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UK election: Conservatives lose majority

119 points by kefabean 9y ago

robk 9y ago
I hope the influence of the DUP in Belfast will at least put us on a footing to get immigration and borders sorted more quickly. Those factors will have the greatest effect on tech companies.
- theBobBob 9y ago
  Honestly the idea of the DUP having actual power in Westminster scares me. They are even more conservative then the Conservatives, especially about social issues.
  - isostatic 9y ago
    Not to mention the effect on the Bi peace process - the government is no longer neutral.
gideonparanoid 9y ago
I'm curious what the under-30s turnout is. I'm hoping this will inspire younger people & encourage them to engage more in politics.
- jamessimm 9y ago
  Hearing figures around 72%.
- arethuza 9y ago
  My 18 year old son was checking results at about 6 this morning - he voted for the first time for Labour and our constituency was a very narrow win for Labour over the SNP (about 250 votes). Pretty sure his reaction is "Wow this voting thing actually works" :-)
- thinkingemote 9y ago
  in my constituency in a university city and thus with many under thirties the total turnout was down seven percent. However Labour who the young tend to vote for got more votes.
- DanBC 9y ago
  72% of 18 to 25 year olds, which is much higher than normal.
da_n 9y ago
I'm hoping this puts a dampener or even better kills the May-driven Conservative manifesto pledge to "create a new internet".
- keithpeter 9y ago
  Watch out for Angela Rudd. She kept her seat (just) and could be a player.
  - matthewmacleod 9y ago
    Amber Rudd, rather than Angela - but I agree she's probably in the running if May resigns today.
    - davidgerard 9y ago
      Yes, but there's the minor problem she's even more out of her depth than May.
      - moomin 9y ago
        The conservatives have a serious problem right now: pragmatism is seen as being ideologically unsound. Look at the amount of briefing against Philip Hammond there's been. We're talking about a fairly competent, pro-Leave chancellor who has merely argued that potential downsides should be evaluated properly before charging ahead. And he's treated like a Traitor To The Cause. The problem being that Conservative MPs can be competent, moral and a true believer in Brexit. But it seems to be impossible to be all three. (The last sounds like a joke, but the exception may prove the rule: Stephen Phillips is definitely a true believer, and demonstrated his integrity by quitting his seat due to his horror at the way Brexit was being handled. Boris Johnson, on the other hand, is none of the above.)
        tonyedgecombe 9y ago
        Yes, I fully expect them to revert to their old ways and tear themselves apart over Europe.
tkyjonathan 9y ago
The result is quite ironic. It was supposed to be a 'bloodbath' for the conservatives and the extreme right. It looks like the left/hard left got the young out to vote. This is largely a vote against austerity and possibly also against globalisation. I would hope that this also translates to a more moderate brexit.
- gumaflux 9y ago
  Perhaps if Labour actually won own majority, sounds more like a very poorly run campaign by May. Complete lack of leadership. Just the single fact of shying away from debates. Great opportunity to put country before party now.
  - tkyjonathan 9y ago
    Not a labour supporter myself, but I would saying getting 31 more seats when you were expected to lose 20-100 (according to polls) is a victory. In addition to cons not having a majority, labour can now actually be a proper opposition.
alkonaut 9y ago
Not familiar with hung parliaments in the UK - normally there would be new elections if a majority government can't be formed - correct? So if LibDem/DUP and others refuse to even passively back either Labour or Conservatives then what?
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- deanclatworthy 9y ago
  Labour plus the others won't have a majority. And no other party would join with the tories at this point. So we are likely in store for another election, announced in the next couple of weeks.
  - alkonaut 9y ago
    If you were to guess - what would be the result of that? Hard to say I assume given we don't even know who will lead the Conservatives to that election, but do you think the Labour bounce was a one off thing or a trend that might see them take even more seats ?
    - querulous 9y ago
      hard to say. there was a narrative that corbyn was unelectable so a revote might get more buy in from his detractors and a more unified labour front theresa may also ran an absolutely terrible campaign and is personally unpopular so if the tories replace her they may do better next time around. it's hard to imagine the tories producing a credible leader on short notice though. most of the plausible candidates will want nothing to do with this mess and the second tier was mostly already rejected in favour of may last year
      - tonyedgecombe 9y ago
        Yes, leader of the Conservatives could be a surprisingly difficult post to fill.
peterlk 9y ago
What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.
- gideonparanoid 9y ago
  There's only two parties - Lib Dems & Greens - which promised a chance to revert Brexit, so I wouldn't expect it to be reversed. A softer Brexit is certainly on the cards though. This guide [0] from the BBC might help to understand how coalitions are formed. It's currently looking very tricky as the splits are crazy [1]. [0] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40209087 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40209087 [1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/jun/08/live-uk-election-results-in-full-2017 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/jun...
  - tonyedgecombe 9y ago
    I'm not sure, I suspect without a big majority May will find it difficult to keep some of the more rabid brexiters in her party under control. This election was always about the opposition within the Conservative party rather than Labour.
  - majewsky 9y ago
