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Aging Japan Wants Automation, Not Immigration

114 points by mattnumbe 9y ago

oculusthrift 9y ago
I think this is a brilliant solution for them because of the way their country is setup. (Strong culture with extremely homogeneous population and low birth rate) I really do think a lot of what makes japan special would go away with too much immigration. That being said, America is the opposite and automation would hurt us and so would restricting immigration.
- Moshe_Silnorin 9y ago
  Why would automation hurt us?
  - linksnapzz 9y ago
    Heck, how does restricting immigration hurt us?
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
  - oculusthrift 9y ago
    a massive part of our population do no-brain jobs that could easily be automated. do you want 30 percent unemployment?
    - zanny 9y ago
      Yes? The fruitful gains of production don't go anywhere in that scenario. Fire the redundant, replace them with robots, give them a UBI, a library, and a public education that drives them towards passions rather than towards being a good factory drone.
      - oculusthrift 9y ago
        if you really think that's going to happen in the same country where people violently oppose even providing health care to people... i got a new altcoin for you to buy
- matt4077 9y ago
  What makes Japan special is a 20-year stagflation of a society rapidly ageing, with absolutely no attempts to empower the few young people remaining.
nopinsight 9y ago
An idea: Some blue-collar workers displaced by factory automation could be retrained to maintain and repair robots used in healthcare and home assistance. As developed nations age, there will be increasing needs for healthcare workers including those for home assistance. Since the supply of people wanting the jobs might be limited and many blue-collar workers tend to balk at taking pink-collar jobs, robots could be the intermediary that satisfies both the supply for services and demand for jobs.
- nkrisc 9y ago
  The notion of retaining workers to maintain the robots that replaced them reminds me of a quip from the sci-fi book series The Expanse. One of the characters, a space vessel's engineer, remarks that hundreds of years ago on Earth (today) he'd be a nuclear physicist, but in his time he's just a mechanic.
zxcvvcxz 9y ago
Makes a lot of sense. Why risk their cultural homogeneity - something clearly valued by the majority of Japan - if there are technological solutions to increasing productivity? Edit - why the downvotes?
- mc32 9y ago
  I think people tend to project their western cultural framework onto Japan and see it not fitting well. Much of east Asia is very internal-looking (China was the middle kingdom for a reason). They tend to keep to themselves as a society and value their values from their perspective --not as self-critical as other societies, in some ways. It's something anathema to a number of westerners. So of course to some people it looks like Japan (or east Asia in general) is not "sharing" in their wealth with others as your implicit agreement is kind of a non-sequitur for some people. Going on a tangent here, but for example, in India, Dalits will at times use English but primarily western philosophy to argue their position vis a vis the dominant castes because they lend themselves better to examine these questions.
- TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
  I agree completely with you. I think you may have been downvoted because you implied that multiculturalism isn't a panacea everywhere. Japan's culture doesn't demand perpetual exponential growth like a lot of capitalistic societies do, thus racial and cultural diversity isn't needed to provide a constantly growing, continually deleveraged workforce like the US does. A homogeneous culture provides a common identity and lowers conflict and miscommunication during interaction. They have low economic inequality and high quality of life. I see very little reason why things should change very much for them.
- flukus 9y ago
  > Edit - why the downvotes? Praising cultural homogeneity isn't PC. They don't realize there are very few truly multi-cultural countries, even for most that say they are multi-cultural, multi-ethnic would be a much more accurate description. True multi-culturalism typically ends up with cultural ghettos and all the pros and cons that they bring.
- Markoff 9y ago
tanilama 9y ago
Automation is no cure for Japan. Their influence is waning rapidly, in many sectors. I would say that, with an aging population, Japan is turning into a stale country, culture wise and economy wise alike.
- smallnamespace 9y ago
  That's probably true in many dimensions, but maybe Japanese society values stability and conformity higher than innovation or global influence? Your implicit value judgment very much reflects a Western, linear, 'progress' based view of history, one which not all cultures share.
- jackcosgrove 9y ago
  It seems Japan is entering a new Edo period, inward-looking and isolated.
  - jpatokal 9y ago
