even that single package. - Active Directory has a viable counterpart for a competing operating system. Some people are trying, none are truly succeeding. Those three points alone are enough to prop up Windows for the next couple decades. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of Windows, Microsoft, their business practices, or many of their ideas on how things should be done. However, it drives me up the fucking wall when people make dumbass claims that Windows will die within any reasonable timeframe (20-30 years). EDIT: As a quick clarification, I bring up CAD not because it attracts a large userbase (it doesn't), but because switching away from Windows means that the manufacturing base of the entire world will undergo a massive change that could prove fatal in many ways. This means that any company with a significant CAD userbase will be using Windows, even if the HR, IT, etc. doesn't, in an attempt to consolidate overhead. This also means that many companies that work with engineering/manufacturing companies will stick with it for compatibility's sake. Many people are commenting that CAD/manufacturing doesn't account for many users, but that's beside the major implication. Engineering and manufacturing customers alone could ensure at least a workable level of Windows support, all while indoctrinating most of their employees in to Microsoft's ecosystem.

optimuspaul 9y ago
I don't disagree with your thesis, but I think that your bullet points are weak. But I do think that is illustrates the real point. It's going to take a lot of little things to change before windows is doomed. However, I do see it as a possibility that windows being doomed as a consumer OS might happen in our lifetime. As more things move to service oriented and more devices become connected it's very plausible that the majority drop their desktops and laptops and rely on mobile and chrombook level devices.

rectang 9y ago

As a developer, my interests are in maximizing the value of my skills. I want my expertise to be applicable across multiple platforms; I want projects which I develop to be portable across multiple platforms; I wish to minimize the amount of pointless superficial interface information I must learn as platforms rise and fall and instead focus on deepening my comprehension of computer science fundamentals. I hate that the platform vendors cannot ally themselves with those interests and must instead always attempt to lock developers in, damaging us economically and wasting our time and human potential. When a vendor suffers because their lock-in attempts falter, I can't help but feel schadenfreude. Now, if only their competition were consistently better...

tech2 9y ago

Every time I see headlines like these (likewise regarding Mac OS etc.) I'm left wondering if people realise where the software for these platforms come from. Without Mac OS there'd be no iOS apps (or at least, many fewer). And without Windows there'd be many fewer Xbox and likely Android apps too. Non-mobile computing is needed until (at the very least) the bulk of development for mobile is done _on_ mobile (hint: I doubt that will happen any time soon).

noxToken 9y ago
This is what I don't understand. I understand that most consumer activities (e.g. mail, social, search) can be achieved on mobile without missing a beat. Static content and most dynamic content have been solved for mobile devices for a while. What they seem to miss is that any substantive work is a hassle to complete on mobile. If you ignore the lag from the CPU or memory constraints, the interface is just not conducive for working. Who wants to edit text documents or spreadsheets, used a shell, or edit code on a 5 inch screen? Who wants to use a soft keyboard for any non-trivial amount of work? It's not that it can't be done; there are much more attractive options readily available. There there's the argument about connecting mobile devices to monitors, using adapters/bluetooth for peripheral devices, and thin client setups. If that's the case, why don't you grab a cheap laptop? Mobile is gimping you at that point.
- jhoechtl 9y ago
  Once you accept the fact that the meme of the dying desktop and mobile only comes from people who are "creative" by answering mails/reacting on social media and dragging things from A to B, you will quickly understand that the desktop on which most of the grunt work gets still done will still be there for a long time.
zeveb 9y ago
> Without Mac OS there'd be no iOS apps (or at least, many fewer). And without Windows there'd be many fewer Xbox and likely Android apps too. One can develop Android apps just fine on Linux. It's a superior experience to Windows or macOS IMHO. Honestly, I find the modern Linux desktops friendlier to non-power-users than modern macOS or Windows.

romanovcode 9y ago

You might want to add "and 2017 is the year of Linux desktop" as long as you're at it.

diego_moita 9y ago

No it isn't, this is bullshit. As long as finance managers want to download their financial data from SharePoint to Excel, their reports generated on Crystal Reports and edited on Word and as long as finance managers are the ones paying for new software and computers then both Windows and Microsoft have a bright future ahead. It is called synergy. The same "walled garden" approach that Apple uses for consumer market is working very well for Microsoft on the enterprise market.

jackyinger 9y ago

I'd contend that the desktop OS in general is doomed. Besides a mention of iOS's aid to MacOS's popularity all the author's arguments apply to mac (and Linux desktop).