    > A softer Brexit is certainly on the cards though. The hardness of Brexit does not depend solely on the British government. The EU administration has a huge interest to make Brexit as hard as possible to avoid other member states from feeling the urge to leave.
- radicalbyte 9y ago
  The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions. For the next few weeks the winning party will negotiate with the other parties and try to create a coalition. If that fails they can either try a minority government or a new election will be called. This time around a coalition will be hard, the third party (Lib Dems) went into a coalition with the Tories in 2010. It almost destroyed them as a party so they won't do it again.
buserror 9y ago
To me it demonstrates the mastery of the ruling class at strategy. Just the ticket when you plan to want to rule something as complicated as a country! Seriously, I'm completely apolitical, but this one is probably one of the worst strategic blunder, ever. Oh, perhaps that and Cameron's brexit gamble. And it feels exactly like that; they are just gambling with the future of the country, repeatedly, with just petty objectives and personal power in play. And it's on pretty much every sides of the political landscape, it's feels to me (as an adult) like a watching a gang of 10 years old all trying to pull on a rag, only difference being that we live on the rag :-) Ok, rambling over. it's friday! :-)
- jansho 9y ago
  Weekend for me already!
- matthewmacleod 9y ago
  Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campaign as possible. I'm nervous about this being spun as a victory for the left, which I'm already hearing. It's more of a collapse of the Tories.
  - sqldba 9y ago
    How is it a collapse for the Tories when they still have 48.5% of the vote? It seems pretty good to me - though I'm not familiar with English politics. (Serious Q not attacking)
    - greglindahl 9y ago
      You might have noticed that the last US presidential election was not won by the candidate who had most of the vote. In a similar fashion, the key thing in the UK vote is individual district elections of members of Parliament, not the % of the overall vote.
PhasmaFelis 9y ago
Man, it's been a bad time for Conservative mandates, hasn't it? Wasn't the Brexit vote set up by a Conservative prime minister to prove that Britain wanted to remain in the EU?
- djaychela 9y ago
  Yes, exactly - two spectacular demonstrations of misjudging the room. Cameron paid with his job... and with the economy of the UK by the looks of it (yes, I live in the UK) after mis-judging the sentiment in the country (and telling us that he had got a 'new deal' with the EU, which was no such thing). The question is whether May will as well. She's saying 'no' to leaving this morning, but I don't see how her position is tenable, given that her 'strong and stable' concept is looking anything but after last night.
- querulous 9y ago
  no. michael gove and boris johnson tried to use euroskepticism within the conservative party to strip cameron of the leadership. the referendum was a play by cameron to shut down the euroskeptics and sideline johnson/gove none of gove, johnson or cameron thought the leave side had any chance of actually winning which is why all three of them bailed in the wake of the vote
  - timthorn 9y ago
    Gove and Johnson didn't stand side. They ran for the leadership, were defeated in various ways, then in the case of Gove was not chosen by May to be part of the Cabinet.
NamTaf 9y ago
edit: I know they're Unionist and eurosceptic, my understanding was that they were also for a single Ireland inside the UK and therefore would want a soft Brexit with an open Irish border. Thanks for correcting me on that however. ---------- There is no possible outcome here for the Tories that works towards a strong Brexit. The most likely coalition partner - the DUP - is all about a unified Ireland. Brexit is driving a major wedge into Ireland's border, so they will undermine that at every turn. Expect a revote in a couple of weeks. This outcome leaves no one in a position to govern strongly and that directly weakens the UK's position in Brexit talks.
- Newky 9y ago
  The DUP are the unionist party in the north of Ireland. They are against a united Ireland and were leave campaigners.
- Gupie 9y ago
  The DUP are unionists, they want to maintain the union with Britain, they are diametrically opposed to a united Ireland.
- DoctorNick 9y ago
  The DUP wants a wall built around northern Ireland, and wants a hard Brexit.
- kolp 9y ago
  The DUP is a unionist party and is diametrically opposed to a united Ireland.
  - flukus 9y ago
    Hypothetically, Would they accept a united Ireland as part of the UK?
    - arethuza 9y ago
      Why on earth would they want that - I don't think I've heard anyone even mentioning that idea. It's about as likely as the US deciding it wants to be a UK colony again.
PhasmaFelis 9y ago
The BBC feed says: "There's still no result in Kensington, west London, after two recounts. The Conservatives say they'll keep calling for recounts until they are denied any more, rather than concede, the BBC understands. As such, there's going to be a third recount, which is either going to take place this afternoon or tomorrow..." What's that about? On the face of it it seems so childishly spiteful that I feel I must be missing some strategic consideration.
- cjg 9y ago
  The record for the number of recounts in a UK general election stands at 7. Presumably if there is only one vote in it, it's well worth checking carefully, especially if recounts have different counts.
- flukus 9y ago
  > On the face of it it seems so childishly spiteful that I feel I must be missing some strategic consideration. Probably hoping one of the recounts comes out in their favor, at which point the other side will ask for a recount. Probably childish and spiteful also.
- RugnirViking 9y ago
  It actually occurred in the 1910s that there was 1 (One!) vote in an area. If its as close as that, there is significant benefit to recounting, as any result that tips the balance could tip the balance of some later votes given the tories lack of a majority