    Quite the opposite. Japan has never had more tourists than today: https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/embed/?s=japantouarr&v=201708191014v&d1=19170101&d2=20171231&h=300&w=600 https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/embed/?s=japantouarr&v... Or more foreign residents: http://stats-japan.com/t/kiji/11639 http://stats-japan.com/t/kiji/11639 The change is particularly visible in the larger cities: for example, it's increasingly rare to find ethnic Japanese behind the counter at a convenience store.
- fiblye 9y ago
  I think the average Japanese person doesn't care about how stale outsiders think they are, and they certainly don't feel like they need a "cure." If anything, society here is reverting more to a norm after being in a massive economic bubble. Really, it's honestly kind of freaky how often I see western media articles about how Japan needs to act now, or they're doomed to fail and their population will vanish. Yet I see nothing about Bulgaria losing 25% of its population in 25 years or Belgium needing to reevaluate its global image for fear of irrelevancy.
irishasaurus 9y ago
Hasn't this been the case since the 1980's? http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/manufacturing-innovation-lessons-from-the-japanese-auto-industry/ http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/manufacturing-innovation-...
neptunespear 9y ago
Automation has changed from when Japan was on top. The focus is now on software and open collaboration in a globalized society, not hardware built by factory workers with proprietary standards (looking at you, FeliCa) China may surpass Japan in the automation/AI sphere. Lots of young, English-speaking, western-educated workers, plus the PRC has already innovated so much in manufacturing, shipbuilding, etc., and an ecosystem willing to splash cash on daring startups (albeit a lot of that is state funding, and you need CCP connections to come up in the Chinese startup world) in ways that leave Japan in the dust. Look at how Nvidia is working in China, look at the rise of Aliyun, Baidu Cloud and Tencent Cloud. The only Japanese companies I know that are geared for automation for the new economy are companies like Mujin, LeapMind and Preferred Networks. As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population; almost zero immigration; and roughly the same economic policy as from the 1980, is nothing short of a Herculean endeavor. I wonder what Japan is going to do when the population decline really gets in gear around 2040.
- smallnamespace 9y ago
  Why is total GDP the correct metric, if per capita GDP is on the rise?
  - neptunespear 9y ago
    The provincial government in my home province of British Columbia, Canada, is developing a genuine progress indicator (GPI) to replace the GDP metric, which was the idea of the BC Green Party. The point made here is that GDP is a very imperfect solution. Christy Clark may have boasted about BC's booming economy by pointing to GDP numbers, but do they explain the whole story? I know that's neither here nor there, however.
  - ShabbosGoy 9y ago
    Per capita GDP will rise if population remains unchanged or declines.
- mc32 9y ago
  >As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population... I think they have done an admirable job to be the no. 3 economy in the world despite neo-liberal economics --as they say, even Fukuyama is no longer a Fukuyama-ist and I think they are working hard at making a soft landing for their post neo-liberal economy, whatever shape that takes. We all know consumerism only gets us so far and what lies beyond is still amorphous. They're trying to give it some shape.
mc32 9y ago
Japan is at the forefront of a post-industrial society. Much of the rest of the west would be in a similar position, if not for imported labor or outsourcing labor. China will be in a similar spot soon. Eventually all of the world will be where they are. The things and lessons they learn and discover will be useful to other mature economies soon enough. The headway will make them leaders in innovating in this area of the economy. Automation will only keep on advancing and displacing jobs --Japan's workforce and jobs are in sync in this regard and if they thread it right, the reduction in human jobs will diminish with the number of able workers.
- surfmike 9y ago
  There seem to be two contradictory narratives: one, that rich Western societies are aging and need to make up for a big shortage of workers; and two, that automation has killed and will kill millions of jobs. Probably both trends are true, but each one pulls in the opposite direction for the demand for labor. Maybe things aren't as bad as people fear on either side.
  - theseatoms 9y ago
    Economic equilibrium does tend to render most of those types of extrapolative predictions moot.
    - Tsagadai 9y ago
      Nothing in economic history has ever indicated that economics is equilibrium seeking. Capitalism is all about growth and equilibrium is stagnation.
  - hiram112 9y ago
    It's more like two opposing narrators: 1. Employers: we need more immigration, not enough workers (willing to work for the shitty wages I want to pay). 2. Workers: automation is kill all the jobs (that pay well, but require few skills).
    - 9y ago
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
temp-dude-87844 9y ago
