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I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build
by stupidcar 9y ago
I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set.
Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things are considered unthinkable and impossible only until someone finds a way to do them, after which they are retroactively declared obvious and inevitable.
Certainly, Tesla seem to have the right ideas: Electric cars are inherently simpler, mechanically speaking, than gasoline cars, and they're leveraging this further by reducing the options and variability on the Model 3 to the absolute minimum. They also hired Peter Hochholdinger from Audi as VP of production, and he is pursuing a pretty extreme form of Industry 4.0[1] — with everything in their production process being instrumented, automated and designed for easy replacement.[2]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0
[2] http://www.mljournal-digital.com/meleadershipjournal/october_2016?pg=1#pg1 http://www.mljournal-digital.com/meleadershipjournal/october...
- izacus 9y agoI'm not sure how realities of production get beaten by "ideas". Yes, Tesla has excellent design and approach. That won't help them magically build in volume. Or quality - even very expensive Model S cars aren't really a paragon of build quality in their class. Steve Jobs didn't promise production of 300mil iPhones in a year when they announced it.
- dwighttk 9y agoI don't know if you've heard of this little thing called The Law of Accelerating Returns. It's the law.
- Munkum 9y agoThe body on an electric car is basically no different to an ICE car. The floor is flatter and thicker to accommodate the battery pack and no need for a tunnel to accommodate the drive train, but other than that they're about the same. Tesla will almost certainly be using a combination of materials on the model 3; mild steels (cheap and cheerful, easy to press), aluminium (lightweight) and boron steels (strong). To join these materials you need a variety of techniques including resistance spot welding, aluminium RSW (altogether more difficult than steel because of the low melting point and high conductivity, and the fact that weld spatter sticks to the tip of the gun), riveting (for steel-Al joints), structural adhesives, flow drill screws, laser welds etc. All of these processes take serious time to calibrate and get right, and some are not all that robust (by high volume standards). There are many quality loops with a vehicle launch. The tooling needs to be proven out. Tools get shimmed relentlessly to make up for panel variations - panel quality can vary from batch to batch within a press run. This is especially true for mixed material cars. Believe me, these are not easy problems to solve and nothing I've seen and heard out of Tesla makes me think they've addressed any of these issues.
- danmaz74 9y agoWhat are you, an expert? We don't need no fracking experts here! How dare you challenge Tesla's PR announcements?? /s
- sqeaky 9y agoIs it possible that Musk has solved the problem, much like he or his employees have solved countless other tech problems, but Musk also knows what makes a sexy headline. Spot welding is hard to sell as flashy and new. If you can't do it on mars, it might not make good headlines.
- csours 9y agoSpot welding isn't hard, and wasn't claimed to be hard. Mixed Materials welding and joining is Hard (steel + aluminium/mild steel + high strength steel/ etc).
- 9y ago
- nradov 9y agoIf electric cars are so simple, why is the Tesla Model S so unreliable? https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095 https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095 Conversely, the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars. Yet it is mechanically complex with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, plus a CVT. So clearly engineering skill and manufacturing quality are bigger factors than the drive train.
- bendev_test 9y agoActually the Prius is less mechanically complex than a normal ICE-Car. The planetary gear is really simple and you don't need parts which are prone to wear like a high torque clutch or a complex gearbox. It is very reliable not despite but because of it's unique powertrain concept.
- arethuza 9y agoHow unreliable are ICEs these days - maybe its just me, but I've never had an engine problem in nearly 20 years of owning cars. Electrical problems, suspension problems, drainage problems - had all of them but never had a problem with the actual engine.
- Siecje 9y agoWhat is a drainage problem?
- dsfyu404ed 9y agoIt's when you realize your OEM sunroof leaks just like an '70s aftermarket sunroof but there is a drain that keeps you from noticing. Or there was a drain, now it's full of dirt and debris and doesn't drain very well.
- rubidium 9y agoWindow and trunk leaks
- arethuza 9y ago
- xorcist 9y ago> insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set A little context here might be good. The supposed disbelief of Blackberry was their carrier deal, as they themselves were not _allowed_ to sell phones with that feature set. It wasn't unthinkable to build it engineering-wise. (It was expensive yet with underwhelming features, a 2G phone with no apps at a time when even feature phones had 3G and apps for almost five years.) It was unthinkable business-wise. Those rules are easier to play hard and fast with. That there is unfounded criticism doesn't mean all criticisms is unfounded.
- mikeash 9y agoThe carrier deal was also a surprise to them, but if you believe this anonymous former RIM engineer they also didn't think it was possible to do what the iPhone did and still have acceptable battery life: "RIM was even in denial the day after the iPhone was announced with all hands meets claiming all manner of weird things about iPhone: it couldn't do what they were demonstrating without an insanely power hungry processor, it must have terrible battery life, etc. Imagine their surprise when they disassembled an iPhone for the first time and found that the phone was battery with a tiny logic board strapped to it. It was ridiculous, it was brilliant." https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2044389 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2044389
- sah2ed 9y agoThe iPhone is now a 10 year old device still selling like crazy. Thanks for the link.
- scott_karana 9y agoEven just using Tesla's numbers, it's unlikely they can ramp up production. They currently produce ~25K Model X and S per quarter, and they're having supply issues with battery packs. (see the other, recent thread on them) How in the world are they going to be producing 20K Model 3s by December, without cannibalizing their more profitable existing sales, and judging by their own previous growth rate and demand problems?
- maratd 9y ago> they're having supply issues with battery packs. They are building a huge factory for making battery packs in Nevada. That's already operational and will be more so by December. I imagine that's part of the solution.