  - isostatic 9y ago
    1 vote in Exeter apparently, closer to now there were only 2 votes in east fife last night. Same in Winchester in 1997.
  - majewsky 9y ago
    You mean one vote difference? Because I find it hard to believe that voter turnout is that low. :)
PhasmaFelis 9y ago
What exactly does a "strong" versus "weak" Brexit imply?
- peterbraden 9y ago
  The potential for compromise
- matthewmacleod 9y ago
  Hard versus soft, in other words.
- querulous 9y ago
  common market access and freedom of movement, mostly. a hard brexit means (potentially) sacrificing the former to reject the latter. a soft brexit means conceding freedom of movement to ensure continuity of economy
- danmaz74 9y ago
  "Hard Brexit" = there is no deal and commerce between the UK and the EU revert to WTO rules by default.
- cm2187 9y ago
  The degree of access to the EU market. Which is effectively a tradeoff of access to market for sovereignty. Ie if you implement all EU laws (even though you have no say on them), you are EU compatible and will be given access. That's basically where Norway is. There are legitimate concerns of which is worse between loosing sovereignty over loosing the single market access.
- Someone 9y ago
  In the extreme: Weak = become like Norway or Switzerland; technically not in the EU, but bound to many of its treaties. Get you the benefits of, say, open borders, but also means paying for, say, saving the banking system and (almost) accepting whatever new rules the 'real' EU counties come up with (because it got exemptions for lots of EU regulations, Great Britain currently is almost less of a EU member than Switzerland, so it probably wouldn't go that far) Strong = break all ties with the EU. No open market, border controls everywhere (including the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland) but also no more payments to the EU, and having the freedom to, say, create import tariffs for German cars.
mtgx 9y ago
This election shows once again how terrible the FPTP voting system is. The Tories gained like 41% of the vote, but 48% of the seats. And this is a "better" outcome than it would've been in the U.S., where you also have other high arbitrary thresholds for third-parties, and the media virtually ignores them throughout the year-long election cycles. If the Tories had 41% of the seats (per the number of votes they received) and Labor 40%, it would've been much easier to form a majority with Labor. Now that seems unlikely, even though all parties should see that the Tories are in rapid decline in the voters' eyes, and they shouldn't attach themselves to the Conservative party in any way. It's a real shame the Tories killed ranked choice voting (alternative voting) in 2011. I would have still preferred a proportional representation system, but RCV would've been a definite improvement over FPTP, too. https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/6g6e5d/half_a_million_votes_for_greens_one_mp_you_wanna/ https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/6g6e5d/half_... It's also an even bigger shame that the Liberals in Canada decided to betray their voters and back-down on moving away from the FPTP voting system, which was one of their biggest campaign promises in the last election. With the risk of getting the Conservatives back in power in Canada, I hope the Canadian voters punish them hard in the next election (by voting NDP or Green), because such betrayal must not be rewarded. Canada could have finally moved away from the the undemocratic FPTP voting system, but the Liberals decided it may be better to stick to the undemocratic voting system if it means they can just switch places with Conservatives and dominate the government every 1-2 elections, as it happens in the United States with the Democratic and Republican parties.
- cm2187 9y ago
  Political unstability is pretty ugly. Some countries are good at forming coalitions and sticking to them (UK, Germany), some are absolutely terrible at that (France) and you end up with a new government every week. There are some merits to these systems which give a clear majority to the largest party over a fully representative but deadlocked parliament.
- Freak_NL 9y ago
  As someone who lives in a country with proportional representation as the basis of its electoral system the UK and US first-past-the-post voting system is really weird to observe. It doesn't seem very democratic that a party could get 20% of the popular vote nationally, but win no seats whatsoever.
matthewmacleod 9y ago
What an absolute mess. It really just again demonstrates that the country is divided right down the middle - inward vs. outward, young vs. old, nationalist vs. unionist. Nobody is coming out of this well, and I think it's virtually certain that there will be another general election in short order - but I don't really expect the outcome to be much different. I guess this is what happens when parties move apart like that. Corbyn's Labour have shifted quite far to the left, while the Conservatives have turned completely inward. There's a huge gap in the middle, and unfortunately our electoral system leaves little hope of filling it.
brownbat 9y ago
Didn't the conservatives face an impossible situation anyway? Hence all the resignations after Brexit? Is this, with the missed debates, possibly just an attempt to sit out a tough round of governing?
- EnderMB 9y ago
  I'm starting to wonder whether this is a possible ploy by the Tories to sit out of what could be a disastrous spell in politics, given that Corbyn will likely pursue Brexit if he becomes PM. I like Corbyn, and I think he's done tremendously with a great manifesto, but it still remains to be seen if he can lead a country. He's in his element in an election, as he's been a campaigner and an activist throughout his career. It might make more sense to ignore the DUP, and to allow Labour to try and form a progressive alliance, hoping that the economy will falter under Brexit and a coalition government.
HalfwayToDice 9y ago