Japan has never been one to shy away from high-tech industries, and as the article notes, aesthetic sensibilities towards kawaii robots make this a natural progression for a high-tech, ethnically homogeneous, aging nation. Although Japan was once an imperial power, its reconciliation with its past has not included a transition to a multicultural post-colonial state promoted by intellectuals and practiced by widespread (and largely economic) migration from former colonies to the home country at the seat of power, as it has occurred in the case of most other imperial powers. The difference being, the places where this transition did take place had been colonial empires for longer, and had for centuries notions of nationhood derived from shared values more so than shared ethnicity.
- matt4077 9y ago
  Germany comes to mind as a counterexample: a homogenous nation until the late 1950s, with no colonies to speak of, and jus sanguinis. Yet it transition to a functioning, diverse society today. And Japan is arguably paying a steep price for keeping their blood oh-so-pure: it's a society frozen in tradition and fear, with an economy in what is essentially a 20-year recession. Making robots care for the elderly will just be another step in the dehumanisation of that society, indeed. It's the coup the grace for a generation that replaced social life with "being in the office" and love life with blow-up dolls and pornography.
  - mc32 9y ago
    I think you're projecting western values on Japan. While we may see "dehumanization" they don't. Where you see a pornography fetish, they see it as an extension of their sexuality. For them it's progress. They have valued tradition and will continue to do so. It's not an ephemeral value they hold. Germany found a different path. It does not necessarily mean it's the one true path. And, long term, all societies will face the same issues. Some sooner, some much later --but face it they will.
    - matt4077 9y ago
      I'm pretty sure the need for social interactions with other people is somewhat central to being human, and not a trait of culture. That's why humans are often called "social animals". The suicide rate in japan being 3x European levels also seems to point at something being amiss, although that may indeed be an artefact of culture.
cylinder 9y ago
Common sense. A large population is going to be a big liability going forward. The Anglosphere hasn't figured this out yet.
mikekchar 9y ago
This is an opinion piece backed up with practically no information whatsoever. If you want to know about immigration policy in Japan, you need look no further Japan's ministry of foreign affairs website. For example, here are the categories where you can get a long term visa [0] You will notice there is a points system [1]. You need 70 points to get in. A degree gives you 10 points. A salary of ~$100K gives you 40 points. Being under 30 gives you 15 points. Having 5 years of experience gives you 10 points. N1 on JLTP gives you 15 points. I mean, it's ridiculous. And this is a 5 year visa with relaxed permanent residence requirements, ability to sponsor your parents, ability to work in any field (even jobs that aren't related to your skill set!!!). The list goes on! And if by some incredibly unfortunate circumstance you can't qualify for that, there are still over 10 categories where you basically only need a relevant university degree and a job offer for a 3 year visa. And if that isn't enough, you can start a company in Japan with about ~$50K and sponsor a business visa for yourself. My wife is Japanese and I'm here on a spousal visa. The application process took 1 week and was free. I am also eligible for relaxed permanent residence status. Seriously, compare this to your home country and then come back and tell me that Japan doesn't want immigration. Now if you want to know why Japan doesn't have a lot of immigration, it's because it is difficult for foreigners to live here if they can't speak Japanese and/or they can't accept Japanese culture. But as far as the government is concerned, the red carpet has been rolled out for a long time. If you have an established company in many foreign countries and wish to open a branch office in Japan (so that you can transfer people here), the government will even give you free assistance! [0] - http://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/visit/visa/long/index.html http://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/visit/visa/long/index.html [1] - http://www.immi-moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/pdf/point_calculation_forms.pdf http://www.immi-moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/pdf/point_calculat...
- zcbenz 9y ago
  What's more, if you get 80 points, you can apply for permanent residency after staying Japan for only 1 year.
- jpatokal 9y ago