TYPE_FASTER 9y ago

If Microsoft hadn't created Azure and started shifting their efforts to be an enterprise development company a few years ago, they'd be the next RIM. But...even if Windows goes away, there's AWS and Google Cloud, but the ability to migrate existing legacy enterprise applications into Azure, as well as leverage new features like machine learning and cognitive vision, will let Microsoft stay alive. How successful will it be in the long term is the question.

madmulita 9y ago

Off topic: Microsoft was not only accused of monopolistic moves, it was found guilty.

ngold 9y ago

Windows is doomed as soon as .exe is. But really how did it make it so far?

gh0S7 9y ago

I do agree with the article, but it doesn't seems that Windows will be going very soon. Too many applications are still dependent on it, and PC gamers, both casual and hardcore, generally prefer using Windows and are a large portion of the market.

almonj 9y ago

Mobile is not a major threat to desktops, they serve different purposes. People who have desktop PCs aren't getting rid of them because they bought a phone or tablet. Even though Microsoft has questionable practices they still have the best desktop OS. This is clickbait trash journalism.

nunez 9y ago

Windows was doomed in 2009, 2005, 2001, 1993, etc. I think the rule is if you're marked as doomed incorrectly more than three times over the course of a decade, then you are too big to fail and are, by definition, not doomed.

JackFr 9y ago

It feels like Microsoft is entering the next stage of the IBM lifecycle -- technology eliminates the value of the monopoly, and they're forced to find new ways to make money, while they coast for a few years on market inertia. Ultimately MS (like IBM) will not to be able to sell anything outside the C-suite, because anyone closer to the technology knows there are better cheaper solutions. (But Xboxes...hmmmmm...maybe my view is a little to simplistic.)

mistermann 9y ago
Have you heard of Azure?
- swagtricker 9y ago
  Yes. An compared to AWS it's been immature, buggy, unreliable, and caters to the admin acting like a button mashing monkey that tries to solve problems by turning things on/off in the Web UI instead of using a programmable repeatable, scriptable "environment as source". Hopefully, others have had better experiences, but so far I'm wanting to run away screaming.
  - mistermann 9y ago
    > instead of using a programmable repeatable, scriptable "environment as source". https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/azure-resource-manager/resource-group-authoring-templates https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/azure-resource-manage... Thanks for the time capsule experience though, sometimes I miss the legendary zealotry of Slashdot.

DanHulton 9y ago

I dunno, I'm going to keep upgrading my Windows box and version so long as it stays the primary gaming platform. Consoles are fine and all, I even have a couple modern ones, but there's still no replacement for mouse & keyboard for hi-fidelity input, and the only desktop that lets you play the vast majority of m&k games is Windows. That'll keep it in the home, and AD & Office will keep it in the workplace. Seems not so doomed to me.

payne92 9y ago

This article rehashes the well-known challenges and missteps that have made Windows much less relevant. It totally misses the scale and intertia around Windows in the enterprise. It may not show up as the hot platform for new applications on HN, but it's not remotely "doomed".

nikolay 9y ago

No, actually. Today's Windows is more attractive than ever. As a developer, I even prefer it - unlike macOS, it has WSL, and you see it's evolving quickly unlike macOS, which feels dead. Also, given .NET and PowerShell run on Linux and macOS, they are a worthy investment. I only wish Chocolately had a vibrant community as Homebrew - it lags behind, and even for basic features, you have to cough up money.