Just a reminder, and I think it's getting lost here in the HackerNews demographic narrative.. but: The Conservatives Won The Election They will be ruling for 5 years, in a coalition with the even more conservative DUP. Labour/progressives are out of power for at least another 5 years. I know it's a bucket of cold water, but I think people aren't facing up to reality after Corbyn did much much better than expected. But he still lost.
- lyso 9y ago
  This is not going to be a five year parliament given the outcome. It might not be a five month parliament.
- matthewmacleod 9y ago
  I am similarly worried about the idea of spinning this as a left-wing win. Yes, much better than expected, but still a loss. That said, I don't expect a conservative government to stand at all. I'm putting my money on another general election this year.
- moomin 9y ago
  Corbyn most definitely lost, no argument there. But so did May. She set out to get a mandate for her vision of the future. She has none. Personally I think both of them should go. But May will struggle on due to the lack of viable alternatives, and Corbyn will continue to do ...whatever the heck it is that he's doing... because of low expectations.
- namlem 9y ago
  DUP has a softer stance on Brexit than the tories. Soft Brexit was their condition for forming the coalition.
nostrademons 9y ago
Someone closer to the UK than me mind explaining why SNP lost so many seats, including several that seemed pretty safe? I thought that Scottish nationalism was on the rise after Brexit, with many people there wanting to remain within the EU. Why the sudden shift to the Tories there?
- shanel 9y ago
  Leader of the SNP was pushing for a second referendum. Not a vote winner.
- nicoburns 9y ago
  Scottish nationalism is still somewhat popular, but a lot of people voting for the SNP last time weren't actually voting for Scottish nationalism, but for a left party, an area in which Ed Milliband's labour was deemed to be lacking. The shift to the Tories can explained by: 1. The popularity of Ruth Davies, leader of the scotrish conservatives. 2. The left vote being split between the SNP and Labour, allowing the conservatives to win under FPTP.
  - moomin 9y ago
    Ruth Davies is the only person who had an unabashedly good night. Well, her and Jean-Claude Juncker, who probably hasn't stopped laughing for the last 12 hours.
  - sofaofthedamned 9y ago
    Ruth Davidson has got to be the next Conservative leader, she's hardly put a foot wrong.
- matthewmacleod 9y ago
  Bit of a split - what I'm hearing is a bit of ballot fatigue with no appetite for a second referendum, combined with a laser-focused campaign from the Conservatives. It's worth bearing in mind that the 2015 result was a bit of an anomaly for the SNP to say the least. There was no way to move but down - I didn't expect it quite to this degree, but it does look like both Labour and SNP voters have gone blue.
vacri 9y ago
What is it with the Brits and an inability to do elections right these days. First they screw up the proportional representation referendum. Then the Scots mistakenly choose Remain (which wasn't an error at the time, but became one with Brexit). Then they Brexited, ironically because they want more control and accountability but rejected prop rep. And now this shemozzle. The rest of the world should take away the UK's voting rights until they promise to behave!
- ionised 9y ago
  As a Brit I have observed a large section of the population seem to suffer from an acute and decades-long case of Stockholm Syndrome. Much of the populace would prefer to suffer the indignities and gradual erosion of prosperity and civil liberties inflicted on them by their ruling classes than to risk an uncertain future on a potential change. They are comfortable in their mistreatment.
giomasce 9y ago
I am not British nor familiar with British politics. Is there any article that tries to explain the reasons behind what happened? Labours were something like 20% behind when the vote was called, but went close to winning yesterday.
- esolyt 9y ago
  May ran a bad campaign. Corbyn ran a better campaign, apparently.
- knopkop 9y ago
  Anecdote - There wasn't any particular party that I wanted to vote for. My vote was against the Tories in protest of having to give up essential liberties for a bit of temporary safety.
- IshKebab 9y ago
  May was never elected and had never really been scrutinised by the public until the election was called.
chris__butters 9y ago
this worryingly shows the huge divide in the nation
drinchev 9y ago
Last season of House of Cards is dangerously close to reality this time. In US, Trump might loose his presidency. UK is a mess, based on wrong political decisions. I still wonder "Who is Frank Underwood and what does he win from all of this". There is nothing unusual about a political scandal, but this time is obvious that the elite is quite power-driven and the society is nothing more than a voting variable in their equation.
Simulacra 9y ago
I would really have loved to have been a fly on the wall when this decision was discussed. Maybe someone from the U.K. can explain why, if you have a majority and outright control of Parliament, that you might necessarily need to extend that majority?
- parenthephobia 9y ago
  > outright control of Parliament Nobody has this! MPs are always free to vote their conscience, and sometimes they do. The Conservatives are not all of one mind about how to conduct Brexit. The aim was not simply to increase the Conservative majority, but to try to make sure that the new MPs making up that increased majority were on board with May's hard Brexit, so there wasn't a risk of a backbench revolt scuppering Brexit. The party used an "emergency procedure" for candidate selection that gave the party leadership more control than previous candidates. * http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/05/centralisation-and-chaos-inside-the-rush-to-select-conservative-candidates-in-time-for-the-election.html http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/05/central...
  - Simulacra 9y ago
    Well this is technically the case in American politics. Please, why then is it so important to have a greater majority in the U.K.? Why do you need to reach that line?