  Japan's primary problem, though, is not a lack of skilled professionals (although as someone involved in hiring bilingual IT professionals there, I can assure you that's a problem too), but a lack of unskilled/low-skilled workers to work in agriculture, nursing, etc. And Japan is not at all keen on this type of immigration. As a simple example, Japan invited a bunch of Filipino nurses to work in Japan for a while, and they could stay if they completed the Japanese national nursing exam... in Japanese: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/pinoyabroad/253140/13-pinoy-nurses-pass-tough-japan-nursing-exams/story/ http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/pinoyabroad/253140/13-pi... Surprise surprise, the pass rate was 8%, and many of those who passed have returned home: http://news.abs-cbn.com/global-filipino/04/13/16/some-filipino-health-workers-turn-backs-on-opportunities-in-japan http://news.abs-cbn.com/global-filipino/04/13/16/some-filipi... Instead, there's ever-increasing abuse of various "trainee" and "language student" visa programs to cycle in and out what amounts to indentured labor, with zero prospects for actually staying in the country: http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/travel/welcome-to-the-worlds-worst-internship/news-story/eeda395f79c84f4afde4744837724505 http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/travel/welcome-to-th...
0xbear 9y ago
This explains a lot of recent moves by SoftBank.
ericdykstra 9y ago
Here's a more in-depth look at the issue of immigration vs automation as it relates to Japan, from 2 Japanese economists: http://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/economy/pt20141030182705.html http://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/economy/pt2014103018... My commentary with support from that article follows: A country with the population of Japan has no chance of maintaining a higher absolute GDP than countries with multiples of their population and more land to expand population. A policy to try to maintain their status in the world in terms of GDP is just silly. If, however, Japan is more interested in the well-being of their population than some sort of international power-play, then this is the route to go. Population growth has no correlation to GDP per capita, so what's the point of increasing immigration of low-skilled workers? The upside is minimal, and the potential downside is unknown and unbounded. I've been living in Japan for a little over 2 years now, and haven't talked to anyone who is worried about the long-term prospects of Japan's economy. There are structural changes that can and probably should be made, as outlined in the link above, but the country is not on some death-spiral like a lot of Western media would have you believe. Is Japan a magical land of far-advanced technology, delicious food, safe and clean cities, beautiful countrysides, and amazing public transportation? Actually, yes; the "far-advanced technology" part just doesn't extend to mass-market consumer electronics in the same way any more.
- rdtsc 9y ago
  > Is Japan a magical land of far-advanced technology Is the technology really that far advanced. I understand it was in the 80s maybe? None of the devices I have are made by Japanese companies. None of the software I use is developed in Japan primarily. My car is but that's about it, but I picked it because of reliability not because of high tech features.
  - RandomInteger4 9y ago
    They have computerized toilets, so compared to what I see in most of the United States, I'd have to say yes.
  - ericdykstra 9y ago
    Did you miss the part right after what you quoted? > the "far-advanced technology" part just doesn't extend to mass-market consumer electronics in the same way any more. Japan has leading technology companies in many industries that consumers just don't care about.
petre 9y ago
At least it's better than paying for immigrants that forced their way into your country as the Germans are doing now.
- StudyAnimal 9y ago
  Go away racist. Refugees need a safe place and germany needs fresh foreign blood to keep its society running. It's a win win. German children are going to take a long time before they start contributing and even then they will end up on Hartz IV before they accept a normal job.
  - petre 9y ago
    We'll see if it's a win-win in 30 years. I personally think the Japanse model is better largely because it doesn't create social problems and cultural rifts in society. Also look at Switzerland and it's hardline immigration policies, which are really the result of a very healthy respresentative democracy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_immigration_referendum,_February_2014 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_immigration_referendum,_...
  - nostromo123 9y ago
    Please do not post emotional beliefs as facts! Point 1: many migrants are not "refugees". Period. Point 2: ok, so German children will take a long time before they start contributing -- agree. What about some untrained analphabet with a different culture, who also happens to reject working with women? PS. Applying the label "racist" to anyone who disagrees with you has dulled its sting, I'm afraid :-)
  - derping69 9y ago
    Instead of spending billions on refugees, 75% of whom still won't be working for years, why not spend that money to get Germans to have more kids? That would actually make sense, unlike importing unskilled labor that won't be needed due to automation. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/820480/Germany-migrant-crisis-refugees-long-term-unemployment-benefits-Angela-Merkel http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/820480/Germany-migrant-c...
  - 9y ago
StudyAnimal 9y ago
"One small manufacturer insisted that immigration would dilute Japan's homogeneous society. " Good, that's exactly what Japan needs.

