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Mary Meeker’s 2017 internet trends report [pdf]
- dang 9y agoWe changed the url from https://dq756f9pzlyr3.cloudfront.net/file/Internet+Trends+2017+Report.pdf https://dq756f9pzlyr3.cloudfront.net/file/Internet+Trends+20... to what looks like the canonical source.
- ice109 9y agothese are presumably slides from a talk. is the talk available?
- funwithjustin 9y agoAre you joking?
- ice109 9y agowhy would I be joking? you realize not everyone on the internet knows about all the things everyone else knows about right? this is my first introduction to this report.
- rckclmbr 9y agoShe puts out all the slides independently of talking about them. She will present a summary / rapidfire at Code Conference if she hasn't already. She has done this for a long time, it comes out every year.
- SREinSF 9y agoGenerally she presents this at the annual Code conference. Link contains video presentation https://www.recode.net/2017/5/31/15693686/mary-meeker-kleiner-perkins-kpcb-slides-internet-trends-code-2017 https://www.recode.net/2017/5/31/15693686/mary-meeker-kleine...
- erehweb 9y agoThese have been coming out for a while now. Has anyone ever gone back and saw how previous predictions held up?
- cargo8 9y agoWell they're not really predictions so much as a phenomenal data set tracking the industry and consumer behavior in relevant markets. Draw your own hypotheses / conclusions :P
- ptero 9y agoIf I recall correctly she was one of the analysts pumping the internet stocks during the dotcom boom and bust. IIRC (and I might not) she was also advising select clients to sell in the early stages of the bust as she publicly kept issuing strong buy recommendations on the same stocks for general audience. Thus I tend to view her analysis with a lot of salt. Here is a first non-paywall link from 2001 on Mary Meeker and dotcoms. Make your own conclusions. http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/05/14/302981/index.htm http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive...
- palakchokshi 9y ago"Among the stocks she has never downgraded are Priceline, Amazon, Yahoo, and FreeMarkets--all of which have declined between 85% and 97% from their peak." Maybe she knew what she was doing?
- fensterblick 9y agoAmazon is still up almost 10x from its peak!
- criddell 9y agoFirst, as others have said, these reports are more about the recent past than the future. It is tempting to extrapolate though. I'd say many of the things she points out are valid for big cities and tech centers, but less so elsewhere. For example, restaurants built around delivery is a big deal around NYC, but not such a big deal in Albany or Scranton. What do you think of the current report?
- have_faith 9y agoGlobal internet ad spend superseding global TV ad spend finally. Ad-blocking as high as 26% in some countries (Germany) and rising. Looks like there is a battle for attention being waged, I wonder who will win...
- ice109 9y agoi don't understand mobile-adblocking. i thought you couldn't block mobile ads without rooting?
- lanius 9y agoI use uBlock Origin on Firefox for Android without root.
- uptown 9y agoMobile Safari supports content-blocking extensions. https://developer.apple.com/videos/play/wwdc2015/511/ https://developer.apple.com/videos/play/wwdc2015/511/ Presumably there's something similar on Android.
- unit91 9y agoLocal VPN-based solutions do the job without root. Check out AdClear, Adguard, etc.
- schoen 9y agoIs there maybe an ambiguity between "blocking mobile ads in apps" and "blocking web ads in a mobile browser"? The former might require lower-level tampering, while the latter might just require using a mobile browser that blocks ads or can run extensions.
- PKop 9y agoNot on iOS, presumably since Apple isn't making their money from advertising. They would have no reason not to sell the feature of "better user experience" from blocking ads / trackers. I use https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/purify-block-ads-and-tracking-browse-in-peace/id1030156203?mt=8 https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/purify-block-ads-and-trackin...