119 points by kefabean 9y ago

robk 9y ago

I hope the influence of the DUP in Belfast will at least put us on a footing to get immigration and borders sorted more quickly. Those factors will have the greatest effect on tech companies.

theBobBob 9y ago
Honestly the idea of the DUP having actual power in Westminster scares me. They are even more conservative then the Conservatives, especially about social issues.
- isostatic 9y ago
  Not to mention the effect on the Bi peace process - the government is no longer neutral.

gideonparanoid 9y ago

I'm curious what the under-30s turnout is. I'm hoping this will inspire younger people & encourage them to engage more in politics.

jamessimm 9y ago
Hearing figures around 72%.
arethuza 9y ago
My 18 year old son was checking results at about 6 this morning - he voted for the first time for Labour and our constituency was a very narrow win for Labour over the SNP (about 250 votes). Pretty sure his reaction is "Wow this voting thing actually works" :-)
thinkingemote 9y ago
in my constituency in a university city and thus with many under thirties the total turnout was down seven percent. However Labour who the young tend to vote for got more votes.
DanBC 9y ago
72% of 18 to 25 year olds, which is much higher than normal.

da_n 9y ago

I'm hoping this puts a dampener or even better kills the May-driven Conservative manifesto pledge to "create a new internet".

keithpeter 9y ago
Watch out for Angela Rudd. She kept her seat (just) and could be a player.
- matthewmacleod 9y ago
  Amber Rudd, rather than Angela - but I agree she's probably in the running if May resigns today.
  - davidgerard 9y ago
    Yes, but there's the minor problem she's even more out of her depth than May.
    - moomin 9y ago
      The conservatives have a serious problem right now: pragmatism is seen as being ideologically unsound. Look at the amount of briefing against Philip Hammond there's been. We're talking about a fairly competent, pro-Leave chancellor who has merely argued that potential downsides should be evaluated properly before charging ahead. And he's treated like a Traitor To The Cause. The problem being that Conservative MPs can be competent, moral and a true believer in Brexit. But it seems to be impossible to be all three. (The last sounds like a joke, but the exception may prove the rule: Stephen Phillips is definitely a true believer, and demonstrated his integrity by quitting his seat due to his horror at the way Brexit was being handled. Boris Johnson, on the other hand, is none of the above.)
      - tonyedgecombe 9y ago
        Yes, I fully expect them to revert to their old ways and tear themselves apart over Europe.

tkyjonathan 9y ago

The result is quite ironic. It was supposed to be a 'bloodbath' for the conservatives and the extreme right. It looks like the left/hard left got the young out to vote. This is largely a vote against austerity and possibly also against globalisation. I would hope that this also translates to a more moderate brexit.

gumaflux 9y ago
Perhaps if Labour actually won own majority, sounds more like a very poorly run campaign by May. Complete lack of leadership. Just the single fact of shying away from debates. Great opportunity to put country before party now.
- tkyjonathan 9y ago
  Not a labour supporter myself, but I would saying getting 31 more seats when you were expected to lose 20-100 (according to polls) is a victory. In addition to cons not having a majority, labour can now actually be a proper opposition.

alkonaut 9y ago

Not familiar with hung parliaments in the UK - normally there would be new elections if a majority government can't be formed - correct? So if LibDem/DUP and others refuse to even passively back either Labour or Conservatives then what?

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
deanclatworthy 9y ago
Labour plus the others won't have a majority. And no other party would join with the tories at this point. So we are likely in store for another election, announced in the next couple of weeks.
- alkonaut 9y ago
  If you were to guess - what would be the result of that? Hard to say I assume given we don't even know who will lead the Conservatives to that election, but do you think the Labour bounce was a one off thing or a trend that might see them take even more seats ?
  - querulous 9y ago
    hard to say. there was a narrative that corbyn was unelectable so a revote might get more buy in from his detractors and a more unified labour front theresa may also ran an absolutely terrible campaign and is personally unpopular so if the tories replace her they may do better next time around. it's hard to imagine the tories producing a credible leader on short notice though. most of the plausible candidates will want nothing to do with this mess and the second tier was mostly already rejected in favour of may last year
    - tonyedgecombe 9y ago
      Yes, leader of the Conservatives could be a surprisingly difficult post to fill.

peterlk 9y ago

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

gideonparanoid 9y ago
There's only two parties - Lib Dems & Greens - which promised a chance to revert Brexit, so I wouldn't expect it to be reversed. A softer Brexit is certainly on the cards though. This guide [0] from the BBC might help to understand how coalitions are formed. It's currently looking very tricky as the splits are crazy [1]. [0] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40209087 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40209087 [1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/jun/08/live-uk-election-results-in-full-2017 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/jun...
- tonyedgecombe 9y ago
  I'm not sure, I suspect without a big majority May will find it difficult to keep some of the more rabid brexiters in her party under control. This election was always about the opposition within the Conservative party rather than Labour.
- majewsky 9y ago
  > A softer Brexit is certainly on the cards though. The hardness of Brexit does not depend solely on the British government. The EU administration has a huge interest to make Brexit as hard as possible to avoid other member states from feeling the urge to leave.
radicalbyte 9y ago
The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions. For the next few weeks the winning party will negotiate with the other parties and try to create a coalition. If that fails they can either try a minority government or a new election will be called. This time around a coalition will be hard, the third party (Lib Dems) went into a coalition with the Tories in 2010. It almost destroyed them as a party so they won't do it again.