114 points by mattnumbe 9y ago

I think this is a brilliant solution for them because of the way their country is setup. (Strong culture with extremely homogeneous population and low birth rate) I really do think a lot of what makes japan special would go away with too much immigration. That being said, America is the opposite and automation would hurt us and so would restricting immigration.

Moshe_Silnorin 9y ago
Why would automation hurt us?
- linksnapzz 9y ago
  Heck, how does restricting immigration hurt us?
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
- oculusthrift 9y ago
  a massive part of our population do no-brain jobs that could easily be automated. do you want 30 percent unemployment?
  - zanny 9y ago
    Yes? The fruitful gains of production don't go anywhere in that scenario. Fire the redundant, replace them with robots, give them a UBI, a library, and a public education that drives them towards passions rather than towards being a good factory drone.
    - oculusthrift 9y ago
      if you really think that's going to happen in the same country where people violently oppose even providing health care to people... i got a new altcoin for you to buy
matt4077 9y ago
What makes Japan special is a 20-year stagflation of a society rapidly ageing, with absolutely no attempts to empower the few young people remaining.

nopinsight 9y ago

An idea: Some blue-collar workers displaced by factory automation could be retrained to maintain and repair robots used in healthcare and home assistance. As developed nations age, there will be increasing needs for healthcare workers including those for home assistance. Since the supply of people wanting the jobs might be limited and many blue-collar workers tend to balk at taking pink-collar jobs, robots could be the intermediary that satisfies both the supply for services and demand for jobs.

nkrisc 9y ago
The notion of retaining workers to maintain the robots that replaced them reminds me of a quip from the sci-fi book series The Expanse. One of the characters, a space vessel's engineer, remarks that hundreds of years ago on Earth (today) he'd be a nuclear physicist, but in his time he's just a mechanic.

zxcvvcxz 9y ago

Makes a lot of sense. Why risk their cultural homogeneity - something clearly valued by the majority of Japan - if there are technological solutions to increasing productivity? Edit - why the downvotes?

mc32 9y ago
I think people tend to project their western cultural framework onto Japan and see it not fitting well. Much of east Asia is very internal-looking (China was the middle kingdom for a reason). They tend to keep to themselves as a society and value their values from their perspective --not as self-critical as other societies, in some ways. It's something anathema to a number of westerners. So of course to some people it looks like Japan (or east Asia in general) is not "sharing" in their wealth with others as your implicit agreement is kind of a non-sequitur for some people. Going on a tangent here, but for example, in India, Dalits will at times use English but primarily western philosophy to argue their position vis a vis the dominant castes because they lend themselves better to examine these questions.
TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
I agree completely with you. I think you may have been downvoted because you implied that multiculturalism isn't a panacea everywhere. Japan's culture doesn't demand perpetual exponential growth like a lot of capitalistic societies do, thus racial and cultural diversity isn't needed to provide a constantly growing, continually deleveraged workforce like the US does. A homogeneous culture provides a common identity and lowers conflict and miscommunication during interaction. They have low economic inequality and high quality of life. I see very little reason why things should change very much for them.
flukus 9y ago
> Edit - why the downvotes? Praising cultural homogeneity isn't PC. They don't realize there are very few truly multi-cultural countries, even for most that say they are multi-cultural, multi-ethnic would be a much more accurate description. True multi-culturalism typically ends up with cultural ghettos and all the pros and cons that they bring.
Markoff 9y ago

tanilama 9y ago

Automation is no cure for Japan. Their influence is waning rapidly, in many sectors. I would say that, with an aging population, Japan is turning into a stale country, culture wise and economy wise alike.