- amoorthy 9y agoMeeker's reports have, over the years, made several simple yet powerful conclusions such as when I first read the mismatch of % time spent by device vs. % of ad spend on device. I don't know if she was the first to observe this but it made an impact. That said, the overall report lacks in several respects. (1) It has an agenda e.g. on the positive value of immigrants (I'm an immigrant and strongly believe in the value of immigration but her "analysis" is selective data to prove a pre-existing point). (2) Relying on industry data. I saw numerous slides purporting to the future of advertising, supplied by firms who stand to benefit from these changes, e.g. Pinterest and Google. These ideas may be right but we should at least admit that they are not objective. (3) 355 slides is an absurd volume and suggests that she could not, or would not, refine to what's actually important. The net effect is that her best points will get lost in a sea of nonsense. (4) I'd rather she went over past year's reports to see where her trends did not hold up and why so we can understand other forces at work and all be smarter for it.
- moduspol 9y ago> I saw numerous slides purporting to the future of advertising, supplied by firms who stand to benefit from these changes, e.g. Pinterest and Google. Yeah. Similarly, slide 190 showing 90+% of cloud applications in use not being "enterprise ready", per Netskope: a company that exists to sell SaaS security software.
- pdog 9y agoOver three hundred pages and no mention of Bitcoin, Ethereum, or the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) phenomenon in this report.
- Eerie 9y agoThese are not global trends, but marginal developments.
- bredren 9y agoWhat is the milestone for crypto currencies that allows them to cross from marginal development to internet trend?
- wiremine 9y agoGood question. One way to vet this would be to count two things: 1. What percentage of the population uses crypto currency on a regular basis (maybe once a month) 2. What percentage of vendors use it. That is a B2C view of the world, and might not be correct.
- wslh 9y agoWhy marginal? The market capital of the cryptocurrency scene in in the scale of the numbers shown in the presentation [1]. [1] https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/ https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
- mxschumacher 9y agospeculation is running rampant, so market caps don't tell you that much. What is more interesting are transactions (e.g. of the non-speculative type), end user products that solve actual problems. I agree that there's a lot of promise in these various Blockchain technologies, but real world impact remains minimal.
- wslh 9y ago
- paulsutter 9y agoThis presentation has little interesting information, maybe internet and mobile innovation have peaked? Over the years I've always been fascinated to read her internet trends report, and this is the first time it feels tired. Important to understand the trends in China for sure, but few surprises overall.
- garysieling 9y agoI thought the slides comparing business app development and mobile games were interesting
- leggomylibro 9y agoY'know, it's weird. I was just reading an article about how our economy is investing strangely little amounts of capital in innovation, R&D, etc etc. Instead, employment is fairly healthy and productivity increases are starting to be eclipsed by wage growth. What is going on?[1] I think that the author's most powerful point is his final one: "The U.S. economy’s creative-destruction engine is broken." People aren't moving around to where the jobs are as much as they used to. They're not moving between jobs as much as they used to. They're not creating many new businesses, and they're certainly not creating new industries. Technology holds so much promise, but there's an extremely severe dearth of capital. And I say that at a time when investors are supposedly looking high and low for places to invest their money. Well, I say that this is what happens when you consolidate too much; there's nothing left to invest in, and no way for new players to enter unless one of the bloated, festering incumbent market-shoggoths finally bites it. That's where we're headed if we don't start to break up our economy's local behemoths. Or at least if we don't start empowering individuals more. If people made enough money and had the legal freedom to pursue their dreams in their off hours, more of them would probably be inclined to do so. [1]: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/so-where-are-all-those-robots/528666/ https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/so-wher...
- adventured 9y ago> maybe internet and mobile innovation have peaked? In my observation that notion gets thrown around in large batches about every 3 to 5 years consistently over the last 20+ years re the Internet & Web. Then crypto currencies take off. Or mobile via smartphones hits. Or ecommerce takes off. Or social takes off. Or search gets drastically better and good content becomes easier to find, spurring a boom in its creation. Or SaaS takes over. Or streaming media starts crushing old media in tv, movies, music, etc. - ten years ago Netflix was a $1 billion market cap DVD distributor and Spotify barely existed. Or cloud computing - and thousands of follow-on services - finally becomes cost effective & accessible, then everyone moves to adopt it. And then AI becomes cheap, accessible, and distributed everywhere. And then... Internet & mobile innovation is in fact about to accelerate.