buserror 9y ago

To me it demonstrates the mastery of the ruling class at strategy. Just the ticket when you plan to want to rule something as complicated as a country! Seriously, I'm completely apolitical, but this one is probably one of the worst strategic blunder, ever. Oh, perhaps that and Cameron's brexit gamble. And it feels exactly like that; they are just gambling with the future of the country, repeatedly, with just petty objectives and personal power in play. And it's on pretty much every sides of the political landscape, it's feels to me (as an adult) like a watching a gang of 10 years old all trying to pull on a rag, only difference being that we live on the rag :-) Ok, rambling over. it's friday! :-)

jansho 9y ago
Weekend for me already!
matthewmacleod 9y ago
Honestly, I reckon May's decision was understandable. Great polling with a complex negotiation coming up - makes sense to establish a national convention consensus government and press on (regardless of that decision being a bad one or not). But she completely fluffed the campaign, to a ludicrous extent. She had a weak opposition and popular support, and seemed to make every possible attempt to run as poor as a campaign as possible. I'm nervous about this being spun as a victory for the left, which I'm already hearing. It's more of a collapse of the Tories.
- sqldba 9y ago
  How is it a collapse for the Tories when they still have 48.5% of the vote? It seems pretty good to me - though I'm not familiar with English politics. (Serious Q not attacking)
  - greglindahl 9y ago
    You might have noticed that the last US presidential election was not won by the candidate who had most of the vote. In a similar fashion, the key thing in the UK vote is individual district elections of members of Parliament, not the % of the overall vote.

PhasmaFelis 9y ago

Man, it's been a bad time for Conservative mandates, hasn't it? Wasn't the Brexit vote set up by a Conservative prime minister to prove that Britain wanted to remain in the EU?

djaychela 9y ago
Yes, exactly - two spectacular demonstrations of misjudging the room. Cameron paid with his job... and with the economy of the UK by the looks of it (yes, I live in the UK) after mis-judging the sentiment in the country (and telling us that he had got a 'new deal' with the EU, which was no such thing). The question is whether May will as well. She's saying 'no' to leaving this morning, but I don't see how her position is tenable, given that her 'strong and stable' concept is looking anything but after last night.
querulous 9y ago
no. michael gove and boris johnson tried to use euroskepticism within the conservative party to strip cameron of the leadership. the referendum was a play by cameron to shut down the euroskeptics and sideline johnson/gove none of gove, johnson or cameron thought the leave side had any chance of actually winning which is why all three of them bailed in the wake of the vote
- timthorn 9y ago
  Gove and Johnson didn't stand side. They ran for the leadership, were defeated in various ways, then in the case of Gove was not chosen by May to be part of the Cabinet.

NamTaf 9y ago

edit: I know they're Unionist and eurosceptic, my understanding was that they were also for a single Ireland inside the UK and therefore would want a soft Brexit with an open Irish border. Thanks for correcting me on that however. ---------- There is no possible outcome here for the Tories that works towards a strong Brexit. The most likely coalition partner - the DUP - is all about a unified Ireland. Brexit is driving a major wedge into Ireland's border, so they will undermine that at every turn. Expect a revote in a couple of weeks. This outcome leaves no one in a position to govern strongly and that directly weakens the UK's position in Brexit talks.

Newky 9y ago
The DUP are the unionist party in the north of Ireland. They are against a united Ireland and were leave campaigners.
Gupie 9y ago
The DUP are unionists, they want to maintain the union with Britain, they are diametrically opposed to a united Ireland.
DoctorNick 9y ago
The DUP wants a wall built around northern Ireland, and wants a hard Brexit.
kolp 9y ago
The DUP is a unionist party and is diametrically opposed to a united Ireland.
- flukus 9y ago
  Hypothetically, Would they accept a united Ireland as part of the UK?
  - arethuza 9y ago
    Why on earth would they want that - I don't think I've heard anyone even mentioning that idea. It's about as likely as the US deciding it wants to be a UK colony again.

PhasmaFelis 9y ago

The BBC feed says: "There's still no result in Kensington, west London, after two recounts. The Conservatives say they'll keep calling for recounts until they are denied any more, rather than concede, the BBC understands. As such, there's going to be a third recount, which is either going to take place this afternoon or tomorrow..." What's that about? On the face of it it seems so childishly spiteful that I feel I must be missing some strategic consideration.

cjg 9y ago
The record for the number of recounts in a UK general election stands at 7. Presumably if there is only one vote in it, it's well worth checking carefully, especially if recounts have different counts.
flukus 9y ago
> On the face of it it seems so childishly spiteful that I feel I must be missing some strategic consideration. Probably hoping one of the recounts comes out in their favor, at which point the other side will ask for a recount. Probably childish and spiteful also.
RugnirViking 9y ago
It actually occurred in the 1910s that there was 1 (One!) vote in an area. If its as close as that, there is significant benefit to recounting, as any result that tips the balance could tip the balance of some later votes given the tories lack of a majority
- isostatic 9y ago
  1 vote in Exeter apparently, closer to now there were only 2 votes in east fife last night. Same in Winchester in 1997.
- majewsky 9y ago
  You mean one vote difference? Because I find it hard to believe that voter turnout is that low. :)