smallnamespace 9y ago
That's probably true in many dimensions, but maybe Japanese society values stability and conformity higher than innovation or global influence? Your implicit value judgment very much reflects a Western, linear, 'progress' based view of history, one which not all cultures share.
jackcosgrove 9y ago
It seems Japan is entering a new Edo period, inward-looking and isolated.
- jpatokal 9y ago
  Quite the opposite. Japan has never had more tourists than today: https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/embed/?s=japantouarr&v=201708191014v&d1=19170101&d2=20171231&h=300&w=600 https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/embed/?s=japantouarr&v... Or more foreign residents: http://stats-japan.com/t/kiji/11639 http://stats-japan.com/t/kiji/11639 The change is particularly visible in the larger cities: for example, it's increasingly rare to find ethnic Japanese behind the counter at a convenience store.
fiblye 9y ago
I think the average Japanese person doesn't care about how stale outsiders think they are, and they certainly don't feel like they need a "cure." If anything, society here is reverting more to a norm after being in a massive economic bubble. Really, it's honestly kind of freaky how often I see western media articles about how Japan needs to act now, or they're doomed to fail and their population will vanish. Yet I see nothing about Bulgaria losing 25% of its population in 25 years or Belgium needing to reevaluate its global image for fear of irrelevancy.

irishasaurus 9y ago

Hasn't this been the case since the 1980's? http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/manufacturing-innovation-lessons-from-the-japanese-auto-industry/ http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/manufacturing-innovation-...

neptunespear 9y ago

Automation has changed from when Japan was on top. The focus is now on software and open collaboration in a globalized society, not hardware built by factory workers with proprietary standards (looking at you, FeliCa) China may surpass Japan in the automation/AI sphere. Lots of young, English-speaking, western-educated workers, plus the PRC has already innovated so much in manufacturing, shipbuilding, etc., and an ecosystem willing to splash cash on daring startups (albeit a lot of that is state funding, and you need CCP connections to come up in the Chinese startup world) in ways that leave Japan in the dust. Look at how Nvidia is working in China, look at the rise of Aliyun, Baidu Cloud and Tencent Cloud. The only Japanese companies I know that are geared for automation for the new economy are companies like Mujin, LeapMind and Preferred Networks. As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population; almost zero immigration; and roughly the same economic policy as from the 1980, is nothing short of a Herculean endeavor. I wonder what Japan is going to do when the population decline really gets in gear around 2040.

smallnamespace 9y ago
Why is total GDP the correct metric, if per capita GDP is on the rise?
- neptunespear 9y ago
  The provincial government in my home province of British Columbia, Canada, is developing a genuine progress indicator (GPI) to replace the GDP metric, which was the idea of the BC Green Party. The point made here is that GDP is a very imperfect solution. Christy Clark may have boasted about BC's booming economy by pointing to GDP numbers, but do they explain the whole story? I know that's neither here nor there, however.
- ShabbosGoy 9y ago
  Per capita GDP will rise if population remains unchanged or declines.
mc32 9y ago
>As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population... I think they have done an admirable job to be the no. 3 economy in the world despite neo-liberal economics --as they say, even Fukuyama is no longer a Fukuyama-ist and I think they are working hard at making a soft landing for their post neo-liberal economy, whatever shape that takes. We all know consumerism only gets us so far and what lies beyond is still amorphous. They're trying to give it some shape.

mc32 9y ago

Japan is at the forefront of a post-industrial society. Much of the rest of the west would be in a similar position, if not for imported labor or outsourcing labor. China will be in a similar spot soon. Eventually all of the world will be where they are. The things and lessons they learn and discover will be useful to other mature economies soon enough. The headway will make them leaders in innovating in this area of the economy. Automation will only keep on advancing and displacing jobs --Japan's workforce and jobs are in sync in this regard and if they thread it right, the reduction in human jobs will diminish with the number of able workers.

surfmike 9y ago
There seem to be two contradictory narratives: one, that rich Western societies are aging and need to make up for a big shortage of workers; and two, that automation has killed and will kill millions of jobs. Probably both trends are true, but each one pulls in the opposite direction for the demand for labor. Maybe things aren't as bad as people fear on either side.
- theseatoms 9y ago
  Economic equilibrium does tend to render most of those types of extrapolative predictions moot.
  - Tsagadai 9y ago
    Nothing in economic history has ever indicated that economics is equilibrium seeking. Capitalism is all about growth and equilibrium is stagnation.
- hiram112 9y ago
  It's more like two opposing narrators: 1. Employers: we need more immigration, not enough workers (willing to work for the shitty wages I want to pay). 2. Workers: automation is kill all the jobs (that pay well, but require few skills).
  - 9y ago