- jasonsync 9y agoMary meeker sold out? The report is padded with (paid?) name drops.
- anjneymidha 9y agolol maybe we should have charged given the sheer time/energy it takes to put this together... but nope, any companies we mention usually are there because they're doing something actually interesting or leading in their field tbh...whether they're small companies (allbirds), public (amzn) or somewhere in between (unity, etc)
- JauntTrooper 9y agoSo over the past 6 years average daily time spent on mobile devices went from <30 minutes --> 3+ hours a day while laptop/desktop/other connected devices remained flat. That's almost 20% of a waking day. Staggering. I wonder if it actually replaced anything or if it's predominantly multitasking, like watching tv became tv + phone, or people listening to Spotify/Pandora/podcasts instead of the radio.
- 11thEarlOfMar 9y agoSpeaking for myself, Verizon went to unlimited data and I went to 100% Spotify for music. 2 hours+ daily, up from basically zero. Face time sessions are fairly frequent for the kids, 30 minutes at a shot.
- Swizec 9y agoDoes that mean in a few years we'll stop looking at "time on devices" because it's a useless metric and have "what do on devices" buckets? I mean if I'm watching netflix on web/mobile that should count as TV watching time not as internet/smartphone time. Because who (with acces to on-demand video) even watches broadcast TV anymore?
- k-mcgrady 9y ago>> Because who (with acces to on-demand video) even watches broadcast TV anymore? A lot of people (obviously), myself included. Usually as a time wasting activity. Unfortunately no on demand service really competes with the channel surfing use case yet.
- harry8 9y agoI remember Ms Meeker from dot-com-bomb v1.0. The most likely answer to your question is Ms Meeker's numbers continue to be as evidently fraudulent as ever. Some people just fail upwards. Anyone believing such information and using it to buy something is the fool who fully deserves to be parted from their money. Check the sources, they're mostly investment bank and accountancy consultancy sales documents. They aren't audited and apparently there are no adverse consequences for lying like a rug in such things,
- phkamp 9y agoDid anybody but me notice that neither the word "privacy" nor "encryption" or "cryptography" appear in the 350-some slides?
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- traek 9y agoI don't see why you would've expected it, it's not like any of those things are particularly trendy.
- jacquesm 9y agoI believe that was the point.
- jshen 9y agoShe mentioned that users don't like having their data collected for advertising. Apparently you did a word search but didn't actually read the material.
- collinmanderson 9y agoThere's a slide about what companies people would trust with their healthcare information. There's also data about WhatsApp popularity and usage.
- brentis 9y agoNot so much as a mention of bitcoin or virtual currency.
- sandGorgon 9y agoInteresting facts: - Voice: Twenty percent of mobile queries were made via voice in 2016. Alexa is leading the way into voice commerce. - India and China are the only 2 countries that get a full section each - China is the benchmark for FinTech. $5T plus in mobile payments 90% of that driven by 2 companies. Lowest txn rates in the world - 355 M internet users in India second only to China in size. Digital initiatives focused by govt. India is leapfrogging in Mobile, Identity, Bandwidth and Payments.
- jpatokal 9y agoThese used to be a highlight of the year, but this year's kinda falls flat. Even some of the stats are absurd: "94% of all cloud apps are not enterprise-ready per Netskope" (p190) What does that even mean? Apparently that you should pay Netskope lots of money to fix that right up for you: https://www.netskope.com/resources/netskope-cci-audit/ https://www.netskope.com/resources/netskope-cci-audit/
- briandear 9y agoIt actually begs the question: what does enterprise ready actually mean? The "enterprise" can mean many different things: HIPAA, PCI, etc, depending on industry/functionality.