PhasmaFelis 9y ago

What exactly does a "strong" versus "weak" Brexit imply?

peterbraden 9y ago
The potential for compromise
matthewmacleod 9y ago
Hard versus soft, in other words.
querulous 9y ago
common market access and freedom of movement, mostly. a hard brexit means (potentially) sacrificing the former to reject the latter. a soft brexit means conceding freedom of movement to ensure continuity of economy
danmaz74 9y ago
"Hard Brexit" = there is no deal and commerce between the UK and the EU revert to WTO rules by default.
cm2187 9y ago
The degree of access to the EU market. Which is effectively a tradeoff of access to market for sovereignty. Ie if you implement all EU laws (even though you have no say on them), you are EU compatible and will be given access. That's basically where Norway is. There are legitimate concerns of which is worse between loosing sovereignty over loosing the single market access.
Someone 9y ago
In the extreme: Weak = become like Norway or Switzerland; technically not in the EU, but bound to many of its treaties. Get you the benefits of, say, open borders, but also means paying for, say, saving the banking system and (almost) accepting whatever new rules the 'real' EU counties come up with (because it got exemptions for lots of EU regulations, Great Britain currently is almost less of a EU member than Switzerland, so it probably wouldn't go that far) Strong = break all ties with the EU. No open market, border controls everywhere (including the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland) but also no more payments to the EU, and having the freedom to, say, create import tariffs for German cars.

mtgx 9y ago

This election shows once again how terrible the FPTP voting system is. The Tories gained like 41% of the vote, but 48% of the seats. And this is a "better" outcome than it would've been in the U.S., where you also have other high arbitrary thresholds for third-parties, and the media virtually ignores them throughout the year-long election cycles. If the Tories had 41% of the seats (per the number of votes they received) and Labor 40%, it would've been much easier to form a majority with Labor. Now that seems unlikely, even though all parties should see that the Tories are in rapid decline in the voters' eyes, and they shouldn't attach themselves to the Conservative party in any way. It's a real shame the Tories killed ranked choice voting (alternative voting) in 2011. I would have still preferred a proportional representation system, but RCV would've been a definite improvement over FPTP, too. https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/6g6e5d/half_a_million_votes_for_greens_one_mp_you_wanna/ https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/6g6e5d/half_... It's also an even bigger shame that the Liberals in Canada decided to betray their voters and back-down on moving away from the FPTP voting system, which was one of their biggest campaign promises in the last election. With the risk of getting the Conservatives back in power in Canada, I hope the Canadian voters punish them hard in the next election (by voting NDP or Green), because such betrayal must not be rewarded. Canada could have finally moved away from the the undemocratic FPTP voting system, but the Liberals decided it may be better to stick to the undemocratic voting system if it means they can just switch places with Conservatives and dominate the government every 1-2 elections, as it happens in the United States with the Democratic and Republican parties.

cm2187 9y ago
Political unstability is pretty ugly. Some countries are good at forming coalitions and sticking to them (UK, Germany), some are absolutely terrible at that (France) and you end up with a new government every week. There are some merits to these systems which give a clear majority to the largest party over a fully representative but deadlocked parliament.
Freak_NL 9y ago
As someone who lives in a country with proportional representation as the basis of its electoral system the UK and US first-past-the-post voting system is really weird to observe. It doesn't seem very democratic that a party could get 20% of the popular vote nationally, but win no seats whatsoever.

matthewmacleod 9y ago

What an absolute mess. It really just again demonstrates that the country is divided right down the middle - inward vs. outward, young vs. old, nationalist vs. unionist. Nobody is coming out of this well, and I think it's virtually certain that there will be another general election in short order - but I don't really expect the outcome to be much different. I guess this is what happens when parties move apart like that. Corbyn's Labour have shifted quite far to the left, while the Conservatives have turned completely inward. There's a huge gap in the middle, and unfortunately our electoral system leaves little hope of filling it.

brownbat 9y ago

Didn't the conservatives face an impossible situation anyway? Hence all the resignations after Brexit? Is this, with the missed debates, possibly just an attempt to sit out a tough round of governing?

EnderMB 9y ago
I'm starting to wonder whether this is a possible ploy by the Tories to sit out of what could be a disastrous spell in politics, given that Corbyn will likely pursue Brexit if he becomes PM. I like Corbyn, and I think he's done tremendously with a great manifesto, but it still remains to be seen if he can lead a country. He's in his element in an election, as he's been a campaigner and an activist throughout his career. It might make more sense to ignore the DUP, and to allow Labour to try and form a progressive alliance, hoping that the economy will falter under Brexit and a coalition government.