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

temp-dude-87844 9y ago

Japan has never been one to shy away from high-tech industries, and as the article notes, aesthetic sensibilities towards kawaii robots make this a natural progression for a high-tech, ethnically homogeneous, aging nation. Although Japan was once an imperial power, its reconciliation with its past has not included a transition to a multicultural post-colonial state promoted by intellectuals and practiced by widespread (and largely economic) migration from former colonies to the home country at the seat of power, as it has occurred in the case of most other imperial powers. The difference being, the places where this transition did take place had been colonial empires for longer, and had for centuries notions of nationhood derived from shared values more so than shared ethnicity.

matt4077 9y ago
Germany comes to mind as a counterexample: a homogenous nation until the late 1950s, with no colonies to speak of, and jus sanguinis. Yet it transition to a functioning, diverse society today. And Japan is arguably paying a steep price for keeping their blood oh-so-pure: it's a society frozen in tradition and fear, with an economy in what is essentially a 20-year recession. Making robots care for the elderly will just be another step in the dehumanisation of that society, indeed. It's the coup the grace for a generation that replaced social life with "being in the office" and love life with blow-up dolls and pornography.
- mc32 9y ago
  I think you're projecting western values on Japan. While we may see "dehumanization" they don't. Where you see a pornography fetish, they see it as an extension of their sexuality. For them it's progress. They have valued tradition and will continue to do so. It's not an ephemeral value they hold. Germany found a different path. It does not necessarily mean it's the one true path. And, long term, all societies will face the same issues. Some sooner, some much later --but face it they will.
  - matt4077 9y ago
    I'm pretty sure the need for social interactions with other people is somewhat central to being human, and not a trait of culture. That's why humans are often called "social animals". The suicide rate in japan being 3x European levels also seems to point at something being amiss, although that may indeed be an artefact of culture.

cylinder 9y ago

Common sense. A large population is going to be a big liability going forward. The Anglosphere hasn't figured this out yet.

mikekchar 9y ago

This is an opinion piece backed up with practically no information whatsoever. If you want to know about immigration policy in Japan, you need look no further Japan's ministry of foreign affairs website. For example, here are the categories where you can get a long term visa [0] You will notice there is a points system [1]. You need 70 points to get in. A degree gives you 10 points. A salary of ~$100K gives you 40 points. Being under 30 gives you 15 points. Having 5 years of experience gives you 10 points. N1 on JLTP gives you 15 points. I mean, it's ridiculous. And this is a 5 year visa with relaxed permanent residence requirements, ability to sponsor your parents, ability to work in any field (even jobs that aren't related to your skill set!!!). The list goes on! And if by some incredibly unfortunate circumstance you can't qualify for that, there are still over 10 categories where you basically only need a relevant university degree and a job offer for a 3 year visa. And if that isn't enough, you can start a company in Japan with about ~$50K and sponsor a business visa for yourself. My wife is Japanese and I'm here on a spousal visa. The application process took 1 week and was free. I am also eligible for relaxed permanent residence status. Seriously, compare this to your home country and then come back and tell me that Japan doesn't want immigration. Now if you want to know why Japan doesn't have a lot of immigration, it's because it is difficult for foreigners to live here if they can't speak Japanese and/or they can't accept Japanese culture. But as far as the government is concerned, the red carpet has been rolled out for a long time. If you have an established company in many foreign countries and wish to open a branch office in Japan (so that you can transfer people here), the government will even give you free assistance! [0] - http://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/visit/visa/long/index.html http://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/visit/visa/long/index.html [1] - http://www.immi-moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/pdf/point_calculation_forms.pdf http://www.immi-moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/pdf/point_calculat...