HalfwayToDice 9y ago

Just a reminder, and I think it's getting lost here in the HackerNews demographic narrative.. but: The Conservatives Won The Election They will be ruling for 5 years, in a coalition with the even more conservative DUP. Labour/progressives are out of power for at least another 5 years. I know it's a bucket of cold water, but I think people aren't facing up to reality after Corbyn did much much better than expected. But he still lost.

lyso 9y ago
This is not going to be a five year parliament given the outcome. It might not be a five month parliament.
matthewmacleod 9y ago
I am similarly worried about the idea of spinning this as a left-wing win. Yes, much better than expected, but still a loss. That said, I don't expect a conservative government to stand at all. I'm putting my money on another general election this year.
moomin 9y ago
Corbyn most definitely lost, no argument there. But so did May. She set out to get a mandate for her vision of the future. She has none. Personally I think both of them should go. But May will struggle on due to the lack of viable alternatives, and Corbyn will continue to do ...whatever the heck it is that he's doing... because of low expectations.
namlem 9y ago
DUP has a softer stance on Brexit than the tories. Soft Brexit was their condition for forming the coalition.

nostrademons 9y ago

Someone closer to the UK than me mind explaining why SNP lost so many seats, including several that seemed pretty safe? I thought that Scottish nationalism was on the rise after Brexit, with many people there wanting to remain within the EU. Why the sudden shift to the Tories there?

shanel 9y ago
Leader of the SNP was pushing for a second referendum. Not a vote winner.
nicoburns 9y ago
Scottish nationalism is still somewhat popular, but a lot of people voting for the SNP last time weren't actually voting for Scottish nationalism, but for a left party, an area in which Ed Milliband's labour was deemed to be lacking. The shift to the Tories can explained by: 1. The popularity of Ruth Davies, leader of the scotrish conservatives. 2. The left vote being split between the SNP and Labour, allowing the conservatives to win under FPTP.
- moomin 9y ago
  Ruth Davies is the only person who had an unabashedly good night. Well, her and Jean-Claude Juncker, who probably hasn't stopped laughing for the last 12 hours.
- sofaofthedamned 9y ago
  Ruth Davidson has got to be the next Conservative leader, she's hardly put a foot wrong.
matthewmacleod 9y ago
Bit of a split - what I'm hearing is a bit of ballot fatigue with no appetite for a second referendum, combined with a laser-focused campaign from the Conservatives. It's worth bearing in mind that the 2015 result was a bit of an anomaly for the SNP to say the least. There was no way to move but down - I didn't expect it quite to this degree, but it does look like both Labour and SNP voters have gone blue.

vacri 9y ago

What is it with the Brits and an inability to do elections right these days. First they screw up the proportional representation referendum. Then the Scots mistakenly choose Remain (which wasn't an error at the time, but became one with Brexit). Then they Brexited, ironically because they want more control and accountability but rejected prop rep. And now this shemozzle. The rest of the world should take away the UK's voting rights until they promise to behave!

ionised 9y ago
As a Brit I have observed a large section of the population seem to suffer from an acute and decades-long case of Stockholm Syndrome. Much of the populace would prefer to suffer the indignities and gradual erosion of prosperity and civil liberties inflicted on them by their ruling classes than to risk an uncertain future on a potential change. They are comfortable in their mistreatment.

giomasce 9y ago

I am not British nor familiar with British politics. Is there any article that tries to explain the reasons behind what happened? Labours were something like 20% behind when the vote was called, but went close to winning yesterday.

esolyt 9y ago
May ran a bad campaign. Corbyn ran a better campaign, apparently.
knopkop 9y ago
Anecdote - There wasn't any particular party that I wanted to vote for. My vote was against the Tories in protest of having to give up essential liberties for a bit of temporary safety.
IshKebab 9y ago
May was never elected and had never really been scrutinised by the public until the election was called.

chris__butters 9y ago

this worryingly shows the huge divide in the nation

drinchev 9y ago

Last season of House of Cards is dangerously close to reality this time. In US, Trump might loose his presidency. UK is a mess, based on wrong political decisions. I still wonder "Who is Frank Underwood and what does he win from all of this". There is nothing unusual about a political scandal, but this time is obvious that the elite is quite power-driven and the society is nothing more than a voting variable in their equation.

Simulacra 9y ago

I would really have loved to have been a fly on the wall when this decision was discussed. Maybe someone from the U.K. can explain why, if you have a majority and outright control of Parliament, that you might necessarily need to extend that majority?

parenthephobia 9y ago
> outright control of Parliament Nobody has this! MPs are always free to vote their conscience, and sometimes they do. The Conservatives are not all of one mind about how to conduct Brexit. The aim was not simply to increase the Conservative majority, but to try to make sure that the new MPs making up that increased majority were on board with May's hard Brexit, so there wasn't a risk of a backbench revolt scuppering Brexit. The party used an "emergency procedure" for candidate selection that gave the party leadership more control than previous candidates. * http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/05/centralisation-and-chaos-inside-the-rush-to-select-conservative-candidates-in-time-for-the-election.html http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/05/central...
- Simulacra 9y ago
  Well this is technically the case in American politics. Please, why then is it so important to have a greater majority in the U.K.? Why do you need to reach that line?