zcbenz 9y ago
What's more, if you get 80 points, you can apply for permanent residency after staying Japan for only 1 year.
jpatokal 9y ago
Japan's primary problem, though, is not a lack of skilled professionals (although as someone involved in hiring bilingual IT professionals there, I can assure you that's a problem too), but a lack of unskilled/low-skilled workers to work in agriculture, nursing, etc. And Japan is not at all keen on this type of immigration. As a simple example, Japan invited a bunch of Filipino nurses to work in Japan for a while, and they could stay if they completed the Japanese national nursing exam... in Japanese: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/pinoyabroad/253140/13-pinoy-nurses-pass-tough-japan-nursing-exams/story/ http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/pinoyabroad/253140/13-pi... Surprise surprise, the pass rate was 8%, and many of those who passed have returned home: http://news.abs-cbn.com/global-filipino/04/13/16/some-filipino-health-workers-turn-backs-on-opportunities-in-japan http://news.abs-cbn.com/global-filipino/04/13/16/some-filipi... Instead, there's ever-increasing abuse of various "trainee" and "language student" visa programs to cycle in and out what amounts to indentured labor, with zero prospects for actually staying in the country: http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/travel/welcome-to-the-worlds-worst-internship/news-story/eeda395f79c84f4afde4744837724505 http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/travel/welcome-to-th...

0xbear 9y ago

This explains a lot of recent moves by SoftBank.

ericdykstra 9y ago

Here's a more in-depth look at the issue of immigration vs automation as it relates to Japan, from 2 Japanese economists: http://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/economy/pt20141030182705.html http://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/economy/pt2014103018... My commentary with support from that article follows: A country with the population of Japan has no chance of maintaining a higher absolute GDP than countries with multiples of their population and more land to expand population. A policy to try to maintain their status in the world in terms of GDP is just silly. If, however, Japan is more interested in the well-being of their population than some sort of international power-play, then this is the route to go. Population growth has no correlation to GDP per capita, so what's the point of increasing immigration of low-skilled workers? The upside is minimal, and the potential downside is unknown and unbounded. I've been living in Japan for a little over 2 years now, and haven't talked to anyone who is worried about the long-term prospects of Japan's economy. There are structural changes that can and probably should be made, as outlined in the link above, but the country is not on some death-spiral like a lot of Western media would have you believe. Is Japan a magical land of far-advanced technology, delicious food, safe and clean cities, beautiful countrysides, and amazing public transportation? Actually, yes; the "far-advanced technology" part just doesn't extend to mass-market consumer electronics in the same way any more.

rdtsc 9y ago
> Is Japan a magical land of far-advanced technology Is the technology really that far advanced. I understand it was in the 80s maybe? None of the devices I have are made by Japanese companies. None of the software I use is developed in Japan primarily. My car is but that's about it, but I picked it because of reliability not because of high tech features.
- RandomInteger4 9y ago
  They have computerized toilets, so compared to what I see in most of the United States, I'd have to say yes.
- ericdykstra 9y ago
  Did you miss the part right after what you quoted? > the "far-advanced technology" part just doesn't extend to mass-market consumer electronics in the same way any more. Japan has leading technology companies in many industries that consumers just don't care about.

petre 9y ago

At least it's better than paying for immigrants that forced their way into your country as the Germans are doing now.

StudyAnimal 9y ago
Go away racist. Refugees need a safe place and germany needs fresh foreign blood to keep its society running. It's a win win. German children are going to take a long time before they start contributing and even then they will end up on Hartz IV before they accept a normal job.
- petre 9y ago
  We'll see if it's a win-win in 30 years. I personally think the Japanse model is better largely because it doesn't create social problems and cultural rifts in society. Also look at Switzerland and it's hardline immigration policies, which are really the result of a very healthy respresentative democracy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_immigration_referendum,_February_2014 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_immigration_referendum,_...
- nostromo123 9y ago
  Please do not post emotional beliefs as facts! Point 1: many migrants are not "refugees". Period. Point 2: ok, so German children will take a long time before they start contributing -- agree. What about some untrained analphabet with a different culture, who also happens to reject working with women? PS. Applying the label "racist" to anyone who disagrees with you has dulled its sting, I'm afraid :-)
- derping69 9y ago
  Instead of spending billions on refugees, 75% of whom still won't be working for years, why not spend that money to get Germans to have more kids? That would actually make sense, unlike importing unskilled labor that won't be needed due to automation. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/820480/Germany-migrant-crisis-refugees-long-term-unemployment-benefits-Angela-Merkel http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/820480/Germany-migrant-c...
- 9y ago

StudyAnimal 9y ago

"One small manufacturer insisted that immigration would dilute Japan's homogeneous society. " Good, that's exactly what Japan needs.